Ryan Indictment
Initial bit up at The Political State Report
More later--been a bit swamped this week.
archpundit 12/17/2003 1:48:13 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Winner of the Simon Eulogy Sweepstakes
While I don't want to treat the death of a great man as a joke, it is true that some of the eulogies in op-eds are boiler plates and some really capture the essence of the person being eulogized. I thought that many were quite good this time with Kass being one of the best. Even a bit better is Rich Miller's weekly column which has a unique take on Simon. Given taste varies widely, I'll defend the choice by saying I had a Grandmother much like Rich's father and so I relate to his point better. My Grandmother never voted for Simon, but she did respect him more than most other 'socialists'. And yes, she is rolling over in her grave at one of her grandkids--actually several. I'm the only one that votes in every election so while she may not approve of my choices, they will be tormented forever in the afterlife for every election they missed.
For the 1990 election I remember a friend, in our obsessive youth, all of a sudden noticing that Paul Simon wanted to spend more money on social programs than we generally trusted the government to do (a relative notion compared to more conservative readers). To me this was an odd objection simply because, well duh, Paul Simon was very liberal. I pointed out his support for balanced budgets and I believe the friend voted for him. But the discussion was strange because I had never realized how much I had bought into Paul Simon's legend. This disturbed me that I had bought into a public persona. Later, in a fit of realizing what I should have long ago, it dawned on me that it wasn't just a public persona, but a truly decent human being.
Paul Simon, dad explained back then to his completely astonished sons, was honest. Unlike most politicians, dad said, you could trust Simon's word. Barely out of high school, Simon bought a newspaper and used it to rail against the mob and its political allies in the Metro East. He had real guts, dad said. Simon eventually owned a string of newspapers throughout southern Illinois, demonstrating a considerable business savvy, which my father admired.
I've always found it astonishing that a staunch conservative and Dillard Republican like my father would have so much respect, even reverence, for one of the most liberal Democratic Senators this state has ever produced. But dad's opinion helped me to understand that Simon's voting record wasn't why voters gave him two terms in the Senate and would have gladly given him as many as he wanted.
It was the fact that voters believed they were electing an honest, decent, intelligent, thoughtful man to represent them to their nation's highest legislative body. It wasn't about sound bites, or good hair, or the latest wedge issue. It was, instead, about the pride in knowing that they were sending one of their state's very best citizens to Washington, DC. They trusted him to do the right thing, even if they didn't always, or usually, agree with him.
My grandmother did vote for one Democrat I think, but that was before I was born. It turns out that the Republican Sheriff arrested my father for some sort of weapons violation when my father shot a peeping tom who turned out to be said sheriff's cousin. Today, the entire process would have been different, but in rural McLean County in the 1960s, my Dad was within his rights and that signalled the final straw for that Sheriff's political career. Or maybe that was the primary where he was thrown out--if that is the case, she never spent more time in the booth than to punch the Republican straight ticket.
Miller's father is voting for Dean now, perhaps showing a similar trajectory that Goldwater followed. As he aged Goldwater moderated his views on several issues. The most hysterical was his gruff take on gays in the military--it doesn't matter if a soldier is straight, it matters if they can shoot straight. The most important being his realization what Glen Canyon damn did to the nature of his beloved Arizona. The most practical being taking on pricing in the cable/satellite business that opened up competition in such services.
My grandmother, on the other hand, is just shaking her head at me for my likely vote for Dean. Of course, at least I'm voting.
archpundit 12/12/2003 3:21:08 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
WGNU On-Air Letters
YasonYackey learns what WGNU is like, with two letters responding to complaints about Earl "white supremacist" Holt.
WGNU has some decent hosts who are interesting if you are into talk radio and it does some of the classic radio moments by being so free form. That said, many of the on-air folks are bonkers. Read the letters and you'll see what I mean.
archpundit 12/12/2003 10:07:23 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Denying A Federal Judicial Appointment=Slavery
Well in Leader La-La land that appears to be the argument. So the next time there is a Democratic President and they appoint a liberal African-American or Latino any opposition will be based on their race and not ideology, right?
I didn't think so.
Really this whole line of argument needs to be declared dead by a corrolary to Godwin's Law:
Godwin's Law prov. [Usenet] "As a Usenet discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one." There is a tradition in many groups that, once this occurs, that thread is over, and whoever mentioned the Nazis has automatically lost whatever argument was in progress. Godwin's Law thus practically guarantees the existence of an upper bound on thread length in those groups. However there is also a widely- recognized codicil that any intentional triggering of Godwin's Law in order to invoke its thread-ending effects will be unsuccessful.
In this case making ridiculous arguments that compare a fight over ideology to slavery should just be ruled as forfeiting the argument.
archpundit 12/10/2003 4:06:55 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Chutzpah
Spitting on the grave of not yet buried Paul Simon, are the Rosemont and minority investors who are whining that they only got their investment back with a small percentage of interest.
Here's a small lesson in capitalism--if you invest in a corrupt enterprise you risk losing your investment. A stunning feature of capitalism is that the state let's business fails if it is inefficient or it breaks the rules and is penalized.
Emerald executives agreed two years ago to sell the license and give all the profits from the sale to the state after state gaming regulators accused the company of failing to disclose alleged organized crime connections of some Emerald shareholders. Ms. Madigan insisted those shareholders and any Emerald executives accused of wrongdoing should not receive their money back.
If you want to invest in gaming, make sure your partners are clean. If you can't verify that, invest elsewhere. Risk is an inherent part of any investment. As it is, the investment should be null and void. The company that entered into a contract with the State of Illinois violated the law and should have to forfeit the asset of a gaming license as a penalty. Instead, Lisa Madigan has brokered a deal to let investors essentially break even. While that bargain is not perfect, Madigan was wise to move the process along and avoid costly court battles. However, if investors insist the State pay them back and hold up the sale of the license in court--screw 'em and terminate any right to the license.
archpundit 12/10/2003 3:57:39 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Police Stories
Are the name of the game at St. Louis Coptalk this week.
Go read the Legends threat at Coptalk also Funny Roll Calls and Legends; cont
The will amuse and terrify you.
archpundit 12/10/2003 1:30:14 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Speaking of the East Side
The problems in District 189 continue. Yesterday, the Belleville News-Democrat reported that six demoted administrators will maintain their salaries in their positions as teachers and desk job administrators. The longer story does point out that if they stay at those jobs during the next year they will be returned to the level of pay for the positions. The good news here is that the District is holding principals and special ed administrators accountable for results.
archpundit 12/10/2003 1:04:20 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Synergy Alert
For those in the St. Louis Metropolitan Region:
(shamelessly stolen title from Eric Zorn)
I have an article on the absurd complaints about the suspension of site-based management in the SLPS in the Arch City Chronicle. Full story is only available in dead tree edition. Think of old grandmother's warnings about shacking up if you wonder why.
For those looking for a great Christmas gift, consider the ACC and The CommonSpace membership together for the fabulous price of $60
archpundit 12/10/2003 12:47:36 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
A Terrible Way To Return
is an article in memoriam to Paul Simon at the Political State Report
archpundit 12/10/2003 11:48:06 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Horrible, Horrible News
Paul Simon passed away today due to complications from heart surgery. He'll be greatly missed.
archpundit 12/09/2003 3:22:10 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Back This Evening
Suffering from sinus problems...
archpundit 12/08/2003 12:29:58 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
First Time Here?
Well, I'm about to take the Holiday weekend off. I have two twin daughters that are far more fun than this (and for the first time I get to brag about them--see here)
But for those visiting for the first time, ArchPundit is a site devoted to Illinois and National Politics. I'm a partisan Democrat and a grad student working on his PhD in Political Science. Beyond that, do a google search--when I mentioned this previously some wanted me to remain pseudonymous because they enjoy me just being the writing on the page.
For the most part, that will continue. From time to time I may comment more particularly on issues I have expertise than I have in the past, but there won't be many changes for veteran readers.
There are two related sites. The first is Blog Saint Louis which focuses on St. Louis and Missouri politics and urban educational issues, a particular passion of mine.
The second is a site for the Illinois Senate Race that is not being updated right now. It will be with the creation of a new family of sites at Typepad.
I also write for The Political State Report on Illinois politics. I've been a bit lax there lately, but I plan on adding more there in the near future. I'll be adding commentary to the coming Jeff Smith for Congress Blog very soon as well. Jeff is a good friend and I urge those of you in the 3rd District to learn a bit more about him. Since I know some other campaigns check in here, I have no intention of bashing other candidates and quite like the field--though I reserve the right to make fun of Russ if he puts up anymore pics like the last one I pointed out.
I also have two other features and perhaps a personal blog about to come on line as well. Both are more humor related. One is just displaying the words I receive every day from a particular public official, and the other is an inside joke. Take a look around and come back if you enjoy.
I always appreciate tips so pass them on to archpundit@yahoo.com. Be sure to clarify whether you want to remain anonymous and whether I can use the e-mail verbatim. I respect privacy absolutely.
Some of the more popular posts over the last year include:
Rochell Moore extending a Biblical Curse to me
Earl Holt's letter taking issue with my labeling of him as a White Supremacist
The post he objected to which was also linked from Joe Conason's column in Salon
And for those who read the story in the RFT on the SLPS, I posted Bill Haas' letter to Bill Roberti that suggested Roberti and Marsal were having an affair right after receiving it.
I also seem to have hit on some manueverings by Pat Quinn to jump in the Illinois Senate Race. What is still unclear is why he was using Mike Kelleher as bait.
A general article on Saint Louis Public School reform. This article spurred the Biblical Curse being extended to me.
archpundit 11/27/2003 12:33:24 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
On a More Serious Note
Why does Earl Holt even matter? Isn't he just a marginalized moron who has been driven from the public eye?
That is true to an extent. However, Holt is part of that nasty side of politics that has hidden behind code words and obscured their true feelings. The first hint should be anyone who would associate with the modern version of the White Citizen's Councils--now the Council of Conservative Citizens.
There are legitimate debates over policies that affect race and we should have frank discussions about race and related issues. But Cobb points out an issue in race relations that whites usually don't grasp (being white I have my blindspots as well,
I'm going to indulge a little and poke whitefolks in the eye for a minute. But I'll be more specific and poke whitefolks from St. Louis who voted during the 80s. Every once in a while blackfolks get accused of being paranoid about race. But then somebody like say, Mark Fuhrman, gets outed and blackfolks say, where the hell were all you good whitefolks whan this person got power?
There are reasons for African-Americans to be paranoid and recognizing that is vital to a serious discussion. Are African-Americans overly paranoid? I'm sure sometimes they are, but when people don't listen it adds to the paranoia. So the next time race comes up in an integrated place take the time to listen to the concerns. Listen hard. White folks simply don't face the daily insults that many African-Americans do. And being angry about those insults or Earl Holt isn't an invitation to bring up Al Sharpton or Jesse Jackson to try and create moral equivalency. It's an invitation to listen to a friend or potential friend.
When people race bait, don't use the excuse that some African-American did it so it is okay. Take race baiters to task. Force them to face consequences instead of making excuses that others do it.
Holt is out of public life besides his rantings on WGNU and the CofCC web site, but many have supported him and his allies in the past. Perhaps they were allies because they did not think Holt was that bad. If that is the case, they shouldn't have a hard time disowning him and the Council of Conservative Citizens. Make them do it.
archpundit 11/26/2003 11:59:10 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Right at Night Transcript--A Spade is Indeed a Spade
When Earl first e-mailed me, several asked whether it was for real, so I confirmed it on Earl's radio show. Below is the transcript with Don being me (I used a different name):
Earl: Don, welcome,
Don: Hey, what are all of these liars doing talking about you on the internet? I don't get it.
Earl:Oh, they, well, What can you do?
Don:What, what did the guy say about you?
Earl: Oh he's uhh...Oh, well, it's a long story. But Earl got kind of liquored up the other night. A friend found, put my name in a search engine and found a website that was ripping us for our efforts to try to reform the Saint Louis Public Schools. And I think I had just about had enough of that. So I wrote him a real poignant e-mail and I probably used the n-word about maybe twenty times to many times. Anyway, uh, they (hassled) me since. That doesn't bother me. I don't care, I'm used to that stuff. I, you know, on hang up calls, that kind of stuff doesn't matter. (Unintelligible keeps deleting it. just Ladue)
Don: What what, what what are they saying about you, I don't get it.
Earl: Well, It's just that I used all this bad language and, I, and I said some very unflattering things to them, what I thought about them. And, uh, I was stupid enough to, uh, put my home telephone number on there too. and uh
Don: Ohhhh
Earl: And I, uh dared them to print, to, to put the letter on the web page which they apparently have. So, (nervous laughter)I have quite a following now.
Don: All right
Earl: Yeah, well anyway. I didn't pull any punches, baby. I guess you could say I called a Spade a Spade.
Second guy: Don't call him (something) Earl for nothing
Don: All right, I was just curious.
Earl: All right, thanks Don, I appreciate it.
archpundit 11/26/2003 11:22:46 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Saint Louis Public Schools Charging Admission for Meetings?
Well, no, but the RFT suggests it, though in the blog world, Sophorist got there first in comments.
That said, it is one of the best articles written by regular media on the changes and the only one that captures the flavor of the meetings.
archpundit 11/26/2003 11:10:50 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Integration & The RFT
The Riverfront Times covers Earl's outburst in a fine article by Mike Seely.
Tom Spencer, recently retired from his fine blog is mentioned as well providing a little color commentary.
Interesting aspects of the article include WGNU's management which seems to be taking it very seriously. Other than that was the amazing reaction of Gordon Baum, Executive Director of the Council of Conservative Citizens, who said,
"The strong language shows a lapse in civility but doesn't paint him as a white supremacist," says Baum. "It doesn't sound like Earl. He must have been imbibing when he did that. As far as the rhetoric is concerned, I don't go along with that."
What the hell would paint him as a white supremacist then? I'm curious. When one describes an entire race as savage and brutish, wouldn't that qualify as inferior to another race? Or is the logical conclusion not supposed to be reached? Whatever.
And BTW, in regards to integration....I do live in an integrated area--my Census block group is 35% African American and my block is probably majority black. Now, admittedly, Earl lives in a black census tract, but I am familiar with having black neighbors and friends. Perhaps it is Earl's stunning personality that is his problem...
archpundit 11/26/2003 10:57:12 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Very Fabric of Our Society
The General addresses the horror of what gay marriage will reek on our society
Also another blog desperately in need of being added to the Blog Roll
archpundit 11/25/2003 2:39:35 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Who is ArchPundit?
The question is to be answered in tomorrow's Riverfront Times. May not be up until Thursday for those who can't pick up a deadtree edition.
archpundit 11/25/2003 2:25:11 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Bush Ballot Brouha
I've been swamped getting the new site up and ready, but Dan Johnson-Weinberger covers the fight over getting Bush on the ballot. As does Jeff Trigg.
I am not thrilled with redistricting, but Dan gets at the issue pretty well. I am not happy with Dems trying to avoid fines, but isn't that to be expected when you try and circumvent the law for electoral gain? The other side does it too.
Dan desperately deserves to be on the blog roll and he will be on the new site.
archpundit 11/25/2003 2:20:40 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Good Deed for the Holiday
Forwarded on behalf Chris Krummenacher. If you're interested in helping out the family whose southside house burned down this past week and who were then subsequently robbed, Chris is willing to help facilitate. Should you feel so inclined to donate funds or physical items, contact Chris(chrisk@firestreamww.com) and he can put you in contact with the appropriate folks.
"You've probably seen the story about the Colenburg family, whose house caught fire and who had to run though that fire and toss his kids and himself out a third floor window to safety. If you saw today's paper, you saw that they got buglarized on top of it.
"I got a hold of the bank that is collecting monetary donations for that family and found that another family is collecting physical items (toys, clothes, eletronics, etc...) for the Colenburg family. I was just hoping you might pass this note along and ask folks that if they want to donate anything to get in touch with me and I can either the contact the person collecting this stuff or give them their phone number."
Please consider contributing if you are able.
This occurred in Saint Louis for readers outside of the region.
archpundit 11/25/2003 2:12:45 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
SB 101 Status
The bill to add sexual orientation as a suspect classification stalled, here is the deal from a source who was in Springfield:
Obama worked hard for this group and got Meeks to agree to be vote 30 or 31. Not easy for Meeks to do, but he did it.
Hynes took a walk. Senator Maloney would do whatever Hynes asked him to do, and so far Maloney is a whole lot of no. Same with Viverito. If Madigan/Hynes asked Viverito to jump on, don't you think he would?
Lending credence to the concerns about how hard Hynes will follow up on gay rights bills. More to follow.
archpundit 11/25/2003 2:04:26 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Rainbow/Push Rally Discontent
From a reader:
Update from a Rainbow/Push Rally
There was an incident at the Rainbow/Push rally with Barack Obama, Joyce Washington and Blair Hull in attendance (with other dignitaries - most notable Carol Mosely Braun, Bobby Rush, Danny Davis and Jesse Jackson).
In the middle of several speaches a group of angry folks started shouting
in a bull horn "when are you going to let us speak!"
They were allowed to go forward and spoke their piece. Basically they said that black leaders had sold out the black community for their own political power. They (settled down) for a while and then basically disrupted the event. When Danny Davis and Bobby Rush walked up the BOOED them standing on the stage in front of the TV cameras. Things finally got calmed down a bit (although they were still on the stage frequently booing people).
The police were getting very nervous.
archpundit 11/25/2003 1:54:33 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Reminder
Remember, Fridays from 10-12 on WGNU Earl and Gordon Baum of the Council of Conservative Citizens host the Right at Night--a veritable hate fest. Streaming audio is available as is toll free call in for those outside the area:
314-454-0400 or
1-877-920-WGNU!
archpundit 11/21/2003 9:43:22 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
From the Inbox
From the St. Louis CofCC Site
Dr. Deval Patrick
Several years ago, the magazine Heterodoxy ran an article about Dr. Deval Patrick, the negro who replaced Alan Bakke at the University of California-Davis Medical School as a result of its ?Affirmative-Action? program. Mr. Bakke sued California?s Board of Regents in what eventually became a landmark Supreme Court Case, Bakke v. Board of Regents of the University of California.
Dr. Patrick managed to graduate from Cal-Davis? medical school, and became a plastic surgeon in the Los Angeles area. To date, Dr. Patrick has at least one kill to his record.
It seems that Dr. Patrick performed liposuction upon a woman patient in his office, who later developed a severe infection and died from it. When the woman upon whom he performed the liposuction returned to his office a few days following her surgery -- rather than take her to the emergency room of some hospital -- instead, Dr. Patrick had his "nurse" (i.e., girlfriend) take this patient to his own house, whereupon she died. He was obviously trying to hide her condition from medical authorities by treating her, "privately."
You see, serious infections following liposuction had previously occurred with at least two other patients of his, and not only were these two patients in the process of suing him, but Dr. Patrick?s license was under review by the state at the time of his ?kill.? He has since lost his medical license.
There should be a law requiring any advocate of Affirmative Action (such as Teddy Kennedy) to use only black surgeons, airline pilots and attorneys who participated in an affirmative action program at their respective graduate schools.
Earl P. Holt III
From the e-mail:
Deval Patrick is not a physician; he is a former Assistant Attorney for Civil Rights and is still deeply involved in civil rights law. The physician he is referring to is the late Dr. Patrick Chivas, and his account of the events are only half true. There is also little evidence that he was admitted instead (not replacing) Bakke. A rather amusing mix-up.
For someone with an IQ of 130, this is probably the dumbest error that could have easily been checked.
In fact, one can find all about Deval Patrick rather easily
In fact, after the e-mail I tracked down what appears to be the story Holt is talking about at Front Page Magazine. I present that story as a reference, not as an endorsment.
Another fine reader points to this pile of excrement. The reader mail is special.
archpundit 11/20/2003 5:26:28 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
When I'm Happy To Be Wrong
I'm befuddled how the Governor thinks this better protects officers, but that is a side issue---The State of Illinois, counter to my prediction, has passed a sweeping reform of the Death Penalty. Kudos (ed. props are for late night beer induced posts) to State Senators Barack Obama and John Cullerton who did much of the heavy lifting on the bill. While I'm adamantly opposed to the death penalty, this is a wonderful step forward.
archpundit 11/20/2003 10:09:01 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
How Likely Are More Posts Today?
I have a feeling the blog is going to be overloaded, it is, ummm..let's say early, and I'm over the average daily hits already....
archpundit 11/20/2003 1:58:45 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Props to Cruel Site of the Day
They pretty much shut down the site again today, Cruel Site fo the Day is a riot for those not familiar with it.
If nothing else, the caption for yesterday captured Earl:
If you call former St. Louis School Board member Earl Holt a white supremacist, he'll set you straight: "I honestly pray to God that some nigger fucks, kills and eats you and everyone you claim to love!"
I'll be posting again today assuming I can get access to the site.
archpundit 11/20/2003 1:39:51 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Props To Blogstudio
Blogstudio.com has done a great job trying to handle the traffic over the last couple days. The reaction to Earl has been far greater than I thought, but Blogstudio has done a fantastic job keeping the site up given the difference between usual traffic and traffic over the last couple days.
If you are looking for a blogging service that is extremely easy to use or a hosting service think about them. They are inexpensive and do a fantastic job.
As many of you may know, I am moving to TypePad soon. It isn't due to inadequate services as much as
1) white supremacists or other nutjobs who seem to swamp the service
2) I'm in the middle of service levels---I want both a lot of flexibility and easy use. Typepad provides that. However, Blogstudio provides easy use, hosting for the very advanced, inexpensive service, and a high tolerance for those who attract nutjobs. My problem comes in I don't want to set up my own site, but I do want to control comments and other issues. For the vast majority of bloggers who don't attract the Earl Holt's of the world, Blogstudio would be great for you. And they are very price competitive.
archpundit 11/20/2003 1:33:19 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Do I Dare
Unfortunately I read Eriz Zorn's take on the Massachusett's Supreme Court Decision declaring a ban on gay marriage unconstitutional so I have to site (ed. that's cite to your moron) him yet again this week. I absolutely believe marriage is a religious decision and such any sort of prohibition on adults is a violation of the religious freedom. I'm not sure that such a bold step is the quickest way to get there.
Zorn makes the point here:
I was among those who fretted that former Gov. George Ryan's mass commutation of death sentences would harden the hearts of legislators and set back the cause of capital justice reform in Illinois by years if not forever.
I do believe I outfretted him though, with this post at the Political State Report which could not have been more wrong.
So let's hope we are both wrong again. BTW, what is the Governor doing about the nondiscrimination based on sexual orientation bill? Anyone?
archpundit 11/18/2003 2:05:23 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Endorsement Watch: Da Speaker
In a dog bites man story, Illinois House Speaker and Chair of the Illinois Democratic Party endorses Dan Hynes. Coming from the South Side of Chicago with Dan's father, Thomas, this is unsurprising.
In the category of organization is tough to beat, the tagline in the endorsement from the campaign says:
The Democratic Party of Illinois State Central Committee is not expected to endorse in the March primary. Madigan serves as the chair of the central committee. In addition to Speaker Madigan, Hynes has received the endorsement of 85 of the state?s 102 Democratic County Chairman and over 600 elected officials and party leaders at all levels of government.
Dan Hynes is in a tough fight, especially with the IFT endorsement of Obama which reverberates through the field, but organization means he'll be in it to the end.
archpundit 11/18/2003 1:50:48 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Oh My
We'll be getting back to more normal stories, but Atrios keeps finding stuff that is amazing
The fiction which is interdependency has a prolocutor in the congregation of Moloch. His name is George Soros. No other single person represents the symbol and the substance of Globalism more than this Hungarian-born descendant of Shylock. He is the embodiment of the Merchant from Venice. His public reputation as an astute currency speculator is generous, while his skills as a manipulator and procurer of pain and suffering is shrouded in the footnotes of the financial journals. Claiming to be a philanthropist, his record is literally one of being a patron for indentured enslavement.
Updated: The GOPUSA took it down, it's now available at this site
archpundit 11/18/2003 1:42:34 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Alterman Gets Letters
Via Atrios
Not quite Earl Holt, but Alterman gets a doozy today....
Name: Anne Thompson
Mr. Alterman,
As an American citizen and consumer of both print and television media, I have become increasingly concerned over what I perceive to be a completely liberal-biased slant as well as unquestioning support for both the brutal policies of Israel as well as the Jewish faith. Judaism is an incomplete religion and our country is NOT a ?Judeo-Christian? nation. America was founded on the principles of Christianity and Christianity ALONE.
To give any credence to the Jewish faith is to say that it is a true faith, which it is NOT. To give unquestioning support to the state of Israel, despite its horrid brutality, is criminal. Ariel Sharon has spent the last 40 years deceiving the Lebanese Christian community, committing mass genocide, lying to the American and European public and, in general, behaving worse than any tyrant currently recorded in history.
To support Judaism and the state of Israel, in its current form, is disgraceful. Allow me to explain why the Jewish religion is an incomplete religion and why Jews MUST convert to Christianity AT ALL COSTS.
The incompleteness of Judaism:
1. Judaism believes in an eye for an eye, there is no such thing as forgiveness.
2. Judaism consistently promotes mass genocide, while Christianity promotes isolating hostile elements within an opposition group and removing those elements, but leaving the group intact and converting them to Christianity.
3. Judaism is an inclusive group, meaning that the religion does not proselytize nor does it accept outside membership. This essentially sets Jews up for inbreeding, which causes all sorts of neurological and degenerative diseases.
4. Judaism is suspicious and hostile of outsiders.
5. Judaism creates a group of people who are paranoid, isolated, inbred, and unforgiving.
What kind of life is this for anyone? Christianity is an open, loving, forgiving religion. Christianity does not submit to genocide of a group in which there exist bad members, but rather advocates the elimination of those bad members, specifically, while leaving the group intact and converting them to Christianity.
Christianity is superior to Judaism in many ways and Jews must and should convert to Christianity as soon as possible. To state that Judaism, in any form, is an acceptable type of worship to our Lord is deplorable. JUDAISM IS FALLACY!
The media?s ongoing support of this incomplete faith and its false tenets is an injustice to the world. America cannot and WILL NOT TOLERATE the ongoing atrocities committed by the Israelis, the Mossad, and the Jewish people. The Jews MUST CONVERT to Christianity IMMEDIATELY. The violence in the Middle East will go on for a thousand years if they are not converted. The ongoing tensions in American society will continue if the Jews do not convert. It is CRITICAL that Jews convert.
I thank you for your time and consideration and may God bless you and yours.
I believe Eric is Jewish. This letter reeks of the description Ani Difranco gives on her live album of a open mic night where some evangelicals sing a song about whether Anne Frank found Jesus.
archpundit 11/18/2003 1:37:14 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Speaking of Zorn
He has some excellent coverage of the Illini Mascot issue and especially a full response from Lisa Madigan concerning the Emerald Casino License Settlement, go check it out.
More on the Emerald issue later, but I think Madigan's defense of the settlement is a good explanation. She isn't happy and neither am I, but reality set in from the looks of it.
On the mascot issue--go far enough down on Eric's blog and one has to wonder whether the mascot was cover for the tuition increase.
archpundit 11/17/2003 10:13:04 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Getting Back to Normal...
After the most recent wingnut eruption sidetracked the normal content of the blog again, today should be back to the typical Illinois politics and national affairs obsession I have. But later, I have a day job and such.
In a show of good taste, the Trib wouldn't allow Eric Zorn to link directly to the letter. I don't blame them. I would probably have suppressed the letter but for two reasons. One, Holt was a school board member in Saint Louis. He and his allies came close to taking a Board Majority about a decade ago. I'm going to create a list of those articles on the new blog (it's coming) for easy access.
Second, I have blogged regularly on the Council of Conservative Citizens. Most recently was on October 15 (the day my hiatus started) with Haley Barbour's visit to the Mississippi Black Hawk Barbecue.
I think the letter accurately represents their views and as they have some influence, that is more influence than they should have. Holt claims he was drunk. I say he was honest. Despicable, but honest.
While racist wingnuts are a common topic here, a far superior blog for that sort of info is at The Temple of Democracy which is the go to place for all white supremacist related info. I have reservations about his Dean comments, but that is a minor quibble given the high quality of research he provides on neo-confederates.
I also have some audio clips, but I need to host them somewhere that can handle the bandwidth.
archpundit 11/17/2003 10:08:22 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
I Believe We Have A Recording
Fair use portions will be posted over the next couple days. The comparison to Tarzan was amazing as was the General's fine discussion of his member. I, on the other hand, couldn't stop laughing after they didn't even miss a beat when Gary complained about miscegenation. Perhaps I should leave such efforts to The General and Scoobie.
archpundit 11/14/2003 11:57:27 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
BTW, "Don From Saint Louis" Got Confirmation on the Letter
For a variety of reasons I thought it was him, Don got Holt to confirm he sent it--just to clarify.
I can't do what I'm suggesting for a variety of reasons, but Earl is a landlord and there is an EHOC testing program for Fair Housing Laws. It might be worthwhile for someone to contact EHOC and Channel 2 here in Saint Louis and suggest that Earl is perhaps a prime candidate for some testing. Wil Jordan, head of EHOC here, would enjoy that very much.
archpundit 11/14/2003 11:01:22 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Who is Doug from East Saint Louis
Just curious, drop me a note.
archpundit 11/14/2003 10:56:17 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hate Mail---Parental Advisory
The following e-mail I received is one of the most offensive bits of excrement to ever show up in my inbox. I debated even posting it, but given Earl was a school board member in St. Louis just a decade ago and there is a collective amnesia about how far over the top these guys were, here it goes. It contains multiple obscenities and the most offensive racial slur.
Hey Commie:
Imagine my chagrin when I used a search engine to find commentary about myself, and there was your shallow, dilettante, asshole self, labeling me a "white supremacist."
Being the shallow, nigger-loving dilettante that you are, you probably DO consider niggers to be your equal (who am I to question this?): Yet, unlike you and your allies, I have an I.Q. in excess of 130, which grants me the ability to objectively evaluate the Great American Nigro (Africanus Criminalis.)
The nigro is 11.5 % of the U.S. population, yet he commits in excess of 55% of all felonies (although felonies are UNDER-represented in the nigro community, where observing the law is considered "acting White!") Moreover, he (or should I say she?)accounts for 48% of all ADC recipients in the U.S. We have spent over $7 TRILLION on "Urban Welfare Spending" since the mid-1960s, (black economists Thomas Sowell & Walter Williams) and the nigro is still as criminal, surly, lazy , violent and stupid as he/she ever was, while his illegitimacy rate is 80% nationwide, and over 90% in the "large urban areas."
By the way, those of us who tried to end forced busing in St. Louis did so because it is a colossal waste and nothing more than a symbolic gesture that has seriously deprived every school district in Missouri that doesn't benefit from a deseg program : It has cost the state of Missouri $3.5 BILLION since 1983, (another $3.5 Billion in Kansas City,) yet, the nigro "scholars" bussed to county schools under deseg "improve less academically than every other category of student in the St. Louis Public Schools," according to the Federal Court- ordered Lissitz Study.
Also, you lying asshole, in the 2003-2004 school year, St. Louis spent $11,711 per nigger -idiot in the public schools, yet, half of all students test at the 20th percentile (or lower) on nationally-standardized tests. (If I were Emperor, I would forcibly hand over you and all your commie apologists for nigro under-achievement to White, working-class parents of public school students, and let them have their way with you...)
Some day, You sanctimonious nigger-lovers will either have to live amongst them ("nothing cures an enthusiasm for integration like a good dose of niggers") or else defend yourselves against them. My guess is that you are such a cowardly and pusillanimous lot of girly-boys, they will kill fuck, kill and eat you just as they do young White males in every prison system in the U.S. That's right: When defending this savage and brutish lot, you must also consider their natural ( or should I say UN-natural) enthusiasm for buggery!
I honestly pray to God that some nigger fucks, kills and eats you and everyone you claim to love!
Earl P. Holt III
4029 Shaw Blvd.
St. Louis, MO
63110-3621
P.S. I dare you to print this e-mail verbatim: You know as well as I do that most people know I speak the truth, and you are a liar and whore who takes to heart Lenin's dictum that "The first duty of the propagandist is to subvert the meaning of words."
=====
I'll stand by my comment that Earl is a white supremacist.
UPDATE:
As suggested in a note, here is what I originally wrote about Earl. Comments were a bit erratic early, but should be working now.
UPDATE II: Remember, Fridays from 10-12 on WGNU Earl and Gordon Baum of the Council of Conservative Citizens host the Right at Night--a veritable hate fest. Streaming audio is available as is toll free call in for those outside the area:
314-454-0400 or
1-877-920-WGNU!
archpundit 11/14/2003 10:02:17 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Fun Stuff
Via John Combest
Iraq won?t be helped by premature pullout
ahem, I swear, Saddam, this NEVER happens, you just REALLY turn me on...
archpundit 11/14/2003 9:50:55 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Zorn's Flooding hte Zone
which is good because I have a busy day---
The motion to consider the Chief's future has been withdrawn and will be reintroduced next summer
"Frances G. Carroll, the trustee who introduced the motion earlier this week, said she was withdrawing it because other trustees were upset at the short notice," said an Associated Press story.
Short notice?
This controversy has been around for well over a decade and discussed and studied to a fare-thee-well. There are no new arguments and there's no need for still more input. The only thing these cowardly trustees need time for is to find political cover.
Eric seems to think, as I said in my comments, that the impact of removing the chief won't be that great--I think he is correct.
Because I have so much respect for the University, I'd be surprised if its alumni base turned out to be this shallow and petty.
I will deprive this institution of financial support I would otherwise provide because its trustees differ with me on how best to respect the American Indian!!!
Well, there will be some people that shallow and petty, it won't be that big of a deal. As an institution of higher learning it could well be a wonderful way to teach about respect and diversity.
The Chief's days are numbered. It may not be next year, but eventually a white guy running around as a caricature of an American Indian won't be acceptable.
Eric also provides an interesting take on whether it should be native American or American Indian. I find all of the general terms difficult because they don't differentiate between those American Indians south of the United States that face very different issue. That said, I see the point about American Indian.
archpundit 11/13/2003 1:27:30 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Best Editorial of the Day
From the Trib AKA Back when we walked uphills both ways to the Hill...
The U.S. Senate has scheduled a filibuster for Wednesday night so senators can talk themselves blue in the face about who's to blame because Democrats won't allow some of President Bush's judicial nominations to come to a vote. We're not going to debate the merits of the issue today--of course every nominee should get a vote. This time, we'd rather complain about the wussy nature of this filibuster.
Time was when a Senate filibuster meant something. Senators were forced to stay up all night and had to keep talking until they were close to collapse. Remember that scene in the movie, "Mr. Smith goes to Washington"? Jimmy Stewart does collapse on the Senate floor.
But the senators of the 108th Congress aren't about to collapse from this effort. This filibuster has been carefully choreographed. It'll last 30 hours, from Wednesday evening through midnight Thursday. No senator will have to blabber on for 30 hours. The time is being split equally between Republicans and Democrats. A Republican will blabber for 30 minutes, then a Democratic senator will blabber for 30 minutes . . . you get the picture. The point of this exercise? Beats us. Even hot air ain't what it used to be.
archpundit 11/12/2003 10:24:56 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
More on the Chief
Eric Zorn points out the obvious if the Chief represented another ethnic group
Chief Illiniwek must go.
The University of Illinois should not "honor" American Indian culture in a way that would be unthinkable to "honor" African American culture, Jewish culture, Latino culture, Asian culture or just about any other culture.
No institution with an ounce of sensitivity would paint a white man in blackface and have him perform ceremonial tribal dances at sporting events in honor of The Fighting Africans, dress a gentile like an Orthodox rabbi and have him dance the hora at midcourt in honor of The Fighting Hebrews or otherwise attempt to pay such clumsy tribute to other peoples.
The problem is that the Chief isn't a clumsy tribute, it isn't a tribute to the Illini Tribe. It is college custom divorced of any meaning from the Illini tribe or any native American group.
As humorist Jim Mullen once wrote on the subject, "some people sure are touchy about being cheated out of their land, their culture and their dignity."
The land is gone, the culture is in shambles mostly--for those that have visited reservations--life isn't pretty. Can't we at least defend their dignity?
Admittedly, this isn't the worst case, the Washington Redskins run away with that, but it is not acceptable.
To bring up George Will's favorite example of how such issues are not just political correctness, around thirty years ago Pekin in Central Illinois still called its high school team the Chinks. Can you imagine a white student running around with eyes taped to appear narrow and reenacting some sort of Chinese warrior? Societies evolve, the premier public educational institution in the State of Illinois should be leader in that evolution. Let's find a way to celebrate the Illini Tribe, not make them caricatures.
archpundit 11/12/2003 10:17:51 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Retire the Chief
In the absurdities of the modern world, the continued use of a caricature to represent the Illini tribe with a foolish moron at U of I athletic events bothers few. Fighting Illini itself isn't offensive, but some idiot running around the field acting like a chicken with his head cut off is not an appropriate representative of Native American culture.
Why is there such attachment to such an obnoxious symbol? An obvious solution would be to involve the descendants of the Illini tribe in a discussion of how a mascot could honorably represent the tribe and the school.
archpundit 11/10/2003 11:12:49 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Winning Oberweiss Strategy
Pass out his pumpkin ice cream to voters....mmmmmmm...back in a minute.
archpundit 11/10/2003 10:16:51 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Trick Or Treat
Kristin McQueary frightens me with this thought
Maybe he bought it to commemorate Halloween ? a huge holiday at the Madigan household where the speaker and his wife spend hours doting on trick-or-treaters.
Da Speaker handing out treats? That truly sounds like a Haunted House.
archpundit 11/10/2003 10:15:18 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Embarrassing
So now that we have moved fully to the phase of the war where everyone wonders who has the damn plan, let's look back at my standard for the war being worthwhile.
The exception being smallpox. If we don't turn up evidence of a nuclear program and/or smallpox, this war was pointless. Nukes are the only real WMD and if he didn't have an active program (and I believe he did), containment would have worked just fine, thank you.
So pretty much, the war wasn't worth it. When I take Shrub's position and I'm wrong, it just hurts all the more.
I still believe we would have been in a war with Iraq eventually, but there is no excuse for not building up more international support for action given what we know now.
That said, there could be a legitimate defense of acting in good faith on bad information. Is that what the administration did? Yes and no. Yes, they thought there was more of a threat. But no on two counts. They pushed the edge of intelligence. More importantly, they didn't act with caution.
What does this mean? As I've long argued, the country would have been well served to follow Dick Lugar, Chuck Hagel, and Joe Biden's move to require the President to seek out more international support. I don't think that is a mistake Congress will be making in the future. For one, Dick Gephardt won't be there to undercut such efforts in the future.
Poor planning is especially egregious in a planning agency as Jacob Weisberg points out in one of his far too few columns since becoming editor in chief of Slate.
the big idea The thinking behind the news.
Occupational Hazards
How the Pentagon forgot about running Iraq.
By Jacob Weisberg
Posted Thursday, Nov. 6, 2003, at 9:44 AM PT
The shooting down on Sunday of a Chinook helicopter, which claimed more American lives than any episode since the fall of Saddam Hussein, confirms what the Bush administration has spent weeks attempting to deny: The occupation of Iraq is going badly.
It is not at all surprising that we've run into trouble over there. The difficulties we have faced, from looting to the lack of viable institutions, were largely to be expected from a devastated post-totalitarian society in a part of the world overwhelmingly hostile to the United States and its interests. What is surprising?amazing, in fact?is how unprepared we were for these problems. Much of the discussion in the postwar period was focused on the question of where those weapons of mass destruction went. An even more important question is how the Bush administration failed to prepare for what it knew was coming. How did the world's greatest military power plan the invasion of a country without also planning its occupation?
David Rieff's Nov. 2 article in the New York Times Magazine offers pieces of an answer. The neoconservative Iraq hawks inside the Pentagon?Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, and Douglas Feith?thought our troops would be welcomed as liberators and that the Iraqi National Congress could run the country for us (a view Gideon Rose demolished in Slate back in April). Wolfowitz, in particular, was known for his view that fixing Iraq would provoke a reverse-domino effect of democratization throughout the Middle East. Those who bought into this wishful thinking didn't want to hear about the potential problems.
Continue Article
The hawks' big mistake was not in thinking that optimistic scenario might be borne out. Their mistake?especially stunning because the Pentagon is essentially a planning agency?was not preparing for alternate scenarios that were, at the very least, equally likely. The neoconservative architects of the invasion seem not to have, at any point, seriously engaged the question, "What if things do not go the way we hope they will?" What if the Iraqis are glad to be rid of Saddam but not glad to have the Marines as neighbors? What if Ahmad Chalabi turns out not to be the next Vaclav Havel? The Pentagon spends hundreds of millions of dollars staging elaborate war games to help anticipate unexpected turns in battle. Somehow, it neglected to game out the postwar peace.
Is Iraq going as badly as the loudest naysayers? No. But it isn't as good as it should be with better planning of the operation and for the contingencies that have developed.
For those who heard McCain on NewsHour the other night, he made an essential point
SEN. JOHN McCAIN: Yes, and if we say we're withdrawing then obviously that sends another bad signal. I think we should not announce withdrawal. I think we should say we're going to do what it takes. We're going to find out where it is that we need more people.
We have got 130,000 troops there. At any time there's 30,000 of these on patrol -- of the 130,000 that are there -- because of this tooth to tail ratio that we call in the military. So we need more in that area, more active, more proactive and frankly, when Iraqi mothers are afraid to send their children to school, then I think that the bad people have attained a degree of influence, which is disturbing.
JIM LEHRER: Senator, you have gone public with this in the last few days. You have just repeated it and expanded on it here for us. Have you said this privately to President Bush or Vice President Cheney or Secretary Powell or Secretary Rumsfeld or anybody else in the administration?
SEN. JOHN McCAIN: When I came back in August, I made public statements about the need for more troops. I talked with Dr. Rice. I talked with Secretary Rumsfeld. I talked with Secretary Powell and Deputy Secretary Armitage about this and I was very public in my comments then. I was hoping that I was wrong. But in August, which was several months ago now, I said, look, unless we change this equation, then things are going to get measurably worse.
And, time is not on our side in these things of Jim. We have a habit to a degree of treating Iraq the same way we treated Japan and Germany. We should be treating them more like Italy and France as liberated countries rather than conquered ones.
More good stuff in his comments on the situation in Russia.
archpundit 11/10/2003 9:58:47 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Oh yeah, the must reads
Getting myself in a bit of a lather, I forgot the rest of the stories at the Capitol Fax
First, Exelon makes public their plan for rate hikes. Paging Pat Quinn--remember the one thing you were useful for was ranting about monopolies. Have someone take the muzzle off and remind G-Rod he is a Democrat.
In an amusing element of pot-kettle politics, the state GOP is proposing:
NEW "SHADOW" LANGUAGE EMERGES (excerpt) The Senate Republicans have unveiled new language to more clearly define what they call Governor Blagojevich's "shadow government." The SGOPs want to use the ethics bill to force the governor's unpaid advisors who work on legislation and other matters on his behalf to file economic interest statements.
The introduced version of the bill would require the disclosure of any "third party" contacts of a state board or commission on behalf of the guv or other elected official. The Senate Republicans would require that, in addition to the contact disclosure, the third party file economic interest statements.
Perhaps that could include the Mayer lawyers that each party utilizes free to analyze legislation? I mean, if you are going to go after the Guv, shouldn't the spotlight go out to all of the cockroaches in Springfield?
Three other stories are pretty self-explanatory. Though a particular one towards the bottom is a perfect example of what is wrong in Springfield,
CREDIT UNIONS FURIOUS During the spring session, Illinois credit unions were strong-armed into agreeing to a deal that increased their state regulatory fees by 50 percent. One of the arguments the governor's office used was that the banks would be whacked with a 100 percent fee increase during the rulemaking process. The credit unions could either swallow a 50 percent hike that was written into legislation, or suffer the same fate as the banks when the rules were written. The credit unions swallowed hard.
But, lo and behold, when the rules were published, the banks only suffered a 27 percent increase - about a quarter of the original amount, and half of what the credit unions were paying. Word is, the bankers informed the governor that if he went ahead with a 100 percent hike, they'd drop their state charters and become nationally chartered. The credit unions are hoping to roll back their fee hike during the veto session.
That story is appropriately from Halloween.
archpundit 11/10/2003 9:37:38 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Must Reads
Are over at the Capitol Fax.
The first up story is on Obama snagging the IFT endorsement. I'd heard rumblings, but I wasn't sure. The significance is it creates a hole for Hynes as Miller points out. But most importantly Illinois is an organization state. Organization (organ-I-zation in Hockey) wins in Illinois--it almost always has. Illinois is a state where people are bound by ties to some sort of political apparatus. Westerners and other goo-goo states have people who have moved in without any particular attachments, but the industrial midwest is overrun with attachments and nowhere as much as Illinois.
To win as a Democrat in the primary one has to have a block of votes locked up traditionally. Either you have unions (Hartigan), or party apparatus (Blagojevich), a network of activists (Netsch) or a combination of the sorts. Republicans have similar ties with the Christian Right taking up a new section of organized interest.
Candidates running as true outsiders don't do well. Al Hofeld is the most common example, but with the exception of Pat Quinn, organization wins (and he has a very loyal base--hell if I know why).
So the common wisdom has been that Comptroller Dan Hynes has the leg up on the field because he has the best organization. He has much of the Cook County machine lining up behind him with his father pulling in a lot of chits to line up regular party support and the unions forming two of the three necessary voting blocks out of about 5 key constituencies. In a split field, that should have been enough. For many, including me, I figured this would be a cake walk election for him. Organization wins.
But the organizations change both locally and nationally. The political earthquake consuming Dick Gephardt with the apparent AFSCME and SEIU dual endorsements is hitting Hynes as well. It isn't fatal so far, but it shows how the union landscape is changing. Hynes is locking up the industrial unions easily. But the service and teachers unions are looking around. Why? They don't have the same interests. Industrial unions are interested in protectionism and benefits--protecting what they have already. Service and other unions are interested in health care and reaching more workers--reaching out to more people.
But what is especially damaging to Hynes in this case is the split in unions goes to the guy with what was considered the second strongest organizationally---Barack Obama. The African-American vote is between 20-25% of the Democratic primary. As such any African-American candidate has a good lock on that vote in most years. Obama has strong ties to it with downstate A-As unified and strong support from the Jacksons around Chicago. He is slightly weaker given his fight with Bobby Rush and the Joyce Washington candidacy. Bagging the IFT gives him workers around the state and more of a base.
All is not lost for Hynes by any stretch of the imagination. He has the corrupt Jerry Costello operation around Belleville with a big push to Barigevic, the current county exec, into a judgeship and elect his homegrown apprentice--the current Mayor of Belleville into the County Executive spot. He has union might in Central and Southern Illinois and he has the south side white politicos pulling out the stops. He has a statewide office and name recognition.
If organization wins, then Hull should be toast right? I'm not so sure. First, he has millions to throw at this race. Second, he is playing to the party activist core and strategically picking up bits and pieces of coalitions. When there is a split amongst African-Americans he goes after Rush and others who have a bone to pick with Obama. When Hynes downplays health care (relatively so), he goes after activists and seniors. He hits the anti-war crowd hard and takes every shot he can at Bush. Contrary to many reviews, I think his commercials show a very personable guy--something he seems to be excelling at is retail politics. Is it enough in an organization state? If the vote is split, possibly. His biggest concern has to be to not turn off the more casual voters and depress turnout through an ugly campaign. He is going to need occasional primary voters who vote off media impressions more than organizational tie and have a split field.
Maria Pappas comes in with two big upsides. First, she has name recognition around Chicago. Second she is the natural heir to the women activist vote that Dawn Clark Netsch and Moseley Braun tapped previously. She's also likable. With good name recognition she is already taking on Hynes in early polls.
Chico should have a natural constituency in Hispanics. He does not, however. He supported Luis Guitierrez' opponent in a Congressional cycle and Luis hasn't forgotten. The regular Hispanic avenues are largely closed and instead he is relying on his connections in the legal and corporate world to fuel the run. It probably isn't enough. While his fundraising is remarkably good given his position, it isn't enough to compete against those with higher name recognition and more money.
So what does all this mean? It's a hell of a race. Of the four with the best shots, three of them have strong organizational support and I'd bet one of them wins--though a smart campaign by Hull might overcome that. Most surprisingly, Dan Hynes is in a tough race which most didn't expect.
So much for not much analysis.
archpundit 11/10/2003 9:27:15 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
I'm Back
So that was a bit longer than expected, but everything should be getting back to normal now.
Over the next week expect more links and tidbits from other places. I'm working on an upgrade to ArchPundit that will take it to a new site. While I love Blogstudio, I've outgrown it a bit. But let me say, if you are looking for a good basic service that can host or be a simple interface with little extra work, it is a great service.
I'm in the middle, I don't want to set up my own MT site and I want a bit more so I'm off to Typepad as soon as a I finish the sites. Along with the normal fare, I'll also be adding some fun side blogs and upgrading the Illinois Senate site that has languished as of late.
And as always, thanks to Armchairpundit for filling in. I greatly appreciate it.
archpundit 11/10/2003 8:47:45 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Well Since You Offered...One More Round On The Senate Race
Maria Pappas's impending entry to the Illinois Senate race for the dem nomination is nothing but bad news for Hynes. One of Hynes's remaining strengths was name recognition. The reason candidates work so hard to get name recognition as well as inform voters of their stands on the issues is that they are going for both the reflexive and the informed voters. On election day, a certain number of voters simply vote the name they know. Dick Mell loves to say that the reason Vallas did so well and almost beat his son-in-law for guv is that Vallas had more media hits in Chicago in the three years prior to the election than any other political leader, including the Mayor (which Mell says with relish).
Hynes, up until now, had the name recognition advantage, with Obama a close second, and Hull closing fast. Now with Pappas in, this wipes out Hynes's name recognition advantage in Cook County and does serious damage everywhere else. In this one category alone, she will, likely, out poll Hynes in Cook County and in the collar counties, which puts Hynes Obama, and Hull on equal footing in the name game.
(Now let's be clear, a baton twirling, beloved-dog carrying politician with a pheromone peddler as a campaign chair will, at least, provide comic releif, and I think that Pappas would be appalled, if she actually wins. What she wants, I think, is good positioning to run for Cook County Board President. But she also told an aldermanic powerhouse: "anyone but the kid.")
Money now becomes even more a factor. Rumors were circulating that Hull was re-thinking this race in light of recent polls. Nope. To counter them, he just plunked another $4 million into his hopper. Both Hull and Obama continue to play it smart against Hynes: build name recognition, educate voters, get a GOTV operation in place, and build a winning coalition. Both recognize that a portion of almost every voting block in every region is up for grabs. But what Hull has that the other don't is a very deep pocket to go after them all well. If this race comes down to who can cobble together a winning coalition, I think that this race will come down to Obama and Hull. Just a prediction.
It's been fun...although I wish that I had figured out how to create links and use other parts of this infernal Blog Studio better.
armchairpundit 11/03/2003 12:00:00 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
ummm...working on it
So I didn't make it back on Saturday, but I will be back this week. If you are wondering why--I'm a little bit over a year ahead of Kos times two and we've had a sick little girl.
That said, this week will be slow...why? A brand spanking new ArchPundit is in the works with bunches of new features.
Armchairpundit is welcome to carry on if he wishes, or not...but thanks again and more on that later. I was incredibly impressed by the posts over the last couple weeks.
archpundit 11/02/2003 11:39:23 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Briefly...Sue me too
I'm still on hiatus, but I couldn't resist the title change. Confused, go see Atrios' posting of a letter from Luskin's lawyer.
I've already had a biblical curse put on me, so what the hell can a trial lawyer do? Satire is protected speech. See you Saturday and thanks again to Armchairpundit
archpundit 10/30/2003 2:48:52 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
More On The California Fires
Forgive the parochial nature of this post (and the earlier one on the same subject).
When I am home in San Diego visiting family, I often visit for a respite the mountain town of Julian, which is much like Galena. So this, from today's San Diego Union-Tribune, breaks my heart:
"Fire crews are waging a frantic battle to save Julian, carving battle lines around the central business district of the mountain community best known for antique shopping and apple pie....Julian was deserted last night. Streets were empty, shops closed. The only vehicles on Main Street were those of sheriff's deputies."
This one fire has already burned a land area twice the size of the City of Chicago, and destroyed almost 1200 homes. Massive doesn't even begin to describe it.
armchairpundit 10/29/2003 12:00:00 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
It's Far Worse Than "Ghost Kids"
The problems with the Chicago's Department of Human Services run far deeper than the initial report in today's Sun-Times would indicate. According to friends of mine who run social service agencies, DHS's mismanagement of Head Start lead the feds to cut off some Head Start funding already, and to threaten to cut off ALL funding unless dramatic steps were taken to fix the problem. According to the Sun-Times:
"Sources said the problem of 'ghost kids' at Chicago Youth and Community Services triggered a federal review that uncovered more problems in the city's Head Start program."
In late September the Bush Administration contacted the Mayor's office and told them of the looming suspension. The Mayor, grateful to Bush, and not willing to be embarassed by a cut-off, dispatched John Doerrer, his political hatchet-man, to take over and clean the mess up (one of the results being that DHS head, Ray Vazquez, has now been fired). One social service agency executive director told me that the problems have been pervasive for years, and that it shouldn't have taken a fed investigation to get the Mayor's attention. But, hey, he's had other matters to attend to other than Chicago's poorest kids -- like, oh, building a new stadium, a grandiose new park, tearing up an airport....
armchairpundit 10/29/2003 12:00:00 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Joyce Is Apologetic, Or Is He?
So far the Mayor hasn't left his defensive crouch about the conduct and qualifications of his cronies in the County Building fire. He defended James Joyce yesteday, whose only qualification to be Fire Commissioner is that he is, well, a Joyce.
But as to Joyce's lame apology yesterday, Eric Zorn has it exactly right in today's Tribune:
A SORRY SORRY
Let's take a closer look, shall we, at Chicago Fire Commissioner James Joyce's attempt at damage control. Monday:
"If the families of those who died took my words spoken Friday to mean I wouldn't change the result of this tragic fire, I apologize," began the critical passage.
OK, stop right there.
Joyce was directing the "apology" to those people who so totally and uncharitably misunderstood his words spoken Friday that they believed he wouldn't change the "result" -six deaths - of the Cook County Administration Building fire.
Are there any such people? Did anyone off or on the record ever imply that Joyce wanted six people to die?
Of course not.
But there are a lot of people who felt Joyce's words "spoken Friday" were inappropriately defensive, nonchalant and even incoherent:
"I don't think there's anything we would do differently," he said during that Friday news conference. "Would we be smarter next time? I'm sure we would be."
One cannot be "smarter next time" yet not do anything differently.
Critical to a graceful apology is the embrace of responsibility.
All apologies that begin with "if" are attempts by those who gave offense to shift at least some of the blame onto those (implicitly oversensitive people) who took it.
And any apology that exaggerates umbrage into vicious hysteria crosses the line into insincere.
Back to Monday: "What I was trying to get across," Joyce went on, "was that each fire is different. What doesn't change is the method of attacking such a ferocious fire."
But, in fact, the methodology of the fire department here was and remains in question, and what everyone from the families of the victims to those who frequently enter high-rises wants to hear is exactly what went wrong and what Joyce is going to do to try to make sure it doesn't happen again.
"We will consider everything we learned that night," he concluded.
That's a start.
armchairpundit 10/28/2003 12:00:00 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
A New Poll -- And It's Wide Open
The new Tribune/WGN poll for the U.S. Senate race was interesting. In both races, there is, despite the numbers and the spin from the camps, no clear front-runner. This was, essentially, a name-recognition poll, but for both parties, when pressed to name a preference, huge numbers of respondents (53% dems; 60% repubs) said they were undecided.
The fact that no candidate in the democratic race can claim front-runner status is probably the most important news not highlighted. The assumption for months was that Hynes was the frontrunner. This was based on his having won two state-wide offices, the endorsements of a slew of politicians, his father's name and operation, and what all believed would be a fundraising juggernaut. But he has not been able to capitalize on these advantages.
What happened? First, hubris rarely wins races; running hard wins races. Second, the field has two, if not three, formidable candidates besides Hynes. Hull has gone from non-existent in name recognition and in voter polls, to 25% name recognition and 6% in preference. He has pulled even with Hynes in downstate polling because of intensive media and campaigning, and has gone on the air with a similar strategy to raise name recognition and preference in Chicago (and his campaigning here, which has been intensive for months, has largely been ignored by the media).
Then there's Obama. He has done well raising money, and his 4Q numbers should be very good, given that some of Chicago's heavyweight business leaders are stepping up to raise money for him. He is building a strong volunteer operation, and his supporters are passionate. In name recognition and preference polls he is statistically even or within shouting distance of Hynes.
For Hynes, Obama, and Chico, money will soon become a problem. Hull is set to spend at least another $14 million between now and election day in March. The shifting dynamics of the race have forced Hull's opponents on the air early, which is very expensive. Just to compete with Hull in the Chicago market, it will cost a candidate $500,000 a week.
In addition, Hull is building a formidable field operation, using money to hire talent. Hynes, Obama, and Chico will have to do the same and faster than originally planned. But if you only have between $1 and $3 millon on hand as of this writing, your options are fairly limited. Hull has the advantage of being able to run the whole field. Hynes, Obama, and Chico have to figure out how to compete in targeted areas.
armchairpundit 10/28/2003 12:00:00 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Fires
I was born and raised in San Diego. I remember the fires as unpredictable and frightening -- as bad as earthquakes. My family is fine; some friends have been evacuated, but are also safe.
As for anyone going through natural disasters, the victims and those in harm's way would appreciate your good thoughts and prayers.
armchairpundit 10/26/2003 1:00:00 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Crain's Weighs In
In all my years in Chicago, I have never seen Crain's Chicago Business (THE paper of the business community) go after the Mayor and his cronies like this. They promise a fuller account in Monday's print edition, which I'll post then.
Question: will Hynes ask Higginbottom to step down from his finance committee until the matter is settled; but if not, has he been neutralized as a fundraiser for Hynes, in any event?
Crain's Chicago Business
October 25, 2003
Political ties too hot to handle?
Fire fallout hits Daley, Stroger
By Steven R. Strahler
After four tenants died in a 1996 inferno in a housing complex managed by his company, Elzie Higginbottom worried that the tragedy could imperil his access to government contracts, a process lubricated by his political fund-raising efforts.
But the deals kept on flowing. Later that year, in fact, Cook County decided to buy a Loop office building and hire a joint venture co-owned by Mr. Higginbottom's East Lake Management & Development Corp. to handle the 35-story property, the one where six people perished during a fire earlier this month.
The blaze and questions about building safety precautions, as well as fire-fighting procedures, pose huge political liabilities for Mayor Richard M. Daley and Cook County Board President John H. Stroger Jr. They also imperil the pair's relationship with Mr. Higginbottom and his joint-venture partner on the project, U.S. Equities Realty Inc.
While legal immunity could shield the county and city from costly judgments, no such comfort exists for Mr. Higginbottom and Robert Wislow, another avid political courtier who heads U.S. Equities, a real estate developer, manager and broker.
"The potential is in the tens of millions of dollars, I'm serious," says Frank W. Nagorka, an attorney who has defended the city and other government bodies in fire-related litigation. Adds Terrence Lavin, a personal injury lawyer and president of the Illinois State Bar Assn., "They have no immunities at all. In terms of their exposure, ordinary negligence is available" to the plaintiffs.
As the first lawsuits naming the management company, but not the city or county, were filed last week, Chicago law firm Shefsky & Froelich Ltd., where U.S. Equities is a major client, went on full alert.
Later in the week, however, the assignment was transferred by the building's insurer, Hartford Financial Services Group Inc., to Stephen B. Frew at Kiesler & Berman, according to Shefsky's James Wilson. Mr. Frew could not be reached immediately for comment.
The political fallout is intensified by the rage of another prominent politico, Cook County State's Attorney Richard Devine, who barely escaped and won't sit still for a whitewash from a promised independent investigation that also would be expected to assess Chicago Fire Department management under Commissioner James Joyce.
Says one source with access to the mayor's inner circle, "Daley is not going to cover for Higginbottom on this one. Joyce is all right unless they can prove in these trials if there was fire malpractice. If (his bosses) have to throw him under the bus, they'll throw him under the bus."
Reached at home, Mr. Higginbottom said of the fire at 69 W. Washington, "It was an unfortunate occurrence," but withheld further comment, citing litigation. At his home, Mr. Wislow declined to take a call.
armchairpundit 10/25/2003 8:48:44 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
A Profile in Cowardice -- Where's Hizzoner?
This from today's Sun-Times:
"Mayor Daley spent the week promising the victims' families a full account of the Fire Department's performance, but he was a no-show at Friday's news conference. Joyce was left to sink or swim by a mayor who, by all accounts, is furious about what happened at the Cook County Administration Building."
Yeah right. Is it possible he didn't show because for the first time in his tenure he and his cronies are actually being hammered for stupidity and negligence?
Can anyone imagine, say, Rudy Giuliani allowing a press conference of this importance to go on without his presence?
armchairpundit 10/25/2003 12:00:00 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Pressure Builds And Stroger Defends His Panel
Apparently stung by Patrick Murphy's comments that he lacks "backbone," Blago decided to step in yesterday and appoint his own commission to investigate last Friday's County Building fire. Stroger also got around yesterday to naming a commission.
When asked whether any of Stroger's commission had political or other ties to him, this was his answer (from today's Sun-Times): "When asked what personal or political connections he has to the panel members, Stroger evaded the question, saying, 'Cousins is black and I'm black. Strayhorn is black and I'm black. But [he is] not quite as black as Cousins and me because Strayhorn is a brown-skinned black.'"
What? Has cronyism and nepotism gotten so bad in Chicago that the only way Stroger can defend the qualifications of a commission as important as this is to talk about the pigmentation of their skin. Actually, I believe that the pressure for accountability in this incident (which is, really, and accumulation of frustration over many similar incidents) is beginning to take its toll. Stroger, Daley, Blago, et. al. are just not used to having to answer tough, relentless questions, which is leading them to act, in the words of Patrick Murphy, like "Ernie, Bert and the Cookie Monster, these politicians."
armchairpundit 10/24/2003 12:00:00 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hynes Gets The Endorsement Of Two Gay Electeds
When Archpundit passed this site to me for a few weeks, he noted that blogs were, basically, vanity sites. I would like to think that my posting today resulted in the press release out of Hynes's campaign, but even I am not that vain.
That said, here is the openning paragraph of their release:
"Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes received the endorsement today of the state's leading, openly gay, progressive elected officials, State Representative Larry McKeon (D-13th) and Alderman Tom Tunney (D-44th)."
Now this only makes one of my key points: that Hynes would be able to access the support of the GLBT party regulars. McKeon has been a member of the House for many years, and Tunney is in his first year as an alderman, being tapped by the Mayor, only after two other straight candidates said no to the job. Tunney's slating came after an openly gay lawyer and neighborhood activist, who is not a party regular -- that is, who is independent of the Mayor -- pushed the long-time straight alderman of the 44th Ward, which includes the geographic heart of the GLBT community in Chicago, out of the race. Neither Mckeon nor Tunney have ever made waves or backed an independent running in Chicago.
These endoresments are significant, however, particularly if Hynes follows through with a major push for GLBT votes. What he can't do is rely on McKeon or Tunney for get-out-the-vote, because neither have field operations. But these endoresments can be leveraged in operations designed to get out GLBT voters.
Finally, a bit of free advice: although in some peoples' political world the mayor of Oak Park, or city council people from Oak Park and Wheeling, or Cook County judges may not be "leading" figures, there are openly gay and lesbian electeds in these posts, so I would suggest that the Hynes's campaign tread lightly with the adjectives.
armchairpundit 10/23/2003 1:07:30 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The GLBT Community And The Senate Race
One of the most interesting dynamics to emerge in the Democrat primary for Senate in Illinois is the shake out of support in the GLBT community. This is important because, well, the gays vote like hell.
First, so that the Hynes partisans who read this don't go nuts, let's stipulate a few things.
Dan Hynes has a solid history of building a profile in the GLBT community in Chicago and has strong name recognition. He supported the passage of HB101 and SB101, which would have added sexual orientation to the Illinois Human Rights Act. He is supported by Mike Bauer, a prominent GLBT politico, which means that Hynes, through Bauer, could attract the support of many of the GLBT party regulars. I don't doubt that on issues important to the GLBT community that come before the Congress, Hynes would do the right thing.
That said, much more is going on. Rumblings are beginning to be heard throughout the community about Hynes' downstate strategy, which involves largely aligning himself with the Poshard-wing of the party, which has a long history of virulent anti-gay positions. Indeed, the lack of support from these downstate democrats has been central to keeping the Illinois Human Rights Act from being amended. In addition, as the race has unfolded, Hynes has been virtually absent from the GLBT community. He made a showing on Pride Day, but didn't do much before and hasn't done much since. Hynes is now being openly questioned in the community and the gay press about how much he really has done over the years for the GLBT community, and whether he has been happy to have GLBT support only when, and if, it has suited him. Fair or not, the perception among many in the GLBT community is that Hynes would rather not, for now, at least, be seen or heard.
On the other hand, Hull and Obama have made significant strides in the community. The word is that Obama has the support of Alicia Obando, openly gay Alderman Tom Tunney's right hand in the lakefront's 44th Ward office. Obama has been holding receptions and house parties in the community and talking up his substantial support over the years of GLBT issues, on which he is extraordinarily thoughtful, articulate, and passionate. He is a co-sponsor of SB101, has helped organize lobbying for the bill, and compares the fight for GLBT rights with the struggle for black civil rights. Obama has been able to attract a number of GLBT volunteers, who add to the numbers already working hard for him. He has received very favorable coverage in the Chicago Free Press, the most widely read GLBT paper in Chicago.
Hull, too, has been working hard in the community. Hull has the support of Vernita Gray, the most prominent African-American GLBT activist and a member of State's Attorney Dick Devine's staff. Hull also has the support of Ellen Myers, from Jesse White's office, Mike McHale, also from Devine's office and the president of Equality Illinois. Hull has been talking up in the community his support of women's issues over his life-time, his active philanthropic support of GLBT causes, and his understanding and support of GLBT issues. Hull has also held numerous receptions in the community: for example, he underwrote the reception on the first day of the Cook County Domestic Partner's Registry and was the only candidate to attend; and he held a party on Halsted in the heart of the GLBT community on National Coming Out Day that attracted over 200 people. The Chicago Free Press has also written very favorably about him.
The net result of their work and the publicity is that within the GLBT community, which makes up a significant block of the liberal lakefront voters, Hull and Obama are building strong "buzz" and volunteer support, which could translate into impressive, and much needed electoral results for both.
armchairpundit 10/23/2003 8:51:16 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
A Buried Tidbit
In an article in today's Sun-Times that includes, in part, reporting on James Joyce's own investigation into last Friday's County Building fire, this little bit of information is revealed:
The commander of the downtown fire district, Thomas Donnellan, was off-duty at the time, but defends firefighters for their work. So far, typical.
But then, according to the Sun-Times: "Donnellan is Joyce's brother-in-law, but Fire Department spokeswoman Molly Sullivan said the relationship would not affect Joyce's investigation."
His brother-in-law?!!! And Joyce can be impartial about his brother-in-law? Oh, please. This web of cronyism and nepotism is so tangled that no one should believe a word of any investigation, unless the investigators are clearly independent of the Mayor and the County Board.
armchairpundit 10/23/2003 5:44:43 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Pressure Is On
In a state where cronyism and nepotism in politics is almost an art form, it is always gratifying to see the inner-circle under intense pressure for their stupidity, if not negligence.
Yesterday the first lawsuit was filed against the management of the County Building that burned last Friday, which includes Elzie Higginbottom. When asked whether an independent inquiry that would focus on Higginbottom would be impartial, John Stroger almost had a stroke, saying "I don't think Mr. Higginbottom has done any more for me than many citizens have done." That doesn't even pass the laugh test. He then went on to say that he didn't "care who was affected." Yeah right. If they have to, Stroger and Daley will throw Higginbottom over the side because, for once, the media and those representing the unfortunate workers who died are not letting the matter drop. But if they can protect him and others involved in this disaster, history tells us they will.
Also, Patrick Murphy keeps at it, saying yesterday that it amounts to almost "crimial negligence" that management sent employees into stairwells they knew were not pressurized, and that the County didn't spend less than $1.5 million to add sprinklers when the retrofit was done. As I noted yesterday, Murphy is like a terrier with a bone. If he can finally crack the wall that protects the cronies and the relatives who benefit from far too much in this city and state with little or no accountability, then he will be a Profile in Courage.
At some point, I hope Mayor Daley, Mr. Stroger, and James Joyce all come before the media and face the really tough questions being asked.
armchairpundit 10/22/2003 12:00:00 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Murphy's Relentless Hammering
Patrick Murphy deserves enormous credit for not letting anyone off the hook for Friday's County Building fire disaster. He said he didn't care much about whether the mayor's "cronies" were involved in the retrofit of the building, and he called the governor a politician in "search of a backbone" for saying the matter was none of his business. His day of hammering now means that Mayor Daley is "open" to an independent investigaion.
Open? How about demanding one Mr. Mayor?
But the tangle gets thicker and thicker. Word comes yesterday that one of the partners in the building's management is Elzie Higginbottom, a long-time friend of Daley and Stroger (and a party fundraiser leading Dan Hynes's fundraising effort). Stroger said yesterday (from today's Sun-Times):
Stroger on Monday defended Elzie Higginbottom, a friend of both Daley's and Stroger's and owner of one of two companies in the joint venture that manages the county administration building. Stroger said it is not clear management made the controversial call to evacuate the whole building -- sending people into the smoky stairwells.
"The management of that building had nothing to do with the fire in that building," Stroger said.
Just like E2, if a friend of the powers-that-be is involved, circle the wagons right away. What could Stroger know at this point? Nothing. And, yes, management didn't start the fire. But did they handle the evacuation properly? Was the building up to code? Why were the stairwell doors locked? That is why Murphy wants an independent investigation, so that everyone, friends and foes alike, will have to answer tough questions and, if necessary, be held accountable.
Keep hammering Mr. Murphy.
armchairpundit 10/21/2003 12:00:00 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Mayor and Disasters
One of the confounding aspects of the Daley administration is its ability to dodge reponsibility for crises in which serious loss of lives occur. Most of the horrific incidents under his tenure involved City or County (which he controls, despite the window dressing of independence) agencies or staff making decisions that at least were part of the scenario that led to the disasters.
Columnist Mark Brown had it exactly right in yesterday's Sun-Times when he asked about Friday's County building fire:
"Excuse me, but where was the indignation? Where was the pain? Where was Mayor Daley's anger?
This was a terribly stupid way for six people to have to died in this day and age, right up there with the senselessness of the E2 nightclub disaster and the Lincoln Park porch collapse. It didn't have to happen"
And I would add the great Heat Wave of 1994.
It shouldn't be left to Cook County Public Guardian Patrick Murphy, who lost three staff members in the fire to say (from today's Sun-Times) that "he wants an independent inquiry board to look into the evacuation and response and takes issue with Mayor Daley's and Fire Commissioner James Joyce's contention that nothing went wrong in the response to the fire."
The Mayor always runs to the cover of "nothing went wrong" in the face of disaster. He has never, to my knowledge, expressed any outrage at or held accountable City or County officials for the deaths that occured on his watch that involved city inspectors, emergency response departments or teams, or anyone else.
Could it be that it is beacuse many of the departments where these decisions were made are run by political hacks instead of true professionals. Take James Joyce: he is a member of the Joyce clan that is this/close to the Daleys (relative Jeremiah being one of Daley's closest political confidants and a regular beneficiary of the City's largesse). I know Joyce. He is a nice man, but his skill runs to doing only what the Mayor says when the Mayor wants.
I hope that the local press stays on this for months, hammers Daley hard, and brings it up again and again during the next election -- a term in Chicago's mayoral politics I use lightly.
armchairpundit 10/20/2003 12:00:00 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Daley, Teachers, and Money
Without commenting on whether the CTU members should have accepted the contract put before them, I was struck by Mayor Daley's comments after the failed vote (cited on the Chicago tribune's website):
"Where is the money (for bigger raises) going to come from?" Daley asked.
"Public employees have to understand," Daley said. "Taxpayers pay your salaries. They are getting laid off. They are not getting pay increases. ... These are very challenging economic times."
Funny, Mayor Daley had no problem finding $400 million in public funds for the new Soldier's Field.
He had no problem finding over $400 million in public and private funding for Millenium Park.
He had no problem finding the money to tear down Meigs Field.
He has no problem finding millions of dollars each year for trees and flowers.
When it comes to what he wants (which usually involves self-aggrandizement): where there's a will, there's a way.
But if he doesn't care: there's no money, and there's no way.
armchairpundit 10/17/2003 11:40:00 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Numbers Are In
And although they look impressive for Hynes, if put within the context of a competitve race, they represent one more disappointment on his way to coronation. Let's face it, like it or not, this is a competitve Senate race in a State with a very expensive media market and a multimillionaire competitor. So unless one thinks that he is going to handed the nomination, one would need to raise (by looking at similar races in other States) at least $5-6M. And despite what Hynes would have us believe, the "machine" isn't what it used to be, and it's not as relevant in a federal race (no jobs to give; no motivation for workers), so it won't offset hard dollars for media and operations. Raising less than $1M in the quarter before the race begins in earnest, outpacing Obama by a little more than 150K, and not slowing Chico enough to push him out of the race is a real blow, and can't be spun away. Hynes needs to pick up the pace fast in the dollar race, or he will be forced to narrow the focus of his race either on the Chicago market or downstate, where in both areas he faces very stiff resistance.
Armchairpundit
P.S. I was going to start my guest blog with a comment about the Cubs, but thought it best to let that sleeping dog lie.
armchairpundit 10/17/2003 12:00:00 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
It would be best....
if I just turn it over to the guest blogger now. I'm very bitter. See you on November 1st. Thanks Armchairpundit.
archpundit 10/15/2003 10:32:16 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Holy CofCC Barbour!
Via Kos
Via Political Wire
Haley Barbour went to the CofCC picnic.
The election year Mississippi Black Hawk Barbecue and Political Rally held on July 19 drew dozens of political candidates and was attended by a crowd of over 500. The Black Hawk Barbecue is sponsored by the Council of Conservative Citizens to raise money for private academy school buses. (Pictured L-R: Chip Reynolds, State Senator Bucky Huggins, Ray Martin, GOP gubernatorial nominee Haley Barbour, John Thompson, and Black Hawk Rally emcee and C of CC Field Director Bill Lord
The dirtbags at the Council of Conservative Citizens are pieces of work. They are unreconstructed racists of the worst kind. How does the GOP establishment justify them?
Let's look at a couple examples, comparing Bush to Lincoln---in a bad way. By the Mississipi CofCC, the same one Barbour met with. Lincoln is evil to these guys. Why? Figure it out.
Remember these clowns from other issues? You should if you are a regular ArchPundit reader,
My single biggest day of hits came from last December's article by Joe Conason on Trent Lott and Ashcroft's ties to the Council of Conservative Citizens.
Link to the original Conason article in the above link. The point being Ashcroft couldn't have not known that Tom Bugel was scum. Just as Haley couldn't not know that that scum he is seen pictured with are indeed scum of the worst variety.
But don't let that stop him from claiming ignorance
The presence of the flag in Barbour's campaign comes as he aggressively courts support from black voters. The Council of Conservative Citizens, which advocates immigration control and preserving state symbols and has been accused of being racist, uses Barbour's picture on its Web site. Barbour has said he not only did not know his picture was on the Web site, but also he does not know what the council is.
My ass he doesn't.
This story has been floating around Jackson since at least September 26th on the Jackson Free Press site.
And guess who else is in the pic? A one Bill Lord, former campaign Chairman in Carroll County, Mississippi to Trent Lott's Senate campaigns.
The goto place on this stuff is the Temple of Democracy which has started a blog
No permalinks, but it is critical to understand that Lott got nailed for his ties to the CofCC due to attending a Blackhawk Rally a few years ago. Barbour is lying and lying badly.
archpundit 10/15/2003 3:27:41 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
As Clarification
I mean all of the jokes about Bartman humorously--no one should bother him, his family, or his employer. In fact, I wouldn't have named him at all had I had information that wasn't already widely known publicly. What he did was stupid, but just that and it is a game. Bloviator criticized the media for releasing his information and I think he is right. I won't get over it though, Ross.
archpundit 10/15/2003 12:09:09 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Bartman vs. Cubs
A more neutral take on Bartman, the spoiler of all that is holy, can be found at Eat Your Vegetables
I'm trying to feel sorry for the guy, but it just isn't working.
archpundit 10/15/2003 11:36:50 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
It's Official Kooky Kathuria
Kathuria filed a lawsuit against the Trib yesterday.
The lawsuit alleges that Kathuria of Oak Brook could lose $100 million in pending business ventures and future deals if the newspaper is not forced to remove the story from its Web site.
Kathuria also is seeking a court order for the newspaper to post retractions both in print and on its Web site. He also seeks damages in excess of $1.5 million.
"Should I have updated my resume? Yeah, but there's a lot of old resumes that are around when companies are up and running. It's a fact of business," Kathuria told reporters. "If someone said they were running a company and it's no longer around, you just have a new resume. ... So at the worst case, sure, I'm guilty of not updating my resume."
First, the suit is a non-starter. It'll be thrown out--as a public figure his business dealings are fair game. If he didn't want scrutiny, he shouldn't have run--regardless of whether the scrutiny is fair.
Second, he is officially relegated to being a fringe candidate from such behavior. Taking the hit, protesting it and moving on would have been a far, far better strategy. Now, he'll be the kook with a lawsuit againt the Trib.
archpundit 10/15/2003 10:02:12 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
I'm With Zorn
If the Cubs lose tonight, I wouldn't have been able to blog afterwards for two weeks anyway. Zorn gets it right
That Marlins' 8th inning reeked of history, of pitiful stories we will tell our children's children in 2045 during the centennial commemoration of the Cubs' last World Series appearance.
...in aught three, we were cruising along, five outs away from the World Series, when a fan snatched a pop-up from Moises Alou. After that, of course, the floodgates opened and the team's spirit was crushed....
The announcers and even some of the players who were saying "don't blame the fan" for Tuesday's defeat were guessing, at best.
You never know, of course, but the way I see it, if Alou catches that pop up, then we have two outs and Alex Gonzalez doesn't rush trying to get a double play on the ground ball two batters later, fields it cleanly, and and we're out of the inning still leading 3-1.
(Speaking of which, if there's one person in all of Cubdom who's secretly grateful to the foul-snatching fan, it's gotta be Gonzalez, whose horrifying bobble is now just a footnote and not a new chapter in team history.)
And when they excuse the fan by saying, as pitcher Mark Prior did after the game, that "99 percent of the people" would have done the same thing, reaching out for a foul ball that close to the field of play, they're simply wrong.
Most fans, good fans, smart fans know to lean out of the way--scurry if possible -- when a guy from their team is running toward the seats with a bead on a foul fly.
And here's the doubly mortifying allegation from an S-T story this morning:
"In the section where the ball fell....Pat Looney, 34, of the Northwest Side said... the (grabby fan) already had a ball from earlier in the game when Alou tossed one into the stands."
If the Cubs lose game seven tonight, their fans will never forget and never forgive.
It sounds ridiculous and petty, but it's probably true that this young man will almost certainly have to leave town and start again elsewhere if he wants some semblance of a normal life.
If the Cubs win, he'll be OK, a footnote himself, just that knucklehead who kept us all on edge for an extra 24 hours.
Not for his sake but for the sake of everyone who'll otherwise spend the rest of their lives including him in their mutterings about goats, black cats and Leon Durham, I hope it all turns into a jolly anecdote:
...we thought the players would crumble under the demoralizing weight of it all, but, by golly, the next night....
archpundit 10/15/2003 9:48:47 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Escorted Out
I attempted to post this last night between the 2nd and 3rd outs in the bottom of the 9th....
Security escorted him out early to avoid any confrontations. I just talked with someone before the last out and they took him out at the beginning of the 9th. That is probably for the best-perhaps he should join Dick Cheney in the undisclosed location.
archpundit 10/15/2003 9:30:07 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Bring Me the Head of the Fan
who interfered with Moises Alou on the foul ball. NOW!
In a sign of the apocalypse, Spoons and I are on the same page here
archpundit 10/14/2003 9:44:10 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Guest Blogger
For my time away, we will have a guest blogger--Armchairpundit (not armchair analyst) who describes himself thusly,
I am a centerist gay activist from Chicago involved in national and local GLBT issues.
I think you'll enjoy him and his take on Illinois politics. And I thank him for giving me a break while keeping the site going---while this is ultimately a vanity site, I do take readers seriously. Treat him nicely. There may be another guest blogger, but I'm waiting to hear back.
I'll be lightly posting through tomorrow and then I'll be back on or directly around November 1st. I may pop in if there is a breaking news or if really, really big news hits by the 26th. But then again I may not. Feel free to drop me e-mail in the mean time.
archpundit 10/14/2003 2:43:32 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
We Here At ArchPundit Would Like to Welcome Dr. Kathuria...
to the world of being a public figure. If you can't handle a tough news story without resorting to a lawsuit, this is going to be a very, very long primary campaign.
The lawsuit has no merit. It is going nowhere and it is going to doom any good press the campaign was going to get---John Zahm should be tackling his candidate and taping his mouth shut. If he isn't, John Zahm shouldn't be managing campaigns. It is nearly impossible for someone to win a lawsuit against a newspaper if they are a public figure--and running for the US Senate makes one a huge public figure.
This will only turn away from his message and focus on lawsuits and complaining instead of allowing him to reach voters. Even worse, the Trib's lawyers will make mincemeat of the guy in court.
archpundit 10/13/2003 4:40:23 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Kathuria Response
Via Illinois Senate here is the press release from Kathuria
Dr. Kathuria for U.S. Senate 2004- Press Release-October 13, 2003
MEDIA ALERT: DR. KATHURIA TO RESPOND TO MALICIOUS AND DEFAMATORY ATTACK BY RICK PEARSON AND CHICAGO TRIBUNE
Dr.Chirinjeev Kathuria, Republican candidate for the United States Senate, will respond to the front page smear piece published in the Chicago Tribune on October 11 and 12 in a press conference at 11:45 AM on Tuesday, October 14 at the Hampton Inn of Downtown Chicago at 33 W. Illinois
Dr. Kathuria will refute the charges that his resume and background have been 'too good to be true.' Dr. Kathuria will make key documents available to the media and the public that will prove that his resume and background are strong and completely verifiable.
Dr. Kathuria and his legal team will also present copies of the substantial lawsuit to be filed at the DuPage County Circuit Clerk's Office Tuesday morning. Dr. Kathuria will be suing Messrs. Pearson and Zajac personally, and the Chicago Tribune corporally, for $100 million in damages resulting from the story that included malice aforethought, defamation of character, false and unsubstantiated claims, willful misleading and tortious interference with contractual relationships.
"The Chicago Tribune and its political reporters must be held accountable to write fair and balanced articles on all the candidates. We must remember it is the people of Illinois who decide who gets elected- not the reporters at the Chicago Tribune. This type of irresponsible trash reporting will never stop, unless someone takes a stand against it. I will carry this fight to save my reputation on behalf of all the people of Illinois and make politics a level playing field for all candidates. May this type of character assassination and negative and biased reporting never occur again," Kathuria said.
Dr. Kathuria graduated valedictorian in 1983 from Downers Grove North High School. He earned undergraduate and medical degrees from Brown University and an M.B.A. from Stanford. Dr. Kathuria's group made a $55,000 investment in The X-Stream Networks, Inc: and he became a Director and major shareholder and helped pioneer the free ISP concept. The X-Stream networks, Inc. was sold for USD 75 million in cash and stock and merged with LibertySurf. Dr. Kathuria was instrumental
in helping build MirCorp and is a former founding director. MirCorp created world history on April 4th, 2000 when the company became the world's first company to privately launch and fund a manned space program. MirCorp helped send the first 'citizen explorer' to space, Dennis Tito. Dr. Kathuria?s co-authored papers include "Selectivity Heat Sensitivity of Cancer Cells", "Avascular Cartilage as an Inhibitor to Tumor Invasion,? and "Segmentation of aneurysms via connectivity from MRA brain data" the latter of which was published in the Proceedings of the International Society for Optical Engineering in 1993.
The Chicago Tribune was well aware of all of these accomplishments, yet chose to slant the story maliciously.
The Kathuria team will also discuss several reasons, and provide corroborating material, to explain possible motivations for the publication of this story and the months of research expended in a desperate attempt to find anything negative to defame Dr. Kathuria's good name and reputation
archpundit 10/13/2003 3:44:08 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hynes Announcement on Job Creation
ILLINOIS COMPTROLLER DAN HYNES RELEASES PLAN TO CREATE JOBS IN AMERICA
U.S. Senate Candidate Releases Comprehensive Plan To Get America Working Again
Springfield, IL ? Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes visited Springfield today to unveil his plan to create jobs in America if elected to the U.S. Senate.
?We have lost over 3 million jobs in this country and all we hear from the Bush Administration is more tax cuts for the wealthy and more money for Iraq,? said Hynes. ?This administration has no plan to stimulate the economy, no plan for Iraq and no plan to create jobs.?
Since President Bush took office, we have lost over 3 million jobs ? more than 200,000 in Illinois ? giving him the worst record on jobs for any President since the 1930?s. Our economy is struggling and we continue to sign bad trade agreements that ship our jobs overseas. States across the country are facing massive deficits, forcing many to cut jobs, eliminate services and in some cases, even raise taxes.
?Misguided economic policies and misplaced priorities have contributed to massive job losses in our country and as U.S. Senator, I will do as I have in Illinois ? get us back on track and get Americans working again,? said Hynes. ?Our leaders in Washington have forgotten that what makes America work is helping Americans get to work.?
?How many jobs must we lose before the federal government addresses needs at home, in the states and in our manufacturing sector,? asked Hynes. ?Without a commitment to investing here in America, assisting our states and standing up for American workers, we are neglecting to make good on America?s promise of providing opportunity to its people,? said Hynes.
As State Comptroller, Hynes has been a leading voice for long-term fiscal reform in Illinois and an advocate for working men and women. He has passed several legislative packages and instituted policies that will make the state more fiscally sound so that our state economy is strong, we can create jobs and protect workers. The Hynes Plan to Create Jobs is built on the same principles.
The Hynes Plan To Create Jobs includes the following:
Investing in America
Match every dollar we spend rebuilding Iraq with a dollar of investment in America
Investing in Illinois
Provide relief to state and local governments by fully funding federally mandated programs
Invest in Illinois? transportation infrastructure
Encourage development in our distressed neighborhoods and communities
Revitalize Illinois? coal industry
Invigorate Illinois? agricultural economy
Enacting a National Manufacturing Policy
Invest in small manufacturing companies
Expand Manufacturing Extension Centers
Reduce health care costs for smaller businesses
Establish Regional Manufacturing Skills Alliances
Fight for ?Made in America? tax incentives
Making America?s Trade Policies Work for American Workers
Reject unfair trade agreements
Combat unfair trade practices
Help workers hurt by U.S. trade policies
Vote to revoke PNTR status for China
Over the next few days, Hynes will travel to Peoria, Quincy and Carbondale to share his plan for creating jobs in America with fellow Illinoisans.
###
For a copy of the Hynes Plan to Create Jobs, please call the Hynes for Senate Campaign office.
archpundit 10/13/2003 1:09:16 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
NAACP Candidate Forum Available On-Line
The Illinois Channel has made the NAACP Candidate Forum available on-line.
archpundit 10/13/2003 12:20:16 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Jeri Ryan--Ex-Wife of Jack Ryan
The first thing that struck me about Jeri Ryan of Star Trek Voyager was that her husband shared the name of the protagonist in most Tom Clancy's novels. The second thing was that it wasn't like she was going to marry me anyway. The third was this guy was a conservative Republican, but hey.
Then he quit his job for a large investment firm and became a teacher in an urban Catholic High School--pretty cool.
But anyway, Kevin claims I'm slipping--he's right see the post below. But I didn't fall down on the job in this case,
Pol State 1
Pol State 2
Pol State 3
ArchPundit
So Kevin, HAH! (that is meant in very good nature...)
archpundit 10/13/2003 12:12:17 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Exhausted and Such--Cattle Call Thread
OK, so the quality of posts has been kind of low lately. Why? I'm burnt out on politics--yes, it happens from time to time. So I'm taking a break. As of sometime Wednesday I won't be posting barring a major issue until November 1st. But don't go away, I'm working on some guest bloggers who should enliven the place until I find my passion again. I'll announce more by Wednesday hopefully, but there will be light posting for the next three days. I'll finish off one more Cattle Call so consider this the comment thread.
If the guest bloggers work out, I think you'll find some fascinating commentary from people with similar views to mine, but also significantly different in some respects. If not, take a couple weeks off.
I'm doing this now so that I'll be motivated again as we head into what appears to be a fascinating election cycle. Also, if there is anyone out there interested in guest blogging shoot me an e-mail. While I've contacted a couple folks I think will do a good job, I'm open to others. The only requirement is that you have a passion for Illinois politics and you would be comparable to me in where you stand--not the same mind you.
archpundit 10/13/2003 11:58:56 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
That's Senator Chris Lauzen, CPA to you Pal
Never one to let the public forget about the foibles of many of our political leaders, let's get something straight about Chris Lauzen who was the subject of a Tom Roesser column on Saturday.
He is a flake--anyone who tries to change his name to include CPA because he was upset that a primary opponent challenged his credential deserves to be ridiculed frequently. The reason Lauzen lost to Hynes was that Lauzen is thin skinned and tried to turn it into a race about ideology--ideology that doesn't fit in Illinois statewide.
archpundit 10/13/2003 11:42:27 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Kathuria
Kathuria had a rather damning article written about him by Rick Pearson over the weekend
The whole thing looks very bad, but in the interest of fairness, Greg Blankenship sends along the information
Chirinjeev Kathuria will go on John Cox's The Progressive Conservative tomorrow at 11.30 am to rebut today's Rick Pearson article. In the Chicago area it is 1530 AM.
Which is just after I post this...I'll update when I hear what the substance is.
archpundit 10/13/2003 11:28:51 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Drunk
Yeah, well, the Cub game has me engrossed--tomorrow, tomorrow, I promise, tomorrow....
archpundit 10/10/2003 10:18:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Busy
Back tonight or tomorrow, lots to cover including the new cattle call with several developments in the Republican race.
For entertainment check out my Saint Louis blog--Blog Saint Louis
A couple minutes will explain why I've been a bit slack over here.
And Kevin--I have a response about Jeri, but I have to find the posts....I will crush you! ;)
archpundit 10/10/2003 11:09:10 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Cubs Riot II
Via Illinigirl, Normal had to control the Illinois State students after the win over the Braves.
ORMAL -- A crowd of roughly 3,000 made its way around town in the vicinity of the Illinois State University campus Sunday night, following the Chicago Cubs' decisive win over the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field in Atlanta, Ga.
Normal police were joined by officers from the McLean County Sheriff's Department in their effort to control traffic and crowds near the intersection of Mulberry Street and Fell Avenue, where the throng started to grow at about 10:35 p.m. Parts of Fell and College avenues were blocked off by police.
Over the course of more than an hour, the raucous crowd headed for the quad, Hancock Stadium, Redbird Arena and Kingsley Junior High School, where a goal post was partially knocked down.
There were apparently no injuries late Sunday or early this morning. The crowd had thinned down to about 500 by midnight, police said.
The goal post is sort of funny--sort of not given it is vandalism, but in 1984 when the Cubs went to the playoffs both of ISU's goalposts were torn down in the worst riot the town has ever seen. Strangely, the town made national news over a much tamer mini-riot over new rules on keg parties around that time.
archpundit 10/08/2003 10:40:24 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Of Mice and Men
Mice want to ban the book in Normal. Yeah, I bet that the dangerous concept of literature causes some of the ninnies in Normal to get their panties in a bunch. Boswell and the Principals had better stand up to this.
There is a dangerous concept in education called challenging one's beliefs. I don't buy that a couple racial epithets are behind this--I believe the parents are nervous their kids might think.
archpundit 10/08/2003 10:16:10 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Nobel Goes to Engle and Granger
I generally don't feel qualified to judge who gets the Economics Nobel, but these two are extremely worthy for their work in econometricts.
archpundit 10/08/2003 10:11:10 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Krugman And the Nobel?
I believe that if Paul Krugman gets the Nobel, Donald Lushkin is going to pull a Regan and I want to be there to watch his head spin around and see him get it on with a cross.
archpundit 10/07/2003 9:39:40 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Here We Go Again
Exelon plots Springfield power ploy
Seeks SBC-style fast track on IP deal, rates
The parent of Commonwealth Edison Co., which announced Sept. 26 that it was in talks to acquire Decatur-based Illinois Power from Texas-based Dynegy Inc., wants the General Assembly this fall to require the Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC) to review the acquisition within six months rather than the customary 11 months, sources familiar with the discussions say.
In addition, Chicago-based Exelon wants lawmakers to authorize the ICC immediately to set new power rates for ComEd and Illinois Power customers over the four-year period following 2006, when a rate freeze expires and prices might otherwise be reduced. Sources differ on whether ComEd is pushing for a rate hike or an extension of the rate freeze ? either of which would benefit it.
"When the rates go away in '07, they want to lock in some rate increases now and roll it all into the merger," said a top Springfield player familiar with Exelon's proposal, who asked not to be identified. But he added that the Legislature is likely to have trouble swallowing such a deal, having been burned in the SBC matter.
In either case, company executives made clear to state officials in discussions last week that they want the new rates set at the same time the Illinois Power acquisition is considered, assuming that Exelon and Dynegy can reach agreement on a deal, sources say.
Calling Pat Quinn!
archpundit 10/07/2003 5:44:32 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
More On Arnold Maremont
For those who don't remember Political State Report comparing Arnold Maremont to Blair Hull, go here first
I am a nephew of Arnold H. Maremont, the subject of your article of May 29, 2003. I am fully aware of the events of 1961 and 1962 that are the subject of your article. Your article which is taken from the Royko book "Boss" as it relates to the 1961/1962 attempt to secure the democratic nomination for the U. S. Senate and its relationship to the late Mayor Richard J. Daley is basically accurate. Unfortunately, you have omitted two very important parts of the story that might be interesting to your readers.
First, Arnold Maremont was one of the most charismatic leaders in Chicago's 1950-1970 period. In addition to being a very successful industrialist leading his family business to a NYSE listing as one of the most prominent auto parts manufacturers in the country, serving as chairman of the Illinois Public Aid Commission under Governor Otto Kerner; he was an important collector or pre-Columbian art that now resides in the Israel Museum in Jerusalem. He was truly a man for all seasons.
Second, your story about the selection of US Representative Sidney Yates while accurate as to the rejection of Arnold Maremont does not relate the bottomless cistern of cynicism of why Sid Yates was selected and nominated. The Jewish faith of both Maremont and Yates while supposedly the official reason had absolutely nothing to do with the real reason which naturally was so deeply political that it defies reason but not political common sense. The problem was not Maremont: the problem was Yates.
Sidney Yates from a safely Democratic lakefront congressional district had been reelected so many times that he was about to become the Dean (the most senior member) of the Illinois congressional delegation. The dean, Representative Thomas J. O'Brien (the former Sheriff of Cook County known far and wide as "Blind Tom" for obvious reasons) had died and a new dean was about to take over. The "Dean" had much power in committee assignments and patronage and the "regulars" in the party and the congressional delegation did not want a non-regular, independent and quality person like Sid Yates to take over. He could not be controlled and the "boys" did not want any surprises.
What to do?
The answer was simple. Nominate him to run for the US Senate seat against the incumbent minority leader, Senator Everett M. Dirksen, that was up in the election of 1962. The seat that Arnold Maremont was campaigning to be the nominee.
This was a Richard J. Daley special. He could not lose. If Yates won he goes to the Senate and is not the new Dean of the delegation. If he loses, he is out of the House and no longer in line for the succession.
When a week before the election at the end of October, 1962, as the Cuban missile crisis loomed and President Kennedy call all of the congressional leaders including Senator Dirksen to Washington for consultation; the die was cast and the election decided. Dirksen won in a landslide.
And thus, did a fine man like Arnold Maremont get turned away in the cauldron of power politics, Daley style.
I hope you found all of this interesting. Every word is true.
Sincerely,
Ira M. Plonsker
archpundit 10/07/2003 5:29:07 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Reynolds is in
Mel Reynolds is officially taking on Jesse Jackson Jr for Congress.
archpundit 10/07/2003 5:12:38 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
TV Blogging
I can only second the positive review of MI-5 over at Slate
archpundit 10/07/2003 3:01:06 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Cline as Police Chief
While Jackson gets the press, the real story here is that a white guy appeases white cops who are very angry at Daley. Cline is qualified and should do a decent job, but most importantly some of the most outspoken critics of Daley are the white cops and firefighters. Some of it justified, a lot of it not. By appointing a street cop like Cline, Daley may be reducing some tension there.
archpundit 10/07/2003 1:02:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Anyone Want to Guest Blog Next Week
I'll be out of town--anyone want a shot covering Illinois next week? Drop me a note--I still have to figure out logistics, but I think it is doable.
archpundit 10/07/2003 12:58:29 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
East Side Corruption Watch
In the I can't believe it file, the Sauget Mayor accused of using village credit cards for personal use has stepped down and is being replaced by his great nephew.
That's the way to solve the problem.
archpundit 10/07/2003 12:32:44 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Democratic Cattle Call 10/3
1. Dan Hynes. Cautious. Maybe too cautious, but starting to get more attention as the campaign begins in earnest. Still has organization, but gays and lesbians questioning commitment---more later on this.
2. Blair Hull. Hitting the base's keys and making noise. Working on support in the minority community and lakefront liberals.
3. Barack Obama. Really a tie for two, but doing well. Key will be 3rd quarter funds and has organization with black supporters. Jackson Jr. challenge by Mel Reynolds probably focuses attention in the black community away from Obama, but a minor factor.
4. Gery Chico. Taking a hit on the law firm problems. May be the beginning of the end.
5. Nancy Skinner. Good press and an activist core. No cash, but good buzz.
6. Maria Pappas. New rule. To be in the top five, you have to be in the race.
7. Joyce Washington. Didn't get a bump from an NAACP event. Dead in the water.
8. Matt O'Shea. May have problem winning the primary in Metamora at this rate.
9. Frank Avila. So I have him in the right party, right?
10. Estella Johnson-Hunt. Not in the debate. No one seemed to notice. Bit harder to claim racial bias given 2 of the six candidates were black.
11. Vic Roberts. Please, please let him in any debates. And Eric, when is the interview? Come on, you know you don't have enough cranks calling you.
archpundit 10/07/2003 11:05:46 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Republican Cattle Call 10/3
Just pretend it was up on 10/3.
1. Jack Ryan. Faltering a bit at the debate. Still has looks, charisma and money.
2. Steve Rauschenberger. Skipped the debate on principle. Not sure if the move will make him look like a crank or not, but still has organization.
3. Jim Oberweis. Seems to be energetic and contrary to last week making in roads with social conservatives.
4. John Borling. Maybe not so boring and is using spicy language and military terms to reinforce his views. Quick witted with this line,
John Borling on seeing the Blair Hull supporters quipped, "Ah, the beauty of paid help."
Quoted by the good folks at the Illinois Senate
5. Andrew McKenna. Solid but not spectacular.
6. John Cox. Hits the conservative issues, but not making headway.
7. Chirinjeev Kathuria. Shut out of debate, but headlines go to Rauschenberger. Given how early the race is the top 6 criteria for the debate is a bit weird.
8. Jonathan Wright. Nothing.Again.
9. Antonio Davis Fairman. Antonio Davis-Fairman To Attend Arrival Ceremony Hosted By President George W. Bush and First Lady Laura Bush For President Kibaki of Kenya. That's something. I suppose.
archpundit 10/07/2003 10:47:38 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
For Those In California Remember To Save The Jackass
Gray Davis is a jackass--but save the jackass for stability's sake.
archpundit 10/07/2003 9:44:25 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
But one last thing for tonight...
Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win!
archpundit 10/07/2003 12:34:38 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
So tomorrow
I promise--got overloaded with St. Louis politics on Blog Saint Louis.
archpundit 10/07/2003 12:30:28 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Graham's Out
He's a classy guy and we need him. Here is his withdrawal speech.
He's also a serious guy--something that doesn't play in Presidential Politics--just ask Dick Lugar. I hope his willingness to fight means running for reelection in Florida.
archpundit 10/06/2003 11:35:13 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Cattle Call Comments-Democrats
Will Hynes have a good fundraising quarter? What about Obama? How will the Hull factor play in fundraising given the candidates can accept up to $12,000 per contributor? How is Hull doing downstate? Is Pappas ever going to show up? Has Chico kept up? Will Vic Roberts have his family get power of attorney over him?
archpundit 10/03/2003 11:45:49 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Cattle Call Comments-Republicans
Who is up, who is down? Does the beard matter? Just how many points is it worth to Kathuria or will it cost Rauschenberger? Can Cox break out? And just how much will I enjoy my new Oberweis Dairy Service? Will it bias me?
archpundit 10/03/2003 11:37:39 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Down for the Count
I was knocked out of commission for a couple days there--we can speculate whether that was due to a curse or just a coincidence, but I'm on the mend. Regular updates will resume this afternoon, but I'll post the Comment periods and the actual Cattle Calls Monday.
archpundit 10/03/2003 11:23:02 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Cubs Win!
Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!
Just wait until they get to the series if you think I'm annoying now.
BTW, three Cubs blogs for the playoffs that are on my expanded blog roll
The Clark & Addison Chronicle
The Cub Reporter
The [Untitled] Cubs Page
archpundit 9/30/2003 10:54:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Cubs Win!
Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!Cubs Win!
Just wait---if they get to the series if you think I'm annoying now.
BTW, three Cubs blogs for the playoffs that are on my expanded blog roll
The Clark & Addison Chronicle
The Cub Reporter
The [Untitled] Cubs Page
archpundit 9/30/2003 10:54:32 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Scoobie Scoops
Scoobie listens to those I can't handle
Come on. Do you think this bunch [the supposed Clinton cabal] is actually getting behind him [Clark] to promote him for the sake of making him a winner? Hardly, my good--If Wesley Clark doesn't look out, I mean, his family is going to be looking for him in Fort Marcy Park before it's too long. You don't sit out there and paint the Cliinton adminstration as clueless on world affairs and have these people become your best friends.
This is a reference to Vince Foster's suicide.
archpundit 9/30/2003 10:42:09 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Eat Your Vegetables
Has a rather excellent take on Rush's take on Donavan McNabb. Really, it is sort of bizarre.
But more importantly, Lane and Tina have great taste in television shows. For those with HBO, make sure to check out the replay of the first season of The Wire. It is some of the best work on television. In addition, the book the Corner is written by Simon and is a very good read (and a decent mini-series).
archpundit 9/30/2003 10:11:10 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Pseudonymous Blogging
It seems like only a couple days ago that I explained to Eric Zorn why I blog pseudonymously. That's because it was only a couple days ago. I often wonder if I'm a bit too paranoid, but given I post a lot on local issues in St. Louis and some of those posts are somewhat controversial it allows me to avoid uncomfortable situations. I wasn't quite sure what might happen, but one of the issues was harassing calls or behavior. And I'm not convinced that being uncomfortable is enough of an excuse. Declaring what you believe might often be uncomfortable. I have a family and while I am certainly willing to accept accountability for what I write, the nuiscance of being known could be a problem. I believe the post on being cursed makes the point.
I'm not sure if I'll remain pseudonymous for a lot of the initial reasons why I did aren't really relevant anymore. On the other hand, Rochell Moore has asked her supporters to protect her with weapons.
I actually agree with Eric Zorn's assesment today on pseudonymous writing,
A one-name newspaper byline, "Garbo," on a Tempo commentary "Will `Lesbian Eye' be next? It's unlikely anytime soon."
A one-name byline is automatically pseudonymous in our culture--a handful of celebrities excepted--though one-name and pseudonymous (and anonymous) writings go way back and include "Publius," the name under which Alexander Hamilton, James Madison, and John Jay wrote the Federalist Papers.
The practice has been rare in American letters and journalism over the last century or so, but I wonder if the internet culture isn't giving it a big boost.
My 13-year-old son and his friends all IM each other using elaborate names for themselves even though in some cases they could use their own names or simple versions thereof; I'd guess that about half of the web logs and 80 percent of the message board postings I've looked at are written anonymously or pseudonymously, the ethic being that it doesn't matter who you are, but what you say.
My feeling, as one whose name is always attached to his words, is that accountability is an important promoter of responsibility and accuracy. And who you are does matter to the reader. On the other hand, it would be nice to have a dashing nickname for an alter ego:
But at least for the near future, I'm going to remain pseudonymous. I always hope to make up for the disadvantage of being pseudonymous by trying hard to be honest and get the facts straight--especially when I am reporting. And I always try and make factual corrections obvious. In fact, I'll dispute Rochell Moore's claim that I got the story wrong--she did assert that Amy Hilgemann put cocaine in her coffee at the Board Meeting. Maybe Moore meant that Hilgemann helped plan it, but that is what I heard Moore say. I'm not sure that either claim makes Moore's conspiracy theory any more reasonable. Actually, I am sure, it doesn't make her conspiracy theory reasonable.
Then again, the way the curse situation could play out, I could be outed soon anyway. Many in St. Louis have already guessed my identity so it wouldn't be a huge change, just an inconvenience in some instances.
archpundit 9/30/2003 9:36:55 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Obama's E-mail
I may need to check my spam folder, Glenn Brown passes on Obama's letter to supporters. And don't forget Howard Dean is shooting for $15,000,000 total tonight by midnight EST
Dear Friend,
Thank you so much for being so generous with your support to my
campaign, I am truly thankful. But we still need your help.
The hits from the Bush Administration just keep on coming ? 22 straight
months of job losses, health care costs soaring with no answer from the
White House, $87 BILLION to reconstruct Iraq while Bush cuts funding
for affordable housing, Head Start and student loans right here in
America.
It is time for Democrats to stand up and be counted.
I am proud to be the only candidate for U.S. Senate to speak out at
rallies last fall against the War in Iraq. I was proud to pass an
expansion of KidCare that will mean health care for 20,000 additional Illinois
children. And I was proud to lead the fight for laws to ban racial
profiling and require video taped confessions in death penalty cases.
But what humbles me is the outpouring of support I have received from
thousands of people like you who have given their time, their energy,
their ideas and their money to this campaign.
TODAY we must keep rolling.
The FEC reporting deadline is TODAY. Right now is the critical time.
The FEC reports will tell everyone which campaigns are moving forward
and which are treading water. The media will pore over our campaign?s
report and those of the other candidates. Our strong fundraising results
at the end of this month will pay huge dividends in the fall and
winter.
Your donation of $50, $125, $250 or whatever you can spare is the sure
antidote to the failed Bush Administration.
Let?s send a Democrat to the U.S. Senate who has deep progressive
values, not just deep pockets. Let?s send a Senator to Washington who has
already won many tough battles in the State Senate for Illinois? working
families.
Click on http://www.obamaforillinois.com right now and use your credit
card to send a message that Illinois? U.S. Senate seat belongs to the
people.
If you have any questions about how to contribute, or about
contribution limits, please call (312) 427-6400. Thank you again for your
support.
Remember, act before tonight?s Midnight deadline!
Barack Obama
Candidate for US Senate
archpundit 9/30/2003 8:04:10 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Is It the End of the Reporting Quarter or Something?
Give to your favorite Democratic Senate Candidate--Dan Hynes information is below. (no this isn't favoritism, he sent it out, Barack didn't and Hull doesn't need to).
TO: Friends and Supporters
FR: Hynes for US Senate
RE: Twelve hours to help make America work again.
As our next United States Senator from Illinois, Dan Hynes is determined to change Washington's misguided priorities and make America work once again.
And you can help. RIGHT NOW.
As one of Dan's closest friends and supporters, today is the last day you can make a contribution before our campaign must file its official third-quarter campaign finance report.
Until midnight tonight, you can make a huge difference in Dan's campaign -- and a bold statement about the new course America must take to realize her incredible promise and potential.
President Bush and the Republicans just keep on doing it wrong. Huge tax breaks for the super-rich. Bad trade deals that export American jobs and hopes overseas. Turning the other cheek as America's biggest corporate special interests violate their workers' pensions and cook their own books.
As our next US Senator, Dan Hynes is ready to stand up to the Bush agenda. Dan's ready to fight for tax policies that respect hard-working Americans and protect the middle class. Trade deals that put American assembly lines ahead of the corporate bottom line. And real corporate responsibility to end Washington's practice of corporate capitulation.
Help Dan get it done.
Please consider making a contribution to Dan?s campaign today by going to our website at www.danhynes.com, calling our Chicago office at 312-337-2004 or by mailing a contribution, made out to ?Hynes for Senate,? to our headquarters at: 1525 N. Wells, Chicago, IL 60610.
With your help, Dan can win the Democratic primary and help win back the U.S. Senate. Together, we can get America - and Americans - working again.
Thank you for your past and future support!
Hynes for Senate
Pursuant to the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 and the regulations of the Federal Elections Commission, based on filings made by an opposing candidate for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Illinois, the Hynes Exploratory Committee may accept up to $12,000 from an individual. To contribute an individual must be a U.S. citizen or legal permanent resident of 18 years or older. Contributions from the treasuries of corporations, incorporated corporations, and labor organizations are prohibited. Contributions from Illinois Comptroller employees are not accepted by the Hynes for Senate Campaign. Contributions to Hynes for Senate are not tax deductible for federal income tax purposes.
archpundit 9/30/2003 2:30:52 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
I've Been Cursed, I Think
While most of you who read the Illinois and General side of the blog don't get exposed to my writing on the Saint Louis Public Schools at Blog Saint Louis, it is a significant portion of my blogging.
One post in particular has drawn the attention of Rochell Moore, a Saint Louis Public School Board Member. A post on Political State Report reported on efforts to reform the Saint Louis public Schools. That post included very critical remarks about Ms. Moore. It appears that she has reponded in comments
This article is most slanderous and malicious in it's intent. You are not a medical doctor nor are you licensed to give an opinion on someone's health. It was Charlene Jones who placed cocaine in my coffee on October 21, 2003. She came to the hospital and told them I was paranoid and delusional. I have the records to prove it.
If you are going to tell the story, tell it correctly. Please refrain from referring to me as mentally ill. Because of your writings and tone, you too can be added to the letter sent to Francis Slay
An electronic version of the letter is available at the Arch City Chronicle.
"The Lord shall make the pestilence cleave unto Francis Slay and anyone who helps him, until he have consumed thee from off the land, whither thou goest to possess it," she writes, modifying a passage found in Deuteronomy 28:21. "The Lord shall smite Francis Slay and anyone who helps him with a consumption, and with a fever, and with an inflammation, and with an extreme burning, and with the sword and with blasting and with mildew; and the angel of the Lord shall pursue Francis Slay until he perishes."
So I'm on mildew watch.
archpundit 9/30/2003 12:52:38 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
24-3 at the Half
Did I mention, Cubs Win! The Bears certainly aren't going to. I don't mind losing 10-7. I do mind losing 37-10.
archpundit 9/29/2003 9:50:21 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
How to Attract Quality Teachers to Urban Environments
Via Haas, Via Bill Purdy, comes Matt Miller's Atlantic Monthly piece, A New Deal For Teachers . Miller proposes a plan to improve teacher pay in poor districts,
If the quality of urban schools is to be improved, teaching poor children must become the career of choice for talented young Americans who want to make a difference with their lives and earn a good living too. To achieve that the federal government should raise the salary of every teacher in a poor school by at least 50 percent. But this increase would be contingent on two fundamental reforms: teachers' unions would have to abandon the lockstep pay schedules, so that the top-performing half of the teacher corps could be paid significantly more; and the dismissal process for poor-performing teachers would have to be condensed to four to six months.
I can't argue with the proposal, but there is another problem no one wants to address which is how urban districts hire teachers. (free registration required)
Urban school districts are losing out on the best teachers because they are mired in layers of policy and practice that postpone hiring until after most of the best applicants have accepted jobs in suburban systems, a report released here last week contends.
The study by the New Teacher Project challenges the perception that city school systems are strapped for teachers because too few people want to teach in high-poverty schools. On the contrary, the authors found that with good recruiting strategies, urban districts can draw five or more applicants for every opening.
You have to have a functioning human resources department that puts a premium on hiring high quality teachers.
archpundit 9/29/2003 4:47:41 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Heras Win!
Heras Win!Heras Win!Heras Win!Heras Win!Heras Win!
Okay, enough, but he pulls out the victory in the second to last day of the Vuelta a Espana in what had to be one of the most hellacious time trial stages I've ever seen.
The good news, he'll be back with Postal for Lance's attempt at 6. He is targeting 2005 as his year.
Kos is in heaven too
archpundit 9/29/2003 3:28:55 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Who Will Take the Fall?
Get your Max Speak Dead Pool Bets Placed
Who are the Dead Men Walking?
archpundit 9/29/2003 3:09:33 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Did I mention...
CUBS WIN!
archpundit 9/29/2003 3:01:05 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Don't Blame the Reporters, Blame the Administration
Normally, I agree with Joe Conason on many issues, but today I think he is shifting the blame to the wrong group concerning the leadk of Valerie Plame's status as a CIA operative.
Now that we know the CIA has asked the Justice Department to investigate the "outing" of Valerie Plame -- aka Mrs. Wilson -- as an agency operative, this scandal has broken onto the front pages. Sooner or later, John Ashcroft may be forced to appoint a special counsel, as both Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., and John Kerry, D-Mass., have demanded. (One reason to name a special counsel, or independent counsel, is that a key suspect named Karl Rove used to work as a political consultant for Ashcroft -- and played a part in his appointment as attorney general.)
While the president's press secretary insists that Rove was not involved in this outrage, I can't help wondering how reporters, editors and bureau chiefs in the capital justify their silence. Tim Russert of NBC and Robin Sproul of ABC both said they wouldn't discuss any matter involving sources. That's an ironclad rule of journalism, up to a point. But what should a journalist do when a source commits a serious crime in his or her presence? What if that crime not only threatens to jeopardize human lives, but also harms U.S. national security in the most profound way?
The real question is why isn't the President at a podium pounding on a lectern calling for someone's head?
I question Novak's judgement, but his sources are his sources.
This is a despicable act by a despicable person. We don't know who did it yet, but when it comes out, and it will, one can only hope the President accepts some responsibility for this. If the person acted without his knowledge, and I'm guessing the leakers did, he damn well better have a major mea culpa. If the leaker acted with the President's knowledge---well, let's hope that something that ugly didn't happen.
For continuing excellent coverage on the issue see,
Calpundit
Dan Drezner
Mark Kleinman
and of course, Josh Marshall
archpundit 9/29/2003 2:48:52 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Sauget Corruption
Noticeably absent from the news were tales of St. Clair County corruption, but today, Sauget comes through for those of us titilated by the Metro East mess.
SAUGET -- Lingerie. Home appliances. Weight loss products. Dinner parties at St. Louis steakhouses.
Those are just some of the scores of purchases Mayor Paul Sauget has charged to village taxpayers on village credit cards, according to a Belleville News-Democrat review of credit card statements.
Between December 2001 and August 2003, Sauget racked up $38,407 in expenses, according to billing statement copies obtained under the Illinois Freedom of Information Act.
The statements for the village-issued American Express and Citi Platinum cards show that Sauget's expenses have spanned a wide gamut.
They include: $57 for a People magazine subscription in December 2001; $5,010 for medical services at the Midwest Head and Neck Center in St. Louis in May 2002; $25 for mail order vitamins in October 2002; and $35 for coins from the Franklin Mint in New York, the receipts show.
Also included were scores of items bought from vendors catering to a female clientele.
They include: $117 for cosmetics from a Bloomingdales catalog in December 2001; $165 for women's clothing from Victoria's Secret in February 2002; $228 for women's underwear from Dillard's department store in Fairview Heights in October 2002; $275 for the L.A. Weight Loss Center in O'Fallon; and $45 for a trip to USA Nails in Cahokia in August 2002, the receipts show.
Sauget, 78, has served as mayor of the village -- population 249 -- that bears his family name for more than three decades.
If the village is known for anything, it's for the hulking chemical plants and popular bars and strip clubs planted along Illinois 3. The internal workings of village government usually keep a low profile.
Sauget was incorporated to avoid East St. Louis incorporating the area and imposing controls on Monsanto's chemical plants. East St. Louis is now rewarded with heavy metals in their soil killing off the old trees.
It along with Brooklyn and Washington Park are essentially dens of corruption that the rest of Illinois has treated like law free zones.
archpundit 9/29/2003 2:19:21 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Polls, Polls, Polls
Bernard Schoenburg covers a couple Senate stories yesterday reporting a month old Hynes poll with the recent Fox poll.
Hynes' camp made public a poll last week that shows their candidate in the lead. Hynes had support from 26 percent of likely Democratic primary voters. Other totals were 15 percent for MARIA PAPPAS, the Cook County treasurer, who has not yet announced a bid; 12 percent for Obama; 4 percent for GERY CHICO, 3 percent for BLAIR HULL, 1 percent for JOYCE WASHINGTON and 1 percent for NANCY SKINNER. Global Strategy Group Inc. of New York took that poll of 1,000 likely Democratic primary voters Aug. 14-20 - more than a month ago. Hynes spokeswoman CHRIS MATHER said the campaign decided to let Hynes formally launch his campaign before releasing the poll numbers. The numbers include those leaning to a candidate - amounting to 4 percentage points for Hynes, 1 for Obama and 2 for Pappas.
Another poll commissioned by Fox News and reported Thursday in Chicago is more recent. The poll of 400 Democrats and 400 Republicans done by KRC Communications Research of Newton, Mass., from Monday through Wednesday, found 50 percent of Democrats undecided, with 10 percent for Hynes, 9 percent for Hull, 8 percent for Obama, 7 percent for Chico and 5 percent for Washington.
2 key points. First, don't trust polls by the candidate too much. Second, the larger the sample size the better. I have to wonder if the Fox News poll doesn't suffer from only having 400 respondents. All of the major candidates are within the margin of error anyway, but given Hynes has some name recognition before starting, he should be higher than 9 percent. IOW, don't always trust media polls either.
The big problem is that this early in a race, most voters aren't paying attention and they want to give an answer to pollsters. The important thing is that when they do that, if things don't intervene to create interest, that might be how they vote too.
The article also contains some interesting Rauschenberger details concerning his views on Democrats in the Lege and his background.
archpundit 9/29/2003 2:11:40 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Journalism and Blogs
Eric Zorn has a lengthy discussion of how news organizations should approach journalists' blogs and I think it is an excellent take on the issue.
The thing left out is that journalism is changing and changing very fast. Blogs aren't the future of news reporting, but they may well become the future of news analysis and perhaps most importantly for news organizations, the future of tying readers to your paper or web site.
Having distinctive voices showcased is the way to tie in readers to newspapers especially. The reader letter/calls columns sort of did that in the past, but now there is a far more direct and efficient way of communicating. This is the huge mistake with the Red Eye. Instead of tieing it into the on-line version with a reciprocal relationship, the Red Eye is primarily a paper only.
The oddest thing is the Trib now has a columnist with a reciprocal relationship between print and electronic versions, but he is a part of the flagship. The Red Eye should have all of its columnists blogging and the entertainment reporting should be tied into on-line extras with every story.
That said, I'm a bit less optimistic about most reporters blogging. First, it takes time and many probably have families and the like. Second, it won't work for everyone. Some people don't have a writing voice that is distinctive and easy to connect with for the reader. Columnists naturally have this--or at least many do. Reading Eric Zorn's work is like reading conversation with a friend. Royko was certainly like that and Kass is like that. Mary Schmich has that quality too. Steve Chapman does in a very different way--he's a wonky friend. Don Wycliff certainly is conversational as Bruce Dold was before him. John McCarron and Carol Marin are more wonky friends. At the Sun-Times Debra Pickett is the most obvious personal voice along with Mark Brown.
In contrast, Novak, Steve Neal and Clarence Page are more traditional writers who offer up arguments and not the same personal relationship. Blogging wouldn't work for them. Hell, television doesn't work for Novak.
The point being that for a blog to work, it has to be a conversation and too much editing would get in the way of that. However, a trusted reporter/columnist already knows the rules of what they can easily say and what they can't. If they aren't sure, they can hold that back. I do that even on this tiny blog.
archpundit 9/29/2003 2:04:19 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
School Funding Problems Brewing
Phil Kadner seems to be the only way taking up the issue substantively in the press. He has had three recent columns that deal with it including one that addresses a new effort by State Senator Maggie Crotty and Lt. Governor Pat Quinn. It could be that the press just ignores Quinn's missives, but my guess is that the topic is too confusing to write simple pieces about.
State Sen. Maggie Crotty (D-Oak Forest) and Lt. Gov. Patrick Quinn plan to barnstorm the state this fall to gain support for a plan that would increase the Illinois income tax on people earning more than $250,000 a year.
Money raised from the tax would be divided equally, with half going to public schools and half into a property tax rebate fund that would be distributed equally to every homeowner in the state.
As a political necessity, this might be needed. Attempts to funnel the money to only poor districts is unlikely to pass, but passing the money around might help. More important, is that the state doesn't live up to its obligations to be the primary source of funds for schools
The Chicago mayor, joined by some of his suburban counterparts, demanded Wednesday that the state fulfill its obligation under the Illinois Constitution as "the primary" source of public school funding.
The state currently supplies only 33 percent of the money used to fund public education
As Kadner puts it,
If he was serious about this school funding business, he wouldn't be holding news conferences, he'd be talking to the governor.
There are some tough choices to make for politicians in Illinois concerning how to fund Illinois schools and everyone is ignoring it. This is nothing new, but sooner or later it will have to change. A comprehensive school reform package that encourages consolidation in some districts and property tax relief.
Senator Meeks is suggesting everything, but the school consolidation bit, which is off the radar other than in rural areas.
archpundit 9/29/2003 11:28:07 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Mel Reynolds Come Back?
Kristen McQueary reports that Mel Reynolds is contemplating a comeback by challenging Jackson Jr. for his Congressional seat.
Reynolds is still angry that he was mistreated and held to a higher standard because he is black when he was investigated and convicted for sleeping with a teenage campaign worker.
He is right, he was treated far worse because he wasn't uber-connected as Rostenkowski was, but that only means that Rosty shouldn't be showered with praise, not that Reynolds deserves better treatment. He slept with a teenage campaign worker. Regardless of whether prosecutors snicker about such crimes or not, it was wrong.
archpundit 9/29/2003 11:05:10 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Oh, yeah, the Duffs got nailed
The Trib has released their full coverage.
Gee, you mean a bunch of white guys don't qualify for minority participation?
archpundit 9/27/2003 11:38:17 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Meet and Greet Lunch for David Gill in the 15th
"Rx: Prescription for Our Future-- Lunch with Dr. David Gill" Congressional Candidate, IL 15th District
Sunday, October 5, 2003
Noon- 3PM
At Elks Lodge- Clinton, IL
$10 Adults, $5 Children under 10 (ages 3 & under free)... pork BBQ and many side dishes
50/50 Raffle, Bake Sale, Guest speakers and much more!
Directions: Rt. 54 to 1520 E. South St. in Clinton
Sponsored by Friends of David Gill
www.davidgillforcongress.com
archpundit 9/27/2003 11:00:59 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hynes in the Gay Community
A quite critical column on Dan Hynes' committment to Gay and Lesbian rights was written in the Chicago Free Press
The list of Democrats who ushered Hynes on his downstate meet-and-greet includes several anti-gay officials, including Poshard and state Sens. George Shadid (Peoria) and Gary Forby (D-Marion). These senators oppose Senate Bill 101, a law that seeks to discourage anti-gay discrimination in Illinois. Hynes chose state Sen. Vince Demuzio (D-Carlinville), another "no" vote on SB 101, as one of his campaign co-chairs.
Hynes has always voiced strong support for GLBT civil rights issues. But I can't help but wonder this: If he's influential enough among conservative downstate Democrats to win their support for his campaign, why is he unable to persuade them to vote for our anti-discrimination bill?
While I think the gay community has legitimate beefs with Blagojevich and legitimate policy problems with Poshard, the problem with this kind of politics is it creates a circular firing squad of the type in which the Republican Party in Illinois is participating. Policy disputes are fine, but guilt by association is a problem. Vince Demuzio isn't my kind of Democrat, but without him, Democrats aren't nearly as strong in Illinois as the currently are. And without a strong Democratic presence, gay rights won't go anywhere in Illinois. The Republican Party is pulling the other way.
More fair is the following,
Following his announcement speech, Hynes told a reporter that "marriage is a union between a man and a woman." His campaign spokesperson Chris Mather later clarified for CFP that the comptroller would support a law to give same-sex couples the privileges and responsibilities of heterosexual marriage. In addition to supporting SB 101, Hynes also backs federal anti-discrimination legislation and other measures vital to GLBT civil rights advocates.
But Hynes has no legislative record to demonstrate the strength of his commitment. With his father's help, he was elected to the statewide office of comptroller at the age of 29, without having held any prior elective office. Now at 35, he is the youngest candidate in the Senate race. His views on a host of issues remain largely untested.
There is no mention of the words "gay" or "lesbian" on Hynes' campaign website. On the other hand, his opponent state Sen. Barack Obama (D-Chicago) proudly touts his role as a co-sponsor of SB 101 on the Internet. Candidate Blair Hull's campaign passes out flyers featuring his support for a number of pro-GLBT policies, ranging from training educators in how to handle anti-gay discrimination in schools to legalizing same-sex civil unions.
Hynes needs to keep in mind that alienating an important section of the Democratic base can be a problem in the primary and the general. And often, in such cases as this, alienating activists happens from sins of ommission as much as anything. While the web site is still being rolled out, he has very little on the environment either.
archpundit 9/27/2003 10:21:47 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Love it or Leavitt
Not sure about Mike Leavitt? Take a look at this site, which details his record as Governor.
archpundit 9/27/2003 9:58:13 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
California By the Issues
WBUR is running a vote by platform web quiz that is quite good. It provides who you match up with on each issue area.
archpundit 9/27/2003 9:55:18 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Let's Play 2: CUBS WIN!
CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!CUBS WIN!
archpundit 9/27/2003 9:31:36 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Democratic Cattle Call 9/26
1. Dan Hynes. At the head of the polls and still the nominal front runner. Has tons of organizational support with the Carpenter's Union backing him this week. While union endorsements only go so far, and unions aren't always as united as they may seem, 50,000 pieces of literature to union voters is nothing to squawk at.
2. Blair Hull. The money is paying off with 9 percent in the most recent poll. Creating name ID is the name of the game and he seems to be doing that while not creating huge negatives.
3. Barack Obama. A high profile state lege member shouldn't be falling behind (even within the margin of error) a political neophyte, but he is close. Apparently not active in some neighborhoods in Chicago where he should be able to draw on an activist base.
4. Gery Chico. Still has cash and isn't doing too badly in the polls. Still hasn't cracked the Hispanic vote. If he can't do that, he isn't going anywhere.
5. Maria Pappas. New rule. To be in the top four, you have to be in the race.
6. Joyce Washington. Not bad in the poll, but still not getting any coverage or attention besides as a spoiler.
7. Nancy Skinner. Got beat in the poll. Gotta be on the radar to make a run for it.
8. Matt O'Shea. I'm quickly running out of snarky things to say here.
9. Frank Avila. I hope I have him in the right party. Bueller?
10. Estella Johnson-Hunt. I hope she has herself in the right universe.
11. Vic Roberts. Please, please let him in any debates. A quick measure of a candidate is if they can handle crackpots. Remember McCain handling Alan Keyes? He'd separate the talented from the empty suits. And when is that interview coming Eric Zorn?
FEC reports won't be out for a couple weeks, but they could be very telling this time. Chico and Hynes have the most at stake. Chico goes low, money won't follow. Hynes doesn't outpace Obama and he looks weak.
archpundit 9/27/2003 6:05:34 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Republican Cattle Call 9/26
1. Jack Ryan. Top of the poll even though everyone is in the margin of error. Appealing to those who aren't even that familiar with him. Seems to have the intangible of charisma.
2. Steve Rauschenberger. Lot's of help from Lege supporters and straddles the line between the moderate and conservatives. Continuing budget problems play to him since he is the go to guy in the Lege for the press on budget issues. Lost the beard now looks like generic Republican candidate.
3. Andrew McKenna. Still has the connections and is getting generally good press from conservatives. Many still wary of his threatened challenge to Fitzgerald.
4. Jim Oberweis. Doing all right in polling--hasn't seemed to win over wary social conservatives.
5. John Cox. Even in second race statewide doesn't seem to be cracking the Republican primary electorate. Then again, Oberweis hasn't jumped out either.
6. John Borling. Maybe boring, but is registering in the polling.
7. Chirinjeev Kathuria. Still getting good press, and stood up for principle on his beard and is keeping it. Didn't make a dent in the polls, but seems to be genuinely liked by the press. That may help later.
8. Jonathan Wright. Nothing.
9. Antonio Davis Fairman. As Marie mentioned in comments, as a runner-up prize, Illinois is looking for a poet laureate. Hopefully we'll keep looking.
archpundit 9/27/2003 5:52:58 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Fox Senate Poll
Two leaders emerge, but not by much.
On the Democratic side, Dan Hynes pulls in 10 percent to 9 for Hull, Obama with 8, Chico with 7 and Joyce Washington with 5. The big winner when everyone is at 10 or below? Hull. He is almost tied with two high profile candidates who are both office holders. His commercials and efforts are increasing name recognition which is exactly what he needs to do right now. 40 percent of the Democratic electorate is expressing a favorite candidate so there is a long way to go.
On the Republican side, Jack Ryan hits 10 percent, but you have to wonder if that is due to the Ryan name and sharing a name with a Tom Clancy hero. Ryan is doing well, but that seems a bit inflated.
On the GOP side, dairy and investment magnate Jim Oberweis received 9 percent; retired Air Force Gen. John Borling and lawyer John Cox each had 8 percent; businessman Andrew McKenna took 6 percent, and state Sen. Steve Rauschenberger received 5 percent.
I'm at a bit of loss as to how Borling is up that high, but that may well be due to the small sample size and even smaller differences. Oberweis and Cox both have high name ID so there results aren't surprising. Despite good news from Lege endorsements, Rauschenberger still has a way to go.
archpundit 9/27/2003 5:41:33 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Just call me Mr. DeLay
As is the story lately--later tonight or early tomorrow for the Cattle Call. Sorry for the Delay.
archpundit 9/26/2003 5:01:24 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
50,000 Hits
Thanks, looks like the 50,000 hit came from Kos. Pretty amazing for being up just over a year and being largely centered on state and local politics.
archpundit 9/24/2003 3:33:34 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Stupid Article of the Day at the Leader
Jill Stanek makes the mistake of basing her argument on a document that directly contradicts her claim.
The article she links to is here
Stanek:
This was followed by a detailed report released last month that is quite shocking in its description of just how severe the world underpopulation crisis really is, particularly after we?ve been told the opposite for so long. I suspect the situation is worse than the report indicates, since the study was conducted by the very organization that was duped into causing this calamity in the first place.
Got that? An underpopulation crisis now.
But what does the UN say?:
The 2002 Revision confirms key conclusions from previous revisions. Despite the lower fertility levels projected and the increased mortality risks to which some populations will be subject, the population of the world is expected to increase by 2.6 billion during the next 47 years, from 6.3 billion today to 8.9 billion in 2050. However, the realization of these projections is contingent on ensuring that couples have access to family planning and that efforts to arrest the current spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are successful in reducing its growth momentum. The potential for considerable population increase remains high. According to the results of the 2002 Revision, if fertility were to remain constant in all countries at current levels, the total population of the globe could more than double by 2050, reaching 12.8 billion. Even a somewhat slower reduction of fertility than that projected in the medium variant would result in additional billions of people. Thus, if women were to have, on average, about half a child more than according to the medium variant, world population might rise to 10.6 billion in 2050 as projected in the high variant.
The other factor is that AIDs is having more of an impact than expected.
Whether Stanek is stupid or dishonest is left to the reader.
UPDATE: To make clear, I don't buy catastrophic projections of population growth, but I do think the additional pressures from population are detrimental both environmentally and in terms of world stability. Addressing population growth in developing nations is important to maintain peace and avoid pressures due to overpopulation. She demonstrates no understanding of this and seems to believe the world population would be decreasing significantly. She only devotes on sentence to policy problems in the developed world.
That said, Stanek's article is even worse when you read further down,
But there?s still more. Due to medical advances, and despite the AIDS epidemic, the world population is living longer. This is great, except elder care programs such as Social Security will be unsustainable because there won?t be enough of the younger generation to pay for them.
But never fear. The U.N. proposes the same solution for ?overpopulation? at the end of life as at the beginning, saying, "The proposal is that, if projected life expectancy at the country level turns out to consistently surpass 100 years for both sexes combined, a limit of 100 years will be imposed artificially? (page 35, #96).
For a glimpse of that future, rent the supposedly ?science fiction? 1973 movie classic, Soylent Green, this weekend.
One problem, she is quoting a passage from a section on how to calculate long range projections of mortality. It isn't a policy prescription, it is a methodological note.
archpundit 9/24/2003 2:49:43 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Cattle Call Comment Period
Dems--who is up who is down? Why? Any leads out there?
Cattle call will be up Friday--and other posts will be later tonight.
archpundit 9/24/2003 12:32:15 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Cattle Call Comment Period
Republicans--who is up who is down? Why?
archpundit 9/24/2003 12:28:04 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
What Happened to the Dead Animal on Rauschenberger's Face?
The Illinois Leader covers Steve Rauschenberger's entry into the Senate Race. Steve shaved. He looks good, if a bit uncomfortable with the new look.
I know, deep analysis.
archpundit 9/24/2003 12:16:31 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hynes, Hynes, Hynes
So I've had two different liasons from the Hynes contact me in about 12 hours. One used the better tactic of ignoring anything mildly negative I have said about Hynes, the other tried to spin a little. Both were very gracious though and I appreciate it. Perhaps I should start slagging on other candidates for attention. Hynes announcement speech is uploaded here (MS Word).
His site along with everyone else is listed over at the Senate page which Eric Zorn kindly linked.
I'm not currently taking sides in the Democratic Primary, thus allowing me to be a bit snarky (but not eating my own) to all. I'm leaning towards Obama, but really, any Democrat this side of Vic Roberts who could win the general election is fine with me.
On the down side for me is Hynes is pushing for drug reimportation and is protectionist in his campaign material. But those are traditional Democratic issues on which I often stray from the party line. Overall, I like Dan Hynes and he has been one of the stronger voices for fiscal sanity in Illinois government.
archpundit 9/23/2003 6:23:11 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Powers of Discernment, When Did She Ever Have That?
Eric Zorn joins the pile on of Carol Moseley Braun which I gladly contributed to when she was thinking of getting in the Illinois Senate Race, he writes
"When (Carol Moseley) Braun announced her exploratory campaign in February, she said she wanted to learn whether there was widespread support for her stand as a `peace dove and budget hawk,'" writes Dan Mihalopolous in the Trib today.
If she read any of the many polls --where she's never shown more than single-digit support -- she'd have learned that she's never placed higher than 5th in the crowded field (and that was before Gen. Wesley Clark was a factor).
And if she read her campaign finance statements, as Mihalopolous reported, she'd have seen she'd raised only $217,000, "less than all other candidates except activist Al Sharpton."
Widespread support? Voter enthusiasm for CMB is nearly undetectable. Yet she has swung into actual-campaign mode. So much for her powers of discernment.
I'm pretty sure it was clearly established she had no power of discernment when in reference to the brutal Nigerian dictator Abacha, she said he was a "longtime fighter for human rights." Maybe I'm just picky though.
archpundit 9/23/2003 5:56:13 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Dan Johnson Weinberger's Blog
Dan works for the Midwest Democracy Center, runs this blog, and has a page of good info. He could probably use a bit of design though.
In comments, Dan points out the advantages of cumulative voting or of Irish style instant run-off voting. While I generally agree that such changes are better than a simple first-past the post system in which the plurality wins one seat, I think there are some serious issues to consider that involve both the form of government and the manner in which the electoral system directs institutional preferences.
Cumulative voting is generally a positive thing, though it tends to ignore third party candidates still, but does allow minority voters the ability to elect candidates to gain some representation. The problem being that in strongly partisan areas, all three seats could be picked up with an independent running for the third seat. That is a minor issue in one sense because the minority with even 1/3 of the population would pick up one of three seats in a three seat district as Illinois had. At the time, only a couple independents ran as pseudo-Democrats in Chicago African-American Districts. Depending on the number of members to a district, this may not decentralize the system.
One challenge to any system that would decentralize parties is that it makes a working majority very difficult to cobble together. This is often cited in discussing the problems of stability in Latin American governments. They often utilize a proportional representation system in conjunction with a Presidential system meaning the executive is elected in some variation of first past the post and thus is represents a different group than the legislative body. This can create paralysis.
My argument then would be to utilize a parliamentary system of government where the executive is chosen from the legislature to ensure that the executive has a working coalition under which to cobble a majority together. I believe pushing instant runoff voting in a PR system would be a significant problem under the current organization of every state, even the unicameral in Nebraska. If one wants to spur more parties the manner in which to do it is a limited PR system that I would prefer to look like Germany's, and an executive that is a part of the legislative branch.
At all costs, a fragmented system such as Israel should be avoided. In fact, I think Israel provides an interesting case study. Israel decentralized the party system when it made the Prime Minister separately elected from the legislature. Instead of pushing towards the median voter, large blocks had to look to relatively fringe parties to make a majority and were beholden to their wishes. To make matters worse, Israel has one legislative district meaning that a party gets representation with about 1% of the vote.
Maintaining a center orientation has several advantages. First it keeps from broad swings in policy in short spans of time. Second, it focuses the debate at the center marginalizing extremists such as communists or fascists. Third, if one believes that the median voter occurs around the top of a Bell Curve, it centers government towards the average point in the electorate.
Too much center focus deprives significant, but minority views from representation--that is what we have now. Too little gives extremists too much influence.
I'll be adding Dan to the blog roll soon along with
The Return of Ungodly Politics
The DNC's Kicking Ass
The Windy Pundit
and Greasy Skillet
archpundit 9/23/2003 5:47:20 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Bucky Bush?
You have got to be kidding me?
President Bush's uncle will be heading his re-election effort in Missouri. State Republicans announced today that Bucky Bush of St. Louis will serve as campaign chairman for the Bush-Cheney re-election effort in the Show-Me State.
archpundit 9/23/2003 2:11:14 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Texas Lege Blogburst
Because I've been away from my computer, Charles Kuffner has organized a blogburst to offer advice to the Texas Dems about their next move.
archpundit 9/22/2003 11:16:52 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
G-Rod Invades Canada
For cheap drugs and even picks up Chris Lauzen's support.
The idea is to import cheap drugs from Canada and then resell them in Illinois saving consumers money. On the surface it seems like a no-brainer--after all why should a border make a bid difference in drug costs?
A couple objections have popped up. The first is that Canadians don't have the same safety controls. This is pretty silly assuming the state used Canadian licensed pharmacies. Canadians have high standards and generally this shouldn't be a problem. In those few cases where the rules are different, the state could identify those differences.
The second objection is that by importing drugs from Canada, the State of Illinois would be driving profits down and decreasing the incentive for drug companies to invest in new drugs.
This is a far more serious problem and one not to be ignored. Some of the pharmaceutical company complaints are over the top. For one, many drugs are developed under government subsidy already and many pharmaceutical companies primarily license the drugs and then manufacture them. In such cases, a move by Illinois would have little effect. Additionally, many of the most marketed drugs aren't significant improvements over others. Many of the heavily marketed drugs are of little therapeutic value and so reducing their availability would have little impact. Worse, many of the newest drugs are ineffective. Newly created allergy control drugs often are effective for less than 50% of the population even though they are widely prescribed without that information being conveyed by the doctor. Minor pharmacological changes are made to retain patent rights, but little or no improvement in therapeutic value is made.
For all that, reimportation is a bad idea. The debate centers on the effects of consumers, but it fails to grasp that the problem isn't one of price gouging, but of free trade. Eseentially, the United States prescription drug market is subsidizing research for the rest of the world because the rest of the world drives a hard bargain for low costs. Since the United States doesn't have a centralized buying cooperative those in the market pay higher costs to recoup the costs of development.
To overcome this, the United States has a few options, none of them ideal. First, it could form a collective buying group as a government and then sell the drugs to citizens at the rate they get. The disadvantages are it would drive incentives to develop new drugs down by decreasing profits. That said, so do private drug benefit plans. This would force the costs of development to be spread more evenly across countries though as the pharmaceutical companies would have to raise prices to other countries. The disadvantage to patients is that the government would be designing the formulary. As a chronic allergy sufferer, having Clarinex as my preferred drug over Zyrtec would be a real problem. Clarinex doesn't work for me as it doesn't for over half of the population taking antihistamines. For others the opposite would be true. It would also turn the government formulary into a political list of favored companies--remember Toricelli and Ashcroft extending the patent of Claritin beyond the normal time limit despite no compelling reason?
A second strategy would be to seek WTO sanctions. I'm guessing this would fail, but it would argue that government buying plans are in effect a form of protectionism and thus a violation of free trade agreements. Given my lack of knowledge on how pharmaceuticals are regulated under WTO, I have no idea if this would be or could be effective. And it attacks other governments' legitimate choices concerning the provision of health care.
A third strategy would be to subsidize drug benefits on a sliding scale for those of modest means. This would generally increase prices to everyone, but ensure that the most needy have help.
A fourth strategy, and probably the most likely, is to spur the development of private drug plans and potentially subsidize entry into those plans that exploit their buying power in a price competitive environment for the plans. In a nation of 300 million, it is entirely conceivable that the plans would have the same buying power as nations--in fact, Express-Scripts claims to offer service to 50 million members. Instead of subsidizing every drug purchase, subsidizing entry into such a plan based on income would go along way to closing the gap for those in need of relatively expensive pharmaceuticals.
So Lauzen and G-Rod come together for a bad idea.
archpundit 9/22/2003 11:13:23 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Miller on Iraq
Rich Miller continues reporting from Iraq, with two stories. The first concerns the shooting of Iraqi Police Officers by US troops and offers an interesting analysis of the different skills sets for war and peacekeeping. Remember--that which was mocked by the current administration. A second piece discusses his experiences in Saddam's hometown of Tikrit. Both seem slightly more positive and address interesting angles to Iraq--Good reading.
archpundit 9/22/2003 10:45:42 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Why Do Senators Run for President?
Greg Easterbrook has a great post on why. If you don't laugh, you must be a Senator.
archpundit 9/19/2003 4:44:52 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Eating Your Own
The Leader has two eating your own items with the the Church Lady taking on Judy Baar Topinka amongst others and John Zahm going after Tom Roeser for daring to say nice things about Tom Cross.
Fighting corruption in a party is one thing, fighting for ideological purity....keep it up.
archpundit 9/19/2003 4:31:55 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Republican Cattle Call 9/19
Okay, I didn't do a comment period, but what the hell
1. Jack Ryan. Money, looks and backing from up high. Seems a little awkward talking about specifics, but it is still early. Lots of flash so far, but a good start. Needs more ground support.
2. Andrew McKenna. Lots of connections, cash from the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce and has reduced social conservative concerns over his possible challenge to Fitzgerald and giving money to Democrats. Needs grassroots support, but has some decent buzz.
3. Steve Rauschenberger. Lots of support from fellow Lege members, Hastert and Jim Edgar. Social conservatives like him and he has good budget credentials.
4. Jim Oberweis. While his comparison of social conservatives to Taliban will continue to haunt him, he's slimmed up and has a concurrent Oberweis Dairy campaign underway. He also is reported to have good ground support at state events and is amiable.
5. John Cox. Lots of social conserative support. Not going anywhere. As mentioned previously, primary benefit of campaign will go to political professionals who he keeps employed.
6. Chirinjeev Kathuria. Pretty good buzz going. Apparently a really nice guy and has cash. Maybe an outside surprise. Still has a ways to go.
7. John Borling. Or as I believe it was Jeff Trigg put it, John Boring. Not dynamic, can't speak and pro-choice in a pro-life field. While the last attribute could help in a divided field, he seems to have little traction or buzz going. Resume better than personality.
8. Jonathan Wright. No cash, not much experience and kind of a strange candidacy. Doesn't appear to add to the field.
9. Antonio Davis Fairman. Web site offers his poetry.
archpundit 9/19/2003 2:52:19 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Democratic Senate Roll Call 9/19
1. Dan Hynes. Announced, is doing okay, but not as well as he should be. Some troubling rumbles for him if he doesn't get on the ball. Still in first though. To hold on, needs cash and some visibility.
2. Barack Obama. The media darling-Rich Miller, Kristen McQueary, Steve Neal and many others join the ranks slobbering over him. I do too, so that isn't entirely perjorative. Strong candidate and making strong inroads with the liberal base while keeping independent labor support. Doing well on cash. Big help coming from high limit on individual contributions due to Hull being in the race.
3. Blair Hull. Cash is starting to have an effect and is making some inroads with black clergy in the city. Good rumbles around the campaign amongst Democrats. Still has to shake the rich guy only. Name recognition is going up.
4. Maria Pappas. Not technically in the race yet, but still has the name. No cash or organization yet, make it difficult.
5. Gery Chico. Has cash, not much else. Good guy, but isn't getting much traction beside corporate dollars. The death knell will sound if he fails to keep the fundraising pace with Obama.
6. Nancy Skinner. Weird activist buzz. No cash. No real chance. Probably will have some good one liners during the campaign and certainly adds some color to the race.
7. Joyce Washington. Not much news or activity. Rush backed Hull over her in brouha over whether he was a machine tool. Joyce is nice, but she could be being used by forces larger than herself. Self-financing to a point.
8. Matt O'Shea. I'm sure he is a nice guy.
9. Frank Avila. Huh?
10. Estella Johnson-Hunt Huh? Squared.
11. Vic Roberts. Everyone's favorite crackpot candidate. Can't wait for the Eric Zorn interview.
Hynes is in real danger of losing his status as a frontrunner. Even his kick-off event garnered little attention. He isn't in the news and his on-line presence for activists is nill. He needs a message as well.
For Senate links go to my Senate Page. Illinois Senate is linked as is Eric Zorn's interviews. It will be updated with some regularity.
archpundit 9/19/2003 2:36:00 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Steel Tarrifs Backfire?
Via Political Wire
Oh, the irony of having steel tariffs backfire on the President
Bad policy meets bad politics.
The strategizing was "too clever by half," Bartlett, the economist, said. "It presupposed that nobody was watching what we were doing, and it presupposed that our credibility was of no importance
archpundit 9/19/2003 2:19:14 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
27 Months for The Hog
Roger "the Hog" Stanley gets 27 months in prison due partially to cooperation on the Operation Saferoads probe.
Not too much surprising, but as Eric Zorn points out....Nice Hair Stanley.
archpundit 9/19/2003 2:14:24 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
27 Late Term Appointment Firings Overturned
27 of the last minute appointments by George Ryan who were later fired by G-Rod have been reinstated by the Civil Service Commission
The money quote,
After Thursday's ruling, one of the Ryan appointees, who asked not to be identified, called Blagojevich's action part of the "terrorizing of the government workforce, which is sort of a hallmark of the Blagojevich administration."
G-Rod is appealing.
archpundit 9/19/2003 11:13:26 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
32 Clemencies Challenged
Lisa Madigan is challenging 32 of the death row commutations because the convicted did not request clemency.
At its heart, the case tests the breadth of the clemency provision of the state constitution, which gives the chief executive the power to grant reprieves, commutations and pardons "after conviction for all offenses on such terms as he thinks proper."
Madigan is asking the court to rule that Ryan overstepped the bounds of his authority in handing down some of the commutations and to declare them void.
But during arguments on her petition, justices on both sides of the ideological divide asked sharp questions suggesting they may have concerns about doing that.
Chief Justice Mary Ann McMorrow, a Democrat, said the constitution endows the governor with sweeping authority to grant pardons.
"Aren't you elevating the process over the constitutional broad clemency powers given to the governor?" she asked an attorney for Madigan.
This is a pretty straight-forward fight over separation of powers. Madigan is probably right to challenge the commutations, though on the merits it would appear the Governor has broad latitude.
archpundit 9/17/2003 10:38:20 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Voucher Accountability
My series on urban school issues has been delayed and I hope to return to it soon. However, Education Week reports on Florida increasing the accountability of its voucher program
of Education Jim Horne has already tightened the rules for private schools that accept the vouchers by requiring them to file more information with the state. But the Republican appointee of Gov. Jeb Bush is facing heat from opponents, who claim his agency has been loose with its oversight of voucher money and the schools that receive it.
Allegations in two Florida cities have thrown fuel on the voucher debate.
First, two men were accused of funneling money for a terrorist group through one private school in the program. Then, the state realized $400,000 in scholarship money was missing from an organization in Ocala.
I'm somewhat agnostic on vouchers. I doubt that in most cases they'll have the impact that the more strident supporters suggest. I do think that as long as we have failing schools serving the poorest of the poor we ought to give them an escape valve to those relatively few slots. That said, public money=public accountability.
archpundit 9/16/2003 11:55:47 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Two Zorn Pick-Ups
First, irony is alive. Eric Zorn points out that rumbles concerning Betty Loren-Maltese don't actually exist as Michael Sneed claims.
The irony is in the piece though,
Fact: The job line: Word is Maltese had a prison job and is now working in the landscaping department, where she helps with the accounting.
Fox-Chicken issues.
Second, Eric takes a warranted slap at Dan Zanosa
Dan Zanoza (Illinois Leader), notes in his Media Watch column that the Web-only publication for which he writes is not universally beloved and admired. He cites my reference in Breaking Views to the Leader as "your online home for right-wing rhetoric," and writes, "I seriously wonder if the Illinois Leader and its content were more liberal in nature... would it be drawing fire from individuals like Zorn?" Gee. And I wonder if I were more conservative in nature, would the Leader be publishing letters headlined Zorn Scorn comparing me to a witch doctor and cold oatmeal. Only the difference between me and Zanoza is that I don't seriously wonder this.
One point is lost here, The Illinois Leader's entire existence is because it wants to be 'you online home for right-wing rhetoric.' There is no other reason for it to exist. Why complain when someone points out the obvious.
archpundit 9/16/2003 11:50:14 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Bush and Ballot Access
Jeff Trigg riffs on his favorite subject and he is right.
I don't think ballot access matters that much due to the median voter rule in a first past the post system. However, it should still be fairly administered and in the spirit of democracy. Once minor parties get better ballot access I believe they need to move to electoral reform--something with which I believe Jeff agrees.
archpundit 9/16/2003 11:43:35 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Rauschenberger to Announce Tuesday
Amidst some talk that he is tight on cash. Rauschenberger is going to have to rely upon other State Lege members to build up support given a tight budget. The Lincoln-Douglass Debate with Obama suggestion apparently wasn't made in a vacuum.
archpundit 9/16/2003 11:25:52 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Courting Hispanics...In Bloomington
It is not a joke. Well it is, but it isn't.
archpundit 9/16/2003 11:22:37 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
A Perfect Vignette of the Ryan Years
In pleading not guilty, Arthur Swanson gives us an insight into how politics has long been done in Illinois
Swanson, 77, joked with a reporter about being out of cigars as he arrived at court, promising to bring one for his next appearance.d
And Mayer's lobbying division was involved. Perfect.
archpundit 9/16/2003 11:11:21 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Fat Kids
I was one of them. But the Sun-Times misses an important thing Illinois does right--Physical Education every day, every semester. I think there is still an exception for a Health and Driver's Ed class, but I think those count.
While many PE classes aren't that useful, they can be an essential tool to teaching exercise and health to kids and a good teacher can even motivate kids to enjoy exercise. As I grew older and tired of being slow and huge, I worked out on my own, but later PE classes certainly reinforced those habits.
We won't talk about the last two years...
archpundit 9/16/2003 11:07:49 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Kass is Pretty Much Right,
But Brown was more right. He didn't go on O'Reilly. Kass takes on Jackson Sr. for selling out. Ironically, he didn't sell out to Harold Washington. Why not? Harold kicked his butt out of Chicago. Under Harold, Sr. would have been better taking a job as the toll collector.
archpundit 9/16/2003 10:58:43 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Private Peotone?
The Peotone saga becomes a bit stranger with proponents seeking private financing for the airport.
So no airlines are going to buy in? Yeah. Sure.
Peotone may not be a bad third or fourth airport site. First, Gary should be examined for what extra capacity it can handle and then Peotone will probably be necessary to relieve growing traffic at O'Hare and Midway, both of which will be full not long after the O'Hare expansion. The fifth part of the plan should be exploiting Rockford for freight flights.
The sixth part of the solution is a downstate airport between the five main towns in Central Illinois. Currently, all five operate their own airports. And for small personal aircraft that works. But each city (except Decatur) have a growing desire for easy air travel. A centralized airport would provide significantly more options for the consumers in the area and bring down the high costs associated with only small commuter flights. The problem is that the Congressman from each city don't want such a plan because civic leaders view even a small airport as a point of pride.
Seventh, is high speed rail to reduce the number of short flights. George Will has written a fair amount on that. But part of the initial deal includes Missouri and Missouri isn't going to pay.
archpundit 9/16/2003 10:52:43 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Joe Conason On the Radio/Internet @ 2 PM
Joe Conason will be on a local St. Louis Radio Station WGNU @ 2 PM today. For a hoot tune in @1 for Dr. Pat--sort of a manic Dr. Laura. You can listen in on-line. He'll be talking about his new book
archpundit 9/16/2003 10:20:20 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Democratic Roll Call
Given the posts today, I thought I'd start a second thread for comments on the Democratic Field.
Also,
Miller's two articles on the primary fields,
The Dems\
The Reps
Thanks to Jeff, it was easy tracking them down again
archpundit 9/15/2003 6:00:02 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Updated Blogroll
To the Left you'll notice some new links,
Most importantly,
Greg Easterbrook probably my favorite environmental writer and a man of incredible Breadth has started a blog at The New Republic. He writes Tuesday Morning Quarterback at ESPN.com, and a column at Beliefnet (which appears to be dormant) as well as his normal work at TNR and Atlantic Monthly.
The post that stuck out was his post concerning the ignoring of Bob Riley's motivation for calling for a tax increase. Greg argues it is due to anti-Christian bias in the media. I'm not so sure. I think the media is very uncomfortable with reporting religious matters unless it is salacious---pretty much like most stories. Religion isn't purposely ignored, but it does not usually fit into a neat soundbite.
To make matters worse, no matter what they report, the media is blasted for it.
Other additions (some are recent),
TNR Primary
Open Source Politics
Drug War Rant
The Right Christians
Real Live Preacher
Musclehead
Pacific View
MC Master Chef
The Left Coaster
And at the bottom of the page, the expanded blog roll
archpundit 9/15/2003 5:00:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Tyler Goes to Phonak
After a stunning Tour de France, Tyler Hamilton is going to Phonak Cycling Team
And now, some of you may be scratching your head asking why I would leave the comfort of CSC to go to Phonak. And the answer why, is almost the same as when I left the U.S. Postal Service. They have offered me the opportunity to challenge myself on a new level. Phonak is an up and coming team that has been growing little by little each year. Next year, they are serious about wanting to compete in the Tour de France for the first time. They have restructured their entire team around this goal, and they have asked me to be their leader. It's every rider's dream to have this kind of support and this kind of opportunity. The Phonak roster is being overhauled with the Tour de France as the central focus. You may not recognize all the names at first, but there are some strong guys coming on board who will lend big talent in the mountains and in events like the team time trial. And they are all signing on with a clear understanding and motivation toward the team's vision for next season.
Who was the last American to go to a mediocre team and lead it to victory?
Okay, so Tyler's a bit older.
In other cycling news, Fred Rodriguez came in 4th today and two Postal Riders are in the top 5 overall:
1 Isidro Nozal (Spa) O.N.C.E.-Eroski 33.57.41
2 Igor Gonzalez De Galdeano (Spa) O.N.C.E.-Eroski 1.48
3 Manuel Beltran (Spa) US Postal-Berry Floor 2.01
4 Dario Frigo (Ita) Fassa Bortolo 3.05
5 Roberto Heras (Spa) US Postal-Berry Floor 3.28
What's interesting is that the 19th stage includes two tough climbs and then a time trial. This race should be close to the end and Postal has two climbers near the top.
archpundit 9/15/2003 3:59:06 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Clusterf&%#ing
Instead of trying to catch everyone up on John Lott's latest nonsense myself, Kevin Drum has nicely summarized the more recent developments in Tim Lamberts' righteous crusade to unmask Lott's prevarications.
The simple question to Lott is why did he stop correcting for clustering in the observations. Hear the silence?
archpundit 9/15/2003 1:49:58 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
CHRIS LEHANE RESIGNS FROM KERRY CAMPAIGN...
Sweet. Maybe he can find himself a job outside of Democratic Politics.
Headline from Drudge.
archpundit 9/15/2003 1:32:04 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Eating Your Own
Norquist himself lays down the gauntlet against Republicans by insisting they can't win and raise taxes.
The California recall election on Oct. 7 will give us further evidence of the power of the tax issue in the general electorate and for Republican candidates. Democratic Gov. Gray Davis probably signed his political death warrant when he tripled the car tax through an executive order. And on the Republican side, Arnold Schwarzenegger is refusing -- as Alabama's Gov. Riley did -- to sign the no-tax-hike pledge, thus leaving the door open to tax hikes in case of an "emergency." This has allowed state Republican Sen. Tom McClintock, with little name recognition or money, to hold onto 10 percent to 15 percent of the vote -- enough to keep Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante ahead in the polls.
And that is a good thing for Republicans? Okay. Keep it up.
archpundit 9/15/2003 1:27:16 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Excellent Book Review
Diane at Know Body Knows Anything reviews School of Dreams--I haven't read it, but it is the rare review that makes me want to read something--and I want to read it now.
archpundit 9/15/2003 1:16:36 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Don't Miss the Krugman Piece on Norquist
Krugman did a piece on Norquist and the Tax Cut-Con in Sunday's New York Times. It does a good job laying out the basic economic questions and the problem of relying on 'cutting waste'.
Combine that with Ed Kilgore's article from Blueprint and the stark reality of what society would look like under a Norquist vision should become clear.
The reality is that if you want to run an information based economy, education and infrastructure are key--there won't be much of either under Norquist's plan.
archpundit 9/15/2003 1:09:27 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
New Trier Blues
New Trier's population strongly supports the schools, but last year it was put on the financial watch list. This was a strange comparison given many other school districts were facing dire choices and New Trier was facing a world class education versus a not quite world class education, but better than the rest of the state.
With the new tax bill passed, they are now reducing the tax take for next year. Too bad they can't send that to some rural districts.
archpundit 9/15/2003 1:04:10 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Wright Joins the GOP Party
While ailing I missed the original stories, but Jonathan Wright has joined the GOP Senate Primary Field. He has never been elected to any post before, though he served as an appointed State House. His primary claim to fame is being staunchly pro-life, but in a crowded field of pro-lifers, he's unlikely to go anywhere.
archpundit 9/15/2003 12:58:34 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
What Is Steve Neal Smoking?
Apparenlty fumbling around for a topic to write about, he suggested that Daley endorse Obama.
Uhhh...yeah. And if Daley wasn't Daley....
Maybe he should start writing What if books.
archpundit 9/15/2003 12:50:21 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
One of the Better takes on the Patriot Act
Slate did an excellent four part analysis of the Patriot Act and reached a conclusion that the biggest problem centers on the lack of accountability and openness.
The best check on such encroachments should be a free and objective judiciary. But as we have noted several times in this series, many of the most disturbing Patriot provisions do away with judicial oversight altogether, while others permit judges to act as rubber stamps in ex parte proceedings?that is, hearings where only the government side is represented.
The next best check on such encroachments is public scrutiny, and, as we've suggested, that scrutiny is only beginning to be as demanding and impatient as it ought. But most Americans still do not believe that Patriot has in any way affected them. So it's worth noting that many of these provisions are used frequently?even if details are blacked out. Go back and look at the sections that ask whether you'd know if Patriot has been used against you. In most cases the answer is no.
When government is given broad power to act in secrecy, it always, always goes to far. The only ways to check those abuses is to tailor necessary security laws to be as narrow as possible when public scrutiny or judicial oversight is limited. The current version doesn't do that. It isn't hysterical to warn of future abuses when we have a long history of abuses when government acts in secret.
archpundit 9/15/2003 12:42:45 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Rebels and Indians
Eric Zorn addresses the Confederate Flag and Mascot being used by a high school in Southern Illinois. I agree with Zorn and Temkin, but the obvious point is that the University of Illinois still has a cartoon caricature of a mascot. It isn't that the Illini use a Native American name, it is that the mascot acts like a fool in a costume. If we want to get school districts to see the importance of evaluating their mascots, shouldn't our flagship educational institution do the same?
archpundit 9/15/2003 12:27:01 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Architecture Criticism for the Masses
And a good point about the renovations of Soldier Field
It has been said that the result looks like a spaceship landed on the stadium, a charge I will not endorse for fear of being sued for libel by extraterrestrials. But it is safe to say that the project is the most jarring union of youth and age since Anna Nicole Smith married an 89-year-old billionaire.
Key quote,
"If we started out to build the ugliest stadium in the country for the most money with the fewest alternative uses in the worst possible location, we're pretty much there."
Dandy.
Bears President Ted Phillips says the new model also has an intimate feel--which is true, and which comes from the fact that seating capacity is nearly 5,500 less than before. With 61,500 seats, it's the second smallest stadium in the league after the RCA Dome in Indianapolis.
In other ways, though, it's inferior to that facility, which cost just $77 million to erect back in 1984. The price tag on the new Soldier Field is a staggering $632 million, of which $432 million will come from tax revenues. Unlike the RCA Dome, which has been used for everything from the NCAA Final Four to the World Indoor Track and Field championships, this facility is open to the elements, which will limit its uses in a Chicago winter.
Nor does the Soldier Field deal look like a bargain next to other renovations. Green Bay's recent overhaul of Lambeau Field not only cost less than half as much, but added 11,000 seats. Lambeau offers more luxury boxes and a lot more toilets than Soldier Field. Lambeau also has something that the Bears' arena traditionally and currently lacks: a winning team.
But the Packers' lair doesn't have the distinctions that make the new Soldier Field a true marvel. As University of Chicago sports economist Allen Sanderson puts it, "If we started out to build the ugliest stadium in the country for the most money with the fewest alternative uses in the worst possible location, we're pretty much there."
Oh, and Bears lose.
archpundit 9/15/2003 11:42:14 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Dennis Byrne Rages
And it is a pretty good column on the problem with farm subsidies.
It's quite disappointing when Dennis makes a good point. Doing so reduces the amount of snarky material available.
Not long ago, the massive charitable dispensations for farmers were supposed to end with the passage of the Freedom to Farm Act. Something odd happened, though; the subsidies became more generous. So American farmers, driven by subsidies, plant more crops than they can sell on the domestic or foreign market. Not to worry, the U.S. government arrives with what is, in effect, a double subsidy, buying up the surplus and giving it away to hungry or impoverished countries. Humanitarian? Possibly. Crass? Certainly. Counterproductive? Absolutely. It undercuts those countries' own farmers' ability to sell their crops, weakens their infrastructure and makes them ever more dependent on food handouts.
archpundit 9/15/2003 11:31:58 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Clinton Joins the Save the Jackass Campaign
I believe the Democrats in California are pursuing the anti-recall strategy all wrong. Just admit that Gray is an jackass and then embrace him as the duly elected jackass.
What is telling is that in Clinton's remarks he focuses on teh process and challenges instead of upon Davis
Yeah, Gray Davis and I have been friends a long time, and I don't want this to happen to him," Clinton said in the church, amid a chorus of affirmation from about 1,000 congregants and the purple-robed choir. "But this is way bigger than him."
"It's you I worry about," he continued. "It's California I worry about. I don't want you to become a laughingstock, a carnival or the beginning of a circus in America where we just throw people out, soon as they make a tough decision. Don't do this. Don't do this."
"Don't shred your Constitution," he said. "Don't shred the fabric of government. Don't tell people Californians are so impatient that they give somebody an employment contract and then tear it up in the middle because times are tough. This is the right thing to do, to beat this recall."
archpundit 9/15/2003 11:15:06 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Obama's Finances Are Up
Obama would seem to be primarily dependent upon his base when one looks at traditional African-American candidates who raise reasonable sums in Illinois, but often work towards turnout more than big money. Obama seems to be overcoming that with some impressive fundraising numbers (Registration required).
Two interesting things stand out. I didn't realize the ceiling was that high--$12,000 per individual given Hull is self-financing. That is huge. Second, Obama is having success reaching out of state for cash and that significantly helps him in taking on Hynes who is trying to dry up the local pool of cash for this election.
While I doubt Obama could do as well as Dean on the internet, I'm noticing a lot of crossover appeal to their supporters. Such a strategy might help Obama as well, though certainly at a different scale.
Because Mr. Hull has signaled his intention of putting as much as $20 million of his own money into winning the primary, the recently enacted campaign finance reform law allows individuals to give up to $12,000, six times the normal legal limit, to his opponents.
"I find it easy" to raise money for the Obama campaign, says Bettylu Saltzman, a veteran North Shore Democratic fund-raiser and a member of Mr. Obama's finance committee. "You say, 'You can give $12,000' and you might get $2,000, where otherwise you'd get $500."
Another factor is that Mr. Obama has tapped into a growing number of young, affluent African-American professionals, not only in Chicago but also in Boston, New York and Washington, D.C., major cities that have hosted Obama fund-raisers in recent months.
A basic part of the appeal is that Sen. Obama has the potential to be both the sole African-American U.S. senator at this point in time, as well as the first black Democratic male senator. In addition, this group of potential contributors grew considerably as the economy boomed during the 1990s.
"The pool is definitely larger," says Valerie Jarrett, who is chairing Sen. Obama's 52-person finance committee, comparing this race with that in 1992, when the executive vice-president of Habitat Co. and prominent civic leader was a major fund-raiser for Illinois Democrat Carol Moseley Braun in her first U.S. Senate race.
While more than two-thirds of Mr. Obama's 3,000-plus donors have given less than $25, he's also picking up major financial support from traditional Democratic contributors, sometimes referred to as "lakefront liberals." His finance committee includes party stalwarts such as Marjorie Benton, Irving Harris, Martin Koldyke, Daniel Levin, Abner Mikva, Newton Minow, Penny Pritzker and John Schmidt.
archpundit 9/15/2003 11:09:01 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Introducing Deanasms
One of the better aspects of last nights episode of K Street, was when Begala and Carville told Dean not to answer hypotheticals and used Bush's insistence as an example of political discpline--he's learning, well sort of.
Slate's Editor Jacob Weisberg runs a hysterical bit on Bushisms finding the best of the President's malapropisms. Some, such as Eugene Volokh get a bit huffy about them, while they are generally harmless fun. In that spirit is seems to me that Dean is good at having verbal spasms that lend themselves to poking fun as well--let's call them Deanasms.
Here's the first.
"One thing about being a doctor is that I don't often speculate about something I don't know," Dean, a physician, said in an interview with the Tribune earlier this month. "That's a very dangerous thing to do . . . so I basically trained myself not to do it. If you have no decent evidence, I don't think you should talk about it."
Earlier in the same day, though, Dean pointedly accused the White House of having its hand in the effort to recall California Gov. Gray Davis. When pressed, he acknowledged he had no evidence to support his claim.
Jeff Zeleney has a dry sense of humor.
archpundit 9/15/2003 10:56:06 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Spending W/out Legislative Authorization?
It appears to be shifting around revenue, but it still isn't comforting to know that the G-Rod administration is going to spend the $775 million from the feds without running it by the Lege.
In a related story Stateline covers the accounting gimmicks that various states, including Illinois used, to balance their budgets. Accelerating revenues doesn't increase revenue, it only shifts it around.
archpundit 9/15/2003 10:45:32 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Karl Rove Hispanic Effort Or Just Damn Funny
Via Atrios
The Karl Rove Hispanic Effort Continues in Earnest
ANNAPOLIS, Md. (AP) The Maryland Republican Party moved Saturday to sever its ties with the Maryland Hispanic Republican Caucus after the caucus chairman criticized Gov. Robert Ehrlich for not appointing Hispanics to high-level jobs.
The party's executive committee voted 20-1 with two abstentions to recommend that the state central committee rescind a resolution recognizing the caucus as an affiliate of the state party. It also voted to create a new organization to reach out to Hispanic voters.
archpundit 9/15/2003 10:14:31 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Senate Resources
A few great resources for the 2004 Illinois Senate Race are linked at the Senate site, but I wanted to point out some in particular
Modern Vertebrate
Great guide to the Senate and House races
Illinois Senate seems to be the central site for quality information on the 2004 Race.
Eric Zorn's Senate Page including Interviews with several of the contenders.
archpundit 9/15/2003 1:41:17 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Illinois Senate Central
While I'm not fully done, I have started a page for the Illinois Senate Race.
There won't be many posts over there, but I will archive some Senate posts and most importantly--the Weekly Roll-Call for who is up and who is down--I know, I know this hasn't been too sucessful, but I think I have it now.
So--in comments or in e-mail send me your take on the Democratic Candidates. Republicans will be later in the week. As soon as Daily Southtown is working correctly, I'll link to Rich Miller's recent columns on the candidates from both parties.
archpundit 9/15/2003 1:27:50 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hynes Announces
He announced today in Chicago
archpundit 9/15/2003 1:22:27 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hull News and Oops
Not been feeling very well, but this was passed on last week,
Blago is saying "let the best cnadidate win." (So what: that's a page out of the much used Daley play-book.) But Blago's father-in-law remains on Hull's kitchen cabinet and he and Rush have begun already talking about how to use their respective operations to assist Hull in the City.
archpundit 9/15/2003 12:43:56 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Busy Day Tomorrow
Out Tomorrow until late---have some John Lott updates and maybe some news on Blagojevich. Check Out Tim Lambert if you want the Lott story now. At the left in the blog roll.
archpundit 9/10/2003 11:18:35 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Rich Miller In Iraq
As I mentioned the other day, Rich Miller is reporting in Iraq currently. His reporting isn't the big picture stories of the nightly news, but personal reporting of the daily lives of Iraqis and how the invasion and occupation affect them and then putting that into context of the larger context. While such reporting doesn't get the cliched 'whole story', for those that have spent time in the Developing World, it is critical to understanding day to day life and how US actions are affecting the country. Both stories are quite moving. (hmmmm....far too nice--have to find something in Miller's work to criticize soon)
Postwar Iraq Moves Dangerously Close to Civil Disaster
Disappearing? Iraqis
UPDATE: I received a complaint that Miller's articles aren't balanced and that a better article would be Max Boot's.
First, I don't think that all articles should be balanced--in fact, given that no single story catches the full picture, a well written story captures an important element of the story. I think those of us in the US need to hear very personal stories that tell of the problems. They are ultimately anecdotes and I expect intelligent readers to understand this. But more importantly, the Boot article has the same problem--Boot spent his time with US Soldiers giving him a skewed view--meaning neither should be taken as a single point of truth. There are two reasons to point out the Miller articles--one is that they are by a local journalist, and two, because Americans have a hard time imagining what life is like if you are an Iraqi right now. I think those articles capture some of the situations Iraqis are going through.
Taken together, I think the Boot and Miller articles provide a couple key points. First, civilian control is where we need to head. Abizaid's report specifies this. Second, the tactics being used may be problematic at times--as noted in Miller's piece, but also mentioned in Boot's with the discussion of regular army unit tactics in keeping control.
Second, I think Boot is missing a key point. Him and the amorphous media reports he criticizes are wrong about this being analagous to Vietnam. This is an occupation of country with no sovereign not a limited war against insurgents in a country with a functioning government. We are the sovereign and producing civil order should have been the top priority--and while we need to move torwards civilian rule, we first have to establish civil order and then support it. It seems hard to argue that we didn't and still don't need more troops. First, to produce civil order and then to rotate them in and out. Those can be American or UN troops, but they have to create a climate of order. We didn't do that at first, because our troops were busy finishing off the Iraqi army. More troops would have reduced this problem. More troops would reduce this problem now. But now we are prolonging the issues because we didn't get it right at first.
archpundit 9/10/2003 12:43:20 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Truly Great News
Berkeley Breathed is starting a new comic for Opus
archpundit 9/09/2003 10:59:06 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Open Meetings Law, errr..enforced
Being a bit behind, I haven't had time to link to Lisa Madigan's shocking enforcement of the open meetings law.
Within the past week, both Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Cook County State's Attorney Richard Devine have told the CTA board it violated the Illinois Open Meetings Act on Aug. 6.
Apparently she was serious,
Madigan, the daughter of state Democratic Party chief and Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, fired the first shot across the CTA's bow.
She announced last week that attorneys for her office had told the CTA board to either void the pension fund hikes or she would file a lawsuit to nullify its Aug. 6 action.
I asked Sean Denny, a former assistant Illinois attorney general, who for nearly two decades was in charge of enforcing the Open Meetings Act, if he could ever recall the attorney general filing a lawsuit against Chicago or one of its agencies.
His answer was, "No."
Lisa Madigan ran for the office of attorney general vowing to aggressively enforce the state's sunshine laws, and eight months into her first term she's been good to her word.
Who knew?
Kudes to Dick Devine too...
archpundit 9/08/2003 10:55:28 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Rich Miller's Photos from Iraq
For those not aware, Rich Miller is reporting from Iraq. I'll post some links to the stories which are good when I see them appear in the papers. They capture a very basic level of what is going on in Iraq more than most of the mega picture diddling about the President's, ahem, 'plan'. He has some pics posted at the Capitol Fax.
In his weekly column, he has a good piece on the Republican Senate candidates. Most notably, he has nice things to say about Kathuria.
archpundit 9/08/2003 10:50:33 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Sawicky on a Tear
First, he thanks Ted Kennedy for keeping Bork off the bench. Why?
Judge Bork's last point is that the new rule of judges is international. "Judicial imperialists" made a crucial start at the Nuremberg Trials of Nazi leaders. The trials established a bad habit of confusing moral justification (Goering deserved what he got) with legal justification for retroactive lawmaking. It would have been better simply to execute the big Nazis, as Britain proposed at the time. Nuremberg established the idea that legal busy bodies can run the world according to their own notion of virtue, and it was only a few short steps to the World Court and the International Criminal Court. This argument is so sweeping as to sound paranoid -- but paranoids are not always wrong . . . "
That's just amazing.
Even more amazing, Sawicky even thinks the deficit is going to be too bigh. I now stand corrected if I teased him about never seeing a deficit he didn't like.
archpundit 9/08/2003 10:28:02 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
What If My Dissent Is for More Troops
Rumsfeld pulls a hell of a number today, playing the dissent is emboldening our enemies.
Mr. Rumsfeld did not mention any of the domestic critics by name. But he suggested that those who have been critical of the administration?s handling of the war in Iraq and its aftermath might be encouraging American foes to believe that the United States might one day walk away from the effort, as it has in past conflicts.
Ted (Thank God He's Back) Barlow then gives us the appropriate reference to Peter Pan.
The problem I have is that I don't know how I'd be emboldening our enemies when I'm calling on the Friggen' President to actually go after them in both Afghanistan and Iraq with more troops--foreign or domestic. Funny, but it would seem that I'm calling for a stronger response, as are most of the Democratic candidates, and a real commitment. How does that criticism encourage our foes? By pointing out the twit in the White House is a paper tiger?
archpundit 9/08/2003 10:10:19 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Dude, That's Your Base
Saint Louis has been blessed with a visit from Al Sharpton who has taken the side of supporters of a boycott against the Saint Louis Public Schools. He came into town last night for a church rally and joined a group of protesters carrying a child in coffin on a route to City Hall this morning. That's gonna cost someone a whole lot of therapy.
The boycott was unsuccessful with about 4.5% more students attending the first day of school this year over last. While not as strong of a day as school management had hoped for, it is improvement. It's important to note that nearly 10% of students are in transitional housing or homeless in the SLPS and beyond that, nearly many schools have 25% mobility rates during the year, so moving around during the summer is a challenge to many families.
The boycott supporters include local radio show host and obnoxious twit, Lizz Brown. She attempted a stand down campaign in 2002 against Jean Carnahan to no noticeable affect in the ward vote totals. She is generally disliked by most black political leaders with the exception of a couple Northside alderman.
But the important news for Al is that he is lashing out at his base. He attacked St. Louis' black leadership that generally opposed the boycott by calling them rented negros and Uncle Tom's. While such language might buy him a few votes amongst the nihilist faction of St. Louis Black Politics, he isn't going to win a majority of the black vote who he is calling, well, rented negros.
Taking on your base ala Sister Souljah is a useful technique. Pissing on your base's leg is generally just unproductive.
What's Al's strategy then? Get on Tv?
archpundit 9/08/2003 9:43:13 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Abortion Polls
Polling is poorly understood by most and, believe it or not, it is best understood in horse races. It is worst understood when discussing public policy because all too often the issues are skewed by poorly formed questions and especially in abortion, those polls ask questions that try to draw conclusions about political questions from questions that elicit moral responses.
It shouldn't be surprising that people differentiate between what should be good public policy and what is moral behavior. While people often hold inconsistent or even silly beliefs, when you probe people can differentiate between the two spheres. The problem is most polls are limited by money and thus, limited in what they can probe. Even beyond that, depending on what comes to mind to an individual will influence their response to a specific question.
Eric Zorn takes Dennis Byrne to task over misusing public opinion polls on abortion.
Yes, but they also show that most people--consistently about 60 percent -- feel the abortion decision should be between the woman and her doctor, and that the percentage of people who feel that abortion should legal under any circumstances is always higher than the percentage of people who feel it should always be illegal.
Many people who are for abortion rights are uncomfortable with abortions. That isn't inconsistent, it is a recognition of living in a complicated world. For a group that wants limited government, conservatives often miss that people place higher barriers to government intervention in their personal lives than in other areas.
archpundit 9/08/2003 2:06:57 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
49-7
The Numerical Equivalent of Dick Jauron praying for a quality postseason from the Sox and the team that won't be named for fear of jinx.
5 sacks? I didn't see the game, but for crying out loud, what the %$#%, is Neil Armstrong coaching again?
You'll be playing in a toilet bowl, you aren't supposed to flushed down the toilet.
archpundit 9/08/2003 1:29:06 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Novak Confused that Lugar isn't a Hack
While I'm sure if I go back and refight the 1980s Dick Lugar and I would have many disagreements over Latin American policy, but today, I view him as a very reasonable voice on foreign affairs. Not surprisingly, the administration is scared of him and his sober assessments of the situation in Iraq.
Novak sounds the alarm that Lugar is off the reservation and suggests that something dark is happening. Actually nothing dark is happening, Lugar is just serious and thinks the President should level with the public and put together a serious plan. Lugar has had to shame the President to do the right thing on Russian non-proliferation and now he has to do it again. And he'll probably do it on Afghanistan. Will the administration listen? Probably not. That's too bad, Lugar would be Secretary of State in a sane Republican world. Of course, there is a sane SoS now and it doesn't matter.
archpundit 9/08/2003 11:34:03 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Chick is BACK
Via Scoobie
A new tract has been posted
It's a doozy. As Scoobie says, the Chickster really puts the fun in fundamentalism in this one.
archpundit 9/08/2003 11:27:57 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Rauschenberger's Not Normal
And that is probably a good thing. He wants a series of debates against Barack Obama.
Rauschenberger is a smart guy and that would be a good debate. For a variety of reasons, it probably doesn't help Obama and so it won't happen. Instead we'll probably see a bunch of priviliged nitwits debate Rauschenberger in a very tight format that sheds no light on just how vacuous most of the Republican candidates are.
An interesting end note to the article is Rauschenberger's comments on trade,
As a U.S. senator, Rauschenberger would lobby the White House for fairer trade. The quid pro quo for free trade is that everybody does better when lanes are open, he says, but we are now confronted by ''central governments like China, where they control currency valuation.'' That is not a free market system, he says. ''It's costing good Illinois jobs, and we've had too much of it.''
Its also good for consumers, but what the hell. China will open its markets when it has to and the way to do that is be open as possible to them.
archpundit 9/08/2003 11:21:28 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Steve Chapman's Continuing Crusade for Sanity
Strangely enough, doing very little to combat forest fires is probably the best way to avoid more fires. Cheaper too. Go figure.
Why do we make such efforts to prevent something that has been part of the life cycle of forests for eons? Because today, there are rising numbers of homes and people in the path of these fires. But trying to save those houses by drowning wildfires is like trying to prevent shipwrecks by outlawing storms. Just as boats can be designed to withstand violent turbulence, dwellings can be made to survive even huge infernos.
archpundit 9/08/2003 10:43:27 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Why Dean is so Appealing
Lieberman can keep making whiny comments about a Dean Depression all he wants, but Dean can win. And hence, Lieberman needs to shut up because he is going to endorse the party's candidate or become very, very unpopular with his core supporters. It's fine to criticize other's positions, but a sound bite like that could come back in a general election. Given George Bush seems to be about as protectionist as Gephardt, this one is probably a freebie, but it isn't acceptable.
People don't care if you have a long thought out position or if you contradict yourself from time to time. They care that they can understand you and for that to happen you have to boil everythign down to simple, understandable positions.
In 15 minutes, he attempted to make up for 15 months of misleading the American people and 15 weeks of mismanaging the reconstruction," he said.
Before people start blasting away in comments, I think Dean should be clearer on trade. One of the many reasons I won't vote for Gephardt is his tendency towards protectionism. However, Dean isn't saying much different from Clinton on the issue and frankly, I'll take Clinton's trade policy over Reagan or either Bush.
In other news, half of the pain caucus is leaning towards endorsing Lieberman. Bob Kerrey wants someone who is going to tell a safe Democratic audience that they are wrong. That's nice and certainly Clinton pulled that in 1992. But when did he do it? When independent voters were listening, not during the primary.
Kerrey is a favorite of mine and I voted for him in the 1992 primary--he was out by the time Illinois voted, but I had sent in an absentee ballot. But he is a horrible campaigner and this is why. And it is why Lieberman doesn't get it. You have to excite the base and the way to do that is to speak to their issues. Once you have done that you can have your Sister Souljah moments. But the base has to trust you first.
Via Atrios again
archpundit 9/08/2003 9:59:15 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Save the Ass.
It's a little hard to care about Gray Davis when he pulls a stunt like bashing Schwarznegger for his accent. He's a jackass and ultimately that is why he is being recalled. He may pull it out, or more likely Bustamante will win the recall, but the ultimate problem in California is that Gray Davis long ago sold his soul to the devil. Making compromises to win elections is one thing, selling the state out to contributors and then indiscriminately bashing anyone is just nihilism.
Would I vote for recall? Probably not. Save the ass for stable democracy.
Via Atrios
archpundit 9/08/2003 9:48:58 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Credit Where it Isn't Due
Tim Lambert cites Tom Spencer's argument that the damage done by Lott is a lot of laws passed allowing Concealed Carry are due to academic fraud by Lott.
This is liberal gobbleygook and as a good liberal I feel it is necessary to point it out. Do you think the NRA would not have pushed as hard without John Lott's claims? Do you think anyone actually cared about his work? They may have cited it, but does anyone think it mattered?
Concealed Carry legislation is a fight between two interests that use any tool available to achieve their goals. Lott was a tool---well is a tool, but that is another story. His work doesn't matter much in the debate over concealed carry. People don't decide issues based on an academic study, they do it over what they perceive their interests to be.
That doesn't let Lott off the hook, it just gives him the credit he is due--not much. The NRA deserves the credit for being a politically sophisticated organization that delivers lots of single-issue voters to politicians.
Academics like to claim credit for moving the debate, but mostly, academics provide some window dressing on hot button issues for those with interests to exploit. Less sexy policy areas are often affected by policy entrepeneurs, but guns or welfare studies are mostly tools for politicians to exploit .
UPDATE: Tom points out that isn't what he was saying. My bad.
archpundit 9/08/2003 12:56:41 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Career Suggestions
Forensic Science is a growth industry. Most states are moving towards DNA tests for most convicts and more will be when the state fiscal problems subside.
archpundit 9/08/2003 12:47:12 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
IKEA in Beijing
Because I keep forgetting, check out Kurt's pics of the opening of an IKEA in Beijing.
That is cool. BTW, Kurt, what will it take me to get put on the banned site list for China--it seems like a list I want to be on--well except for you not being able to read.
archpundit 9/08/2003 12:18:48 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Updated Links
I still have to fix a few, but I've added some Illinois Links and I added a bunch of blogs for Democratic Presidential Candidates. A couple might have kinks in them.
For the rest of the blogroll--if you disappeared, it is a temporary thing.
I'm still fixing the rest of the blogroll.
archpundit 9/05/2003 6:01:05 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Lies
The man is a freak. Big Freak. Kevin at Calpundit hits him with the most recent lie. Lott is claiming he never used the Mary Rosh pseudonym in e-mail. How friggen stupid is this guy? That is how Julian Sanchez caught him!
But Kevin points out
Aside from the fact that this does nothing except make Lott look like an obsessive anal retentive anyway, it's also a baldfaced lie. Lott did use the Mary Rosh pseudonym in emails, including four that he/she sent to me. They're all sitting right here in my Outlook inbox, including his final one on January 22 titled "Sorry," in which he fessed up to his deception.
Kevin and I have both tried to converse with Lott and it resembles an exercise in nailing jello to the wall.
On the other hand, Tim Lambert shouldn't send me things I'm likely to read while trying to work. Primarily because everyone around me wonders why I'm laughing so loud while trying to write a paper,
More Carrying, Less Brandishing. Some of the humor is for stat geeks, but is generally accessible to all with a sense of incredulousness.
archpundit 9/05/2003 12:32:05 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hynes and Labor
Reader comment on the Neal Labor column,
For once, it seems, Neal writes a column that required thought, but, unfortunately, he didn't take it far enough. Does anyone seriously believe that Dan Hynes would have any labor support this early (that James Hoffa would come to town and endorse an Illinois Comptroller not known anywhere outside of IL for the U.S. Senate) were it not that his dad, Tom Hynes, wasn't a major power-broker on the DNC. At least Obama has a labor voting record to defend; and Hull has a labor history to guide his thinking. What does Hynes bring to the table: his years as a Notre Dame undergrad, as a Loyola law student, his father-greased slide into public office? What? Hynes's endorsements reflect two things: his father's power and many peoples' worry about their city and county livelihoods.
Pretty much. I'm not quite as hard on Hynes, but yeah, the only reason labor is rallying around him is his father. Obama probably is most deserving though Hull and Pappas are good on labor issues. From the union's perspective, they've bought into the inevitability campaign and they want to back a winner.
My problem with Hynes is he isn't attacking the President's agenda instead opting for a play it safe campaign--that may cost him in the primary.
archpundit 9/03/2003 2:19:00 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
How to Attack Obesity
No personal cracks out there, but Linda Armstrong points out that enhancement funding in the highway bill is an effective way to encourage exercise and promote independence. Oh, and reduce air pollution and the such. One of the mistakes of highway funding is ignoring alternatives. This is a relatively cheap program that has great results.
What can you do?
Please take the time to call or fax your congressperson today or tomorrow (http://www.house.gov ). Your call will help restore Enhancements to the 2004 transportation budget and show our representatives how much support there is bicycle-related issues as we move ahead with TEA-21 re-authorization.
Between now and Thurs, Sept 4th, 2003, please forward this alert to any appropriate individuals, groups, or email lists who are concerned with bicycle or pedestrian issues.
More information available at the Bike League. From some listservs it sounds like Congress is getting lots of calls--Akins' office included.
Neil Pierce also covers the issue in his column, passed on to a listserv by Brian Marston
The federal government's signature program to promote pedestrian andbikeway transportation alternatives -- ways to spare us a 100-percent asphalt future -- teeters on the edge of extinction in a U.S. House vote scheduled this Thursday.
The House will have to decide whether to restore funding for the
Transportation Enhancements program, a favorite of environmentalists and
local communities, that its Appropriations Committee left unfunded in favor of still more billions for standard highway projects.
Ironically, the moment of decision follows release of major new
research scientifically linking, for the first time ever, the United States' pattern of highway-driven, sprawling, road-dependent development with the alarming epidemic of rising weight and obesity that the country's been experiencing.
The peer-reviewed study, published in the American Journal of Health Promotion and the American Journal of Public Health, relies on federal Census figures and health data based on 200,000 Americans living in 448 metropolitan area counties. Its finding: Americans who live in spread out, totally auto-dependent communities routinely walk less, weigh more (an average of six pounds), and are more prone to high blood pressure than residents of the most densely populated places.
A less-noticed, companion piece of research, published
simultaneously by the American Journal of Public Health, suggests there is a public policy solution to the dilemma of spread-out development that makes us ever more auto-reliant sedentary, fatter, and unfit.
Tested for several decades in Europe, the alternative stresses
serious government investments in expanded walkways and bikeways, making
intersections safer for pedestrians, establishing physical barriers to fast city and town auto traffic and planning villages and communities friendlier to pedestrians.
The Dutch more than doubled their already massive network of bike
paths and lanes between the '70s and '90s, while the Germans almost tripled the extent of their bikeway network. Almost all paths were connected with practical destinations for everyday travel -- town centers, schools, parks, office complexes, light rail stops -- rather than the recreation attractions most popular for bike paths in the U.S.
Companion traffic-calming measures -- first reported in this column from Delft, the Netherlands, in 1978 -- feature zigzag curves, speed bumps and artificial dead ends that give pedestrians, cyclists and playing children as much use to residential streets as motor vehicles.
The results, report John Pucher of Rutgers University and Lewis
Dijkstra of the European Commission in Brussels, are spectacular. With a
more hospitable environment for non-auto travel, walking and cycling account for 34 percent of urban trips in Germany, 46 percent in the Netherlands.
By contrast, only 10 percent of Americans used foot or bike for urban trips in the '70s, and by 1995 the figure was down to a mere 6 percent. Even Canada, more like us geographically, now registers almost twice our number of walking and biking trips.
Walking and cycling have yielded the Europeans the health results
you'd expect -- much lower rates of obesity, diabetes, and hypertension than the United States. With that come healthy life expectancies 2.5 to 4.4 years longer than the U.S., even though European per capita health expenditures are only half ours.
With U.S. obesity levels rising rapidly and our gigantic baby boom
generation soon to reach its retirement years, sensible federal policy would be to emulate the European practices and make walking, cycling and transit options at least the equal of outlays for standard roads and bridges.
Instead, the Republican majority on the House Appropriations
Committee wants to decapitate the enhancements program, which amounts to
just 10 percent of federal transportation funding anyway.
The decision clearly doesn't sit well with Democrats, who are almost unanimous for the enhancements. Nor, it turns out, with Rep. Tom Petri (R-Wis.), chair of the Transportation subcommittee considering renewal of TEA-21, the country's basic transportation law, which expires Sept. 30. Petri warns that if enhancements are killed, the broad coalition of interests that now favor the entire TEA-21 renewal package may collapse.
There's little doubt most Americans favor transportation choices. A nationwide poll last spring, for example, showed 53 percent favor increased federal spending on bicycle facilities -- new paths, reserved lanes, better signals -- even if it means that less collected in gas taxes goes to new road construction.
Check Europe again and you see the massive potential payoff. We
have hostile main arteries, fewer sidewalks and strip malls hazardous to
unmotorized visitors. On a per-mile basis, an American pedestrian is threetimes more likely to get killed and a cyclist two times more likely to get killed than his German counterpart.
Provide safe environments and peoples' behavior does change. Germans and Dutch 75 and older, for example, make half their trips on foot or bike, compared to 6 percent of Americans 65 or older. Result: valuable physical exercise, independence, socializing, enhanced quality of life.
Please, Congress, think again!
archpundit 9/03/2003 1:16:59 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Pappas Late Entry Is Tactics
Lynn Sweet covers the Pappas' strategy and it seems clear she is making a run. I'm not so convinced a late entry helps, but it might work with some momentum building polls right after announcement. Her hope has to be that Obama and Hull don't start raising their name recognition enough in the mean time to drag down her numbers.
Also, Mellisa Bean is taking another crack at Phil Crane.
archpundit 9/03/2003 12:31:48 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
IL Senate: AFL-CIO Endorsement
3 Way Shuffle for the AFL-CIO endorsement in Illinios, may create no endorsement. Obama, Hynes, and Hull all have strong records. If Hynes doesn't get it, it is definitely a chink in the armor of the inevitability campaign.
archpundit 9/03/2003 12:23:19 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Send Regards to Greg Blankenship
He broke his finger of which I rack up to normal clodness in my life, I have no idea if Greg suffers the same level of clumsiness or if Ii'm projecting. More importantly, his grandfather died and it sounds like he had a relationship with his grandfather similar to my relationship with my grandfather. My sympathies to Greg.
archpundit 9/03/2003 12:06:12 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Capitol Fax Ranks the Dems
In the Senate Race and I'm pretty much in agreement. Obama is the tough one in the primary though as he should naturally have the largest single base, but other factors counter that.
archpundit 9/02/2003 11:55:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Eating Your Own
Ideological Purity becomes the 2004 Theme for the Illinois Circular Firing Squad Team (AKA Republican Party) as Joe Weigand targets Dave Wirsing. It would appear that the right wing of the Republican Party thinks they live in Alabama and not Illinois. The winner in such challenges may not be a Democrat specifically, but it will certainly be the Illinois Democratic Party.
Unless, of course, someone wants to demonstrate that Anthony Downs and the Median Voter Theorem were incorrect.
archpundit 9/02/2003 11:41:23 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Editing, Illinois Leader, Editing
While a good stream of conscious rant is great for a blog, couldn't the Illinois Leader bother forcing Joyce to have a thesis statement?
Just a suggestion.
archpundit 9/02/2003 11:35:03 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Cheeky Leader Article of the Day
Just so no one forgets, they remind us all that General John Borling is pro-choice, the Leader's Headline is General aborts Windy City announcement.
All-in-all Borling sounds interesting, but others have noted his poor speaking ability. In addition, he has a giant target on his head from social conservatives. I have to admire the article though, it paints a hysterical picture of a campaign trying to stage a photo-op.
archpundit 9/02/2003 11:30:26 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
As A Heads Up
For those not familiar with the set-up here, I essentially run two blogs. This one concentrates upon Illinois and National politics. The other--linked as Blog Saint Louis to your left, focuses on Saint Louis and Missouri politics. From time to time one suffers from an outbreak of news in the other area.
Currently, Saint Louis is boiling over with news over a school reform effort that is quite heated in some respects and I even do some original reporting on it. For that reason, while I'll be better than posting once a week over here, through the next couple of weeks the Saint Louis Public Schools situation is going to be fascinating and taking my attention over at Blog Saint Louis. Given there is a general summer lull, I won't be missing much.
For those that have an interest in School Reform, I think the Blog Saint Louis posts might be interesting. That being said, they do have a certain amount of buy in time associated as you learn the factions and history. Comments about such confusion will lead me to be more clear.
And I'll be bold here, I think if Saint Louis gets through the next 10-12 weeks successfully, it won't be Saint Louis Mayor Francis Slay visiting Daley for blessings on a school reform, Daley will be coming to Slay asking how to avoid burning through CEOs who can't tame the bureaucracy.
archpundit 9/02/2003 11:17:53 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Forgiveness and Bikes
As a sometimes bike commuter, the story of the bike messenger that stalked and then attacked a guy he had a run-in with hit home a bit. Most cyclists will regale you with hours of stories about jackasses in cars that seem to be disproportionately middle aged white guys in Dodges. They cut you off, they throw things, they get out of the car until they realize you are bigger, have pepper spray, and in a hell of a lot better shape (ed...excuse me--well normally I am). They then usually quickly get back in after a hard stare.
But cyclists behave badly quite often as well. There are of course the riding examples of Darwinian Natural Selection who ride against traffic despite clear guidelines in the laws of physics, but ultimately they are mainly dangers to themselves. Others can be quite horrific such as the bike messenger.
Zorn then uses it as a stepping stone to discuss forgiveness in a quite touching article.
archpundit 8/27/2003 4:12:20 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Another Day, Another Indictment
Patrick Fitzgerald indicts a friend of George Ryan and former State Senator on Seven Counts of Perjury in the Licenses for Bribes scandal
Swanson was paid $60,000 a year for three years under the Metropolitan Pier contract, yet did little to no work, U.S. Atty. Patrick Fitzgerald said at a news conference this afternoon in downtown Chicago to announce the indictment. The defendant allegedly lied to the grand jury about how he got the contract.
I've lost track on the number of indictments, but the Trib reports over 60 with 50 convictions. The real effort here is to try and get closer to Ryan and make a case against him. It appears that Fawell is staying quiet making such a case hard.
archpundit 8/27/2003 3:55:07 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
A Challenge to Dick Devine
Subordinates with this sort of behavior should be made to write full apologies
When asked Friday morning if they wished to make a statement to the court after dropping all charges against two men who have spent most of their lives in prison, one of the two prosecutors handling the case replied: "I don't think we're required to . . . "
Of course they weren't, Cook County Circuit Judge Dennis Porter stated. The question was would they like to.
How can someone be so callous as to ignore 27 years of wrongful incarceration?
archpundit 8/27/2003 3:32:12 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Problem With Twins
While this isn't much of a personal blog, let's say I have some experience with twins and well, the biggest problem is that they seem to have a habit of having one distract you while the other creates a mess.
John Kass, a father of twins, explains what happens when you don't get there in time to stop the second one.
Via, Eric Zorn, another father of twins.
I have a placed a call to DCFS, however. What kind of degenerate raises his kids to root for the White Sox?
As for the Royal We--unless you have a mouse in your pocket or are using it for specific literary effect, just don't.
archpundit 8/27/2003 3:11:27 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Why Take a Shot at Moseley Braun
when I don't have to, Eric Zorn did it for me:
Braun is not a sure loser because she's African American or because she's a woman. She's a sure loser because she was not a particularly good senator.
Pretty much. My favorite is still when she secured a tax benefit for the Tribune Company and the Trib Editorial Board blasted her for it.
archpundit 8/27/2003 3:06:23 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
That's a Year
Happy One Year Blogiversary to Me--well Yesterday. Thanks for all the hits and back to your regularly scheduled programming.
Seriously, I have over 44,000 hits to this site and the previous version on Blogger and I can't really believe it. While the numbers aren't up there with Kos or others, for a narrowly focused blog on Illinois and Missouri politics, I'm very humbled.
archpundit 8/27/2003 1:28:04 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Good Vibes...
The Team that won't be named here won tonight and I'll be in attendance in enemy territory tonight, Wednesday. Send good vibes
And Kos is stuck in Chicago Heh.
archpundit 8/27/2003 1:20:13 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
A Ringing Defense of Farm Subsidies
From Joyce Morrison.
On the one hand, she seems to have a clear point.
On the other, it is really dumb clear point. Not to mention Joyce is a welfare farmer. Subsidies produce gluts that artificially lower the prices and keeps inefficient producers growing. If you can't efficiently compete, don't. Either find a profitable crop or find another occupation. We don't guarantee people jobs of their choice in this country. We do our best to provide economic conditions that promote full employment and that is good and certainly our rural areas are need significant help there.
However, that isn't an excuse to cater to an inefficient industry that survives in its current form through protectionism and subsidies. If you do away with sugar quotas and subsidies corn becomes far less profitable and either Illinois producers have to switch to a more profitable crop or become more efficient. Farms are businesses and the conceit that they are a way of life is nothing besides an excuse by those businesspeople to continue to receive their subsidies at taxpayer expense and receive protection from efficient sugar producers at the expense of consumers and those companies that use sugar in production.
archpundit 8/27/2003 1:00:11 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Let's Play Two
Two updates at the Political State Report
Past Redistricting Attempts with the extended text from Rich Miller's Capitol Fax. An interesting 'insight' into Da Speaker.
DuPage County Republicans Canabilizing Each Other. Cleaned up version of the typical Illinois Circular Firing Squad Team article focusing on the battles in DuPage and what that means.
archpundit 8/27/2003 12:40:28 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Senate Impressions
Jeff Trigg hits up two posts on the Senate,
1) His Impressions of the Republican Senate Candidates
The only issue I take with his comments is that while Rauschenberger lacks some of the social graces one is accustomed to in politicians (essentially he doesn't suffer fools--but assumes everyone is a fool creating a problem talking to anyone on a one-on-one basis) he has a good shot due to some pretty good connections throughout the Illinois Senate and is close to Hastert. I wouldn't make him a favorite, but he has a shot to do well.
2) He identifies the like Libertarian Candidate for US Senate who sounds interesting at least.
archpundit 8/26/2003 11:20:07 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Judicial Slapdown
It isn't often that one laughs out loud at a Federal District Court judge, but leave it to the Fox News suit against Al Franken to produce such an outcome.
here are hard cases and there are easy cases," said Chin. "This is an easy case. The case is wholly without merit both factually and legally?It is ironic that a media company that should seek to protect the First Amendment is instead seeking to undermine it."
Dori Ann Hanswirth, Fox's lawyer, argued that buyers might be confused and think that the book was actually put out by Fox News, thus diluting and tarnishing the Fox brand. "Defendants' use of the Trademark?on the Preliminary Cover is likely to cause confusion among the public about whether Fox News has authorized or endorsed the Book, and about whether Franken is affiliated with FNC [Fox News Channel]," said the suit. "Franken is commonly perceived as having to trade off of the name recognition of others in order to make money."
Chin didn't buy it. "Is it really likely someone is going to be confused as to whether Fox News or Bill O'Reilly is endorsing this book?" asked the judge.
"It is likely consumers could believe that," replied Hanswirth. Later she added, "There's no real message that this is a book of humor or political satire. It's a deadly serious cover and it's using the Fox News trademark" to sell itself.
In response, the judge pointed out that one of O'Reilly's own books is titled "The O'Reilly Factor: The Good, the Bad, and the Completely Ridiculous in American Life." "Is that not a play on "The Good, The Bad and the Ugly?'" Chin asked, noting that the movie title is also trademarked.
"I don't know," replied Hanswirth.
"You don't know?" asked the judge.
That's about as bad of a day in court one can have as a lawyer. But it got worse,
Abrams said that if Fox pursued its case, he would challenge the validity of the "Fair and Balanced" trademark itself.
In delivering his scathing opinion, Chin suggested that Abrams would probably succeed in such a challenge. "The mark is a weak one," he said. "It's highly unlikely that the phrase 'Fair and Balanced' is a valid trademark."
When you go to court and learn you may lose a trademark and not just the case to protect the trademark you just hook up the IV full of gin right there.
My suggestion to Franken is not to just be reimbursed for legal fees, but file suit proclaiming it a frivolous lawsuit. If you win, you get to use it every time a blowhole on Faux News whines about frivolous lawsuits. It's like job creation for satirists.
archpundit 8/25/2003 11:23:06 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Will Not Stand--What Does He Have Leg Problem
Marie, in comments, notes,
"And I'm not going to stand for it."
There's that same misdirected righteous indignation we heard when he went after cheating cows. He's getting lost in his own rhetoric.
Well, he can stay sitting down as he is about to be overridden by the Lege.
This fits with a recent post by Eric Zorn on good and bad Rod that describes Blagojevich's split personality--scroll down--no permalinks. Zorn did a column during the campaign that highlighted the problem and it is linked from his post.
Rod wants to always play the tough guy when a deft hand would do better. He learned not to try and punk Madigan during the campaign, but apparently that lesson was specific to Madigan and not general to people with whom he needs to work. What he doesn't realize (or maybe care about) is that every time he takes on a political ally with tough language he hands their opponents a campaign issue. Even in those reasonable cases where he disagrees, a softer touch will get him much farther.
The Trib does a nice job slapping him down over the veto as well.
That's not simple. It's simplistic. It is a cartoon view of criminal justice that says if you're with me, you're with the good guys, and if you're against me, you're with the bad guys.
So which is it, governor? It's difficult to figure out a leader who changes his tune every time he changes his audience.
Seventeen police officers decide whether there should be an administrative penalty of losing one's badge under the provision he vetoed. Does anyone believe that seventeen officers are going to pull a badge on a weak case? I'm not sure they'll do it on a strong case.
Zorn addresses why there is a different standard for an administrative action in his post,
police officers to additional scrutiny, higher standards and separate disciplinary boards and proceedings in many areas for a simple reason: With additional power comes additional accountability. This is an extremely common notion that cuts across many regulated professions, such as medicine and the law. Good Rod knows this. Bad Rod thinks he can confuse the issue by portraying himself as an advocate for equal treatment for to police officers.
I'll go one step further. Employers can discipline employees for less than criminal acts. Police officers are public employees. In this case we are setting up an administrative review panel to ensure fairness to the individual officer. It does go one step further as well banning an officer from employment as a police officer in other Illinois jurisdictions.
archpundit 8/25/2003 11:07:46 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Speaker Rules Out Redistricting
Up at Political State Report
as reported in the Capitol Fax
This is a good thing. This midterm redistricting idea is bad for the country and even Illinois native George Will agrees.
Two things here. One, What would George Will think about Tim Johnson representing his old home? Johnson's personal character given Will's view of Clinton would be an interesting challenge for Will to address.
Second, does anyone know if Will's family had a trucking business in McLean County? Will himself, was a faculty brat in Champaign-Urbana, but I've heard that a relative had a trucking business around the beltway in Bloomington.
archpundit 8/25/2003 10:37:15 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Birkett Announced For Reelection
DuPage County State's Attorney Joe Birkett apparently announced a run for reelection last night at 8 PM.
Maybe the Governor can campaign for him.
archpundit 8/22/2003 7:48:04 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Blagojevich Stands Up for Perjury
G-Rod runs to the right of the GOP and stands by his veto of an administrative panel of police officers designed to be a watchdog over police officers perjuring themselves in capital crimes .
In a stunning statement demonstrating he doesn't grasp the issue,
"In my view that means less justice, not more justice," Blagojevich said after he signed into law an increase in the state's minimum wage. "In my view, that means our streets are less safe, not more safe. And I'm not going to stand for it. When the legislature has to convene, they have to ask themselves one simple question and that is whether or not we should have a system that treats criminals better than it treats police officers."
Such a statement equates any sort of oversight panel as 'treating criminals better than it treats police.' It is baffling to me what exactly is wrong with having a disciplinary panel for police officers given such panels already exist in many communities and every police department has the authority to discipline officers with a standard below that in criminal trials. In fact, this one is to be staffed by other police officers. If anything, that makes it far too hard to yank a badge when an officer lies under oath.
All of this should be clear to a man with a law degree--unless his real goal is to appear tough on crime like another cynic who returned from the campaign trail to oversee the execution of a retarded inmate.
archpundit 8/22/2003 7:42:04 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Illinois Circular Firing Squad Team Encourages California's
John Zahm provides moral support to the California Circular Firing Squad Team slobbering over McClintock and suggesting a conservative might deliver California to Bush in 2004.
In other science fiction news...Pat O'Malley is likely to become Illinois Governor in 2006 after running nothing but attack commercials on Rod Blagojevich's lack of support for home schoolers.
After donating to Democratic Party at the left, be sure to send Pat O'Malley some cash. It is far more effective going to him than any Democrat if your goal is to elect Democrats in Illinois.
In other news, the Leader gives us several articles detailing pretty much every political donation ever made by anyone with the last name McKenna.
Even more fascinating is the little soap opera playing out between Leader staffers and Republican lege staffers. I mean, Democrats couldn't dream this stuff up to keep the ICFST from being productive and on message.
And the daily gay bashing continues with an argument that gays and lesbians getting married is an attack on my wife and I's marriage. You see, gay rights is really about being Pro-Life. And it is all Griswold v. Connecticut's fault. Keep it up and try and make the argument to the general public that the state should have the ability to regulate an individual's use of contraceptives. Really, it will work great. I promise.
archpundit 8/21/2003 10:57:24 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Tid Bit Week Continues...
Busy, Busy, Busy,
But let's start with Zorn
First, Patrick Murphy, Cook County Public Guardian is sticking around for a while. He has long been a rather tireless advocate for kids and his relaxation is the public's gain.
Second, a report on the Ford Heights Four case by the US Attorney's Office determines there was no criminal conduct in their prosecution....Hmmmm...I remember talking with some folks who were connected with the pro bono appeal work and this seems relatively consistent with what they thought.
Dick Devine chimes in, "It is a case study of how law enforcement can go wrong even when the sole intention is to find the right person for a terrible crime"
The challenge for honest prosecutors and police is to admit they can be wrong. Devine seems to be coming around on these issues and worked for the video taping provision in death penalty reform.
Steve Wolk argues that the real problem in urban education is poverty. He is correct on that point and Wolk is progressive on charter schools compared to most education professors and realistic about their ultimate effects. However, the Chicago Public Schools receive a lot of money per student. While Vallas and now Duncan have introduced a series of reforms and cost cutting measures, too much money is still spent outside of instructional costs. If resources aren't making it to the schools, then there needs to be a focus on how to get them there.
While public school education in high poverty areas will never be as strong as in low poverty areas as measured by achievement tests, the ultimate crime is being poor stewards of resources and not using every available resource to instruction. Poor students have extra challenges and that is why support service overspending is so wrong.
And for the first time ever, I think I can comfortably say that St. Louis may actually be the model for this. While the experiment is only beginning, there are signs of hope that the Saint Louis Public Schools will dramatically shift resources from support to instruction.
Now the challenge is how to figure out how to recruit and retain high quality teachers. There simply are not enough quality teachers who can handle an urban classroom. If we reorganize schools under Chicago's plan or No Child Left Behind, we are only rearranging the deck chairs of the Titanic without increasing the supply of high quality teachers. To make matters worse, currently good teachers, such as the above mentioned State's Attorney's older son, have every incentive to go to magnet schools because if they stay in the most challenged schools, they risk
their teaching careers.
And he links here--the link whore in me thanks him.
archpundit 8/21/2003 10:41:31 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Separated At Birth
Perhaps Eric Zorn has been blogging longer than we think...
Eric Zorn
Calpundit
archpundit 8/20/2003 11:44:33 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Loony Leader Bits
Joyce Morrison argues that deregulation and environmentalists are to blame for the power outage. Besides the fact that we don't have an exact cause yet, it is hard to imagine how environmentalists caused a breakdown. Environmental regulations are designed to force the costs of pollution to be passed on to the users of electricity. Stunning concept to actually charge users for the costs of their behavior, stunning I tell you. But I'm sure I'm a dupe of the black helicopter patrols. Or given Joyce's version of the conspiracy, the people who dupe people into believing that there are people who believe in black helicopters.
As always, a giant no-prize to the individual who can locate a proper thesis statement in the column. I believe she outdoes herself in her first sentence, "When the electricity goes off, we are so dependent on electricity, we are helpless."
Beyond that, she keeps arguing dereg caused the blackout in her usual incoherent fashion. She seems to want to maintain the traditional power monopolies without grasping that the prime reason transmission is such a problem is because you have multiple agencies responsible for shaping the regulatory structure reducing incentives to invest. A coherent national plan would eliminate the problem.
The only decent column I've seen so far on the issue is from Robert Samuelson of the Washington Post.
After the blackout, the search for a scapegoat could easily go awry. Electricity won't ever be deregulated. The real issue isn't between "the market" and "regulation," because the danger of bad regulation is at least as great as that of bad market behavior. What we ought to seek is an intelligent balance of government regulation and market flexibility.
There's the rub, because Americans generally won't acknowledge conflicts and make choices. The cry is for low prices, ample supplies, absolute reliability, clean air, no disfiguring construction projects, local autonomy and national accountability. Great. Unfortunately, there are tensions among all these goals. If we want reliability (and we should), we'll have to pay for redundancy. All too often, regulatory politics are a veil for avoiding choices -- a formula that, while pleasant in the present, is disastrous for the future.
Typical. No one wants to admit scarcity or market failures.
In other news of the ridiculous at the Leader, some of the social conservaitves in Illinois have gotten their panties in a wad over the University of Illinois giving benefits to employees' same sex partners. The horrors of equal treatment. Next you know we'll be treating homosexuals like equals or something. In an interesting bin of silliness it seems conservatives are upset because there is a budget crunch. Yeah. But of all of the spending at U of I, this is what you question? Don't worry, everyone gets it. Strangely, more and more conservative towns are passing equal treatment ordinances. When you lost Normal, you lost the war, but keep it up. It keeps you from getting into any real mischief.
And finally, Lee Newcom comes out from underneath his rock in McLean County. I have no opinion on Kinzinger, but Newcom I do. He gave a talk to some high school students several years ago and suggested they could do anything they wanted in campaigns because they weren't accountable and should take advantage of that factor. Nothing like teaching students to be responsible citizens there Leester.
archpundit 8/20/2003 11:17:43 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Sneed Tidbits
Sneed offers a couple gems up.
Sneed hears Gov. Blagojevich's top politicos claim the Guv is seriously hoping to get the nod for veep in 2004.
If true, this blows a hole in the theory that G-Rod is politically astute. Illinois is a safe Democratic seat in the general election and thus not an attractive place to pick a VP Candidate from.
Dem senatorial candidate Blair Hull's new campaign mobile, a 34-foot-long Cruise Master that is touring statewide, is being called "Hull on Wheels." Get it? Forget it.
Maybe corny, but it raises name recognition.
archpundit 8/20/2003 10:49:09 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Adlai Stevenson Award
Look, I like Barack Obama a lot and I think it would be amazing for Illinois to send another African-American to the Senate. While I haven't made up my mind amongst a very strong field, Obama is an excellent candidate. Steve Neal slobbered over Obama on Monday though, saying, "What gives Obama hope is that he is the clear favorite of informed voters."
To which, one can only break out Stevenson's line,
"Mr. Stevenson, you have the support of every thinking voter in America." To which Adlai Stevenson replied, with his characteristic wit, "Well that's great, but what I need is a majority of voters in America."
So one has to wonder if being the favorite of informed voters is damning one with faint praise.
archpundit 8/20/2003 10:25:01 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Breaking Views
Eric Zorn joins the Blogosphere with Breaking Views. A name he is already apologizing for. Two minor quibbles, he has no permalinks and one has to register to get to the blog. I am registered so no biggy, but it doesn't fit the traditional blogosphere very well. Bill takes issues that he doesn't have comments and points out he doesn't understand why Instapundit gets away without having them. Reynolds actually did have them, but got rid of them because managing trolls was simply too much. I imagine the same is true of a big media journalist at a large site. Another example of the problem is The Temple Report by former Missouri Democratic Executive Director Roy Temple. He faced some challenging trolls and while he seems to have it under control, not having comments will have to do for many new entrants. .
Otherwise, I think his Pundit Patrol will be a great niche to build off of--I'm already using it daily after two days. Zorn makes the most sense of any of the columnists at the Trib because he has a very conversational voice and has expanded that to his own web site. The blog was the next likely choice.
Wanting to take credit for it (like any good blogger regardless of how silly the claim) , I looked around my archives and find that I never did suggest him, though I did suggest the Red Eye incorporating Nathan Bierma as a blogger. Nathan does a fair amount of free lance work for the Trib.
Interestingly, Zorn had said it would be a great honor to get the Tempo slot vacated when the Trib fired Bob Greene. I think he may have found a far better gig in the long run. Especially with his conversational voice he should be a prime example of how a columnist can connect readers to the print and electronic editions of a paper and give readers a personal stake in the publication.
Update: Butchered link and text fixed. Don't blog on bleary eyes.
archpundit 8/20/2003 10:01:58 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Quick Hits for the Rest of the Week...
Hit the Capitol Fax for an update on the ICC rate hearings--not surprisingly the Commerce Commission has cut the refund...
Jack Ryan makes women swoon...
And Blagojevich's numbers are falling according to some private polls. Besides that, Blago uses his hard hitting style to proclaim that cheaters won't be tolerated when it appears that a 4-H kids just messed up the paperwork. He also offers up an interesting history of 4-H cheating. I had several cousins who earned most of the spending money for a year by how well their steer did in show. So while the cheating wasn't commonplace, it wouldn't be surprising to see cheating, but embarrassing a kid statewide is pretty damn obnoxious.
Oh, and Rich Miller sports a new pic at the Daily Southtown. Take this with a grain of salt from someone who doesn't even use his name on his web site, but it is a huge improvement over his pic on his site.
archpundit 8/20/2003 9:21:04 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Coincidence: I Think Not
Fair and Balanced week here at ArchPundit was cut short by the effects of the blackout--coincidence, I think not. Roger Ailes shut down power to stop my service provider from broadcasting the truth I tell you.
Is the above any wackier than your average Fox hack?
I report, you decide...
Anyway, at least the beginning of the week will be slow. Real life intrudes, you know. Come back tonight for some links to some of the more interesting stuff.
archpundit 8/18/2003 10:45:53 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
MBC and William Jewel at Odds over Evilution
Nodding to the former workers at the Saint Louis Science Museum who may or may not be out there,
The National Center for Science Education (NCSE) reports the Missouri Baptist Convention has voted to withdraw support if William Jewel continued teaching evolution. As is per usual with such pronouncements, the MBC seems horribly confused about what it wants,
Although the MBC?s Burnett told the Sun-News that the MBC?s board was advocating that Genesis be taught as fact in theology classes but not in biology classes, the chair of the MBC?s executive board, the Reverend Jay Scribner, was quoted as saying that creationism was appropriate for science classes as well: ?Any Christian school needs to embrace and espouse the tenet of creationism.?
Appropriately, William Jewel just ignored them.
For those interested in such issues, the NCSE has set up a blog like news feed for biology education and attacks on evolution.
As a short aside, Sean Carroll hits the Discovery Institute over its collective heads for misrepresenting his work.
archpundit 8/13/2003 2:30:51 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Growing Up is Overrated
Marie at Disarranging Mine explains
archpundit 8/13/2003 2:07:15 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Fire McLarty and Bring In Podesta
Oops, I am having flashbacks to 1994. It would appear that someone needs to keep a calendar of important deadlines in the Governor's office. It's one thing to miss a deadline, it's another to anger some of your base over something so small as actually signing the bills.
In more important news, Blagojevich is keeping some priorities straight,
How many candidates are there? Nine, 10? I could probably name them if you forced me to but I could probably give you the Cubs' starting lineup a lot easier,'' he said.
That was in e-mail so I can't link to the source.
archpundit 8/13/2003 1:56:52 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Save Al Franken Day
For those that are curious as the the renaming of the site, I'm just getting ahead of Neil Pollack's Save Al Franken Day
Yes. This Friday, August 15, is Fair And Balanced day on the Internet. You are all hereby instructed to use the words Fair And Balanced in very creative ways on your various websites. My cosponsor in this effort, Atrios, informs me that many of you are already using "Fair And Balanced" in your taglines. Very good. Sometimes, I swear you don't even need instructions from me. But we can go further. Tell Fox News to take its Fair And Balanced slogan and shove it up its Fair And Balanced hole. Feel free to be more subtle than that, if you wish.
Update: Kenn tells me Cogicophony has joined the party
archpundit 8/13/2003 11:01:37 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
God Bless Social Conservatives
Ready, Aim, Fire in a circle. But no, today is not another hilarious installment of the Illinois Circular Firing Squad Team, but the California version with social conservatives starting their attack on Schwarzenegger.
Lou Sheldon (who was great on TV in an entertainment sense) is quoted as saying,
Sheldon has formed Californians for Moral Government to oppose Schwarzenegger's candidacy. "It is hard to imagine a worse governor than Gray Davis but Mr. Schwarzenegger would be it," Sheldon said. "California has enough problems without adding a Gov. Schwarzenegger to the mix.
Keep it up!
archpundit 8/13/2003 10:21:04 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Not Just Technical Fixes
Otis White at Governing addresses the air quality problems many cities are facing again and shockingly the problem is too many cars regardless of technical fixes.
The Return of Bad Air
This has been a terrible summer for air pollution, and it?s probably just the beginning. Take Los Angeles. In 1983, there were 152 days when ground-level ozone reached unhealthy levels. By 1998, that number had dwindled to 40. But by mid-summer this year, the number was at 36 ? with the bad-air season just beginning. Same problem in Denver, which was celebrating in 2002 for having conquered its air-pollution problems. There, air pollution monitors recorded the greatest spike in ozone since 1986. Ditto in Washington, D.C., which is suffering through its worst summer of pollution in years. What?s going on? A hot summer, to be sure, but a much more troubling trend: Air quality experts say that the technical fixes that worked so well in the 1980s and 1990s (catalytic converters, on-board car computers, reformulated gasoline, etc.) have run their course. ?I?m amazed at how we are getting to the end of technology to reduce emissions,? said an air-quality official in L.A. ?It takes more work now to get the same progress.? The technology masked the basic problem of big cities: too many people driving too many cars. In L.A., 70 percent of the pollution comes from cars and trucks, and the number of vehicles has grown steadily. In Washington, some officials blame pollution that blows into the area from the Midwest (it?s called ?transport?), but others say that?s only a small part of the problem. Says one Washington city council member, ?Ozone transport is an issue, but so are our emissions. If we weren?t putting up as much gas as we do, we wouldn?t be arguing about the transport.?
archpundit 8/13/2003 10:07:50 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Not That He Needs the Help Now
archpundit 8/13/2003 12:51:11 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
He's Got Skillzzz
Joan Walsh writes a mea culpa about Dean's political skills and suggests that he might be far more electable than people thought.
As someone who normally identifies as a DLC kinda guy, I've been more than appalled by Lieberman and the DLC attacks on Dean--a guy who makes the point that one needs a balanced budget to attack social justice. Hello Marty McFrom, but what the hell is it that you hate about the guy? That he argued there wasn't an imminent threat from Iraq. Well, it turns out From and I were wrong. There was a long term threat and Dean was willing to address it as such. I can admit I was wrong, but apparently the DLC can't bother to notice that the nuclear program wasn't as advanced as previously thought.
And frankly, I want my country back.
More interesting was a few minutes of Chris Mathews that I caught. The Good Dr. Luntz was on and doing his focus group bit and, uhhh..., well people just like Dean. It appears to be very similar to how people are attracted to Dubya except there seemed to be a level of trust in regards to how well Dean actually understood the issue.
Adding more is this from Josh Marshall who points out that the successful Democratic candidate has to appeal to the base of hatred while at the same time playing to the general audience in the general. Josh also points out the short sighted vision of the DLC and suggests some folks are trying to hit them over the head with a clue by four. Good for them.
Does this fit Dean? Given that in a recent interview he slipped and talked about how in the general election he'll have to move to more general issues---Yeah, he gets it. That doesn't mean he wins, but it does mean he gets the drill a lot better than Lieberman or Al From.
archpundit 8/13/2003 12:20:37 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Opposition to O'Hare
Jeff Trigg makes an excellent point about O'Hare expansion and the sleazy contracts that will likely be issued. As it stands now, there will be far fewer safeguards against the contracts being legitimate.
However, I'll blame this on Fitzgerald because instead of working a federal bill that would have demanded some accountability and put Durbin in a corner to support such measures, Peter has refused to offer any constructive way to expand O'Hare while keeping it clean. O'Hare expansion is vital and he thinks it shouldn't happen. So now it will happen and happen with few safeguards.
archpundit 8/13/2003 12:06:47 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Why Dick Won't And Shouldn't Be President
Steve Chapman has a great column on Dick's protectionism and the political consequences.
In presidential politics, the only thing worse than not getting the AFL-CIO's endorsement is getting it. The last two candidates to get its blessing early in the race were Walter Mondale and Al Gore, neither of whom spent the following four years being serenaded with "Hail to the Chief." Bill Clinton won even though the labor organization didn't get behind him until he already had the 1992 nomination sewn up.
Gephardt was one of the most responsive Members of Congress I've ever had--up there with Jim Leach which is high praise from me. And his staff say he is truly a great guy, which I don't doubt.
I'm sympathetic to some sort of environmental riders on some free trade agreements despite that I am unsure if they can be effective. Howard Dean has been discussing this issue in relation to how he disagrees with Robert Rubin over including such protections. I tend to side with Rubin thinking they won't do much good, but also recognize the problem.
That being said, free trade benefits the poor in the developing world more than anything else. Having been in Nicaragua just post embargo and their strong desire not for aid from the U.S., but for trade brought home the importance of this. Secondly, it benefits consumers. Third, free trade stops the U.S. from favoring some businesses over others. Despite cheaper labor in the U.S. many of Chicago's candy makers are moving to Canada because the cost of sugar is closer to world market rates. But the US chooses to support corn producers because of ADM: Supermarket to the Politicians.
Gephardt is a decent man and I have a great deal of respect for him, but I can't endorse in a primary someone so mediocre on such an issue.
archpundit 8/12/2003 11:55:30 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
It's Like I Wrote It
The Trib covers forest policy and points out all three major problems with fire and forest policy.
1) We are subsidizing timber--often to environmental harm
2) We are using proctectionist policies to exclude cheaper Canadian lumber and thus hurting consumers
3) We are protecting homes in high risk areas, despite that they are in high risk areas
Who says good environmental policy is opposed to good economic policy.
archpundit 8/12/2003 11:46:39 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Tari Renner in the 11th
Tari Renner is running to unseat Jerry Weller in the 11th CD.
Several people I know speak highly of Tari Renner, making him highly unlikely to do much besides be a gnat bothering Weller. Other than Mike Kelleher, there aren't many Democrats who have made strong runs in the area and with redistricting it only got harder. Interestingly, Kelleher is in the 11th now as he was redistricted into it by less than a block.
Weller pushed to have his District come south so his parents could vote for him. I still can't believe we have a vanity CD of this nature and few redistricting stories surprise me anymore.
archpundit 8/12/2003 11:19:43 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
How Did I Miss This
Rich Miller has two relatively recent stories up that I haven't commented upon, but the best is What's Good for the Goose...
WHAT'S GOOD FOR THE GOOSE... (excerpt) Mayors and city councils throughout the state have been complaining about the new fee on wastewater discharge. The fees, running as much as $10 per resident, have hit small farming communities particularly hard.
Most communities are paying under protest, most are furious that they didn't find out about the fees until they received a bill from the state, most are also disgusted that the fees will be immediately transferred into the state's General Revenue Fund and not spent on improving or inspecting the facilities, and most are also complaining that the Metropolitan Water and Sanitary District's fees are capped at a very low rate.
But the southern Illinois town of Hillsboro found a way to get even - and make a small profit in the bargain. . . .
But, after Hillsboro received a bill from the state for $21,000, angry town leaders decided to slap a wastewater fee on the [state] prison - for $24,000. from
Heh.
Also good is his coverage of the Illinois Commerce Commission--go see it at his site, but it essentially reports on a hidden news story in which the current ICC Members are pushing down refunds to consumers. How would you react if George Bush had appointed such a commission? I thought so.
archpundit 8/12/2003 11:13:24 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Calling Jeff Trigg
Errr...I'm all for easy ballot access, but this is ridiculous.
Just kidding in one sense, but it opens up an interesting question of how to have orderly elections that discourage candidates who aren't serious.
archpundit 8/12/2003 10:58:02 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Is There Such A Thing As A Satirical Lawsuit?
Because the suit filed by Fox News against Al Franken might qualify--after all being unsuccessful at being funny isn't a barrier to calling something satire.
Fox said in the suit that Franken flew into a rage near a table of Fox News personalities at a press correspondents' dinner in April and acted "either intoxicated or deranged."
It said Franken has become "increasingly unfunny."
"Franken is neither a journalist nor a television news personality. He is not a well-respected voice in American politics; rather, he appears to be shrill and unstable," the suit said.
Fox claims it registered the phrase "fair and balanced" in 1997 and that it "was created as a specific alternative to what its founders perceived as a liberal bias in the American media."
Franken worked as a comedy writer in the 1970s and has appeared frequently on "Saturday Night Live."
But I'm sure Al will thank them for boosting his sales...
archpundit 8/12/2003 10:45:33 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
It's the Gay Supremacy Hour
Brent Bozell is a moron.
I'm moving on...
archpundit 8/08/2003 1:06:02 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Ashcroft
We got our priorities straight, yes we do, let's attack pornography while fighting a war against terrorism. Hell, let's be like the extremists we are fighting and worry a lot about what people do in the private lives!
For a second, I thought maybe Ashcroft hadn't completely lost his mind (not that he ever had one) and was going after child porn-a worthy endeavor. Or maybe the organized crime connections to the porn industry.
Nope.
"Today's indictment marks an important step in the Department of Justice's strategy for attacking the proliferation of adult obscenity," Ashcroft said. The department will "continue to focus our efforts on targeted obscenity prosecutions that will deter others from producing and distributing obscene material."
I have an idea for a sex toy that I'm making widely available today to anyone who wants to make it--and you don't have to credit me or pay royalities---a big old dildo named Ashcroft.
The only other upside the great satire it brings. Royko wrote one of his finest columns on if pornography is so bad, why isn't anyone watching the members of the Meese Commission who watched so much of it to come to their conclusions? huh?
archpundit 8/08/2003 1:04:19 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Issa and The Horse's Head
Josh Marshall captures the essence behind Darryl Issa's withdrawal from the California Gubernatorial Campaign:
According to press reports, Issa had to fight back tears when making his announcement today. Now at first I figured Issa was tearing up because he'd spent such a big chunk of change on what's turning out to be someone else's party. But then I realized that wasn't it at all. He was just thinking how much more money he's going to have to spend to replace that sheet set and mattress and that fancy duvet because of the mess from that decapitated horse head he found in his bed this morning.
I mean, where do you think the call that got Issa outta this race came from? Yeah, me too ...
archpundit 8/08/2003 12:32:39 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Coming Attractions....
I'm setting up a page that will be a sort of Go To place for the 2004 elections in Illinois. It isn't quite ready to unveil, but it will be less blog like, more resource like. There are some great resources out there already and they'll be highlighted. If you know of any, drop me a comment.
Also, thanks to Marie and Jeff for dropping comments on the Senate Roll Call--I'm going to use those and probably on Monday. It will be here, but tied into the new page. I'll have another comment thread first.
There will be some new stuff today, but expect the site to be pretty slow until Monday.
archpundit 8/08/2003 12:00:31 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Missouri Post at the Political State Report
I've guest blogged for Missouri at the Political State Report covering the curse put on Mayor Slay and recent reform efforts within the Saint Louis Public Schools.
archpundit 8/06/2003 1:14:29 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Smite the Mayor
Yes, the SLPS Board chaos just notched up another level with a letter from Rochell Moore to Mayor Francis Slay that places a curse on the Mayor (registration required). I'm not kidding.
The open letter, sent to the press and signed by board member Rochell Moore, is filled with Biblical references. It says the Lord would smite Slay and anyone who helps him because of the position he has taken against the city's public schools. It says, in part, that "the angel of the Lord shall pursue Francis Slay until he perishes."
I believe the full document might be available tomorrow, I'll link to it once it is.
archpundit 8/05/2003 9:33:42 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
That's 40,000 Hits
Thanks everyone--I find it a bit bizarre that I have had that many in less than a year. It looks like the visit from was either
Daily Kos, to whom I owe a ton of traffic overall, or Crooked Timber which has also sent a lot of traffic my way. Thanks to both Markos and Henry and the gang.
Oh, and don't let me forget those anonymous tipsters out there! They make this site interesting.
archpundit 8/05/2003 4:51:50 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
One Shortfall that Wouldn't Have Happened Under G-Ryan
Pharmacists would get their bills paid--why? George Ryan was at one time a pharmacist.
* The average member responding to the survey is owed over $181,000 in back Medicaid reimbursements from the state. Some independent pharmacies are owed as much as $1.8 million. According to an accompanying article in the Belleville News-Democrat, about 20 percent are owed between $50,000 and $99,000, and another 28 percent are owed between $100,000 and $199,000.
* The average waiting period for state payment is now 110 days - about four months. A year ago, it was 56 days.
The pharmacists say they are being paid much more slowly than hospitals and nursing homes, which have more political pull in Springfield. They don't expect to be paid again until the end of August for expenses incurred through June.
The state borrowed $750 million to pay off its backlog of Medicaid bills, which triggered matching federal money. But that still left the state $500 million short of paying off its entire backlog, and, as it turned out, the vast majority of that $500 million was owed to pharmacists.
That hurts small businesses especially and such a practice is wrong.
archpundit 8/04/2003 4:23:12 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Not much analysis, but the Percentages are Fascinating
Crain's runs a column on the primary outlook for the 2004 Senate race.
What is most interesting is that 47% of the GOP vote will come from the lower 96 counties. The rural-urban split is certainly showing itself here and it is problematic for the GOP if it allows such places to dominate the race. They need to concentrate on attracting and retaining collar county and suburban voters to win.
archpundit 8/04/2003 2:39:38 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Big SLIDE!
Marie has a pic up of the Big Slide at the Illinois State Fair.
archpundit 8/04/2003 2:02:55 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Looks Like Rauschenberger is In
Bernard Schoenburg is reporting his campaign staff is taking shape,
DAVE KELM of Springfield has been tapped to be campaign manager for the U.S. Senate bid of state Sen. STEVE RAUSCHENBERGER, R-Elgin.
"He's the one right now with the most elected experience, and the most, I think, knowledge of the issues," Kelm, 34, said of Rauschenberger's entrance into the field of Republicans interested in the seat being vacated by U.S. Sen. PETER FITZGERALD, R-Ill.
Rauschenberger just won a four-year term to the Senate, where he's known as an appropriations whiz. He's also proven willing to speak plainly about his differences with folks, including Gov. ROD BLAGOJEVICH.
Kelm lost a nonpartisan race for Springfield Ward 6 alderman last spring to Ald. MARK MAHONEY and was laid off from his job at what was the Department of Nuclear Safety. He said Rauschenberger planned to file paperwork to establish an exploratory committee this week for a possible 2004 federal run.
I think Rauschenberger and Borling are the strongest general election candidates for the Republicans. As a note on Borling, he just announced he is pro-choice.
Given the nature of the Republican Party I'd say that is generally a liability in the primary, but with a fractured field it might play well to be the only pro-choice candidate.
archpundit 8/04/2003 1:59:23 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Dan Hynes has a nickname thanks to Marie
Dan Hynes -- Dano. As in "Book 'em Dano" for successfully staving off the Supremes.
From Marie at Disarranging Mine
Via Marie as well is a story on the Illinois State Fair which opens Friday. G-Rod is looking for a signature event such as Jim Thompson going down the slide and Edgar riding a horse.
Given he is a Chicago boy getting pummelled for living in Chicago perhaps Bull Milking would be a good signature event. Your ideas?
archpundit 8/04/2003 1:51:44 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
It's Not the Endzone of the Meadowlands, but...
We have a body in the Comiskey Parking Lot.
archpundit 8/04/2003 11:58:55 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
How can you criticize Reinsdorf?
I swear I didn't plant the quote in the title. Not to turn this into a sports blog, but I'm going to open this one up to the audience--so everyone who has a problem with Jerry Reinsdorf---vent away in comments. Try to not make it personal to other commenters.
archpundit 8/04/2003 11:36:09 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
More Clinton Parallels?
A sharp reader points to what is essentially a puff piece by Steve Neal on former Blagojevich aide Doug Scofield. Puff piece isn't pejorative to Scofield, but to the columns in which Neal writes uncritically of people he likes. While I don't have the intense hatred of Neal that many do, this is essentially a lazy column. He is best when he is analyzing and not doing profiles.
The reader adds,
Scofield left as deputy governor largely because of the disorganization in Blago's office. The failure to organize, hire adequate staff, and run a smooth operation meant that Scofield (one of the brightest of the bright) was left to work long hours and carry many burdens. This was not why he and his wife left DC (where he served Gutierrez immensley well). According to Scofield, not much has changed since he left.
As the Clinton Parallels continue, it appears that Team Blagojevich runs by the seat of its pants. This shouldn't be shocking, but it certainly is similar to Clinton's first couple years in office where the White House was chaotic and angered allies on a daily basis. All of the political stuff matters, but what new and especially younger executive officers tend to miss is that not only is the Governor a political operator, he is a manager of a huge bureaucracy. Without effective strategies to manage information and people things will quickly spin out of control.
archpundit 8/04/2003 11:32:59 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Seen at the Illinois Leader
Catholic Citizens condemn Durbin and Hartkin's "anti-Catholic bigotry"
That'd be Harkin to those trying to refer to Iowa's Senator. Or Hartke if referring to the recently passed away Senator from Indiana.
On the substance--LOL--arguing that criticizing one's judicial philosophy is Anti-Catholic is a bit problematic if Catholics, or any faith, want to claim they're political positions can be separated from the church they follow.
archpundit 8/04/2003 11:08:44 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
What Are These Strange Nicknames
I tend to use nicknames that I think capture certain pols...
G-Rod--shamelessly stolen from the Capitol Fax, captures the Hot Rod nature of the Governor
G-Ry George Ryan
J-Ry Jim Ryan
Why? During the campaign last year, Jim Ryan kept trying to get newspapers to differentiate between the two of them so he wouldn't be tarred with George's scandals. Ultimately, it was an excuse for what was one of the worst run campaigns in Illinois history--I would argue worse than Dawn Clark Netsch's given that Jim Ryan actually was in the race at soem time. Probably not worse than Chris Lauzen's Comptroller race, but Lauzen started out with less to work with--namely Chris Lauzen. Anyway, Jim Ryan was trying to get referred to as JRyan--I thought this was awfully diva like and thought something like J-Lo was more appropriate.
Da Speaker--big heavyweight Speaker of the Illinois House from the south side--very thin in reality and if not much of a kidder or talker--adds to the ironic nature of the nickname.
Four Tops--Traditional name of the four legislative leaders of the Illinois Lege--have an incredible amount of control over campaign cash minus some minor reforms in the Republican Caucuses this last time.
archpundit 8/04/2003 11:04:13 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
New Governor Same as The Old Governor
Well, not quite that bad--G-Ry had several more problems than the current Governor, but this Governor has effectively figured out how to use pork to reward political allies. Today, Rich Miller of the Capitol Fax released a list of pork projects that the Governor has quietly approved.
I believe most, if not all, of the projects are under the Member Initiative program where the Legislative Leaders (AKA The Four Tops) dole out favors to Lege Members from a fund. These funds were stopped initially by Blagojevich in a public gesture to show he was stopping pork, and The Way Business Is Done In Springfield (TM). He has quietly released nearly $200 million (keep that figure in mind for the next story).
But most importantly to understanding what is going on is that Blagojevich is rewarding those who helped him and punishing those who fought him. From Rich Miller's story,
The list of projects is dominated by House Republicans, a legislative caucus that worked closely with the Democratic governor all year. The House GOPs scored about 200 releases, worth tens of millions of dollars. The Senate Dems were a fairly close second on the totem pole, followed by the House Democrats.
Who did the worst then? The Senate Republicans with even new Four Top member Frank Watson not getting money for a hospital in his district according to Miller. Senator Kirk Dillard (R-Hinsdale) does real well though and he has been peeled off of party line votes by the Governor for a couple votes including the pension bond plan.
My speculation is that the House Dems are the so tightly run by Speaker Madigan that less pork is needed to grease the wheels in House Democratic Caucus and hence Blagojevich did not bother to release as many projects for them. Senate Democrats are not as tightly controlled by Senate President Emil Jones so they needed a little more grease.
On the other hand, Senators Watson and Steve Rauschenberger (R-Elgin) are the key Senate Republicans trying to obstruct nearly everything in the budget. Their strategy is closely allied with the Illinois Center-Right Coalition which has been influenced heavily by Grover Norquist and his Americans for Tax Reform group (Note: fellow Illinois Political State Report contributor Jeff Trigg is affiliated with the Center-Right Coalition). The strategy is to not give an inch to Democrats and instead turn the political debate in Illinois to one of strong opposition instead of going along to get along.
And if successful, the Center-Right Coalition will change the shape of Illinois politics. While it is an open question as to whether they will win electorally, such a change would dramatically alter the political landscape from one of bipartisan pork-barrel politics to one of ideological diviseness. Blagojevich's strategy is to reward those who want to go along, and punish those who won't and keep the bipartisan coalition together. The problem is that his Permanent Campaign tactics alienate many who he needs most.
What will make this especially interesting is if an insurgent group of House Republicans begin to make trouble for House Minority Leader Tom Cross. Cross is a moderate ally of US House Speaker Denny Hastert, but has been far too conciliatory with Democrats and the Governor in particular for movement conservatives.
Ultimately, in systems with decentralized parties, pork gets things done. One can complain about the degree of pork and in this case it is a problem, but without pork, a political system with separate branches for the executive and legislative functions and especially bicameral legislatures needs pork to create stable coalitions. In that sense it makes sense to rail against pork to score political points during elections and then turn around and play the game. Electoral sense or not, it is awfully hypocritical for a Governor who claims to be changing The Way Business Is Done In Springfield (TM).
UPDATE: Greg Blankenship disagrees with my characterization of the Illinois Center Right Coalition because,
What is interesting is that ArchPundit seems to believe that Grover Norquist and Americans for Tax Reform are somehow behind the Illinois Center Right Coalition -- and more incredibly is allied with State Sen. Steve Rauschenberger:
I'll stick by what I said for two reasons. Rauschenberger is allied with the Illinois Center Right Coalition--though through the vagaries of the sentence I'm not sure Watson is. Rauschenberger was the point man on the just say no to Blagojevich effort. Secondly, I said that ICR was heavily influenced by Norquist. Greg disagrees, but this seems strange since much of the idea is to make Illinois politics combative is identical to what Norquist has been preaching about how Republicans can turn the fight nasty and make gains from such fights instead of operating in bipartisan fashion. To say the ICR isn't heavily influenced by that strategy is a bit hard to believe. The specifics might be different, but the strategy is very similar.
archpundit 8/04/2003 10:57:01 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Senate Meet-Ups
Marie at Disarranging Mine lists the Meetups for Illinois US Senate Candidates
archpundit 8/03/2003 11:17:12 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
More on Rauner
A bit more about Bruce Rauner to fill in the gaps,
Bruce Rauner is, indeed, little-know in the general population, but he is very, very well know in the civic leadership, among the lakefront and north-shore voters, and carries a very big stick. He is a hugely wealthy venture capitalist, and his firm GTCR Golder Rauner is one of the power-house firms in a city with many power-house vc firms (GTCR just bout the American Stock Exchange). Rauner is fiercely smart (as is his equally respected wife, Diana Medley Rauner), and wouldn't be snookered by anyone, least of all Daley. Rauner is very philanthropic, a centerist independent (he is close to both Jack Ryan and Andy McKenna), and when or if he wants to run for office, he will have immense advantages: his base will be the downtown business leaders, the lakefront and the north shore. From there he can use his money to build name recognition and a political operation. He also has one more advantage: his late business partner and mentor, Stan Golder, was beloved in the jewish community. Stan and his widow, Joan, treated Rauner almost like one of their children. The Chicago/north shore jewish vote will not forget this.
Obviously, anyone thinking of running for office after Hull is going to figure out the Daley game. And even in that, Hull's contributions to Daley weren't all in vain--Hull was able to play off what seemed like early Daley backing and use that to open even more doors. He has just had to change the strategy a bit.
archpundit 8/03/2003 11:12:59 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Driving Off A Cliff and Thinking it is a Bump In the Road
Novak's column today is a peach
Element 1:
House Majority Leader Tom DeLay tried but failed to get a House Democrat to accompany him on his mission to Israel. Democrats did not risk the wrath of their party's leadership.
The only reason no Congressional Democrat would go is because of the Dem Leadership--not that
A) Tom DeLay is a nut job
B) Tom DeLay is trying to throw out conservative Democrats so helping him would be assisted suicide
C) Tom DeLay is particularly a nut job when it comes to Israeli policy
But, no it is because of House Leadership
Element 2:
Apparently, Rumsfeld's assistant Steven Herbits is gay. Why does this matter? I think we know, but it isn't mentioned as relevant to anything else in the bit. Nice.
Element 3:
Dick Kempthorne is too liberal for conservatives for Bush to name him EPA Chief. He apparently raised taxes as Governor. Why this is relevant is anyone's guess, but what the hell.
archpundit 8/03/2003 11:02:20 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The John Burge Protection Act
Blagojevich didn't have a mentally retarded killer to showcase for his support of the death penalty, as Bill Clinton did, but that didn't let him stop himself from pandering to the police by issuing an amendatory veto of a provision allowing for a special mechanism to remove badges of officers found to have perjured themselves in a death penalty case.
He vetoed a measure that would bring credible and substantiated cases of police perjury before a Law Enforcement Standards & Training Board. That board would be made up of 17 police officers. If two-thirds of them found an officer had committed perjury, that officer would lose his badge.
If a cop lies so egregiously on the stand that it leads to the wrongful conviction of a defendant and motivates a panel of 17 fellow police officers to opt to kick him off the force, what's wrong with that?
This provision does not, as Blagojevich attempted to argue Tuesday, "(treat) the police worse than everyone else." It does not carry the same weight as a criminal felony perjury conviction. If you convict a cop of perjury, he can go to jail. If this board finds that cop guilty, he loses his badge. He's free to go sell insurance, open a lemonade stand or spend his days on a fishing boat in Florida.
It will not, as Blagojevich also asserted, cause the floodgates to open for every felon to file a perjury grievance against police. This would apply only to homicide cases in which an officer is a relevant, significant witness. That alone significantly narrows the qualifying field of cases.
So in 2008 will he turn to his aids and say, kill the retarded inmate?
It is important to note that John Burge is currently retired in Florida enjoying retirement. Some of his victims spent time in prison for crimes they didn't commit, but were sentenced for and tortured to promote a confession.
archpundit 8/01/2003 1:48:44 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Is Bruce Rauner the Next Arnold Maremont
For the Arnold Maremont story, see a post on Political State Report.
From today's Chicago Tribune
The mayor's largest individual donor was a little-known Chicago businessman who is said to have political aspirations. Bruce Rauner, who runs a private equity firm called GTCR Golden Rauner LLC, donated $50,000 to the mayor.
Yo, Bruce, you might want to check with Blair Hull about the effectiveness of such a strategy.
archpundit 8/01/2003 1:18:19 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Psychology of Prosecutors
Via Peoria Pundit
Comes a Michael Miner column on the inability of prosecutors to recognize police and prosecutor misconduct. It is a good column not because it rails against both groups, but because it explores the more complex reality of dealing with good and honorable people in most cases and then not believing that some are capable of the most horrible of crimes--torture.
archpundit 8/01/2003 1:07:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Sox Fans are Just so Sad
Kass is suffering from such envy at the class of the City of Chicago that he is trying to come up with a curse to explain the pitiful and lousy White Sox performance. Just like a White Sox fan to feel envy at a curse!
The only curse the White Sox have is Jerry Reinsdorf.
archpundit 8/01/2003 12:37:49 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Governor Prevert?
And the thing is, with all the people in the race, he might just win....
archpundit 8/01/2003 12:29:51 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Now that is Cool
While this is likely to be a bad G-Rod day or month here at ArchPundit, give him props for this,
Watch for Gov. "Hot Rod" Blagojevich to appear in a cameo role in "Barbershop II," a sequel to the hit movie "Barbershop," which is being filmed in Chicago.
archpundit 8/01/2003 12:21:11 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
We Know Rutherford is Running for SOS, but what about Bromke?
Campaign finance disclosure hits for state Lege members and unsurprisingly, Dan Rutherford is second in Central Illinois with ~$111,000 in the bank following $186,000 in the bank for Bromke. Rutherford is trying to raise his profile and run for statewide office in 2006 putting together seemingly non-partisan get togethers in Chicago that are about 'networking'. Or establishing a Dan Rutherford network. Nothing wrong with that, he just is. He's also pulling in cash from labor which he has an interesting relationship with.
But what about Bromke? Just getting a big account for big accounts sake or is he running in 2006 for something bigger?
archpundit 8/01/2003 12:14:42 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Rich Miller says the C-Word
For those not paying attention, Blagojevich just handed the Supreme Court their asses on a platter. The Supreme Court essentially escalated a fight over judicial raises into state Constitutional Showdown where they had the authority to rule on the ultimate outcome, but they would have lost in the court of public opinion. Playing directly into G-Rod's hands they portrayed themselves as insider hacks who just wanted to get their raises despite the dire condition of state budget.
Miller does a good job of covering the issue and brings up C-Word--Clinton in that description. Miller is absolutely right about Blagojevich burning a lot of bridges, but just like Clinton, he knows whose buttons to push, and whose buttons aren't to be pushed.
Last year during the campaign, Blagojevich tried to push Madigan's button and instead of an outright rebuke that defended Speaker Madigan's position on livestock show and put Blagojevich in the catbird seat, Madigan mentioned G-Rod might have some indiscretions. What indiscretions were those? Who knows, the Speaker just sort of shrugged leaving it to our and, and more importantly, G-Rod's imagination. The Speaker says very little, but carries a big stick.
No one really knows what the hell Madigan meant, but G-Rod hasn't publicly taken on the Speaker, or his daughter, since. Unfortunately for the unfortunate Gary MacDougal, the former Illinois Republican Party head tried to parlay the comment into a scandal. The thing he forgot was that no one knows what the indiscretions were or if there were any. So the head of the Illinois Republican Party was making the case that Blagojevich had a scandal based on the hated Democratic Speaker of the House's integrity, of which MacDougal thought there wasn't any integrity. Naturally, the press left the press conference wondering when they had entered Bizarro World and tried to write the story straight, but ended up writing stories that could have been in the Onion. I can't make that kind of satire up.
The key to this is the Governor hasn't taken on who matters in the general election or the primaries. He hasn't taken on Mayor Daley, he hasn't taken on Madigan, he hasn't taken on interest groups except for a bungling of the Hispanic Caucus with whom he is reaching out to to heal the problem. He hasn't directly taken on Dan Hynes who is dancing a strange dance with him over the Senate race and who and when the Governor will endorse a candidate.
This sort of game may work, but it doesn't exactly bring confidence to government--indeed the entire strategy is based upon tearing down government credibility to increase G-Rod's and that is unhealthy for the state. In many ways he is playing right into the Illinois Center-Right Coalition strategy of attacking the public sector. There is much wrong with Illinois politics and government, but it is unclear if the Governor is going to fix that at all, or just establish himself as a credible candidate in 2008 or 2012 to be President of the United States.
archpundit 8/01/2003 12:07:10 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Busy, Back on Thursday Full Force
But let's just say I'm mighty pissed at the John Burge Protection Act that is effected by Blagojevich's amendatory veto.
archpundit 7/30/2003 5:14:54 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Pop Quiz: What is Missing on the News Channels?
Drudge lays out the most recent ratings for the news channels,
MSNBC ON DECK AS CNN EXPERIENCES SUMMER COLLAPSE IN RATINGS
FOR FRIDAY NITE [7/25/03]
FNC O'REILLY 1.6 [RATING]
FNC HANNITY/COLMES 1.4
FNC GRETA 1.3
FNC SHEP SMITH 1.2
FNC BRIT HUME 1.1
CNN LARRY KING LIVE 0.8
CNN AARON BROWN 0.5
CNN PAULA ZAHN 0.4
MSNBC HARDBALL 0.4
MSNBC OLBERMANN 0.3
MSNBC ABRAMS 0.3
BUCHANAN/PRESS 0.2
SCARBOROUGH 0.2
What is missing? Well news. Only the Countdown does any significant reporting and perhaps Hume from time to time. How about some reporting? Actually I can't say that, I can't sit through Zahn, Brown or King so maybe Brown or Zahn sneak in some actual news stories. But who cares, I watch news for news. Olbermann is the only inventive style up there with the rest being designed for people to yell at each other.
archpundit 7/28/2003 4:34:22 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Greg Greene On Congressional Stupidity
Silly Cyclists: Bikes are for Kids.
I'm incapable of addressing the issue without ranting so I'll let Greg do it.
archpundit 7/28/2003 3:25:19 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Kathuria in the Economist
Via the Illinois Leader
The Economist profiles Chirinjeev Kathuria.
What is striking about the article is that it is the best profile to date.
archpundit 7/28/2003 2:58:54 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lance Going For 6 and Tyler was Amazing
Bonnie DeSimone has done another bang up job covering the Tour de France.
Lance, of course, won, and Tyler came in 4th with a fantastic time trial. While Tyler is amazing, he is also 32 making it hard to believe that beyond Lance's career he'll be around. However, if he can stay healthy next year he may well be the strongest challenger along with Ullrich who is only 29.
I wouldn't bet against Lance next year.
archpundit 7/28/2003 1:59:28 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The F Word
Over at the Smoking Gun.
You have to read it.
archpundit 7/28/2003 1:43:57 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Good Article on School Reform and the Middle Class
I am working on a longer post that will incorporate the mediocre state results and this new article, but take a look at a very good article in the Sun-Times today.
archpundit 7/28/2003 1:35:15 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Illinois Senate Roll Call Comments
All right, given the field is starting to settle this might work as a slightly better feature. I'll put it on a regular schedule after this week once I determine the best time to do it.
That being said, what are your thoughts on the contenders? Who is up, who is down? Why? Remember both parties' scrums are ready for analysis.
archpundit 7/28/2003 1:33:10 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Worst Possible Lawsuit to Face
Is when the judiciary sues another branch for benefits. Why? Because they will eventually win. Duh.
archpundit 7/28/2003 1:16:27 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Officially Too Weird
I'm out of commentary on the Miriam Miquelon story now that we know there was a gun bust was done at her registered Metro East residence.
archpundit 7/28/2003 12:18:54 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Correction to Prison Video Taping Story
More posts later, but I wanted to issue a quick correction. Yesterday I gave kudos to the Pantagraph for breaking the story that Blagojevich was monitoring newscasts from around the state using prison personnel. It was a good story, but it appears that the Pantagraph didn't do the initial legwork--Rich Miller of the Capitol Fax did. Last night I read a similar story in the State Journal-Register, and that story credited Miller which confused me. Not having time last night to track down the story, I left it for today.
Before I could check, I received confirmation today that the story had been, well, stolen without credit. Bad Pantagraph and Good Rich Miller. The Miller story was much better for what it is worth. It is only available to subscribers though.
Let me plug the redesign again. Not only does he post sample stories on many days, but it provides one of the better central locations to find Illinois political news and information.
archpundit 7/25/2003 2:49:33 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
One Bad Thing To Say
Greg Blankship also promotes a recent policy paper on ILLINOIS' CORN SYRUP CRISIS.
Hypocrisy knows no bounds,
In 1997, Mexico imposed illegal antidumping duties on U.S. exports of HFCS. This has been part of a concerted effort on the part of Mexico to unilaterally renegotiate NAFTA. The HFCS dispute is just the most egregious example of illegal antidumping duties but, by far, not the only example. Rice producers, pork producers, poultry and beef producers have all faced similar measures. And, if Mexico is rewarded for its behavior on HFCS, we can be assured that these other producers will also eventually be blocked from the Mexican market.
Kinda like having big sugar quotas to keep out cheap sugar that allows the high fructose corn syrup to actually be competitive economically? Uh-huh. The only reason HFCS is big business is because we limit cheap sugar imports. If you want free markets be consistent and be for free markets for all instead of picking and choosing on your outrage.
archpundit 7/24/2003 1:18:16 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
One Good Thing To Say
In an interesting use of media, The Illinois Policy Institute has a blog, A New Can of Worms, written by the Director Greg Blackenship.
What do I like about the Illinois Policy Institute? Not much and the next post will show one reason. Essentially it is another 'think tank' that is really cover for a political party.
That being said, Blackenship makes an astute observation about Rich Miller's comparisons of Blagojevich to Dan Walker,
This says at all. The carping from the Capitol is deplorable. Thinned skinned state legislators and a culture that is used to operating like Leonid Breschnev's Politboru are finally being challenged in Illinois. (Come to think of it the apathy toward not only our legislators and constitutional officers but the entire state government is also reminiscent of the Breschnev era. So, yeah, the Breschnev era might be good analogy.) While the Governor is being denounced for going back on his word -- by people who have made a living at it -- he is out using the trappings of the Governorship to gather public support for his positions. This is a no win situation for the constitutional officers and angry legislators. They need to get over it and adjust to the new realities.
Rich Miller has begun comparing the Governor and his strategy to Gov. Walker -- the last Democrat to hold the office: "After about a year in office, nobody trusted Dan Walker, a self-centered, serial prevaricator with dreams of national office who thought he was smarter than everyone else and who relentlessly promoted himself as an independent by deliberately picking demagogic fights with other politicians. Sound vaguely familiar?"
Rod Blagojevich isn't Dan Walker. Walker tried to replace Mayor Richard Daley the First as head of the IL Democratic Party. Blagojevich isn't picking fights with the Party (Speaker Madigan is its leader) and, unlike Walker, Blagojevich has a few years of national politics under his belt. Watching Bill Clinton and George W. Bush up close and working with Ald. Dick Mell (his father in law) and Clinton strategist and Fmr. DNC Chairman David Wilhelm gives Blagojevich a base of support and political smarts that Walker never had. No, Blagojevich is not Dan Walker.
Like a President, Governor Blagojevich is seeking a public debate on matters of state. This is what I want, debates on prescription drugs, taxes, Medicaid Reform, and fiscal reforms. Just like we are winning at the national level, we'll win at the state level. If we are confident in our ideas, then conservatives should be egging Blagojevich on.
Everytime the "insiders" demand the Governor come back to Springfield and negotiate -- which means essentially to work behind closed doors -- they look bad, not the Governor. He'll win that one everytime. It is 2003, not 1903 and it is about time the Illinois political culture catches up with the times. Thanks to Internet, talk radio, and cable tv we govern publicly today, not behind closed doors. Our leaders either need to grow up and learn how to operate in the twenty-first century or move on.
In the end, Blagojevich may not be able to beat the establishment, the first guy to challenge rarely does. Think Glasnost. But he may weaken the establishment to the point where the next one who comes along does finally finish them off. If Blagojevich can at least do that, then he will have done a service to Illinois conservatives.
The Permanent Campaign is stupid, and hopefully counterproductive. The budget is slightly better, but still structurally a disaster. While I completely disagree with Blackenship on most issues and I think a public debate hurts his positions, his analysis of Blagojevich's political skills is quite good. Other than angering the Hispanic Caucus, his moves so far haven't really cost him much and probably helped him for reelection with Topinka's ranting.
archpundit 7/24/2003 12:31:57 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Now, That's a Tactical Error
Blagojevich is having state employees in the Department of Corrections monitor television coverage of the Governor. This is a great story and kudos to a paper that was nothing more than an AP reprint for years at turning into a serviceable local paper.
The governor's office contends that having state workers monitor TV news helps Blagojevich determine hot issues in different regions of Illinois.
An internal Illinois Department of Corrections memo notes that a $64,000-per-year state prison psychologist at East Moline Correctional Center was appointed to review tapes of daily news broadcasts from local TV stations.
The memo specifically notes that the psychologist should look "for any newscasts concerning Governor Blagojevich."
"When there is information on a tape, complete the attached form and route the tape to the Warden's Office by 9:15 a.m.," the May 14 memo said.
The memo was issued as Blagojevich argued with state lawmakers that the state's prison system is bloated with bureaucracy.
I hope you turned off your irony meters before reading that. If not, well you needed a new one anyway.
The really stupid thing is this is what you have the party do. The party has money to do such things or you may be able to do it out of Lege offices. Given the Speaker has an extensive 'case work' staff, that staff could take the time to do the same job. Not exactly the best way to use state resources still, but certainly a lot smarter way of going about it. Or just have private party funds pay for it--it isn't that expensive.
It really is a twofer--bad public policy meets bad politics.
Updated above--if searching search term Capitol Fax and Pantagraph.
archpundit 7/24/2003 12:10:42 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
California Recall
Kos sums up my feelings about the California recall quite well.
archpundit 7/23/2003 1:49:16 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Now That is a Random Act of Kindness
Go Read Kass Today--I think this fits with Jeff Trigg's original idea for his site.
archpundit 7/23/2003 1:21:19 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
An Unfortunate Moniker
The Milk Dud is back. What would the world be if Neal didn't have someone to kick around. So far, Hynes, Obama and McKenna seem to pass the test, but he hates the rest.
archpundit 7/23/2003 12:53:53 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Tour de Amazing
The Bad News, Freddie Rodriguez abandons. (that was actually the day before the rest day)
The good news, Lance stays even today and there is only one real chance for Ullrich to catch up on time--the time trial. The other stages are flat and shouldn't be an issue. Given Lance's legs appear strong again, I wouldn't count on Ullrich putting more than a couple seconds on Lance, and I'm guessing Lance may put a few on Ullrich.
The amazing news--Tyler takes the stage by almost 2 minutes. Lance gave him a big bear hug when he came in.
archpundit 7/23/2003 11:49:31 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Capitol Fax Goes Sort of Bloggy
Instead of the traditional single post, Rich Miller is creating a sort of blog like front page with excerpts of the Capitol Fax. Stil no permalinks though...
archpundit 7/23/2003 11:22:36 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Get Over the Clenis
Via The Political Wire,
There is a going to be a Counter Clinton Library.
Someone needs to get a life...seriously.
Of course, strike one up for the post-modernization of the social sciences with this quote,
``We already hear he's going to bring a bunch of egghead economists to his library to say how great the economy was when he was president,'' LeBoutillier says. ``And we'll find our own who can say it had nothing to do with him
archpundit 7/22/2003 2:06:40 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Now, I Understand the Center-Right Coalition
Despite Jeff Trigg's professed indifference to the Illinois Center-Right Coalition, it is really his dastardly plot to blow up the Republican Party and make the Libertarians the 2nd party in Illinois.
Heh. Heh. So no one is confused, I'm poking good natured fun at Jeff and I certainly don't represent his views.
But the second article by John Zahm is exactly why I call the Illinois Republican Party the Illinois Circular Firing Squad Team.
The charge of the CRAV Committee will be to make recommendations to the Steering Committee about which primary and general elections should be contested. The committee can interview and research prospective candidates to identify top prospects. Surely, in some cases, the candidate will arise without need of recruitment, in other cases, an effort to find a candidate may be necessary to fill an open seat or oust an incumbent
If you split your own coalition by going after those members who are socially moderate you find yourself in a hole when it comes time to cobble together a majority coalition.
archpundit 7/22/2003 1:48:38 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Joyce Morrison: On the Dole
After the Joyce Morrison column last week made the rounds of cyclist mailing lists and Bulletin Boards, the Illinois Leader was apparently inundated with letters.
The best work was done by Bob Foster who figured out that Ms. Morrison's husband is on the dole to the tune of $129,000 over the 5 years.
Now that is damn funny.
Her most recent string of sentences is available and not as funny as usual.
archpundit 7/22/2003 1:29:41 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Free and Equal Elections
Jeff Trigg is doing some great work on ballot access and is blogging about it to boot.
I wish the effort the best, even if I'm less optimistic than Jeff about the chances for success. The challenge isn't to get enough lege members to sign on, the challenge is to get it out of committee.
archpundit 7/22/2003 1:03:39 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lisa Madigan's Spine
Often I have been critical of those who use family connections to leap frog into higher positions than their experience would suggest warranted. The most obvious example in the last election was Lisa Madigan, who ran against such a nitwit that she was far more attractive of a candidate. Can anyone explain what Birkett's position was on concealed carry to me? I mean I know what he said, but c'mon.
Anyway, Lisa Madigan has been a pleasant surprise in office especially with her handling of the Emerald Casino License. She has gone after the insiders trying to get their money back from a shady deal at the expense of Illinois taxpayers. The Trib appropriately lauds her.
archpundit 7/22/2003 12:09:01 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Rush Endorses Hull
Bobby Rush endorses Blair Hull. It would appear that Blair Hull has exploited the Steve Neal column to great benefit and Rush's denials concerning that article.
Hull is running a smart campaign. One of the signs of a good campaign is picking up on others mistakes and in this case, pushing Rush out there too far made him vulnerable with only one candidate to support and not look like a tool of the Machine.
For the alternative view, and for a column that was described as weird to me--an analysis that captures it well--is Steve Neal's column this morning. Really, this isn't too surprising and should have been obvious to anyone paying attention. After Neal's last column what could Rush do?
Back Obama? No, first it would make him look weak and two he hates Obama's guts.
Back Washington? No, he'd look like a tool of the Machine.
Back Chico? Possibly, but Chico appears dead in the water?
Back Hynes? hahahahahaha...talk about looking like a tool of the Machine
Back Hull? Safe and it makes him look like he is his own man.
Steve Neal helped create this situation, why is he surprised at the outcome.
And just let me say, I butchered Rush's first name previously. I don't know how, but the next contest should be to see how I can spell Blair Hull wrong.
archpundit 7/22/2003 11:01:34 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Alternative Take on Hynes' Money
I wouldn't agree about Hynes. Hynes has predicated his campaign on the fact that he is the "inevitable" candidate to win. The strategy being that he would push, scare, or otherwise force from the race all but the weakest candidates. None of his tactics, however, have worked. All are still in. Hull wasn't scared out by a downstate "big spender' (and, yes, I absolutley believe that was engineered by Hynes) or the endorsement machine; Obama wasn't scared out by Washington or the endorsement machine, either; and Chico is still in there. On the money front, Hynes tried early to demonstrate that he was going to be a fundraising juggernaut by lining up a fairly impressive finance committee . But what is the result: he is, at best keeping pace with the non-Hull pack. He and Obama have almost the same money on hand, with Obama having equalled Hynes this quarter and Chico was only a few bucks off their totals. Even if Hull wasn't in the race, Illinois Senate races have been costing upwards of $10 million, with the last costing $14 million . But the trend nationally is that Senate races are very expensive, so if Hynes's campaign is so well-organized, why didn't they factor this in, and why going into the fall does he have only $1.4 million on hand? At this rate, he isn't breaking out of the pack with any particular advantages that can't be off-set by the others. If Hynes is going to win this, he had better start taking Hull and Obama more seriously, and organize and run a real campaign.
I think the above is good analysis, but I'm willing to wait for the next quarter to see how Hynes does. One key issue is will he be able to exploit the higher limits set due to Hull self-funding. I do think it is correct to criticize Hynes for not taking this race very seriously to date. While it might be an effective tactic in many cases to ignore the opposition when one is a frontrunner, in this case the opposition is both tough and serious.
Hynes is going to have to campaign and campaign hard. And he is going to have to earn the Democratic nomination by running on more than milquetoast arguments about the President. Whoever the Republican nominee is, he will tie himself to George Bush (unwisely) and run on that record. Even with the natural advantage to Democrats in Illinois, running as Bush-Lite as Lieberman is, isn't going to cut it. The President is at odds with several fundamental values that Democrats stand for and to date Hynes has avoided that distinction.
In one sense, I'm not too worried because he has very capable opponents who are going to force him to address issues, but on another, playing footsy with every ne'er do well in Southern Illinois like Jerry Costello and avoiding strong stands tells me he sees this race more about power and less about fighting the good fight.
And for some of the Hynes' supporters out there, remember you can e-mail me with rebuttals.
archpundit 7/22/2003 10:48:02 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Dallas Morning News Blog
National Review Online writer Rod Dreher recently departed the NRO to go to the Dallas Morning News' editorial page and apparently has gotten a blog started.
A couple thoughts--first, this will never come to the Post-Dispatch which is utterly clueless about the Internet--and just about anything else, this is a long way off. Thanks to Old Tasty for the heads up.
Two, why the hell haven't the competing young editions of the Trib and Sun-Times adopted blogs. Hell, the Trib has a writer with a good blog in Nathan Bierma. Eric Zorn is just this close to having a blog with his on-line site.
archpundit 7/22/2003 10:21:42 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Chip Taylor is Back
Chip Taylor is back and blogging from South Carolina. I'll be adding him to the state coverage as he will be concentrating upon states in general, but not so much local coverage.
archpundit 7/21/2003 11:00:33 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lance picked up about a minute
After crashing--perhaps he should crash more often
archpundit 7/21/2003 10:15:03 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Busy....back after the stage
Lance is dropping Ulrich right now-
archpundit 7/21/2003 9:56:21 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
I'll be Listening to the Radio While Watching the Bears on ESPN
There are other, better idiots out there who do not offend my sensibilities, and who actually know something about football.
Amen.
archpundit 7/17/2003 2:03:33 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Other Part of the Miquelon Story
is in Kass's column today.
Amiel Cueto, the imprisoned, yet soon-to-be-released southern Illinois political boss, recently received a coming-out present.
His enemy, Miriam Miquelon, the woman who put him behind bars for using his law license to protect the gambling rackets, is now out of her job as U.S. attorney of the Southern District.
So, as Cueto prepares for one of those welcome-home red meat political dinners, Miquelon leaves the prosecutor's office under a cloud.
Miquelon won't discuss the alleged relationship which is fine, but such a relationship is inappropriate. It isn't illegal however, and it may or may not be prohibited by DOJ rules. Kass misses this point, but makes an equally strong point that most of the complaints are meant to destroy her credibility so they are suspect.
She does strongly deny that she investigated political opponents and without evidence that she did, I'm highly suspect.
archpundit 7/16/2003 1:06:47 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Costello Endorsement Hits
And it is Dan Hynes. I don't have a particular problem with Dan Hynes and I like him in general, but I'm more than a little frustrated at the Party Leaders playing footsy with a dirty politician like Costello. Obviously it is a losing strategy to not get him in your corner as Vallas learned, but when do you call a crook a crook?
He sells out African-Americans to the St. Clair machine, he his good buddies with Amiel Cueto, and he was named an unindicted co-conspirator in the Cueto case. What does it take? An actual conviction like Cosentino?
archpundit 7/16/2003 12:55:02 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Senate FEC Reports Are In
And man is Hull spending a lot.
But we knew that.
Interesting is that the reports of Dan Hynes having a hard time rasing funds were greatly exaggerated.
Of the non-millionaire Democrats in the race, state Comptroller Dan Hynes raised the most over the past three months: $947,662, bringing his campaign total to $1,844,727. Hynes had spent $284,608 since last year and had $1,560,226 left in the bank.
Now, perhaps that picked up towards the end of the quarter, but he is doing okay.
Obama is doing well,
State Sen. Barack Obama raised $878,359 during the period, bringing his total to $1,412,224. Obama had spent $325,347 and had more than $1 million in the bank.
As is Chico,
Chico raised $477,751 over the past three months, bringing his total to $2,258,317. Chico had spent $914,480 since entering the race and had more than $1.3 million left.
Though it appears that his fundraising is slowing a bit. He needs a good buzz to keep the money coming.
Washington is having problems,
Health care official Joyce Washington raised $95,811 in contributions during the period and donated another $230,000 of her own to her campaign. Washington had spent $62,135 since entering the race and had $439,293 left.
She can't self-finance and that take isn't going to do it.
But who kows what she is really trying to do.
archpundit 7/16/2003 12:30:17 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Maybe It Is Just Me...
But if I were to target Rod Blagojevich as part of a broad effort to make Illinois more conservative, I'd pick someone a hell of a lot more likeable than Patrick O'Malley. For one, he can't win his own primary because Republicans dislike the guy so much and for two, he ran those hysterical commercials where he ranted and raved about Jim Ryan sending his (O'Malley's) negatives up.
It's fine to rail against the Combine, but you gotta be slicker.
Rauschenberger is running for Senate so they probably didn't want him out front, but while sarcastic and tart (as Roesser put it) as he is he is somewhat likable.
archpundit 7/15/2003 5:08:20 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Top Referrers...
I thought I'd pay tribute to those who I get traffic from.
The largest one day referral was Joe Conason for the article on the CCC and John Ashcroft. It killed the server.
On other days though,
4063 21.01% http://www.dailykos.com/
495 2.56% http://www.dailykos.com
242 1.25% http://dailykos.com/
567 2.93% http://atrios.blogspot.com/
543 2.80% http://rittenhouse.blogspot.com/
519 2.68% http://hnn.us/articles/900.html
440 2.27% http://www.polstate.com/
428 2.21% http://www.cursor.org/
334 1.72% http://www.mydd.com/
279 1.44% http://deancalltoaction.blogspot.com/
209 1.08% http://bodyandsoul.blogspot.com/
207 1.07% http://www.blogforamerica.com/
204 1.05% http://www.talkleft.com/
195 1.00% http://www.maxspeak.org/gm/index.htm
126 0.65% http://www.liberaloasis.com/
113 0.58% http://hnn.us/articles/1348.html
112 0.57% http://www.unsubscibe.com/
I've eliminated blogstudio itself and blogs no longer running.
Kos generates about 25% of referrals and so he gets a big hand as does everyone up there including Jeff Weigand who was one of the first to link to me. MyDD, Rittenhouse Review, Tom Spencer, Atrios, Max Sawicky, Jeralyn Merritt and many others also pull in a lot of hits and I thank all of them. Not listed above is Off the Kuff and Crooked Timber who also bring a lot of traffic--with Crooked Timber creating a serious uptick since it started.
So just thanks--and let me know if you link to me, I'll add you to the blogroll.
archpundit 7/15/2003 5:01:06 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Black Helicopters and Cyclists
Damn cyclists are taking over Jersey County. As usual, Joyce Morrison is damn near incoherent, but damn funny.
If you can't navigate around traffic, of which cyclists are, don't drive.
Bicycles have been around for a long time and brought joy to many. If used responsibly, a bicycle is a wonderful source of exercise and recreation. But are we being prepared to be forced to use bicycles for our major mode of transportation? Could it be this activity is purposely being placed into an elitist status with no restrictions and licensing in an effort to lure people into this mental mode?
archpundit 7/15/2003 2:48:07 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
At Least Lugar is Preparing Us
While the President tries to avoid responsibility for Yellowcake, Dick Lugar is pointing out the obvious in Iraq and the war on terrorism.
--It will take time
--We can't do it alone
--We need a peacekeeping force
My only complaint,
Let's stop dismissing nation-building as "international social work," somehow unworthy of a great power. To the contrary, it's a basic step toward victory in the war on terrorism.
To be fair, he made this point in 2000, but he should have been screaming it from the floor of the Senate.
archpundit 7/15/2003 1:45:44 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
French Plot to Derail Lance
Yes, I know they claim it is an agricultural protest, but send troops now to help Lance defend the yellow jersey. Apparently a protest held up the peloton for 90 seconds today, but there was no harm and no off-roading. Tomorrow is a 'rest day'.
archpundit 7/15/2003 1:37:23 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Title IX Supporters: Remeber Wellstone
The Trib points out that benefits of Title IX and suggest the Bush administration's decision to not make any changes is a good thing.
Yes it is, and in memory of Paul Wellstone, remember his and Jim Leach's effort to offer scholarships to those in Olympic Sports--wrestling is one example of this.
On another related Jim Leach note, there is a push to break the wall between commerce and banking--such a move would allow corporations like Walmart to run banks. Leach stopped Clinton and Phil Gramm from doing this during banking reform due to the consequences on the economy as a whole. Connecting the two areas creates intimate ties between industry and banking that leads to all sorts of perverse incentives. Such ties are cited as one reason the German economy is often bogged down during mild downturns. Unfortunately, Leach is no longer head of the relevant committee so such a move may gain steam.
archpundit 7/15/2003 1:33:44 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
I know I'm Supposed to Be Appalled
By cameras catching people running red lights, but I just can't get worked up about it as Eric Zorn does. But my preference is that they make sure to get the police I see running red lights around St. Louis (with lights off).
archpundit 7/15/2003 1:11:33 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Fellowship Baptist Creation Science Fair
Via Henry at Crooked Timber
Is a wonderful satire of Fellowship Baptist Creation Science Fair
archpundit 7/15/2003 1:07:41 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
And if You Feel Like I Do
Give to Dean (I'll have a link or something in a couple days) and the DNC--just go to the right for E-Patriots donations.
archpundit 7/15/2003 12:42:17 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Is Dean Electable?
Both prophets of current Democrats are suggesting that Dean isn't electable in the general election. John Judis took up the argument in Salon last week and Ruy Teixeira posted on Donkey Rising the same essential argument taking to task Jerome Armstrong of MyDD (and an early supporter and inspiration to ArchPundit) and Tapped who are confused because Judis argues that by only appealing to the voters that EDM (buy at the bottom) say are increasing Dean is destined to lose. As a side note, I can't recommend highly enough the most recent issue of the American Political Science Review with an article by Norman Schofeld and Gary Miller who make an incredibly well argued point about how parties shift over time on two axes of economics and social issues.
Ruy gets it right (obviously, he wrote the book with Judis) when he says,
DR is pretty familiar with the EDM thesis and can assure TAPPED and MyDD that there is no contradiction. The key point is that political leadership involves building coalitions that reach outside your base and absorb independent and moderate voters who are leaning your way. Clinton's strength was being able to synthesize the views of professionals with those of older elements of the Democratic coalition and present that synthesis in a way that made enough independent and moderate voters feel it was safe to vote Democratic. That includes the white working class and culturally conservative voters Dean is likely to have the most trouble with.
Dean will have an extra barrier I think, but I do disagree that it is fatal. Why?
Ironically, TNR's &c makes the point I would in the post STYLE POINTS (note to Ruy--they have permalinks!).
Once you realize that's the question, then Howard Dean's "visceral longing" strategy doesn't look like such a disaster. There are, after all, only two ways to satisfy the party's left-leaning base. The first is on the level of policy--that is, taking liberal positions. The second is on the level of tone--that is, angrily denouncing the president with overheated rhetoric. The beauty of the latter is that it's essentially contentless: It satisfies the base without locking you into any particular policy positions, meaning you're free to fill in the details of those positions as you see fit. And in Dean's case, those details happen to be pretty centrist (with the exception of his opposition to the war; more on that below): He's a relative moderate on gun control, the death penalty, trade, and fiscal matters.
Now you could certainly argue, as Brownstein does, that Dean's anger will scare away some swing voters. But, again, the question isn't whether it scares away swing voters. The question is, how many? And, any way you slice it, you probably scare away fewer swing voters by moving to the left of them tonally than you do by moving to the left of them ideologically.
At the same time, it becomes much, much easier to tack to the center after you win the nomination if you've appealed to the left through style rather than substance. Whereas someone like Dick Gephardt would risk alienating his blue-collar supporters when he began waffling on an issue like trade to lure moderates in the general election, Dean could further moderate his policies without any risk of defection on the left, since his support on the left had little to do with ideology in the first place.
I'll add one bit that Tapped touched on yesterday. The rank and file Democrats are angry. I'm normally a DLC guy who urges respect for interventionist foreign policy, balanced budgets, market based regulation and social welfare policies, and respect for cultural norms while not giving up a committment to human rights.
And quite frankly, I'm pissed. I'm angry at a party that has rolled over for a President that is bankrupting the country, has no respect for civil liberties, no respect for a professionalized bureaucracy whether it be intelligence or the environment, has hampered our relationship with a number of allies and may yet bring down Tony Blair, and is passing unfunded mandates out like they are cotton candy. And I'm especially angry that my party continues to try bipartisanship when Bush is clearly not interested.
It is either time to fight the man's policies or roll over and let him scratch our tummies. Lieberman would have us do just that and Kucinich would have us meditate and try and levitate. Dean motivates people like me in a way that hasn't happened in a long time.
But to the point of Dean's electability, It isn't as clear cut as Judis and Teixeira try to make it. They assume that Dean is to ideologically to the left--when he really isn't. But they do argue that the median voter theorem is essentially correct with the best strategy to get close to the middle of the electorate as possible without alienating the base. Dean is pretty close to dead center for most Americans on most issues. The only two issues he sticks out on are Iraq and civil unions. I'm not sure civil unions are a hindrance to Dean because he chose not to pursue actual marriage as the rule. And Iraq isn't clear cut given he isn't a peacenik like Kucinich who has stolen the Natural Law Party's idea for a Department of Peace.
Some conservative bloggers have suggested Dean may or may not be the preferred candidate of Republicans, but that assumes the issue is Iraq in isolation. Nothing else about Dean is far to the left.
Now, if the economy is good and Iraq is the big issue, he loses, but so do the other candidates. If the economy is not so good the salient issue probably isn't Iraq, but the economy and there Dean is able to do exactly what Clinton did by making moderates feel safe voting for Democrats who advocate balanced budgets.
Dean's challenge is to return to the middle during the general election campaign. While he doesn't have to move to the center on policy because he is essentially there, he has to change the language to appeal to the ever fickle press corps that often paints candidates with caricatures and to moderate swing voters who aren't paying attention right now. He can still be strong and assertive, but he has to hit issues that appeal to both groups.
Will civil unions concern people? Yes, but a talented candidate can be forthright about the circumstances and the fair nature of the policy. Is Iraq going to cost some votes? Probably, but how many of those votes were winnable anyway? Can Dean build a coalition of more traditional Democrats and the emerging blocks by appealing to the center on policy and appealing to left on anger? I won't guarantee it, but I think he can. And more important, the field isn't producing candidates that are going to do much better with white working class candidates or culturally conservative voters. Kerry, no. Lieberman, maybe but he alienates many Democrats. Gephardt? Not likely from what I've seen in St. Louis in recent years. Kucinich? I vote Green. Graham? Maybe, but the primaries are tough for him. Edwards--probably, but has a long way to go to win over primary voters.
It is entirely possible that the press will portray Dean as something close to a radical leftist if the meme gets started and stays that way and he'll lose if that is the case. Currently, the primary people reinforcing that erroneous perception are the DLC and Teixiera and Judis.
archpundit 7/15/2003 12:37:36 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Deficits, Deficits
455 Billion. But they will decline. Now, Max Sawicky will tell you deficits don't matter much, but the reality is that the conditions he always places on good deficit spending assumes some sort of investment being made--but we aren't making investments of any consequence and we are spending money we need to prepare for the Boomer retirement.
I'm not even going to bitch about Bush's spending because, well, I'm tired of it. If you want to spend, you have to tax. He wants it both ways and of all possible solutions, that is the worst long term solution.
archpundit 7/15/2003 11:20:48 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Dutch Sheets and Pat Robertson: Peas in a Pod
Not to be outdone by porn-star named evangelist Dutch Sheets, Pat Robertson has started his own offensive prayer....errr...he says prayer offensive.
Personally, I'm praying for the good people of Liberia
archpundit 7/15/2003 9:25:26 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Not-To-Bright
Kieran Healy appropriately addresses what I thought was a satirical op-ed about brights.
So apparently the Op-Ed wasn't satire.
archpundit 7/14/2003 10:36:02 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
I'm all for better ballot access and stuff
And I think we should make it easier for the Greens and Libertarians to get on the ballot and take part in forums, but can we please relegate Vic Roberts to the looney bin?
Retired coal miner Vic Roberts of Downstate Taylorville, who carried his mining helmet to the stage, repeatedly questioned the operations of the Federal Reserve Board and presented himself as a Democrat who would fight for the "everyday way of life."
Vic is pretty much LaRouche with a coal miner's hat.
archpundit 7/14/2003 5:23:17 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Game Theoretic Nightmare=Great Television
The reason economists are often so smug about their ability to analyze human behavior is because they slice off the easy portion of it where one can generally safely assume the behavior is motivated by economic self-interest.
Of course, the world is much more complex once one has to examine where preferences change and that is the beauty of the
The Wire
And then there's "The Wire" (Sundays at 9:30 p.m. on HBO, with repeats throughout the week), a richly textured universe unto itself, populated by detectives, drug dealers, longshoremen, politicians and lawyers who have motives so diverse, surprising and complicated, each scene seems to reveal a new layer of depth and complexity. Watching this series is like navigating the streets of a genius-level SimCity -- it takes a while to grasp just how far from the TV-land basics creator David Simon is willing to wander.
Since Homicide went off the air, I've been aching for another show that qualifies as Best Damn Show on Television and we have a winner in another show set in Baltimore and not surprisingly, involves David Simon on the creative team.
Let's hope this doesn't spawn another frightful rant by creationist sounding Megan McCardle over what is truly social science.
archpundit 7/14/2003 5:04:35 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Gerry Chico is endorsed by The Officer
I'm unclear on why Chico would seek out the endorsement of Carl Officer, Mayor of East St. Louis, but Chico got it. Carl is strange to say the least and he doesn't control the Central Committee so such an endorsement doesn't do a whole lot. Then again, Chico is raising money, but having a hard time getting traction.
archpundit 7/14/2003 4:21:44 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Miquelon Scandal
Well, the Miriam Miquelon resignation got real interesting real quick.
Miquelon survived the attempts by many in St. Clair County to deny her appointment as US Attorney for the Southern District of Illinois. She was appointed by Peter Fitzgerald as a tough prosecutor not afraid to go after political corruption and was the lead prosecutor against Amiel Cueto. Those from around St. Clair tried to block her nomination because they were concerned that she would take a hard look at corruption in the County and maybe bag a few big fish.
Now allegations are flying that Miquelon targeted people who opposed her nomination and may well have had an affair with an employee and then intimidated people from reporting it.
I don't know what the hell to make of it all, but given the nature of the corruption and grudges in this case, truth will probably be the first casualty.
archpundit 7/14/2003 4:16:36 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Simmons out--my that was quick
John Simmons, the downstate trial lawyer, left the US Senate race last week after having pledged $40 million to win the race. Instead, he is endorsing Dan Hynes.
Can Costello be far behind. Costello spoke very warmly of Simmons recently--giving one the impression that he used his leverage to move Simmons to the Hynes camp.
Why does one drop his promise to spend $40 million so quickly?
A) He was a gadfly hit with a reality sandwich
B) He was a pawn to scare Hull out of the race
C) He was a pawn of Costello's to get some leverage
D) He was using his candidacy to get some leverage for another run
I don't know which is more likely, but none of the options are particularly attractive. And again, an establishment candidate is using Jerry Costello to win despite his ties to organized crime.
archpundit 7/14/2003 2:22:06 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
6 Years in Federal Prison and He Still has a Law License
Amiel Cueto resurfaces in the news as Miquelon's scandal breaks. One might think this isn't a coincidence.
Cueto's lawyer is arguing that even if he did break the law, it doesn't mean he should be disbarred.
"Even (if) Cueto's acts did constitute obstruction of justice and conspiracy ..., those acts were not in violation of any of the Illinois Rules of Professional Conduct"
Cueto is a long time associate of Metro East Congressman Jerry Costello and was sent to prison for obstructing an investigation into him regarding his attempts to obtain a casino license with unindicted coconspirator Costello.
archpundit 7/14/2003 2:15:27 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Why so Much about Hull?
Well, he is actually running and running on-line. Some of the coverage of on-line efforts miss the importance of on the ground efforts to reach key constituencies that don't use the internet regularly, but on-line activism helps reach people who often aren't typical advocacy group members, but are politically active.
Hull is announcing the start of meet-ups which is a good idea and helps connect potential on the ground workers when you can't rely upon the regular party workers. Interestingly, The Common Space is a venue for the Metro East region--still working out the kinks given it wouldn't generally be convenient for Metro Easters, but I highly recommend it to others. Hull visited Belleville already and I missed it do to weather, but the tour seems to be a positive way to build name recognition while also doing so on the internet and on television.
And did he go to Lucca in Bloomington? Hell yes--go down to the pic next to Mike Kelleher (not a Senate candidate), former Congressional and Lieutenant Governor Candidate and next to that is a pic of the Lucca Grill.
The key to a Hull campaign is to build energy as an insurgent. A key way to do that is to appeal to people outside the general party framework and while such campaigns using the internet are relatively new, this is a good start for a statewide campaign. The other web sites are largely useless, though Obama has some grassroots efforts to start meetups for him.
archpundit 7/14/2003 1:02:51 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Interesting FEC Regulation
Blair Hull's ads (I've only caught them on the net, but they are playing in St. Louis metro) have an interesting feature,
Apparently, all federal candidates are going to have to do what Democratic U.S. Senate contender BLAIR HULL is doing in his television ads - saying that he authorized the messages.
In a 30-second ad about how he wants to create jobs in Illinois, Hull says on screen: "I'm Blair Hull, and I approved this ad because we need to get Illinois back to work."
Hull is doing it because of new FEC regs requiring,
Part of that law requires that a candidate-sponsored TV ad "must include a statement that identifies the candidate and states that he or she has approved the communication. The candidate shall convey the statement either:
(A) Through an unobscured, full-screen view of himself or herself making the statement, or
(B) Through a voice-over by himself or herself, accompanied by a clearly identifiable photographic or similar image of the candidate."
The interesting question is will negative ads be as easy to run? It's hard to say, but candidates usually want as little identification with a negative ad as possible to avoid association with negatives. I mean it won't stop the Patrick O'Malley's of the world, but he is entertaining at least.
archpundit 7/14/2003 12:44:26 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Kjellander Named Great Lakes Bush-Cheney '04 Chair
How will the Illinois Leader react to a leading moderate being named by Rove? Heh.
Via the Sunday Bernard Schoenberg column
archpundit 7/14/2003 12:40:33 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Blagojevich 1, Topinka 0
Jeff Trigg and Bill Dennis already hit on Blagojevich outflanking Jesse White and Judy Baar Topinka on office budget cuts.
Topinka, the best hope the Republicans have of defeating Blagojevich in 2006, is now in the awkward position of complaining about budget cuts. And she can't even claim the governor's motives were political because Democrat White's budget will be slashed as much as hers.
Between this and the federal subpeonas Topinka just put herself in a big hole for the 2006 Gubernatorial Election. All Rod has to do is pull out her complaints and put 'em on the air. Of course, that assumes that is her and not the ever fire breathing Patrick O'Malley in the general election. Rod may be a bit sleazy, but he is damn talented, and on top of it he just triangulated the SoS getting him essentially good press with no real cost.
I only mildly disagree with Jeff Trigg that this turns the Illinois Democratic Party into a circular firing squad. Ultimately the Illinois GOP is a party split on ideology and so they tend to turn on each other. The fight between moderates and conservatives isn't just a fight over turf or patronage or pork, it is a fight over control of the party. The Illinois Democrats are relatively on the same ideological page and so the intraparty warfare is kept down to typical turf wars--like this.
That being said, while I disagree with the level of spending that Jeff or Bill would have for the State of Illinois, I agree that Illinois doesn't have a budget crisis--it has a structural spending problem that focuses too much on pork and too little on essential services.
archpundit 7/14/2003 12:35:20 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
This is Your Steve Neal on Crack
Moseley Braun's presidential bid must be taken seriously.
I'm not sure what the hell got into him, but the best line is when he says,
The Rev. Jesse L. Jackson, who made history 20 years ago when he became the first African American to make a serious bid for the presidency, said Moseley Braun's campaign is important and that women are rallying to her cause. Although Jackson has not made an endorsement, he is friendly toward her candidacy.
Of course Jesse is friendly, she is a stalking horse candidate to Al Sharpton who Jesse hates.
archpundit 7/14/2003 12:17:11 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Outfit Earthquake
John Kass related the background on some ongoing investigations into Outfit hits and business over the last 30 years. The low rumble you hear is the beginnings of an earthquake to the Outfit's organization and the politicians tied to it.
I can't imagine a more fun disaster to watch.
archpundit 7/14/2003 12:04:36 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Also, How About the Readability?
Let me know how readable the background makes the site.
And don't worry, despite the last several posts this hasn't become a sports blog.
archpundit 7/14/2003 11:12:33 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Beloki out, Lance up 21", Hamilton stays close
Beloki fell and apparently forced Lance off of the road and across a field (click through to today's race). I've got to see that tonight.
Hamilton stayed with the front group as did Ullrich.
archpundit 7/14/2003 11:08:57 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Site Changes
Why so slow with the Juicy Miquelon story? I've been busy updating the template and such.
To the left, you'll notice a bunch of changes to the blogroll. Expanded Illinois and Missouri blogs are two big features, but I've also added a bunch of blogs that link to me.
Especially important is Tim Lambert's Deltoid. Tim is the Tenacious T on the case of John Lott. I've been swamped lately and haven't kept up on this blog enough--check it out and I look forward to more Lott and more general topics from Tim who is especially thoughtful.
Another blog I'll call attention to is the new joint effort by academic related folks on the left at Crooked Timber. Henry Farrel and Kieran Healy are two of the new bloggers and they are already driving a lot of traffic this way.
And two blogs have been added from my Alma Mater--figure it out and win a no-prize (they are excluded from the competition).
Other significant changes--Donate to the DNC! For those who come here for Democratic Politics-give until it hurts. Please. I'll post results after they start to roll in. The DNC is the only organization that can support the nominee after the primaries drain the coffers of the nominee.
I've also added two tip jars. I won't say much about them other than give if you feel like it and I'll use the money to keep the site running. The site will run if you give or not, but I'll make some improvements if enough comes in. I've also added an Amazon wishlist.
A final change is I've added some links to Amazon including a search engine and some books I highly suggest (except Three Strikes of which I've only heard good things). Click through me and I get some kickbacks. If you don't have a better deal, consider it. Again the money will be used for the site.
I'll be updating again sometime on Monday--I have an eye appointment though so it might not be until later when my eyes are undilated.
archpundit 7/14/2003 12:31:56 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Armstrong in Yellow
Unsurprising, but hey, Lance puts time on all the important riders except Beloki. Strangely, this is being seen as weakness by many.
One interesting note is that Bernard Hinault predicted that Lance wouldn't attack today and would save himself for the Pyrenees. It's hard to say if he was right since the pace was so incredibly fast that Lance's strategy was determined by events.
What is surprising? Tyler is in 6th only 1:52 behind--with a broken clavicle--in two spots. He is ahead of all of the true contenders except Lance and Beloki--18 seconds ahead of Ullrich.
That being said, more content later on Monday.
archpundit 7/13/2003 11:55:00 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Top Eight Riders
Only an artifact of today, but the top 8 are,
1. Victor Hugo Pena
2. Lance Armstrong
3. Viatcheslav Ekimov
4. George Hincapie
5. Jose Luis Rubiera
6. Roberto Heras
7. Pavel Padrnos
8. Floyd Landis.
archpundit 7/09/2003 10:27:33 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
USPS In 1st at 3rd Check Point
Sweet--a Spaniard riding for a US based named after a romantic French writer is about to take the yellow.
UPDATE--DOH--he is Colombian.
archpundit 7/09/2003 10:05:27 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
USPS On Pace For 2nd maybe more
The Team has been steadily increasing its time during the team time trial and Pena may be headed for the Yellow Jersey.
archpundit 7/09/2003 9:58:19 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Tame Stage
Just about nothing exciting happened today at the Tour, but tomorrow is the Team Time Trial. Interestingly, if USPS takes the stage, Pena will be wearing the Yellow Jersey and not Lance.
archpundit 7/08/2003 12:55:21 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
No One Said He Was an Evolutionary Biologist
But he is hell of a manager
In other news, Patterson is out for the season with Hubbard coming up from Iowa.
Remember, this is a Cubs free zone when they are in first.
archpundit 7/08/2003 9:46:38 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
A Dream Come True
Too bad I couldn't watch. Even worse there is a former perma-smile Dean who should be inside.
archpundit 7/08/2003 2:17:19 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Man on Dog Crap at the Leader
Why let Santorum have all the fun as a bigot, Dan Zanoza at the Illinois Leader goes to the slippery slope argument that once one accepts homosexuals as human beings deserving of civil rights just as anyone else, next it will be man and other species. Yeah.
A more heartening look is from Ruy Texiera at his new blog, Donkey Rising. Scroll down to It's a Postindustrial Thing: You Wouldn't Understand--one of the finest blog subject headings I've read.
archpundit 7/08/2003 1:28:45 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hull's Outreach and OUTreach
While whispers around the Hull campaign have painted him as a lot more savvy than people realize, there is always a bit of trepidation. Other multi-millionaires throwing their hat in the ring have been somewhat lacking such as the current Senator who shares a last name with Dave Corzine, lackluster center for the Bulls. John Corzine ran a somewhat tone deaf campaign in a Democratic state and pulled out a win, but only by spending tons of cash over what he expected.
Hull has shown some smart tactics and one is reported in Kristine McQueary's column this week.
The loose cannon so far is Thornton Township, where Democratic Committeeman Frank Zuccarelli has yet to pick a side. He shared a long lunch recently with Hull ? the first in the field to reach out to Zuccarelli, surprisingly. That scored points.
Hull is white, and Thornton Township tends to pick black candidates in primaries (Roland Burris was an overwhelming favorite in the gubernatorial primary).
But if the "Z Team" busts it out for Hull, it could get interesting. The township churned out an impressive 30,000 votes during the gubernatorial primary and about 48,000 votes in the general ? 35,708 of which went to Blagojevich.
On the more adventurous side, Hull had a special appearance on his Pride Parade float,
Democratic U.S. Senate hopeful Blair Hull was scheduled to host a special impersonator aboard his float in the Gay Pride Parade this weekend.
Hint: If she could turn back time, if she could find a way, she'd take back the words that hurt you, and you'd stay.
It's all about coalitions. Give him some credit for going all the way and not just acting like a stuffed shirt. Now, if he can just promise to bring Trent Lott back for a parade--that would be worth just about anything to see.
Speaking of the Pride Parade, John Birch (kid never had a chance) seems to fit in well at the parade.
And on another front, Dan Rutherford seems to be thinking about a run at Secretary of State.
Rutherford has been the focal point for a series of rumors being a bachelor in politics--the rumor being he has a Mark Foley problem--being gay in a socially conservative party. These are ugly rumors not because what they say about Rutherford, but that they exist at all coming from the quarters they do. One rumor making its way around the Capitol was that some labor union guys had a video tape of him coming out of a gay bar. True or not, those supporting the socially progressive party should know better.
After all, if social conservatives think this is the case, they'll be happy to go on a jihad themselves that is just as ugly as the supposed tape by labor guys. It doesn't even buy you political gain, it simply invades his privacy. (ED--didn't you just do that? Depends on whether one assumes the rumors to be true--I don't necessarily and it calls out those already making the sounds--the point being his sexuality is his own damn business so everyone should back off).
archpundit 7/08/2003 1:18:00 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Problem of Public School Choice: Transportation
As Wellston prepares to allow students to transfer to accredited schools, it dawns on many that there aren't many place to go. U City will pick up several students, but the other districts are severely limited. Even harder, there are few transportation options besides U City. More on this later.
archpundit 7/08/2003 12:48:15 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Bad News for the East Side
A recurrent theme in this blog is the consistent nature of corruption in Metro East St. Clair County. One of the few bright spots for the area was the appointment of Miriam Miquelon as US Attorney for the Southern District of Illinois. It seems she is stepping down. No reason given yet, but it might be due to pressure or she planned to step down in the next year, but wanted Fitzgerald to have influence over her replacement before he left office. More later, I'm sure.
archpundit 7/07/2003 11:59:54 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The George Ryan Diva Story
G-Ry was notoriously thin skinned and much of that was shown in his shots at people in his own party during 2002. He also believed strongly in loyalty and the premium may have kept Scott Falwell close to him even after being convicted--thus creating the one person who could blow the whistle on him as a loyal soldier who falls on the sword. During the campaign he took shots at Kris Cohn and especially Jim Ryan for running away from him and in a bizarre twist, chastised Lisa Madigan for saying she would investigate her own father.
The Sun-Times does a profile of The George Ryan Years: Tales of Clout with a hysterical anecdote,
SPRINGFIELD--Being blunt about how scandal had ruined George Ryan's political fortunes almost cost state Sen. Wendell Jones $1.7 million.
In early 2001, after the Palatine Republican told the Chicago Sun-Times it would be a "good thing" if Ryan didn't seek re-election, the former governor retaliated in private by halting Illinois FIRST construction projects in Jones' district for three months.
Realizing he had ruffled Ryan's feathers, the senator asked for and was granted a special audience with him. In a memo to the governor about the meeting, a Ryan aide attached the news article and wrote that Jones would "apologize for comments he made regarding your re-election chances. Senator Jones says he regrets the comments and did not want to offend you with them."
After the apology, Jones now recalls, "all of a sudden, my projects began to move. That's the way George Ryan was."
Of course, the next anecdote points out Skip Saviano's close ties,
"Mr. Duffy and Mr. Anderson will both have fund-raising checks for you on Friday, but they will give them to Skip Saviano before the meeting so that Skip can give them to you at a more appropriate time," Ryan's legislative liaison Kraig Lounsberry wrote. "The coroners would like to thank you."
Saviano was one of the people Tom Cross selected to run the funds for the Republican House Caucus once they 'decentralized' the money control from simply the House Republican Leader. He also is from River Forest and, um, has other ties, let's say.
One of the favorite punching bags of this blog makes an appearance in the Illinois First program,
At the time, Ryan denied politics was behind an announcement touting $795,000 in Illinois FIRST projects obtained by former state Rep. Tim Johnson (R-Sydney), who was in a bitter primary for an open congressional seat.
However, an internal memo prepping Ryan for the event indicates otherwise, noting prominently that "one of Johnson's opponents has raised Illinois FIRST as a campaign issue." The memo also encouraged the governor to pad Johnson's pork tally by bringing up a previously announced $285,000 grant for a sewer plant "since it is one of the major projects sponsored by Representative Johnson," staffer Laurence Msall wrote.
Johnson went on to win the congressional seat.
Against one of the most decent human beings to run for a Congressional Seat in the general election--Mike Kelleher. From talking to people who have worked for Kelleher he is the kind of guy who would be Mr. Smith goes to Washington, much like Jim Leach of Iowa. Tim Johnson is, well, a moron and well, I'll stop after the cheap shot the other day.
Overall, the story paints an accurate picture of one of the most egregious abusers of the political system in Illinois. There certainly are others who are happy to game the system, but Ryan took it to another level out of personal arrogance and sense of entitlement that no politician should possess.
archpundit 7/07/2003 11:50:13 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Chicago and Airlines Reach Deal On O'Hare
The only obstacle left is for Blagojevich to sign the bill ending state veto of portions of the project and fast condemnation powers.
It's about time. Expanding O'Hare will not keep traffic efficiency stable while the state decides what to do about another facility. The great lie about Peotone was that it would solve the problem. It might be a needed facility over and above O'Hare, but it couldn't have taken over the role of primary airport.
While the effects of O'Hare congestion have been lessened since 9-11, the slow increase in traffic indicates the same problems will be reappearing soon. By getting a start now, O'Hare will be close to solving the problem.
None of this means there shouldn't be greater oversight of the contracting process.
archpundit 7/07/2003 4:13:32 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
How Is This Any Different From His Other Comments?
Michael Savage got canned from MSNBC for
"So you're one of those sodomists. Are you a sodomite?" Savage asked.
The caller replied: "Yes, I am."
"Oh, you're one of the sodomites," Savage said. "You should only get AIDS and die, you pig. How's that? Why don't you see if you can sue me, you pig. You got nothing better than to put me down, you piece of garbage. You have got nothing to do today, go eat a sausage and choke on it."
He asked for another phone caller who "didn't have a nice night in the bathhouse who's angry at me today."
These bums "mean nothing to me," he said.
While I admit to not listening in often, this seems to be very garden variety Savage--what did MSNBC think they would be getting?
archpundit 7/07/2003 4:00:29 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hamilton Finishes w/Broken Collarbone
Tyler Hamilton finished the second stage of the Tour de France despite breaking his collarbone yesterday.
It is hard to imagine Tyler can finish top five with the collarbone, but this is amazing enough. Of course, the chance for a podium of Americans pretty much ended with Leipheimer having to leave the race yesterday.
When the tour hits the mountains Saturday expect pretty much constant Tour blogging and unabashed Lance partisanship--unless Tyler pulls a miracle out. Then lots of vascillating.
And remember,
SUNDAY, SUNDAY, SUNDAY (in loud Peoria Civic Center monster truck voice over tone) is L'Alpe d'Huez.
archpundit 7/07/2003 12:21:26 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Dutch Sheets is Back and Praying for a Court Vacancy
You see, the national restoration won't happen unless,
"In my heart and mind, this call for prayer is not to be for one week or one month," he said. "It's the beginning of a long-term prayer siege in order to have a breakthrough in the court. It's the paramount prayer issue in this nation right now."
archpundit 7/03/2003 5:23:47 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The "So-Called Gay Agenda" roundup
Michael Kinsley has a generally good article up at Slate that suggests privatizing marriage. My only disagreement is that marriage does involve contracts to be enforced and the state should have a role in such enforcement--especially with children involved. I think Michael and I could find a happy medium.
Carol Marin reminds us of the most annoying phrase ever,
"God made Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve!" Surely to be replaced tomorrow with my short attention span. Also a good column on the stupidity of stopping gay people from being married.
archpundit 7/02/2003 3:49:24 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
DCFS Muzzling Itself and Contractors
Jeff Trigg picks up on an important DCFS Story, but doesn't go far enough in blasting them...
The Trib is reporting that DCFS is muzzling contractors from talking to the media.
Not only that, but they are threatening to renege on contracts,
DCFS imposed this sudden new condition on two child welfare experts appointed to monitor the beleaguered Maryville Academy's Des Plaines campus. Both signed a contract with DCFS seven months ago upon taking responsibility for keeping tabs on whether the residential treatment home for adolescents was making progress after a handful of troubling incidents last year. Both had expected to get paid.
But according to Cook County Public Guardian Patrick Murphy, both were informed late last week that if they didn't sign a fresh new contract sent to them by the end of the fiscal year--Monday--they wouldn't get paid for the work already done.
The can be done the easy way--a call from the Governor asking what the hell they are thinking--or it can be done the hard way in DCFS losing a lawsuit,
The courts and the U.S. Constitution are fairly clear on the issue of workers' and contractors' rights to free speech on issues of public concern.
In 2001, a federal judge in Rhode Island threw out the Providence police chief's new policy preventing officers from talking to the media without his prior approval, declaring it unconstitutional.
In 2002, a state-funded hospital in West Virginia lifted a similar policy imposed on its employees after the American Civil Liberties Union filed suit.
I'm all for the ACLU, but I'd rather state government not pick up their court costs on lost causes--especially when the state goverment is wrong, wrong, wrong.
Circumventing the normal chain of information is essential in many child endangerment cases and this sort of crap only endangers children.
archpundit 7/02/2003 3:12:14 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Get Phyllis the OED
Schlafly makes another unfortunate appearance ranting about the ERA .
It doesn't mention women, it only mentions sex. It calls for equal rights according to sex. And that is why it is perfectly obvious that it would require same sex marriage licenses.
If the City Clerk declined to give a marriage license to a man and a man it is self-evident that you have discriminated on account of sex. I was on the platform with the Watergate Senator Sam Irvin (Senator Irvin chaired the investigation of Watergate), who was considered a Constitutional authority when he was in the Senate, and he said, I don't know any group that the ERA would benefit except homosexuals. Remember the word in the ERA is sex, it's not women.
Well, no Phyllis, the ERA is referring to this definition from the OED and everyone but you and your lackeys seem to at least understand it,
Either of the two divisions of organic beings distinguished as male and female respectively; the males or the females (of a species, etc., esp. of the human race) viewed collectively.
And let me recommend the OED definition of sex to everyone, their trying to deal with slang in a very uptight OED sort of way is amusing.
archpundit 7/02/2003 3:05:14 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Conspiracy Widens--Tim Johnson and the LCV in cahoots
Joyce Morrison tries to argue that Tim Johnson (R-IL 15 is a radical environmentalist. I'm guessing he was too drunk to know which button to push...
Wow that was a cheap shot. But seriously folks, trying to paint Johnson as a radical environmentalist along with Peter Fitzgerald tends to sink ones credibility. You might disagree with some votes of theirs, but neither is the Manchurian Candidate.
archpundit 7/02/2003 2:57:19 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Seduction of the Innocent @ Illinois Leader
Never a site to leave the 1950s paranoia where it belongs--the 1950s, the Illinois Leaders' columnist Dan Zanoza takes on Harry Potter and Buffy.
Now taking on Potter as an occult gateway book is likely to get you scoffed at in the Blogosphere, but taking on Buffy? Watch out pal--there is one thing that unites all political persuasions in the Blogosphere and that is love of Buffy.
However, many feel the Harry Potter books are not as innocent as some would like us to believe
...
Children are being exposed to the occult, while naive but well-meaning adults praise the books simply because students are reading. According to this rationale, we should be happy no matter what children are reading, including pornographic material.
...
Today television is inundated with programs like Buffy, the Vampire Slayer, Charmed and a host of other shows steeped in the occult and certainly targeted at America's youth.
Some say it's all fantasy, just good clean entertainment. But it seems many children are taking this so-called innocent flight of fantasy seriously.
...
Adolescents, who are naturally insecure, are experimenting with the dark arts at alarming rates. For example, Wicca clubs are the latest extracurricular fad at many public high schools
Yeah, those Wiccans are taking over...
archpundit 7/02/2003 2:48:46 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Edgar Vs. G-Ry
Cal Skinner contributes one of the best pieces that disects the differences between how George Ryan and Jim Edgar ran the Secretary of State's Office. The SOS has long been a patronage offices and there are certainly some skeletons in Edgar's closet, but ultimately, Edgar put in place a system that didn't tolerate wide spread corruption in the office.
?We did have corruption in that office,? Lawrence remembered. ?The difference is that we addressed it squarely. We had an Inspector General who was a career law enforcement officer. He was on leave from the Illinois State Police, so if he felt he was being compromised in any way he would not be out of a job. He had the full support of Secretary Edgar.
?I can?t think any agency where there hasn?t been some wrong-doing,? Lawrence continued. ?The key to me is the culture that is set by the elected official. If the elected official doesn?t set the right culture, the wrong-doing is going to go unaddressed and it is going to increase.?
Grosboll revealed that he spent almost half of his time each day as chief of staff ?on personnel and undercover operations, matters involving whether someone in the office was doing something improper, how to handle an employee and getting updates on investigations.
Another key difference was,
Grosboll pointed out a structural difference in the way the two administrations operated. Under Edgar, the chief of staff ran the government side of the Secretary of State?s Office. The political side was separate.
Ryan started out that way with the former IRS district head Ira Loeb as his chief of staff with Scott Fawell running the political end. After about a year, Fawell took control. Loeb got sick. With Loeb?s death, power was concentrated both, in fact, and on the organization chart in Fawell?s hands.
archpundit 7/02/2003 2:23:34 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Do NOT CALL ME!
For those who want to whine about the do not call registry--blow me. I couldn't be happier with the Missouri registry to the point that I actually give Jeremiah Jay some credit for it. We get almost no calls except the phone company and I've put a stop to those.
This is as it should be--my phone, my choice. Atrios points out how this is actually a market based solution that steps back and defines property rights for phone use. As he also points out, one can then sell their rights to a bidder who wants to call them. I won't be and I can't imagine being bothered, but hey that is me.
We have gotten calls for some ne'er do well who passed off some bad checks though. It seems Telecheck hides itself under the name TRS Recovery Services and violates the law by harrassing us to find him despite us having no idea who he is. They threatened the wife with action while she was home alone and then threatened me with degrading my credit history if I didn't cooperate. Telecheck reps refused to identify themselves to me until I did a little checking with the Missouri Secretary of State and found out who they were. Calls to the Missouri Attorney General, the FTC, Telecheck's Legal Department and the Better Business Bureau have put a stop to those scumbags though.
Oh, and when you work for a company like Telecheck and I say you--I'm using you as a plural pronoun. Don't whine that 'you' didn't do anything.
archpundit 7/02/2003 9:49:37 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Open Comments- Illinois Senate 2nd Quarter FEC Reports
What's everyone hearing? Is Hynes low? What about the others?
archpundit 7/01/2003 11:54:39 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
6 1/2 Years
Fawell racks up 6 1/2 years in prison, but is it enough to make him crack?
Probably not,
He said he was disappointed former friends had become government witnesses but said they couldn't withstand the pressure from prosecutors. He said it was easy to make mistakes in politics.
"It's a pretty rough and tumble business -- always has been, always will be," Fawell said. "I wish I could go back and change some of the things I did. But do I consider myself a criminal? Absolutely not."
If he doesn't crack can they nail Ryan?
archpundit 7/01/2003 12:49:01 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Illinois Republican Cattle Call
1) Jack Ryan--has money and rumors are Rove is pushing him. Movie Star looks and fits well with the base voters of the Illinois Republican Party. A darling of the Illinois Leader. Where does he stand on O'Hare?
2) Steve Rauschenberger--well liked by most in the party and a direct connection to Hastert. An expert on budgetary issues and working with Grover Norquist's organization to make Illinois politics nasty. May make the primary nasty between Norquist and Social Conservatives.
3) Andrew McKenna--lots of ties to establishment and plenty of cash from the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce.
4) John Borling--resume alone makes him impressive, but still hasn't committed.
5) Bob Thomas--why so high? Big Jim is reportedly lining up his SC seat for a former ally meaning he'll work for Thomas in a campaign. Big Jim still gets things done, but Thomas would have to earn it.
6) John Cox--he announced. Others will overtake him when they announce. Just another way to waste his money, but it keeps political professionals employed.
7) Jim Durkin--has name recognition in the party and acceptable to conservatives--won't get in if Washington says not to.
8) Tom McCracken--strong DuPage base of support--low name recognition and ties to DuPage machine hit hard by indictments
9) Jim Oberweis--considered liberal on abortion by Social Conservatives. Fuggedaboutit
10) Ray Choudry--who?
11) Chirinjeev Kathuria--a bit of a gadfly. Maybe not a bit.
Great comments...
archpundit 7/01/2003 12:40:24 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Regional Superintendents Hang On
Unfortunately one of the more inefficient elements of the Illinois primary and secondary education system survived cuts and will remain in place--Blagojevich failed to eliminate the Regional Superintendents this year.
In most states the jobs such as building inspections and teacher certification are done by a statewide body. Illinois has kept them around as vestiges of the past when travel was difficult and the large number of districts required more local support. Of course, Illinois hasn't forced enough consolidation either.
Blagojevich's review of the state educational system may take a look at that however. Currently there are 900 districts in Illinois which is far more than there should be.
archpundit 7/01/2003 12:10:53 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Who Won't Be Considered a Second-Tier Candidate
The one who just raised $7 million in the quarter. To make matters worse for the other candidates, money always follows money.
Look for a Chris Lehane smear campaign to be launched against Dean by Kerry ohhhh, let's say in the morning. I only wonder if it can make the Note in time.
archpundit 7/01/2003 12:05:58 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Make Fun of Michael Savage Day
Ted Barlow reminds us it is Make Fun of Michael Savage . It appears the Savage one has decided to sue a bunch of small web sites for making fun of him. So PILE ON!
I'll come up with some snappy stuff later, but for now, let's just examine the Savage web site. Go ahead, I dare you. Click the link then come back.
That front page is just stunning, isn't it.
But even more stunning is the shot where he is feeling up wax 'Hollywood Idiots'. Dude needs some action.
More later, but I think it is really going to be hard to parody a parody.
archpundit 6/26/2003 10:48:30 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Rush-ing Denials
One of the curiousities of the race for the Democratic Nomination for the U.S. Senate race is the presence of Joyce Washington in the race. Washington has a strong healthcare management background, but no experience in elected office. While she has long been active in the community, her first run for office was the 2002 Lieutenant Governor's race that she lost to Pat Quinn. Not being able to self-finance and not having built a large base through prior campaigns puts her at a significant disadvantage and has raised many questions amongst political watchers curious about the move.
Today, Steve Neal reported what had been rumored for some time, that the Washington candidacy is being pushed by Bobbie Rush to payback Barack Obama who challenged him unsuccessfully in the 2000 primary for Rush's Congressional Seat. In doing so, Rush is actually helping Dan Hynes by splittling African-American votes between Washington and Obama.
Neal describes the breakdown of African-American votes in the past,
In a statewide Democratic primary, about 30 percent of the voters are African American. When the black community is united behind a single candidate, that person is inevitably a strong contender.
As Rush knows better than anyone, rival black candidacies splinter the vote. In the 1990 Democratic primary for the Supreme Court, black judges Cousins and Blanche M. Manning got just over half the vote. This split helped the late Mayor Michael A. Bilandic win the judicial slot with less than half of the vote. If Rush is determined to spoil Obama's chances, there is no better way to do it than with a second black candidate.
To make matters shadier, Neal also reports on Rush's ties to Thomas Hynes, Dan Hynes father,
Rush has a longtime relationship with the candidate's father, former Cook County Assessor Thomas C. Hynes, who is still the Democratic committeeman of the Far Southwest Side's 19th Ward. Back in 1992, the elder Hynes provided Rush with critical support in his upset Democratic primary victory over the late Congressman Charles A. Hayes.
Needless to say the above column raised a whole lot of eyebrows amongst African-American clergy in Chicago. And those raised eyebrows were followed closely by calls from Congressman Rush to deny Neal's report. Rush is saying that he contacted Neal and is demanding a retraction.
Sources indicate Rush is making the argument that the story was planted by the Machine regulars--Daley or Thomas Hynes--to deflect attention from questions concerning Washington's campaign and whether she is a stalking horse to Obama. By fingering Rush, Rush is claiming, they deflect attention from their efforts.
While it is impossible to determine the veracity of Rush's claims, the problem with the argument is this key graph from Neal,
Settling an old score with Obama isn't the only reason that Rush is promoting Washington's long-shot candidacy. According to knowledgeable sources, this is part of an elaborate scheme to covertly help state Comptroller Dan Hynes, the nominal front-runner in the Democratic senatorial field.
The argument Neal is making implicates both Hynes supporters and Rush and one would assume all involved in creating a stalking horse candidate would not want to be tied to the allegation. Admittedly, barring direct evidence of Washington being a stalking horse put in the race by Hynes supporters, such an allegation has little impact on Hynes or his supporters, but a huge impact in the African-American community where Rush would be viewed very poorly for helping a white candidate over a high quality African-American contender. Where the logic breaks down is why they'd be planting the story if they are trying to divert attention.
The interesting question one is left with is if Washington is a stalking horse candidate, does she realize it.
Posted at Political State Report as well.
archpundit 6/25/2003 10:42:48 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
McKenna Announces Tomorrow
Anyone seen a web site for him?
archpundit 6/25/2003 1:02:32 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Blogroll Additions
Three added to the Illinois Sidebar--check them out--two are Political State Report contributors.
And in that spirit, read about the two-headed JimRod Chicken.
archpundit 6/25/2003 12:50:25 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Steve Neal Connects the Washington Dots
As hinted about yesterday, the Washington campaign is a bit of an enigma in the race for the Democratic Nomination to the US Senate. Her background is weak,
Washington, 52, a hospital administrator, was the runner-up in last year's three-way primary for lieutenant governor. Former state Treasurer Pat Quinn defeated her by 108,136 votes. She carried Cook County over Quinn by 849 votes and got about a third of the statewide vote.
As the only African-American candidate in this contest, Washington had the support of Sen. Jones, U.S. Representatives Davis and Jackson, County Commissioner Jerry ''Iceman'' Butler and the Rev. Clay Evans, all of whom are backing Obama for the Senate.
Rush had nothing good to say about Washington when she was running for lieutenant governor. As a strategist for black gubernatorial candidate Roland W. Burris, Rush lamented that Washington's bid might undermine Burris. That wasn't the case.
But Bobbie Rush is backing her. Why? Because Barack Obama challenged him for the US House seat in 2000, though Rush crushed him.
Not only that, but,
Settling an old score with Obama isn't the only reason that Rush is promoting Washington's long-shot candidacy. According to knowledgeable sources, this is part of an elaborate scheme to covertly help state Comptroller Dan Hynes, the nominal front-runner in the Democratic senatorial field.
Rush has a longtime relationship with the candidate's father, former Cook County Assessor Thomas C. Hynes, who is still the Democratic committeeman of the Far Southwest Side's 19th Ward. Back in 1992, the elder Hynes provided Rush with critical support in his upset Democratic primary victory over the late Congressman Charles A. Hayes.
But Rush repaid this debt when he backed the younger Hynes for state comptroller in 1998. By using Washington to split the black vote, Rush is counting on the Hynes camp to stop Obama.
Whether Washington fully realizes the game being played or not is an interesting question, though my guess is that her ego overcomes the giant flashing warning lights.
What does having two African-Americans in the race do?
In a statewide Democratic primary, about 30 percent of the voters are African American. When the black community is united behind a single candidate, that person is inevitably a strong contender.
As Rush knows better than anyone, rival black candidacies splinter the vote. In the 1990 Democratic primary for the Supreme Court, black judges Cousins and Blanche M. Manning got just over half the vote. This split helped the late Mayor Michael A. Bilandic win the judicial slot with less than half of the vote. If Rush is determined to spoil Obama's chances, there is no better way to do it than with a second black candidate.
Obama is a serious candidate, Washington isn't. The shame of it is that Washington may not realize this.
Dan Hynes is one of my two least favorite kinds of candidates in general--he is the kid who gets the boost from the parents. The other I'm not thrilled with are millionaires who jump in with no experience. That being said, this campaign has some very able people who fit those descriptions and I'm not talking about John Simmons. Hynes should be tested in the primary by having to take on real candidates with no gimmicks. If he is as strong as the Machine is claiming to everyone who will listen, release him and let's see his stuff.
As a parallel, Lisa Madigan seemed incredibly ill-prepared to be AG until we got lucky and she turned out to be a natural against Birkett. We never would have known that in her race against Schmidt. But what if she was a dud--how would we have known? Hynes has only had to gimme primaries and two jokes of general campaign opponents. The good news is Lauzen is gearing up 2006 and well, one can't make up that kind of stupid.
Admittedly, the general election Republican may yet turn out to be a joke, but you don't bet the farm on that. And Hynes may be a natural, but I'd rather see that demonstrated instead of just having him annointed.
archpundit 6/25/2003 12:45:50 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Open Comments-Republican Nomination for US Senate
Let's analyze the Republican Candidates--drop your comments in comments or e-mail me.
-Jack Ryan
-Steve Rauschenberger
-John Cox
-Jim Oberweis
-Bob Thomas (IL Supreme Court Justice)
-Chirinjeev Kathuria
-Andrew McKenna Jr.
-Tom McCracken
-John Borling
-Ray Choudhry
-Jim Durkin
archpundit 6/24/2003 11:01:46 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
US Democratic Senate Cattle Call
1. Hynes--rumors are he is having a hard time raising cash--watch for the FEC reports--and that John Doar, political fixer, has been dispatched, but Hynes still has the name and the machine until someone proves differently.
2. Obama--He has the African-American machines behind him except Bobbie Rush and that is a good portion of votes in the primary. Riding high after a successful legislative session.
3. Hull--polisci 101--how to cobble together an effective coalition--aided by cash. He's been seen in the South Side churches trying to pick off votes from Obama--might be successful because Obama suffers from, well, being too integrated in his behavior. Picking off downstate, goo-goo lakeshore liberals, and lots of non activists with a name recognition assault for the next 9 months. His pain has a name--Hynes.
4. Pappas--hiding, but a natural campaigner with name recognition.
5. Chico--lot's of cash-another FEC report to watch, but being shut out in the Hispanic community. Makes it tough to win when another guy has more cash and several others have more machine.
6. Simmons--no base, no name, no machine, but $40 million goes a long way?
7. Washington--why is she running again? Obama? Maybe.
8. O'Shea--who? Only appearance is at a conference of conservatives---not exactly the way to Democratic hearts
archpundit 6/24/2003 10:55:35 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Taking on Hynes
Dan Hynes is considered the frontrunner for the Illinois Democratic Nomination to the US Senate, but that puts a giant target on his back.
As such expect a 'solid assault' on Hynes by the Hull campaign which after having the Daley pull out the rug from underneath Hull's feet, is under no illusions about this campaign. They are devising a strategy to keep the losing margins in Chicago and the suburbs low.
Add to this a bit of intrigue surrounding two candidates: John Simmons and Joyce Washington. Washington has never held significant office and so her candidacy is a bit of a mystery since she doesn't have the resources that Hull and Simmons have. One suggestion is that she is the Carol Moseley Braun of the race pulling votes from Obama to help Hynes out. Is this possible? Absolutely. But what would the pay-off be? One thing people forget is that ego is a hell of motive and pushing someone's buttons to run on the idea of making a dramatic challenge certainly affects one's clarity of thought. Washington may well want to believe she can win while being pushed by forces using her for not so honest reasons. Cold-hearted political consultants can all point to the weakness they see in even the most level-headed clients when their egos are stroked.
Simmons is the other question--is someone pushing him to get in or is he a stalking horse downstate? I'd have to say that if he is throwing $40 million in his campaign, he believes he can win. Now whether someone has convinced him to run is an open question. Again, ego can cloud many people's judgments.
The interesting note on Simmons is that Poshard has never heard of him. If I were to run a downstate based campaign in the Democratic Primary and wanted to gather up support Poshard is the second call I make. The first is to unindicted coconspirator Jerry Costello who probably controlls the largest single block of votes in Southern Illinois. The second is Poshard (the third is Paul Simon). Why Poshard doesn't know this guy is strange given Simmons should have made sure Poshard knew him.
That being said, such a move wouldn't be that strange by a political neophyte. Why the strong words of support by Costello for Simmons? Simmons bankrolls a lot of Democrats in Madison and St. Clair County so Costello is unlikely to do anything, but flatter him. Simmons' campaign has every sign of an authentic neophyte being encouraged for future access to his money. Given his ties are very thin, he'll have a very hard time making headway in labor heavy Southern Illinois.
archpundit 6/24/2003 10:45:30 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
2020 Democrats
2020 Democrats is asking young people across America to articulate "Visions" for our future - visions of the world they hope to see in the year 2020. 2020 Democrats will accept and post Vision submissions on the website: www.2020democrats.org
2020 Democrats was founded on the belief that, for the Democratic Party to be relevant, it must first articulate a compelling vision for the future of our country - and then stand for the policies that are most likely to turn that vision into a reality. And who better to define a vision for our future than the young people whose future is at stake?
From those who submit "Visions," 150 will be chosen to attend the 2020 Democrats kick-off event, a summer conference in Washington, DC entitled, "Your America: See It In 2020." Conference participants will begin to craft a consensus vision for our country's future and will then return to their local communities to facilitate a broader conversation among young people about the world they hope to see in 2020. Young people hoping to attend the conference should submit their Visions by July 4th, 2003.
archpundit 6/24/2003 10:11:24 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Blair Hull Announces Tomorrow
In Carbondale, Springfield and Chicago. Webcast available above for the announcement and the start of the commercials that are appearing downstate.
He hits Belleville on the 26th and I might have to take it in if I'm not working. He'll continue on to Bloomington---Ahem-he better be making the Lucca Grill stop, know what I mean out there? John Edwards just made a splash there a few days ago. And he should get the Ala Baldini.
archpundit 6/24/2003 10:08:00 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Bring it On Grover...
In a related posting to yesterday, one commenter brought up Grover Norquist and his efforts to organize conservatives in so many states.
Like most political svengali's Norquist is given a lot more credit than he deserves. Most of the movement would have occurred anyway, though not as fast. In fact, the best thing to credit him with is that he and his allies forced realignment faster in the south and west than did Democrats in the Northeast and Upper-midwest.
Rich Miller covers Norquist's efforts in Illinois and points out some of the leading followers.
So the question is can Grover bring the Illinois Republican Party into a hard hitting opposition party that takes no prisoners and eventually takes over the state government?
Look at the coalitions. Who is the strongest Republican statewide right now? Judy Baar Topinka and the reason why is that she appeals to moderate Republicans, swing voters and many Democrats. What happens if the Republican Party turns nasty and fights hard? They lose her in a primary and come out with a fire-breathing conservative who loses the general. Fire breathing conservatives are fine in fire breathing conservative states, which Illinois is not.
Getting rid of moderate Republicans won't work if the state isn't conservative. It might work for an election where one can control the agenda, but one can't control the agenda forever.
Of course, Illinois tried unified Republican control and didn't like it much in 1994. 1996 Madigan pulled the Dems back in control of the House and ever since, Democrats have made gains in state government. Part of this can be accounted for by scandals, but the Illinois Republican Party is moving to the right while the state is constant or slightly moving to the left. You don't win in a state like Illinois by subtracting the so-called RINOs.
But if Grover cares to try, I know a whole lot of Democrats who are happy to help him out.
That being said, they've decided to try and turn Blagojevich into the personification of their problems. Besides Blagojevich having the right loyalties on the North Side (not bad play-by-play there Guv), Blagojevich is showing a hell of a lot more political savvy than I gave him credit. Miller also points out the structural problem for conservatives
By focusing conservative ire on Blagojevich, the activists might finally have something to do besides organize circular firing squads. Outmaneuvering their fellow travelers in an endless game of "I'm the most important conservative in Illinois" seems to be their favorite pastime. Still, it remains to be seen whether the same people forming yet another "new" coalition ? even if it is affiliated with the right's most successful consensus-maker, Norquist ? will be able to move beyond their self-immolating habits.
Conservatives in Illinois argue that the party simply isn't conservative enough creating a pattern of one-upsmanship that pushes candidates farther and farther to the right. Hence, the Illinois Circular Firing Squad Team continues marching on--in circles.
archpundit 6/24/2003 9:45:30 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Movement Conservatives in Denial
The greatest part of the Illinois Circular Firing Squad Team's spat is that one side is right and the other one is far right. Rimshot please as I welcome myself back.
But seriously folks, the mantra of social conservatives goes something like, "If only the Republican Party would throw off the yolk of the horrible liberal, corrupt moderate Republicans the Illinois GOP would wipe the floor with the Democrats."
The only problem with that is that social conservatives are on the wrong side of just about every social issue in the State of Illinois. Don't believe me?
From the Trib's recent poll,
57 percent support a bill outlawing discrimination against gays and lesbians including 51 percent of downstaters and 46 percent in Southern Illinois. Overall 25 percent oppose such a law and in Southern Illinois that percentage was 30. Even in the most socially conservative portion of the state, a plurality supports such a law, and many are simply agnostic.
The whole argument that the great moral, but silent majority was against such horrors as equal treatment for human beings should have been thrown out the window when Normal approved an ordinance banning discrimination. For goodness sakes, the oxymoronically named Jesse Smart was thrown out of office for his homophopic rants on Oprah in the only slightly more progressive than Normal City of Bloomington. Many people may not be comfortable with homosexuality, but the current of tolerance and justice overcomes that discomfort.
The ERA has brought back Southern Illinois' perpetual nightmare, Phyllis Schlafly, to argue against the bugaboo of gender integrated restrooms and other horrors, but how does the state feel? That Phyllis is whacked--well we already knew that, but that her position on the ERA is whacked...
65 percent approve statewided with 17 percent having no opinion.
In Chicago the for and against is 72-16, Cook County 68-17, Collar Counties 61-23, and downstate 62-18. I'll be looking for Phyllis at the urinal near me soon.
And finally, gun control. 62 percent favor stronger restrictions on gun sales and 31 percent were against. Cook Suburbs 77-19 and downstate 54-37 with Southern Illinois only below 50 at 48-43. I have a different view on gun control--that the State of Illinois can't be any more effective without federal regulation, but the general sense in Illinois is for tighter restrictions.
The poll does show concern over expansion of gambling which is often a favorite issue of movement conservatives, but not solely their issue.
Illinois is a moderately liberal state. The moderate wing of the Illinois Republican Party gets that. Movement conservatives don't and that is just fine because they are putting on a hysterical show for the rest of us.
Economic issues used to dominate in Illinois and thus union and minority voters against business dominated the arguments with swing voters trying to balance the differences. Social conservatives were in both parties as those who remember the ERA defeat will attest, Democrats often were obstructing passage as much as Republicans. Illinois was then a true swing state. But now that the national parties have realigned over social issues and Illinois is a moderate to liberal state on social issues and trending Democratic unless the Illinois GOP wants to concentrate on moderate candidates. Given Movement Conservatives show little interest in compromising, they will quickly find themselves locked out of power.
archpundit 6/23/2003 5:20:29 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Mini-Hiatus
I'm simply travelling too much through the end of the week. Check out the blogroll and I'll be back next weekend.
archpundit 6/16/2003 11:41:06 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
When Is Luck Not Chance
The Skeptical Inquirer (content not on-line) ran an article about how most lucky situations are actually not chance, but people taking advantage of chance.
Rod Blagojevich can't be this lucky, so he must subscribe to this theory. I have been critical of his plan to sell bonds for pension liabilities and invest money at a higher rate than the current interest rate. That criticism still stands because the benefits fo the deal are being taken right off the bat instead of over the life of the deal.
The second criticism of the deal just fell apart. I, and many others, were concerned that the state might not get the interest rate or might not invest wisely. It is certainly possible that the state won't invest wisely, but not in the likely category, especially since the State of Illinois just got fantastic interest rates on the bonds. Rich Miller argues this is just the next example of how G-Rod surprises everyone,
I'm not a superstitious person, but I'm starting to believe that Gov. Rod Blagojevich's life has been blessed by a kindly leprechaun, a lucky star or an influential guardian angel. Take your pick.
He was elected to the Illinois House after a new legislative map gave state Rep. Bruce Farley (D-Chicago) the opportunity to be kicked upstairs to the Senate by Blagojevich's politically powerful father-in-law.
He moved up to Congress two years after the supposedly unbeatable Democrat Dan Rostenkowski was defeated by a no-name Republican in a fluke election.
He won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination against a field of candidates that simply couldn't or wouldn't compete on an "A" level.
He then faced a not exactly energetic Republican nominee, Jim Ryan, who shared the same last name with the disgraced GOP incumbent, George Ryan, in a year when the Republican Party was bitterly divided after a nasty primary and spiritually broken from a years-long corruption scandal.
And then, last week, word leaked that the office run by his most probable 2006 opponent, GOP state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, had been hit with a federal subpoena relating to alleged campaigning on state time.
You just can't get much luckier than he has.
This is not to imply that Blagojevich got where he is today solely on the basis of good fortune or his in-laws. Whatever you may think of him, you have to at least grudgingly admit that his successes during his first legislative session showed that his tenacity is impressive, his energy is almost boundless, his deliberate calculation might make Machiavelli blush and his charm is often disarming. Yes, he's been handed a slew of lucky breaks, but he has taken full advantage of almost all of them.
In general, he generates his own luck
You may remember a few months ago when the Republicans and many others, myself included, cast a skeptical, even hostile eye at the governor's plan to float $10 billion in long-term bonds, skim $2 billion off the top as "profit" and use the money to make scheduled pension payments, and then invest the rest at a hoped-for 8.5 percent to pay off the bonds. Too risky, the bond houses would hate it, the idea would hurt our credit rating, etc., etc., etc.
It's still early, but, so far, the governor's pension bond "scheme" has performed above even the governor's allegedly overly optimistic expectations.
The governor hoped to get a 6 percent rate on the bonds and figured he could probably sell only up to $6 billion right away. Instead, all $10 billion was gobbled up last week by hungry investors at an interest rate just a hair above 5 percent.
It is now conceivable, even probable, that the lower interest rate will allow the governor to skim off another several hundred million dollars and use that cash to pay off much of next fiscal year's scheduled pension payments ? thereby closing a huge upcoming budgetary hole. The wizards at the Office of Management and Budget are currently examining just that scenario.
Add that dough to at least $600 million from a recently approved federal bailout, plus the possibility that some of his other supposedly harebrained ideas might outperform expectations (sale of the Thompson Center, state takeover of a riverboat license, etc.), and if the economy continues to grow a little (which it usually does during a presidential election year), the next budget deficit might not be nearly as bad as some predict (earlier estimates ranged from $2 billion to $3 billion and beyond), which could allow him to once again pass a budget without raising taxes or expanding gaming.
I can't improve on the column's clincher,
But no matter how much his perpetual campaign style of governing might continue to irritate, I'm not going to make the same mistake that Washington, D.C., people consistently made with another similarly charmed politico, Bill Clinton.
I am through betting against this man. Call it luck, call it skill, call it whatever you want. The percentages just aren't there.
If the 2008/2012 rumors are true for G-Rod, the Governor just smiled with that comparison.
archpundit 6/12/2003 1:34:57 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Rich Miller Notes the Illinois Circular Firing Squad is back
Just in case anyone was wondering whether the Illinois Republican Party had gotten its act together, never fear, the Party has circled up and is ready fire aim,
THERE THEY GO AGAIN (excerpt) Last year, conservative Republicans seized on the opportunity to install one of their own as state party chairman when the incumbent chairman, Lee Daniels, was hobbled by a major corruption scandal and when the party's gubernatorial candidate was too weak to convince the conservatives to allow him to appoint a replacement who was more acceptable to the dominant moderates.
Well, the Right is at it again. Parts of it, anyway. Failed congressional candidate John Cox has called on current Republican Party Chairperson Judy Baar Topinka to step aside while the federal investigation of her state treasurer's office is completed. Failed gubernatorial candidate Patrick O'Malley chimed in that the party needs to clean its act up.
In the past, the party post has mostly been a fundraising job, but a conservative element wants to use the position to promote its ideology and create more opportunities for conservative candidates in Illinois. Many hard right activists were disappointed with Topinka's elevation to the party job. Topinka strongly favors gay rights and is mostly pro-choice. So those conservatives want to replace her with someone more to their liking.
It's a sound idea, if you take their point of view. But Illinois trends toward more moderate, even liberal Republicanism, and that predominant faction will fight to the death to keep the Right out of the potentially high-profile chairman's position. A hard rightward turn is viewed as disastrous, particularly in the wake of last year's overwhelmingly Democratic election results. . . .
Jeff Trigg points us to a Trib article where David Keene points out the obvious about the Illinois Republican Party
"There really is no Republican Party in Illinois," Keene said. "It's all collapsed around [former Gov.] George Ryan."
Jeff Trigg also points out the problem with blind party loyalty. I agree and I posted on Rita being a scum bag back in the day . I believe Ross at the Bloviator joined me, but I don't have a permalink
archpundit 6/12/2003 1:08:48 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Quinn Eyeing the Senate Race
Up at Political State Report
Quinn has been playing a game of being too cute by half and just got caught.
Governor Blagojevich and his people are furious at the Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn. Sunday, Chicago Sun-Times columnist Michael Sneed reported a rumor that Quinn was eyeing the US Senate race,
Is Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn, who is acting very gubernatorial, eyeing a bid for the U.S. Senate?
Rumors about who has been interested in joining the race have been fast and furious. Former Sourthern Illinois Congressman and 1998 Gubernatorial Candidate Glenn Poshard was mentioned by Steve Neal and then had to deny the rumors. Mike Kelleher, 2002 Lt. Governor Candidate and 15 CD Candidate had to deny rumors he was interested in the race.
So a rumor is just a rumor and the Governor wouldn't have been too concerned until some campaign research has made its way to the Governor's people showing Quinn would jump to the front of the pack if he got in the race with strategies and numbers in the research.
Quinn is reportedly denying any ties or knowledge of the research and claiming to Blagojevich's people that he has no intention of running. This is a particularly sticky situation for Quinn since the Governor received an immense amount of help from Blair Hull during the 2002 Gubernatorial race. The Governor's people are said to be very concerned about the effect of a Quinn candidacy on Hull's campaign.
In the Dance with the One that Brung You category, a Quinn race would hit Hull the hardest according to reports of what is in the campaign research. Hull provided Quinn nearly $100,000 for the Lt. Governor's race in 2002. That's just bad manners on Quinn's part.
Quinn has reportedly called Hull to deny the rumors after the column broke.
Below the surface of the story are ties to another rumor in the Senate race that was officially put to rest on Political State Report. Mike Kelleher was being touted as a potential candidate in the Senate race by a former Quinn campaign worker from the 2002 Lt. Governor Democratic Primary campaign. While having no basis in fact the rumor had gotten Kelleher's name on Politics 1 as a candidate despite Kelleher having no interest in the race and started the state rumor mill in action. The wonders of the internet.
Why would such a rumor benefit Quinn? Quinn's base is in the City of Chicago and the inner-ring suburbs. Adding Kelleher to the potentials mix would make many opinion leaders wary to endorse early and further split the downstate vote. The more the vote could be divided, the better the chances for Quinn.
Quinn's greatest advantage was to run a stealth candidacy where he announced at the last minute. By being active in Democratic politics over the last 25 years Quinn has built up a strong advantage in name recognition. By keeping a campaign below the radar of most in the state, Quinn would be able avoid drawing attacks from others in a crowded field and hopefully ride his name recognition to a plurality.
Quinn has a poor reputation amongst party regulars for several reasons. On the positive side of why people do not like him he is a strong crusader for consumer rights often bucking party leadership on such issues as the SBC rate hike. His activism on such issues dates back many years and has earned him the dislike of those in the Party who would like to be as cozy as they can with business.
On the negative side he is an opportunistic pain in the butt with few equals. A recent example is that during the 2002 election cycle he is reported to have petitions circulating for five different elected positions including Treasurer, the 5th Congressional District eventually won by Rahm Emmanuel, and the office he eventually won, Lt. Governor. While ambition and opportunism are often separated by a fine line in politics, Quinn has long been running for the end zone of opportunism.
archpundit 6/12/2003 12:44:56 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Be Back Wednesday
Today, depending on what state you are in--I'm travelling, tired, and drinking a lot, why? Ask Tom Spencer last week. Of course, 1200 exams in a weeks is wimps work. Heh. Indeed. That's about right.
I'm punch drunk and tired, but an important story is below the Illinois Democratic Nomination Senate Race surface and I promise to get to it tomorrow.
archpundit 6/11/2003 12:39:09 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
RTA Approves the STAR Line
Metra will run a line from O'Hare west to Elgin and then south to Joliet.
While the South Suburbs need some sort of access to such a line, this line concentrates on the areas with the most godawful traffic known to mankind outside of Southern California or Manhattan. Having driven Route 59 for years, that area is just a friggen nightmare--train access won't solve that problem, but it should alleviate some traffic--especially to O'Hare.
archpundit 6/05/2003 6:16:09 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Not That I Care About Martha Stewart
but claiming she was manipulating her stock by denying she engaged in insider trading...
What the hell is that?
Is this going to lead to another charge?
On Thursday, the home-style guru made an appeal to public opinion, taking out a full-page ad in USA Today and launching a Web site to pronounce herself innocent.
Virginia Postrel has more on the problems with the indictment.
She also makes a good point about Naomi Wolf.
Ah hell, she is on fire, just go read her today. While not defending Raines she is capturing the right tone about his critics.
archpundit 6/05/2003 6:09:44 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
McKenna Profile
Is up at Political State Report
Check out the two other Illinois stories just below it as well.
archpundit 6/05/2003 6:02:43 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Don't tell the SLPS Board about this
A rather fascinating story out of Fairview Heights about the importance of seating arrangements. I have to admit it is a nice change of pace from the usual St. Clair County Hijinks. The beginning reminds me of Peter Gabriel's Games Without Frontiers
FAIRVIEW HEIGHTS -- Lydia won't sit next to Pat. Pat won't move. And Harvey doesn't want to talk about it.
What started with one city alderman's desire to change seats last month evolved into a public spat that has been the talk of the City Council as much as any item on its agenda.
"You read things about this in other areas and think it doesn't happen, but apparently it does," said Ward 5 Alderman Bonnie Crosley, a City Council newcomer. "I think that there are a lot more pressing issues to address."
Ward 3 Alderman Pat Baeske made the seat-switch to a vacated spot next to fellow Ward 3 Alderman Lydia Cruez before the City Council meeting on May 6.
"It should not be a big deal," Baeske said. "I could never see when someone gave a presentation. After four years, I decided I wanted another seat."
The action provoked City Clerk Harvey Noubarian to try to switch the seats back -- a move that resulted in a public debate with Baeske over the issue before the meeting started. The exchange caught the attention of the public in attendance.
"Some business developers and chamber members were sitting in the public area laughing at these proceedings," said Charles Kassly, who attended the meeting and wrote to Mayor Gail Mitchell about it. "The council meeting that followed was tense and strained at best."
Cruez, who has sat in the same seat for 22 years, moved to the other side of the room during the seating arrangement drama. "It was not a big deal to me," Cruez said. "I moved because I don't think two aldermen from the same ward should sit side-by-side."
The confusion continued May 19 when no name placards were present and again on Tuesday when all the placards were set out in one place, allowing aldermen to place them where they wanted. Baeske returned to the seat she took last month.
When asked about the city's rules on seating arrangements, Noubarian said, "There is no rule." He declined further comment about the affair.
"I just think it blew out of proportion and I don't think there's any controversy anymore," Ward 1 Alderman Gil Klein said. "I think it's going to blow over and there's a lot more bigger issues that we need to discuss."
archpundit 6/05/2003 12:59:17 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Topinka Subpeona Verified
The Trib reports Jeff Trigg's scoop from yesterday that Judy Baar Topinka is being investigated for having staff do political work.
This leaves the question to be who hasn't been subpeonaed and the answer would by Hynes, Lisa Madigan, Blagojevich and White with only White and Hynes having been in office long enough. If someone isn't doing political work in the Secretary of State's office, that would be a miracle and the first time since the creation of the office. While I won't go out on a limb on Hynes, my understanding is that he is relatively careful about such things because he is ambitious. I'd be shocked to not see a subpeona for White by the time this is all over. The only office that isn't suspect is Jim Ryan's AG office before Madigan took over. He may not have been very aggressive in taking on corruption, but I've never heard of issues out of that office.
The particular investigation doesn't look good for Topinka because there is a whistle blower,
In an interview Wednesday, Santos said she responded to her subpoena by supplying a two-page "testimonial affidavit" to federal authorities she prepared in November. It detailed instances when Santos alleged she and others in the treasurer's office were pressured by supervisors on state time to do work for Topinka's successful 2002 re-election effort.
Santos said she witnessed treasurer's office employees during work hours setting up fundraiser events for Topinka, as well as doing advance work for political events and holding strategy meetings in the treasurer's 4th-floor offices at the Thompson Center in the Loop.
"I just thought it was so reckless and I was told everybody does it," Santos said.
The accusations mirror claims made by former state Rep. Tom Dart, Topinka's Democratic opponent last fall, who during the campaign alleged that employees of the treasurer's office were campaigning for her while they were supposed to be working for the state.
Of course, the story just underscores the point that the political culture is one that accepts illegal activity as normal. After having several whistleblowers for Lee Daniels the GOP hasn't pressured him to resign his seat which is remarkable.
archpundit 6/05/2003 11:05:32 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Chick Finishes the Bible Tract Series
Yo Scoobie! You've been falling down on Chick patrol...
Number 25: Here He Comes is posted. What is the final episode? Unabashed Catholic Bashing! Woooohoooooo...you have the feeling Chick's type were burning the crosses when Al Smith campaigned in the South don't you?
archpundit 6/05/2003 12:01:55 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Howard Dean on Charlie Rose
Dean's campaign has a link to a Quicktime version of Dean's interview with Rose. As with all Charlie Rose interviews it was interesting and dealt with issues in far more detail than most venues.
What continues to impress me about Dean is that he knows why he is running and clearly explains it. Beyond that he clearly knows who he is which is a fiscal moderate and social liberal. After spending the early 1990s beating my head on the wall talking to Iowa political activists about the importance of fiscal discipline, I couldn't think of a better standard bearer.
Is that an endorsement--well pretty damn close. No candidate is perfect, but after my previous disasters of Kerrey and Bradley, I'm finally find a fighter who isn't going to sit back for the Gore/Clinton hardball that John Kerry seems to be adopting.
archpundit 6/04/2003 11:56:54 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
A Challenger in IL 15
I received this announcement after the fact, but thought I'd pass it along. Gill will be vying for the nomination to take on Tim Johnson in the 15th--a conservative district that runs from McLean County all the way south on the eastern portion of the state. It'll be a tough race, but Johnson has vulnerabilities that are separate from ideology.
The Friends of David Gill are pleased to announce that David Gill, M.D. will formally declare his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for Illinois' 15th District U.S. Congressional seat on May 21, 2003.
Dr. Gill, a 43 year old Emergency Medicine physician living and working in Clinton, has served as a Democratic precinct committeeman in DeWitt County for the past several years. In addition to his work as Medical Director of the Emergency Department at John Warner Hospital, he also sits on that hospital's Board of Directors. He has been married to his wife, Polly, for 16 years; they have three children.
Dr. Gill has long been an advocate of a single-payer national health care system; the U.S. remains the only developed nation in the world without universal health care. Foremost among his many goals, Dr. Gill would like to work toward enactment of such a system, for the benefit of all the residents of the 15th District.
For more information, or to assist with what promises to be an exciting grassroots campaign, call 217/937-0111, e-mail dgill@mchsi.com, or go to the campaign Web site: davidgillforcongress (under construction--available in late May).
archpundit 6/04/2003 11:50:08 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Chicago Test Scores: Much Adieu about Nothing
The Trib argues that the mild decreases in test scores for the Chicago Public Schools is nothing to get in a tizzy about.
Even in the era of higher accountability, there's no need to panic over the slightly surprising dip in reading scores among Chicago public school children.
Not yet, at least.
Comparing one year to the previous doesn't yield all that much wisdom. It's the longer term trend lines that count. If scores continue to drop next year and the year after, then it's time for a serious talk.
Here's the more useful perspective:
The latest scores from the Iowa Test of Basic Skills show that 41 percent of elementary students scored at or above the national norm in reading comprehension. Compare that to five years ago, when only 36.9 percent of 3rd through 8th graders did as well. And compare that to a decade ago, when far fewer students met national norms in reading.
Any testing expert knows that plateaus in standardized test scores are typical. Early gains often follow serious reform efforts, with the most significant jumps made by the lowest-performing students.
Simply placing more importance on the test itself has a psychological effect on students to take it more seriously, and therefore, to perform better on it. Teachers also start adjusting their lesson plans to make sure they cover material they know will appear on the test. Those gains tend to level off, however, after a few years.
That phenomenon continued with the latest scores released Monday by Chicago Public Schools Chief Arne Duncan. The more than 10 percentage point drop in children scoring in the lowest-achieving quartile in both reading and math is significant and heartening. So is the more modest historic increase in those achieving at the top quartile.
Test scores can, in the aggregate, go up or down significantly in any given year without being representative of individual results. It is one of the ugly truths of testing that many don't fully grasp. Tests are reasonable approximations, but any given test should not be focused on too much. The trend line over time is still excellent for Chicago. If it were to continue there would be a problem, but one-year's results aren't that important.
The real problem may start when LNCB starts hitting districts for small yearly differences.
archpundit 6/04/2003 11:37:35 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Where Democrats can be Democrats
Nathan Newman (via Matt Yglesias cites the accomplishments of the Illinois Lege under unified Democratic control with a Democratic Governor.
# Raising the minimum wage to $6.50 per hour by Jan 1, 2005.
# Investing in 195,000 jobs through funding expansion of O'Hare airport.
# Passing the Equal Pay Act against disparities of pay on basis of gender.
# Right to 12 weeks of unpaid leave for victims of sexual or domestic violence.
# State Lawsuit Immunity Act- this legislation waives Illinois' 11th Amendment immunity to federal anti-discrimination laws, essentially nullifying recent "states rights" Supreme Court decisions in Illinois. This gives state workers rights to sue under the Age Discrimination in Employment Act, the Family and Medical Leave Act, the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990, Title VII of the Civil Rights Act, and the Fair Labor Standards Act.
# New law that permits public employees to form unions based on card-check recognition, meaning when a majority of workers signs cards, the union automatically comes into existence.
# Amended Illinois Human Rights Act to recognize a civil rights violation for employers adopting or implementing so-called "English-only" work rules.
# Illinois Prohibition of Goods from Forced Labor Act- state procurement contracts cannot use foreign-made goods produced by forced, convict, or indentured labor.
# Amendment to the Employment of Strikebreakers Act and the Day and Temporary Services Act- prevents employers from contracting with day and temporary labor service firms to replace workers during a strike or a lockout. Bill bars labor service agencies from sending workers to job sites where a strike, lockout or other labor problem exists.
# Illinois Whistleblower Act- bars employers from creating rules or policies preventing employees from disclosing violations of law to state or federal law enforcement agencies.
Most of these are unequivocally good if you are a Democrat and don't really raise the ire of many. But as with most achievement posts it leaves out some of the ugly.
1) SBC! This should be count for about five bad things. Instead of having the ICC look at the issue, the Lege and the Governor caved.
2) one-time gimmicks to balance the budget. While not as bad as I expected, it is still problematic. Overall the budget was an improvement over recent years, but it still relies on too many gimmicks. Pate and G-Ry can't be blamed anymore.
3) Absolutely no movement on school consolidation or even the decreasing the costs of Regional Superintendents.
4) Subsidies continue for horse tracks and ADM
5) The appointment of another tollway authority Board Member with shady dealings.
6) an ethics bill with no teeth
That being said other good things include,
1) Lisa Madigan taking on Rosemont and Don Stephens over the Emerald Casino license. Rosemont wants a bail out for the deal, she says no way.
2) movement on civil rights regardless of sexual orientation
Overall, not a bad session. While pork still got through, it wasn't as much as I expected. The budget isn't entirely rational, but it is improved. The Democrats didn't go crazy and go overboard--with no money there was only so much that could be done.
I believe that two strong competing parties provide the best overall outcomes. However, the biggest development in state politics is the movement of the Republican Party rightward. As they do so they are less competitive and barring major scandals, Democrats face less pressure to check themselves.
archpundit 6/04/2003 11:21:06 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
New Blog and Rumors for Topinka
I'll be adding three new blogs to the blogroll that are Illinois-centric. The first is Jeff Trigg, the Exec Director of the Illinois Libertarian Party. The blog is his personal one to make it clear. I recommend you take a look around--he has some great stories and a very good understanding of Illinois politics. And truth be told, Illinois Libertarians have a great sense of humor.
He is reporting that Judy Baar Topinka, head of the Illinois Republican Party and State Treasurer, is being investigated by a federal grand jury.
Let me also recommend his post on the Drug Czar getting the power to spend tax money defeating drug decriminalization/legalization referendums.
archpundit 6/04/2003 10:46:17 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Dog Bites Man:Payday Lenders Skirt Rules
In one of the least surprising elements it turns out that payday loan companies are skirting recent regulations in Illinois by increasing the length of loans by one day,
Illinois regulations aimed at reining in the fast-growing but controversial business of payday lending have proven ?virtually irrelevant? as the lenders find ways to skirt the rules, a draft study by state financial regulators says.
The preliminary report by the Illinois Department of Financial Institutions (DFI) shows that the state?s more than 800 licensed payday-loan locations are avoiding state-imposed limits on how much they can loan to an individual and how many times they can refinance a loan.
The rules apply to loans with terms of 30 days or less; lenders are dodging the restrictions by writing loans of 31 days, the report says. Before the rules were instituted, the standard payday loan?designed to tide over strapped borrowers until their next paycheck?came due in 14 days.
The regulations, issued in 2001 by the DFI over industry objections, were hailed at the time as the first substantial oversight of Illinois? payday lenders. They barred lenders from ?rolling over,? or refinancing, a loan more than twice and required that at least 20% of the outstanding principal balance be repaid when a loan is refinanced.
But today, the industry operates nearly as freely in Illinois as it did before the rules, the DFI report indicates.
?They were dead on arrival once they were promulgated because of what the industry did in reaction,? says Alan Alop, deputy director at the Legal Assistance Foundation of Metropolitan Chicago, which gives free legal advice to indigent Cook County residents. ?I?ve never seen a payday loan since those rules were issued that fell within the purview of the rules.?
archpundit 6/04/2003 10:33:08 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Good Sports News
The Bears are locking up Brian Urlacher for his career.
I don't talk about first place Chicago baseball teams that are not the Sox when they are in 1st Place. Ever. It is bad karma and I'm extremely superstitious.
archpundit 6/04/2003 2:08:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Later, but...
Check out Ted Barlow who is back...
New postings tonight or tomorrow morning.
archpundit 6/04/2003 11:04:01 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
And one More
Does anyone know if Success-N-Life by Bob Tilton plays in St. Louis? It looks like it was pulled from BET--meaning the only entertaining show is gone.
archpundit 6/02/2003 7:18:01 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
It's One of those Days
Jim Bakker is back!
When Bakker told CNN interviewer Larry King shortly after his release in 1994 -- the original sentence having been reduced -- that he would not do television again, "I meant what I said," Bakker said. "When you put your hand in a fire and get burned, the body reacts to that, and it remembers that. What I had been through had been so painful that I could not imagine doing it again."
He added: "For years I set about to do a number of other things, but I could not get away from what I feel God called me to do, anointed me to do, and that's Christian television."
"The New Jim Bakker Show" has been made possible largely due to one benefactor whose marriage was healed at Heritage USA -- Bakker's former Christian resort -- years ago. Dee and Jerry Crawford own the studio-café, the small hotel across the street and the home where the Bakkers live.
But there are still financial struggles. "I had hoped I could do this without raising money on the air, but airtime is so expensive," Bakker said. "Many stations gave us a few months for free or at a reduced rate to get us started, but now we have to generate the money needed to keep us on the air."
For former PTL producer Gene Bailey, a media consultant for the new show, "it's like going through a time warp. Everything that was good about the old 'PTL Club' is back -- without the hype and the glitz."
I'm just unsure what the good was besides the hyperbolic hype and glitz.
archpundit 6/02/2003 7:12:44 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Speaking of the Religious Right
CalPundit already got a sneak peek of this week's Kevin McCullough column.
McCullough argues that conservatives are too accepting of homosexuals and seems to pay an awful lot of attention to gay people. In Kevin's comments a couple shots are taken at McCullough's knowledge that normally I would find distasteful. First, there is nothing wrong with being gay so if McCullough was gay, that really is more of an embarrassment to gay men. On another level it sounds childish, sort of like if a columnist made fun of Steve Neal being a drunk.
archpundit 6/02/2003 7:05:59 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Open Thread--Senate Cattle Call Comments
With all of the movement in the Senate Race, the Cattle Call fell behind. So leave comments for the weekly (I swear) cattle call--who is up, who is down in both parties.
archpundit 6/02/2003 6:02:05 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Where is Captain Stubbing?
In a bad TBN based movie
Also with Paul Rodriguez and Barney Miller!
archpundit 6/02/2003 5:54:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Torture Lawsuit
Madison Hobley is suing the City of Chicago, six police detectives, and former Police Commander John Burge for torture including "beating Hobley and placing a plastic bag over his head to cut off his air supply in an unsuccessful effort to get him to confess."
archpundit 5/30/2003 2:39:57 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Mere coercion does not violate the text of the self-incriminatio
Steve Chapman points out the absolute idiocy of the most recent US Supreme Court concerning self-incrimination
Two police officers stopped and frisked Martinez, a farm worker, while looking for drug activity. They found a knife in his waistband, a struggle ensued, and one of the officers shot him five times. One bullet tore into his face, permanently blinding him. One shattered his spine, paralyzing his legs for life. Three hit him in the leg.
After being placed under arrest, he was rushed by ambulance to an emergency room. But his wounds were just the start of his ordeal. Yet another officer, Sgt. Ben Chavez, went along to the hospital and proceeded to pelt Martinez with questions about the incident, even as doctors and nurses labored furiously to keep him alive. Several times they asked the cop to leave the room, but each time, he came back, turned on his tape recorder and resumed his interrogation.
Bleeding from multiple wounds, choking, unable to move, occasionally losing consciousness, in excruciating pain and afraid he was dying, the patient twice told Chavez he didn't want to talk--even though the officer hadn't bothered to inform him of his Miranda rights, and even though he feared he might be denied treatment for refusing. But not until 45 minutes later, when the medical team wheeled Martinez out to undergo a CAT scan, did Chavez finally conclude his questioning.
You would assume this sort of mistreatment, verging on deliberate torture, would be a flagrant violation of Martinez's constitutional rights. But we learned in a decision issued Monday that the Supreme Court doesn't see it quite that way. "Martinez's allegations fail to state a violation of his constitutional rights," wrote Justice Clarence Thomas, including his 5th Amendment right against forced testimony.
archpundit 5/30/2003 2:34:09 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Ronnie White is Chomping at the Bit
Forget Kelvin Simmons, Ronnie White wants a crack at Kit Bond. Rumors are starting to bubble up that White would love a shot at Kit Bond in the US Senate race and he recently told one person that he is chomping at the bit for the shot if the Democratic Party will only ask.
What the hell is taking so long--ask dammit.
White is at the center of a controversy during the Clinton administration concerning judicial nominations. Clinton nominated him to the Federal Bench, but John Ashcroft claimed White was soft on crime, a suggestion that is problematic given White's record is similar to judges Ashcroft appointed on criminal matters. Ashcroft led a successful effort to defeat White.
During the 1998 Missouri Senate election, Kit Bond made overtures to many African-American leaders who were upset with Attorney General Jay Nixon's attempts to end the desegregation settlement. Bond received the support of several prominent African Americans including Dr. Leslie Bond and Dr. Donald Suggs, publisher of the influential black weekly, The Saint Louis American. Part of the courting process by Bond was an assurance that Ronnie White would receive consideration. African-American supporters insist Bond told them he would vote for him, Bond and allies have suggested that White would get a fair shake, but not necessarily his vote. Whomever is technically correct, Bond miscalculated and angered the African-American community by voting against White, ensuring the nomination would be defeated.
Anger over Ronnie White helped push African-American turnout in St. Louis City during the 2000 election and certainly helped defeat John Ashcroft.
Running White against Bond would certainly improve black turnout in 2004. Many 1998 supporters are still sore over 2004 including Donald Suggs. In fact, the wound is especially deep for him because staff members warned him Bond might do exactly what he did.
While White would face an uphill battle defeating a long term incumbent, White might just enjoy the race. Bond would be a favorite, but as he gets older, a spirited race could be hard on him.
UPDATE: Of course, Deb Peterson reported this already in today's column
archpundit 5/30/2003 1:48:19 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Updates to Mike Kelleher Story
I added a couple updates to the Mike Kelleher post.
archpundit 5/30/2003 10:22:08 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Blagojevich Isn't Biting on More Member Initiatives
According to Rich Miller at the Capitol Fax the Guv isn't budging on pork,
Pork - One of the biggest budgetary sticking points still remaining is a fight over new money for member initiatives (pork). The legislative leaders want the authority to spend about $200 million on projects if the money becomes available. The governor has refused to budge so far.
And the St. Clair County connection comes in with a reference to Jerry Costello's wife in the Regional Superintendents budget,
Regional Superintendents - The governor was asked during the Senate Democratic caucus meeting yesterday whether he would veto any of the budget after the General Assembly left town. The guv reportedly downplayed that possibility, but members said he did specifically mention that he was not happy that the Legislature had restored funding for regional superintendents of schools.
The comment surprised members, who thought the guv had backed off his plan to zero-fund the regional supers, many of whom have a lot of clout. One high-level employee in the St. Clair County Regional Superintendent's office is married to Congressman Jerry Costello, and that alone was believed to have been enough to make the guv step off.
archpundit 5/30/2003 1:02:39 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
A Little Late, but Interesting
I haven't followed this well, but Diane Komisky e-mailed me the following a few days ago. I'll let you follow up on it.
The Illinois House said Friday Illinois taxpayers want to spend $2 million to open build two new prisons, but they don't have the money to open one that was complete and ready to open more than a year ago. The empty prison is in Thomson, Carroll County, upstate Illinois (125 miles west of Chicago).
The House made the statement May 16 in a vote on House Bill 1733. An enraged Carroll County Board Chairman wrote the Governor and demanded the deed to the $140 million prison rather than allow it to continue to deteriorate. The state has been paying people to flush toilets and repair damages caused by allowing the 1800 cell prison to sit empty. For more, see www.prairie-advocate-news.com or phone 815-493-2560.
To show that the people of upstate Illinois are as sophisticated as people
on the other end of North Avenue, Chicago, they are donning tuxes and
evening gowns tomorrow and making a "formal" statement to the governor from 3-7 p.m. At the Watermelon CafE9, a restaurant immediately east of the prison.
archpundit 5/30/2003 12:46:01 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Blogroll Updates
Disarranging Mine an Illinois Blog
Reason of Voice Good stuff
Project for a New Century of Freedom Good stuff and great coverage of the FCC currently.
Billmon, but especially check out this post on WMDs. I'm starting to feel stupid.
Untelevised
ReachM High Cowboy Network Noose
archpundit 5/30/2003 12:42:00 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Is Blair Hull the new Arnold Maremont?
Not really.
But you ask, who the hell is Arnold Maremont?
Thanks for asking. Maremont was a Chicago industrialist who, according to Mike Royko, had the dream to be a U.S. Senator. The elder Daley had a view of the proper role of millionaires in the party according to Royko in Boss
Daley does not dislike millionaires. He lets them contribue to the party, sever on advisory boards, take on time-consuming appointments, and help elect Machine Democrats to office.
Maremeont had done it all. He contributed money, worked in Governor Kerner's campaign, led a campaign to pass $150 million bond issue that revitalized the state's mental health program, and pitched in on numerous liberal causes and mental health and welfare programs.
Royko describes how Maremont approached Daley about seeking the Democratic nomination,
...in early 1961 he went to Daley's office and told him that he'd like to run against Sen. Everett Dirksen. He made it clear that he wanted to do it properly and not jump into the primary as a maverick. The Party's blessing was what he was after.
Daley showed interest, but said he had certain reservations: mainly he wasn't sure if downstate county chairman would support a Jew. He suggested that Maremont tour the state, talk to the county chairman, and indicated strongly that if Maremont made a good showing, he'd be Daley's man.
Maremont pushed aside his business and civic work and spent most of the early summer barnstorming through Illinois. A spunky, brash man, he'd wlak into a bar in a tiny Sourthern Illinois town--grits and gravy countr--and announce: "My name's Arnold Maremont. I want to run for the Senate and I'm a Jew." People seemed to like him, as he wolfed down chicken and peas dinners at the county meetings, charming little old ladies and picking up support from the chairmen.
All the while, he sent back regular reports to Daley: they will go for a Jew! Elated, he headed back to Chicago, ready to give Daley his final report and the good news. He got back in town just in time to pick up that day's papers adn read that Daley had, indeed, decided to slate a Jewish Senatorial Candidate: Cong. Sidney Yates, a party regular.
That ended Maremont's political ambitions. Furious, he was convinced that Daley had merely used him to conduct a free one-man survey of downstate Illinois. he wouldn't have even tried had he ever heard Daley explain why he is so dedicated to a party man: "The party permits ordinary people to get ahead. Without the party, I couldn't be mayor. The rich guys can get elected on their money, but somebody like me, an ordinary person, needs the party. Without the party, only the rich would be elected to office."
On the surface one can quibble about the comparison of Hull to Maremont, but it gets at the basic question of is (or was) Daley using Hull for his money while really pushing other candidates? Blair Hull is the multi-millionaire owner of Hull Trading Company, a very successful trading company in Chicago. A campaign biography describes his past experiences as a union laborer and as a soldier. Beyond that he has been a strong supporter of the Democratic Party and various issues including the abortion rights. During the 2002 campaign, he provided significant support to Rod Blagojevich's campaign including $75,000 of in-kind donations to fly Blagojevich around the state.
For the past few months, the background buzz is that Hull is Daley's guy. With a wink and a nod people have insinuated that Hull had Daley in their corner. I've always been suspicious of this arrangment because Illinois politicians are never in someone's corner if they do not say so, and even then, they are only in one's corner half of the time. We can witness the knife still sticking out the back of Glenn Poshard and the ones on the ground that were aimed at Paul Vallas as he fled the state for better pastures. On the Republican side, moderates were more than happy to hang conservatives out to dry.
But more than that history, was the above story from Royko about the elder Daley's view of money men in the Democratic Party. Maremont was convinced he was going to be Daley's guy, all the while Daley was using him. But why did Daley need Hull? Money--and lots of it to ensure Daley had a friendly in the Governor's office to ensure O'Hare was expanded and perhaps a land based casino was allowed in Chicago (or maybe not). The Democrats needed a sugar daddy to finance a strong Democratic showing in 2002 and Hull was willing to open the checkbook. He flew Blagojevich around the state during the campaign and contributed generously to candidates all the while Hull was at least allowing the rumor to continue that he was Daley's guy in 2004.
And now is the time that Daley pulls the rug out from underneath him. While Daley is never known for being direct--well at least in anyway a mere mortal can understand (ed.---do you want me to take my pants down?) the message has become clear that Hull is not his guy according to people familiar with the campaign. Being Hizzoner isn't what it used to be however, and Hull is in a fairly good position to still be competitive.
The bad news for Hull is that he did not seem to sense the game being played and that should probably be considered a bit naive, but understandable. From all accounts Hull is a honest guy who believes in his positions and if the worst thing to be said about him is that he is a bit naive about Illinois politics, that is hardly a disqualifying characteristic.
The not so good news is that John Simmons, a Metro-East Trial lawyer specializing in asbestos litigation is getting in the race and promising to spend $40 million to get elected, just as Hull has. Barack Obama's campaign sent out a note this week quoting Rich Miller of the Capitol Fax, "'Barack Obama may benefit the most'" from a Simmons bid, which would split support among the candidates in populous Madison County -Simmons' home." The full effect of Simmons entry and the fragmented field is hard to determine at this point, but the more that downstate labor and Democratic organization votes are split, the stronger Barack Obama is with a unified block of African-American votes.
The good news is that he has established the kind of operation that can probably exist beyond they Mayor pulling his support. Hull did something usually reserved for Presidential campaigns--he organized the cycle before and sent out at least 10 campaign workers to organize and help the Democratic operation around the state. Most frequently, such moves are made in Iowa and New Hampshire by potential Presidential candidates. While someone else may have done this previously, it hasn't been done in Illinois at anywhere near the level he has. This provides him contacts and organizational capacity far exceeding other candidates who make their first run. And this is where he becomes very different from Arnold Maremont.
The better news is that he has millions to spend and isn't shy about doing so. He is reported to be overpaying his staff, but that certainly has not hurt other millionaires such as Jon Corzine who was a bonanza for political professionals. Ultimately, money does not win an election as Al Hofeld found out, but it certainly can make a reasonable candidate competitive in a hurry.
So how competitive is Hull? It is hard to say this early. His name recognition is low since he has never run for office before and especially so since two of the most significant rivals, Dan Hynes and Maria Pappas, have high name recognition from running statewide twice in Hynes case and in Cook for Pappas. He certainly has the money to raise that name recognition in a hurry and seems to be on the verge of running the first round of commercials this summer.
Illinois is generally an organization state, meaning those with the strongest ties to party organizations tend to do best in elections. In this sense, Hull is behind Dan Hynes, the young Illinois Comptroller and son of Thomas Hynes, one of the most powerful Democrats in Cook County. Hynes is racking up support of County Chairmen around the state. The knock on Hynes is he has never faced a tough primary or general election fight and appears to be having difficulty raising money despite the machine support he is receiving. It appears that Hynes is running an inevitability campaign to push others out. While Hynes is in a strong position, the crowded field largely makes such a strategy ineffective. Hull should be considered an underdog, but not a prohibitive one given the early challenges Hynes is facing and the opportunities a crowded field hands to any candidate.
archpundit 5/30/2003 12:16:51 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hastert admits the Obvious
Illinois is at the bottom end of states the President is targeting for reelection. He suggests a strong Senate candidate is necessary to help make Illinois competitive, but is not backing anyone at this point.
archpundit 5/29/2003 11:17:05 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Fawell's Former Lover Indicted for
And another indictment in the License for Bribes scandal with Alexandra Prokos has been indicted for perjury during testimony concerning the Licenses for Bribes grand juries.
As the article states, this looks like more of a move to generate pressure on Fawell than anything else.
archpundit 5/29/2003 11:13:39 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Emil Jones: Comedian
Said to Phyllis Schlafly during ERA hearings in the Illinois Senate
"My only regret about bringing up this proposed constitutional amendment is that it has resurrected you."
That's beautiful.
archpundit 5/29/2003 11:08:45 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Death Penalty Reform Goes to the Guv
The Illinois Senate passed the Death Penalty Reforms with John Cullerton out in front,
The Senate voted 56-3 on the bill that makes it easier for murder suspects to defend themselves and gives courts extraordinary power to set aside death sentences.
"This is a revolutionary change that will be a model for other states that have the death penalty,'' said Sen. John Cullerton (D-Chicago), the bill's sponsor.
The legislation sent to Gov. Rod Blagojevich Thursday requires juries to consider more factors in deciding whether a defendant lives or dies, prohibits executing mentally retarded people, gives defendants more access to police evidence, lets judges file dissents from jury verdicts and gives the Supreme Court new power to set aside "unjust'' sentences.
It also gives the accused greater access to genetic tests that might exonerate them and sets up a pilot program to study the best way to do police lineups of suspects.
The bill is good, and far better than I thought possible. In one of my few nods to the Legislature, they put aside petty political posturing in favor of strong reform that doesn't perfect the system, but makes it better. There is always political hay to be made out of crime and punishment bills, but for the most part, Legislators did the right thing.
archpundit 5/29/2003 3:58:57 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Premcor Suit
The State of Illinois is finally taking on Premcor and going after the Hartford refinery environmental problems. While Premcor wasn't the primary owner when the problems started, they are the responsible party now. The RFT did a fairly good job on the issue previously.
This is the second refinery Premcor has had a problem with in the Midwest with Blue Island, Illinois being the other. In both cases, Premcor didn't start the problems, but bought problem refineries and failed to adequately clean them up. The IEPA refused to act strongly, presumably because of concerns that jobs would be lost. What the IEPA missed is that the jobs should have been lost on outdated and dangerous refineries that had no business being on-line.
Don't even start on the Port Arthur refinery.
archpundit 5/29/2003 3:45:18 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Ritual Slaughter, Gay Rights, and Creationism
Is the first headline I found at Phillip Johnson's new blog. Give him points for catching one's eye.
The great thing is he doesn't stick to the Intelligent Design schtick so you get Johnson's ignorance on a whole variety of issues!
archpundit 5/29/2003 3:34:15 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Obama News
In their weekly mailer, a bit stripped from the Capitol Fax gives some insight into who Simmons entry into the Senate race benefits,
The recent entry into the Democratic U.S. Senate primary of a wealthy trial lawyer from Downstate should help Barack Obama's chances, according to a number of political analysts this week. The candidacy of John Simmons, who has pledged to spend $10 million of his own money on the race, threatens the chances of Dan Hynes and Blair Hull - two Chicago-based candidates who are vying for Downstate support, analysts state. They add that Simmons' entry should help Obama, whose campaign is focusing on Chicago and suburban voters and urban communities Downstate. For example, Rich Miller of Capitol Fax reported on May 21 that "Barack Obama may benefit the most" from a Simmons bid, which would split support among the candidates in populous Madison County -Simmons' home.
IOW, Simmons will pick up votes in Metro-East that aren't African-American and that seems to be an accurate prediction. The question is can Simmons have any impact at all.
archpundit 5/29/2003 2:23:07 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
He Just Can't Win
Bush takes on Sharon (finally) and then Evangelicals start taking shots at his Israeli policy.
Pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon regarding his country's position on the Palestinians could incur the wrath of the 50 million-strong evangelical community in the U.S. the president hopes will "turn out in record numbers next year," observes the newsweekly.
It describes the evangelical Christian-Jewish alliance as a "typical marriage of faith, principle and convenience," but adds that "mere politics is involved, too." For conservative Christians want to "shed their image of intolerance." "Newsweek" reports that conservative activist Grover Norquist says evangelical believers are "tired of being branded anti-Semites."
One-time presidential nominee candidate and Christian campaigner Gary Bauer told the magazine that Bush's failure to call for the ouster of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, and his sending Secretary of State Colin Powell to meet with Arafat, was "more than those of us who support Israel could take."
Bauer recently organized a protest letter signed by two dozen evangelical leaders that warned President Bush against being soft with the Palestinians. Speaking at a Zionist conference earlier this month, "The Washington Times" said, Bauer said: "The land of Israel was originally owned by God. Since He was the owner, only He could give it away. And He gave it to the Jewish people."
Groan. Now if Bush is successful he gets points from me. Hell he gets points now for pushing Sharon to do the right thing. Sharon admitted the other day that overseeing Palestineans is bad for his democracy and he is right (well way right, but that is a different story). Actually it is the same story. Most Israelis are to the left of Sharon--maybe not far left, but if he is willing to move on creating a Palestinean state with guarantees of Israeli security, what exactly is there to be upset about?
For some-rapture politics. Bauer himself isn't such a person, but many evangelicals think the West Bank must be under Jewish control for the Second Coming and so they don't want the President to push for an independent Palestinean state.
On one hand you can dismiss these views as those of kooks-and be correct--James Inhofe is a kook. On the other hand, a significant group of evangelicals believe it. Will it hurt Bush in the election? Probably not--with even Bauer not arguing that position, Bush is relatively safe. The danger is death by paper cuts if Evangelicals get in minor, but repeated piques over issues. For references see the Green Party.
archpundit 5/29/2003 2:13:19 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Write Your Senator
Nuclear Nonproliferation should be the single most important issue being addressed by Washington. Currently the Nuclear Threat Reduction Campaign is urging people to contact their Senators to ensure several provisions from Curt Weldon are included in the Defense Authorization Bill
Among the key Weldon provisions included in the defense bill are two that address what a recent Harvard study, commissioned by the Nuclear Threat Initiative headed by Ted Turner and former Senator Sam Nunn, called the "first and most urgent priority" in the battle to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of terrorists: protecting "nuclear material at the most vulnerable sites around the world." The first such measure calls for acceleration of a U.S. Department of Energy program to help install basic security measures at all Russian nuclear materials storage facilities. The urgency here is evidenced in the admission in the department's own FY 2004 budget documents that by October 2004 there will still be enough nuclear material to build 16,000 atomic bombs in Russian facilities lacking the most basic security protection, such as fences, strengthened doors and locks, and bricked up or barred windows.
The second of those provisions authorizes a new initiative to conduct a worldwide cleanout of bomb-grade plutonium and uranium from poorly guarded civilian facilities, such as research reactors, outside the former Soviet Union (FSU). There are hundreds of these very vulnerable facilities in scores of countries, and they are tempting targets for groups like al Qaeda. The bill makes $78 million available for "disarmament and nonproliferation" programs outside the FSU, which should make it possible for this effort to move forward quickly.
Among the other major provisions derived from H.R. 1719 that were included in the defense bill are those that would:
***Require the formulation of a comprehensive plan for U.S. programs to assist the states of the FSU in securing and disposing of their huge stockpiles of biological and chemical weapons and direct the President to appoint a senior official to coordinate those programs and give that official sufficient staff and other resources to do an effective job of coordination.
***Encourage a U.S.-Russian collaborative upgrading of Russia's dangerously faulty and inadequate missile early warning systems, which a RAND study released May 21 concluded have "deteriorated significantly" and pose "extremely troubling" risks of a Russian launch of a nuclear attack on the U.S. through accident or miscalculation.
***Mandate efforts to work with Russia to develop comprehensive inventories of the two countries' nuclear weapons and materials and exchange the data in the inventories, with special emphasis on developing detailed information on the smaller, tactical warheads that are especially susceptible to being stolen and smuggled into the U.S. by terrorists.
***Establish a Congress-Russian Duma working group devoted to "reducing nuclear weapons dangers," including ways to fight the acquisition of nuclear weapons by terrorists.
***Establish exchanges between U.S. and Russian nuclear scientists to promote scientific answers to helping safeguard nuclear material.
Make It So!
archpundit 5/29/2003 1:54:05 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
From the Inbox
If Tom Delay prevails in the Texas redistricting, someone should agitate for the Democratic controlled Illinois General Assembly and the Democratic (former congressman) governor to reapportion Illinois districts. They could, for example, put Speaker of the House Hastert in the same district as Don Manzullo, Jerry Weller in with Tim Johnson, and Ray LaHood in with John Shimkus. I'm sure they could rearrange the Chicago area to create at least one more demcocratic district. I think they should do it anyway.
Sigh...No. While the current map is a disaster, redistricting again only sets up a cycle of constant retribution. In addition it would require a state Constitutional amendment. Doing it once, even badly is better than trying to redo it until the next Census.
archpundit 5/29/2003 1:35:01 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Irony at the Leader
First, Lott has gone and gotten himself a blog. I'll be adding this to the links under funny stuff.
Second, Lott is interviewed in the Illinois Leader with this quote,
Some years ago I was teaching a class that dealt with crime issues. I thought my students would be interested in reading some papers on gun control. I started looking for papers for them to read and was shocked at how poorly done the research was. I decided to do my own study.
I couldn't make this stuff up folks!
He seems to be getting better at including all of the facts concerning the Appalachian Law School story,
There was a case last year that got a lot of attention, an attack at Appalachian Law School in Virginia (in which three people were killed). When the attack started, two students at the school, who had law enforcement backgrounds, ran to their cars, got their guns, came back, pointed their guns at the attacker and ordered him to drop his gun. When he did so they tackled him and held him until police arrived.
Go read Tim Lambert for lots more on recent Lott happenings.
archpundit 5/28/2003 12:49:04 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Mike Kelleher Will Not Be Running For the US Senate
In one of two stories today that required some (well, not much) actual reporting, Mike Kelleher confirms that he will not be running for the Illinois Democratic nomination to the US Senate in 2004. While he had not been listed as one of the likely candidates in most places, I had heard persistent rumors and so I asked him.
Kelleher, for those who are not familiar with him, ran a spirited race in the 15th Congressional District in 2000 coming within six points of Republican Tim Johnson who won the open seat vacated by Tom Ewing. While losing a race might not seem like a resume builder, Kelleher ran in what has traditionally been one of the most conservative Congressional Districts in Illinois and actually won McLean County--an amazing feat for Democrat. He then ran with Rod Blagojevich for Lieutenant Governor, but was swamped with Pat Quinn's name recognition in the primary.
Initially, Kelleher was considering a run in 2002 against Johnson, but he was redistricted into Jerry Weller's 11th Congressional District which was far less friendly than the 15th. To do this, Bloomington-Normal was split in two right down the middle leaving Kelleher in the 11th by a few blocks.
Johnson is, ummmm...let's say a character. I'll leave the fuller explanation for a time when he has done something really dumb. Certainly that is part of the reason Kelleher was able to do so well, as is the changing nature of McLean County. An interesting map I came across indicates McLean has the lowest percentage of individuals without High School Diplomas. With this base, he may have been an early benficiary of the argument made in The Emerging Democratic Majority.
With the crowded field the Senate race would have been a very tough one for Kelleher given the nature of the candidates already in the field. Hull has millions, Hynes has organization and name recognition, Pappas has Name ID, and Obama has organization. Oh, and this Simmons character has millions.
UPDATE: First, the link to the map doesn't work. However, the two maps are present at the end of the link showing the rate of those with high school education over age 25 and the rate of those without a high school education. Champaign and McLean both have very high rates of high school education and very low rates of those without a high school degree. In a completely inside joke--Fred Walk taught me better.
Second, I indicated that Mike Kelleher was redistricted out of the 15th by a few blocks. I made the mistake of going by memory and was wrong. He was redistricted into the 11th by 1/2 block. He was quoted in the Tribune as saying, "If I go to the end of my driveway, I can through a baseball into the 15th district." I'll cover the redistricting shenanigans in a later post, but he was not the only one who received such treatment. Luis Gutierrez's primary opponent in the 2000 election was similarly excluded from Gutierrez's new district.
archpundit 5/28/2003 12:35:22 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Oh where, Oh where is ArchPundit?
Actually tracking down some news--more on that later. The next few weeks plan to be hectic--about the time that Tom Spencer will be getting back from grading AP exams in Texas , I'll be heading to Colorado to do the same.
Between now and then I have some deadlines so blogging will be inconsistent, but I have some larger posts in the pipeline so perhaps I'll offer up some quality over quantity.
As regular readers can tell, I'm still blogging pseudonymously, but that may or may not change in the near future. Either way, I'm less guarded about it with some changes in St. Louis recently. IOW, I've pretty much been given the green light to bloviate at will. With Kos becoming public, perhaps it is a trend.
Now if Sid would just admit he is Atrios, all would be good.
archpundit 5/28/2003 11:39:46 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Federal Injunction Denied for Meigs
US District Judge James Moran declined to issue an emergency order barring the City of Chicago from taking further action on Meigs. He went further to suggest he may not have authority over the case,
"I don't think I have jurisdiction to take any action," Moran said. He noted that if the Federal Aviation Administration is concerned about Meigs' closing, it can involve the U.S. Attorney's office. But it has yet to do so.
archpundit 5/23/2003 9:56:13 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Jack Ryan Pledges $6 Million to Campaign
Jack Ryan (nonimations for how to refer to him given the plethora of Ryans are being taken) pledged to spend $6 Million of his own money in a race for the US Senate, but not to entirely self-fund.
Dandy, more millionaires self-funding for their first race at an office and starting at the Senate. Hey--why not the Presidency?
On a serious note, let me address a concern I received yesterday for my comments concerning millionaires. First, those who gain their political clout by accident of birth are not any better and the two most obvious Illinois examples are Lisa Madigan and Dan Hynes. Madigan had at least been in the Legislature, Hynes simply ran for statewide office with no experience on his father's name. In both cases I was skeptical--but you didn't get the treat of my complaining about it because they started their runs before this blog. I would argue that Madigan beat one of the strongest candidates for Attorney General ever--in the primary. John Schmidt was uber qualified and a great candidate and the Party should have chosen him. They didn't.
In both cases, a moderate Republican might have even caught my interest, but Birkett and Lauzen made Madigan and Hynes look like excellent candidates.
My ultimate problem with candidates jumping over many people who have dedicated their lives to public service. Public service in the form of elected office consists of skills that being a businessman or a kid dont' necessarily teach. Understanding unintended consequences and how to incorporate those ideas from those you disagree with are important skills and I would prefer people learn them at lower levels--whether it be in city government or the state legislature.
Are there some who make the transition well? Yeah. Of course--Hynes and Madigan are good examples and I'm sure some millionaires have done quite well jumping over others. I do have concerns about some including Corzine and Kohl (especially early in his career) who show some deficiencies in how they go about their jobs. And to admit the obvious, long periods of service certainly don't guarantee a strong performance. Peter Fitzgerald didn't simply leap to national office, and I aside from ideological differences, he ran his office poorly and was ineffective as a legislator.
In the Senate race and other races around the country, millionaires are starting to treat the Senate as a personal playground. Simmons entered the race today. Oberwies, Hull, Jack Ryan, John Cox,and Andrew McKenna. How many years of elective office do they combined have (and I'm not including precinct captains)---0. Some might be good Senators--Hull probably would be, at worst, okay. McKenna, other than ideology, seems to have the temperment and experience working with government. The others? Who knows. I'd rather seem them play in the farm league first.
This doesn't even include Corrine Wood who, like Fitzgerald, at least didn't start at the top. On the other end, Hynes is a legacy, but the other candidates have worked their way up. And even Hynes has had a position for the last 5 years in which he has performed well.
The notion that the US Senate could become a millionaires club full of those who decided to run for it because they could disturbs me. It doesn't mean every self-funded candidate is bad, but it does mean we should be skeptical of them.
archpundit 5/23/2003 5:19:53 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Dog Bites Man II
So let me get this straight--Powell is for allowing higher degrees of radio and TV consolidation, but is against micro-radio stations.
This issue isn't really confusing-Clear Channel and the lesser evils are trying to boot out competition with an oligopoly. The only question is why anyone is allowing it other than craven self-interest.
archpundit 5/23/2003 4:26:34 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Dog Bites Man
The Saint Louis Business Journal reports that Missouri and Illinois rank on a measure of lobbyist influence in policy-making.
Um...Duh.
archpundit 5/23/2003 4:22:32 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Machine Rumors for the Presidential Candidates
While the Illinois Democratic Machine is often made out to be a singular body of movement, this is a poor representation of a body that has a variety of factions fighting for the upperhand. Groupthink is probably a better term for way consensus is reached and the groupthink around Presidential candidates is interesting.
People working in politics in Chicago seldom get out right statements about who is good to support, instead leaving little clues about who is favored. So one might say that he is going to an Edwards fundraiser and receive a non-committal nod, sorta like that is interesting. Or one might mention Gephardt and get an approving nod.
And, of course, there are no shortage of rumors who the Machine Leaders think are the best Presidential Candidates such as Daley's supposed affinity towards Howard Dean, while thinking that Kerry has the best shot in the general election.
Who knew, Da Mayor could write for most national publications.
archpundit 5/23/2003 3:48:16 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Dean's Internet Campaign
Quickly becoming one of the young stories of the election cycle is Howard Dean's effective use of the internet. Ryan Lizza covers it mentioning how a piece of his was fisked,
Anyone who writes critically about Dean can expect his copy to be chewed up by this army of zealous Dean Internet scribes. When I wrote a piece recently that contained a few paragraphs about Dean, a member of the Dean2004 blog team filed an almost 2,000-word entry slicing my article up into sections with labels such as "true," "false," "inadvertently true," and "foolish." Not content with this, the Dean blogosphere recently established a rapid-reaction team called the Dean Defense Forces (DDF)?an e-mail list of hard-core Dean supporters who swiftly push back with e-mails, letters to the editor, blog entries, and phone calls against anyone spreading anti-Dean sentiments. "When he gets attacked, we'll respond," pledges the DDF's organizer, Matthew Singer, a 20-year-old college student in Montana who once blogged about Dean on his own site, Left in the West.
What is interesting about this is how decentralized the system works not even using campaign resources. Two problems come to my mind, though I'm sure Trippi has thought of them. First, fisking (an unfortunate technique in the first place) isn't likely to make its way into the larger discussion unless the refutations are made readable and accessible to the uninitiated. The rapid responses have to be done in a highly public way to matter. Given many reporters are obviously reading blogs this problem may be solved.
Second, there is a potential downside--what happens when a supporter goes bonkers? Does a campaign want to be associated with someone with difficult positions? I mean, the whole anti-evolution movement amongst wingnuts in the Republican Party doesn't hurt them, but what about a blogger who writes stuff that doesn't jibe with the campaign? Does it start to influence those who read it and confuse the separation of views between supporters and candidates?
I raise the issue because Dean's blog links to me and I was thinking about it during the Santorum dustups. Dean went after Santorum for equating gay relationships with various forms of disturbing relationships including polygamy. I argue that while polygamy is almost always a problem in practice, the essential issue of religious liberty for marriage is the same as for gay marriage. Could this ultimately hurt a candidate?
I doubt it--at least this early in blogging, but I can imagine such issues becoming important in the future.
archpundit 5/23/2003 2:22:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Meigs Lawsuit Thrown Out
The lawsuit to stop the destruction of Meigs Field was thrown out and the restraining order was dissolved.
The judge noted Northerly Island, on which Meigs was sited, was created as parkland. It was turned into an airport in the late 1940s at the urging of Chicago newspaper publisher Merrill Meigs. The airport's owner is the Chicago Park District.
"The original intended use of the land was as a public park," Maki said.
The judge also rejected the plaintiffs' allegations the city violated the state's open meetings law by making a significant public policy decision behind closed doors, and violated state law by making alternations to a runway without first getting approval from the Illinois Department of Public Transportation.
Daley deserves lots of the criticism he gets for being heavy-handed and essentially anti-democratic. In this case, he was right. This lawsuit is nothing more than an attempt to thwart public processes that have been working for nearly 10 years now.
Opponents of closing Meigs continue to sue in federal court and are seeking an emergency injunction.
Hmmmmm...any bulldozer sitings out there?
archpundit 5/23/2003 1:04:27 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Millionaires, Millionaires
We haven't even gotten to the Republican Candidates and more Democrats are jumping into the Illinois Senate Race. Trial Lawyer John Simmons joins the race promising to largely self-fund. '
My first reaction is Who? What? Huh?
I suppose he has a point that a fractured field could lead to an opening, but something jumped out at me,
Simmons, 35, lives in Edwardsville, near St. Louis. As the only Downstate Democrat, he could grab much of the Downstate vote, while the six Chicago candidates split the metropolitan area vote.
The problem is that Southern and Metro-East Dems are labor heavy with Hynes already having much of labor wrapped up in the region and many of the state lege members such as Vince Demuzio. Costello hasn't committed (AFAIK), but he looks to be backing Hynes. Simmons is going to have a hard time finding daylight in Metro-East with Obama taking the African-American vote. Central Illinois is either labor or goo--goo oriented also providing Hynes and Obama advantages. Hull has as much money and closer ties to the Governor so I'm at a loss as to how Simmons comes out looking well.
I have some other developments that will be coming out over the weekend for the Senate race, but I find Simmons entry curiuos.
And I'll be covering more on my comments about millionaires running for office. Let me say, my comments came off far harsher on Hull than I intended. I have a problem with the class of people who run for office without public experience, but that doesn't mean all of the individuals who do so are necessarily bad. And it extends to political legacies as well.
archpundit 5/23/2003 12:53:19 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Background on the Permanent Campaign
Rich Miller addresses Blagojevich's relationship with the Lege and offers up some details that haven't been covered well.
Don't get me wrong--if Blagojevich is trying to reform budgeting and change the way things are done--good for him, but he is going to have to deal with these people for some time and this strategy is bound to backfire--see Pataki getting overridden on 119 vetos.
archpundit 5/23/2003 12:38:03 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Joyce Morrison Does It Again
What is it? I don't know, but it is pretty damn amusing to try and figure out.
archpundit 5/23/2003 12:25:22 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Well, It Is Sorta Funny
The Illinois Leader offers excruciating detail for Blagojevich leaving the Capitol.
That's keeping the eye on the ball!
archpundit 5/23/2003 12:22:34 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
It's All Fun and Games Until Someone is Hit with An Audit
Carl Officer has opened his administration calling for two investigations. The first was one to look into the circumstances of a city officials recent death which seems a bit strange. The second is to investigate East Saint Louis' grant making offices including Tax Increment Financing and Community Development Block Grant funds for potential improprieties.
(nervous tic)
Good for Carl.
(Did I just say that?)
(Why yes I did)
Good for Carl. I don't know of any specific problems with these departments and it could be Officer being Officer, but a good lookover by Federal and State officials would do the town well.
archpundit 5/23/2003 11:30:20 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Gambling and Subpoenas
Two articles up at the Political State Report
archpundit 5/23/2003 12:20:34 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
It Took Prison to Make Her Look Decent
For many years Betty Loren-Maltese was the crooked circus clown of Cicero politics with the huge red hair and painted face. It has taken prison to make her look like a normal human being:
The Sun-Times covers her time in prison and she has made the requisite efforts to claim a jail house conversion.
Of course, the real story is told in this line:
Loren-Maltese told Fox News her family is financially supported by her friends.
archpundit 5/22/2003 3:09:22 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Movement on Burge Torture Case
The Tribune reports that the special prosecutors investigating torture under former Chicago Police Commander John Burge.
Moreover, they have gathered 130,000 documents--a total of more than 1 million sheets of paper, they said--that chronicle the controversial legacy of one of Chicago's most enduring police scandals.
A grand jury in the case has issued subpoenas, Egan and Boyle said, although in some instances, those subpoenaed have agreed to cooperate and have met with the special prosecutors outside the grand jury.
"Is there a reluctance to talk?" said Boyle. "For some of them, of course there is." Others, he said, have helped to move the inquiry forward.
"They're not all saying, `I'm not going to talk to you,'" said Egan.
Egan and Boyle said that with help from attorneys and through their investigation, they have uncovered nearly two dozen new cases--bringing to 86 the total number they are investigating. They initially began work on 12 Death Row cases.
One hopes they are successful. After torturing suspects for years, Burge is now retired and living a nice life in Florida. That is wrong.
archpundit 5/21/2003 11:16:00 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Ryan Name Confusion Much Adieu about Nothing
Eric Zorn points out that near the end of the Jim Ryan for Governor campaign, Ryan name confusion was at 3 % and dropping meaning the name wasn't the problem. The problem was the worst campaign in a long time and that Jim Ryan did nothing to make himself a strong choice for voters. The remarkable thing is how well he did despite this.
The rest of the column is a positive profile of Jack Ryan, one that he hasn't earned. And I'll say the same thing about Blair Hull. Being rich and the such doesn't make one a good candidate. It makes one rich. Buying into these guys spiels is hogwash. They have never put themselves on the line in elected office. They may do well, but without a public record no one has any business building them up.
archpundit 5/21/2003 11:24:57 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Fox overlooking the Hen House
Not Amiel, the convict, but his brother Lloyd was appointed to the Courts Commission that oversees judicial behavior.
Dandy.
archpundit 5/21/2003 11:11:47 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
John Kass Suggests Perle wouldn't be tolerated in Chicago
Really and he goes on to wonder why a subpeona hasn't been served.
Perle is a leading intellectual, and one of the main architects of the war to oust Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq. And for the record, I agreed with him on that, and still do, and the only regret I have about it--aside from the American and Iraqi deaths--is that it wasn't done sooner.
Perle also serves on the Defense Policy Board, a group that advises Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. The members of the board receive top-secret information, they're insiders and they're in business, many of them, representing billions of dollars in defense-related industries, including homeland security.
In Chicago, if an alderman played those games he could get a subpoena. In Washington, though, the insiders write chin-stroking op-ed pieces and have fashionable brunches in horse country on weekends.
There are hundreds of thousands of American families that have sent loved ones to Iraq or Afghanistan, or to other dangerous places, where they risk their lives carrying out government policy. That anyone advising the president should be involved in an apparent conflict of interest, which is a polite way of saying war profiteering, is revolting.
I told you profiteering would be an election issue--Kass is a strong supporter of the President.
If the Clintons had played it this way, Republicans would shriek their outrage. Now, though, the Republicans are silent.
I saw Bush speak in Philadelphia three years ago. It looked as if he actually believed the words coming out of his mouth. And I could hear him plainly.
I didn't even have to read his lips.
archpundit 5/21/2003 11:07:36 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Speed Up the Strip Club Licenses
Washington Park can't pay the employees of the town.
archpundit 5/21/2003 11:01:17 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Flying Rutabega (sic) Circus Review
The Post-Dispatch mildly slaps the hand of the SLMPD and Joe Mokwa this morning. The editorial is far too mild. The SLMPD appears to be heavy-handed and incompetent. Not a reassuring combination for those who depend upon them.
In describing the Flying Rutebega Circus arrests, The Post-Dispatch states,
Its members describe themselves as a "rag-tag ensemble of circus acts, puppet shows, jugglers and musical numbers" who bicycle across the country to protest genetically modified food. Last Friday, the Rutabegas were riding down the center of Arsenal Street when police handcuffed them and took them to the police station for riding bikes without a license. The City Counselor's office acknowledges that the ordinance isn't enforced, and the city won't press charges.
There is no question here whether that ordinance is on the books. It is not. The ordinance was repealed two years ago More troubling is the cyclists were hit with Impeding Traffic charges which is a charge cops pull out to harrass cyclists and is, in most cases, a violation of state law that treats bicycles as vehicles on roads. Indymedia and the Missouri Bike Federation are outperforming the Saint Louis Post-Dispatch in accuracy.
In fact, the Post-Dispatch misses its own reporting on the subject from June 10,2000
Aldermen also voted Friday to eliminate the city's long-ignored bicycle license requirement and to ban motor vehicles from bike paths except for emergency purposes.
Continuing on in the editorial,
Mr. Mokwa isn't apologizing for a questionable search of two houses - one on Cherokee Street and one on Illinois Avenue - where some of the protesters were staying. He said neighbors had complained and that some protesters had taunted police.
First, if only the City was the efficient at dealing with code complaints all of the time this might pass the smell test. Second, taunting the police is not against the law. Indeed, I've done my share of taunting though usually in relation to asking officers why they feel traffic laws don't apply to them. For some reason they never want to arrest me.
The chief used a building code violation to send officers and housing inspectors into the homes. There they seized a box of roofing nails - a type not used in rehabbing old buildings, the chief said - a bucket of rocks, a slingshot and some torches.
Some nails, some rocks, a slingshot and some torches. The horrors. The horrors I tell you. Given I recently had a lead paint inspector in my apartment, I might have everything but the torches. I don't know where my slingshot is.
Police also hauled off two eight-foot wooden dolls used in protests (one a caricature of a police officer and the other of an alderman). Police arrested more than a dozen people.
Now here, shouldn't we consider impounding Tom Bauer for being a caricature of an Alderman? I mean really-what is the bigger threat to the city?
Under normal circumstances, housing inspectors and police officers need a warrant before searching a home. Arrests and searches for minor charges can help clean up cities Giuliani-style. But these tactics shouldn't be used to target protesters.
I'm actually a big fan of targeting nuisance crime, but the protesters weren't being nuisances--at least in the legal sense. In one case they were cycling and in the other case, they were, ummmm...in their homes. The point of targeting nuisance crime on the street is to clean up street crime and make it inhospitable to criminals, not people living in their homes.
But the real story appears to be picked up by Indymedia, a group I'm not fond of in terms of their coverage. Via Unsubscibe Indymedia reprints the St. Louis Coptalk threads pulled by the moderator. While one should never take CopTalk too seriously, the thread seems to indicate the police were a little too far on edge for the city's own good.
Another issue that I am unable to confirm is that the condemnation order of the building searched was only issued the morning of the search.
This was a heavy-handed smackdown of dissent. Dissent by those I'm not particularly sympathetic to, but that is the point. They might be silly, they might be stupid, they migh smell real bad, but they have a right to peacefully assemble and to date the SLMPD has shown virtually no credible evidence that widespread violence was likely.
Being prepared is good. Being paranoid and letting that paranoia reduce the ability of individuals to practice freedom of speech is intolerable.
archpundit 5/21/2003 10:50:17 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
I'm Betting Whitman's Story Will Be Drip, Drip, Drip...
Christie Todd Whitman turned in her resignation today putting the Bush administration on the spot to find a decent EPA Administrator that will placate the base and suburban swing voters.
The interesting part of the story appears to be the quick nature of it and one has to wonder whether she is leaving over a policy decision--now is about the last time to drop an anti-environmental bomb before the campaign gets underway (oy vey--it is May of 2003) or is something she has done caused concern in the Beltway Press?
Usually I accept lines about spending time with one's family because public service is very demanding, something commentators poo-poo all too easily. However, the timing and difficult time she has been having seem to signal a bit more.
archpundit 5/21/2003 9:43:56 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Michelin Fries
Wyeth points us to the US Hous providing Michelin with a big 'ole contract to supply the Marines.
Heh. Oh and read down his blog and notice Democrat Obstruction Day.
Indeed.
archpundit 5/20/2003 11:30:15 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Iraq
We can officially code Iraq as not having a shall issue law for concealed carry permits. The New York Times reports that only approved security guards will be able to carry outside the home and then the weapons cannot be concealed.
Indeed.
Now, we can assume much of the heavy weaponry came from the armed forces, but the underlying implication does appear to be that small arms were widely distributed throughout Iraq.
Heh.
archpundit 5/20/2003 11:12:40 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lincoln the Quorum Breaker
Rich Miller adds to the humor by pointing out the Great Abraham Lincoln was a quorum breaker too,
LINCOLN BROKE A QUORUM Back in 1839, the Illinois House was meeting in special session and hatched a plan to vote on a Democratic bill to require the state's central bank to make payments in gold or silver, rather than paper money. The Whig Party strongly opposed the idea, and, led by Rep. Abraham Lincoln, decided on the spot that the best way to kill the proposal was to deny the majority Democrats a quorum. So, they left the building, the
Second Presbyterian Church in Springfield. But two members were required under law back then to demand that a quorum call be made. Lincoln and another House Whig, Joseph Gillespie, walked into the chambers and made the motion. No quorum was present and a vote couldn't be taken. The next day, though, Lincoln and the Whigs made the same attempt, but the House Speaker ordered the doors locked behind them and summoned some members who had previously been too ill to attend the session. A quorum was now present.
Lincoln realized the problem and he and the other Whigs jumped out of a window to try to halt the vote, but the quorum was already certified and the Whigs lost. According to Lincoln friend William Herndon, the window jumping had no effect "other than to provide the Democrats with capital material for ridicule."
For your amusement.
archpundit 5/20/2003 10:02:45 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Caucus Power!
Giving some hope to decent government in Illinois, Rich Miller of the Capitol Fax reports that caucuses are showing some muscle to the current 4 tops:
CAUCUS POWER Non-party caucuses may be coming into their own this year.
The Legislative Minority Caucus has been moving plenty of bills through the General Assembly and was able to impose its will on the O'Hare bill. It also convinced Senate President Emil Jones not to take away Sen. Rickey Hendon's committee chairmanship earlier this spring. The caucus will also likely have more to say about the budget.
The Latino Caucus extracted a major pound of flesh from SBC last week. The Southland Caucus could actually make the Peotone Airport a reality. As mentioned above, the Downstate House Dems are working the road bill while the Downstate House GOPs are pushing the nursing home stuff.
And the ever-more-powerful Conference of Women Legislators has been zipping women-friendly bills through the General Assembly all session and will undoubtedly make changes in the budget, as it has so often in the past.
Despite rules and traditions in both chambers designed to concentrate legislative power in the hands of the four leaders, members are finding ways to get things done on their own. This is a very good thing.
archpundit 5/19/2003 10:29:05 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Leader considers the Republican Candidates
The Illinois Leader runs down the potential Republicans and, uh, they don't look that strong. It appears that Jack Ryan has the lead with RTA Chair McCracken behind. Ryan is a neophyte and McCracken has strong ties to the DuPage Republican Machine which is likely to be torn apart by federal prosecutors across the next year.
In the second tier, perienial loser John Cox comes in tied with probably the most serious candidate, Steve Rauschenberger. Behind them comes a list of those exploring the idea including Jim Durkin who was beat by Durbin in 2002.
Just to assure everyone that is worried the Illinois Circular Firing Squad Team has not dissolved into a party of peace, love and understanding,
Questions were asked from three different conference sponsors, and each of the candidates responded to the questions. One question involved calling for the ouster of Bob Kjellander as the Illinois GOP's national committeeman and a public apology to the past state chairman Gary Macdougal for the way he was ousted from his position, and replaced by current chair Judy Baar-Topinka.
Senator Rauschenberger gave a firm agreement to a call for the ousting of Kjellander, and others acknowledged what they called inappropriate responses to Macdougal's leadership in the Illinois GOP last year.
Oh, this is going to be fun to watch--especially if moderate Judy Biggert gets in the race as Topinka is trying to have happen.
Welcome back boys, I missed the fireworks!
archpundit 5/19/2003 10:27:22 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Next Up: The SBC Court Battle
In a story that will probably never die, several suits are expected over the new law regulating local access rates for phones service.
The amazing thing is that no one seems to bother with even discussing what a system with real competition would look like.
archpundit 5/19/2003 10:12:03 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Amtrak hassles
The federal government doesn't want to actually invest in a real train system and the states are stuck with outdated infrastructure. What will happen? Amtrak operations will continue to essentially outside of the Northeast. I'll guarantee that a year or two out, federal subsidies will be restored on particular routes unless the system is completely rebuilt.
archpundit 5/19/2003 10:07:53 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Sort of an Answer on Gambling Expansion
And it is good news--while I'm not necessarily against legalized gambling, the Governor gets it right in describing "...video poker as the crack cocaine of gambling...,"
He has vowed to veto any bill allowing it in taverns.
Now if we could only get the current ban enforced in St. Clair County and Chicago proper.
archpundit 5/19/2003 10:03:44 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Teamsters Back Hynes
In an unsurprising move, the Teamsters back Dan Hynes for the Democratic Primary in the US Senate Race. He may well have close to a sweep of union endorsements.
archpundit 5/19/2003 9:44:41 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
EPA Finally Takes Action On Zonolite
After trying to avoid declaring it dangerous, the EPA declares Zonolite dangerous to human health. The Post-Dispatch appears to be the only major paper covering the story in detail. SCLM.
archpundit 5/19/2003 9:36:25 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
What Al From Really Wants
is for Howard Dean to play the roll of Bill Bradley-the intellectual candidate that refuses to rise to the bait of the bullying front runner. Perhaps Dean can roll his eyes when Kerry sends the attack dogs after him and remember he is only a sacrificial lamb.
Or maybe he can fight. Dean is a centrist on nearly every issue, but he isn't going to take it lying down. And he is a hell of a lot like another centrist governor who played hardball in the primary and got the nomination. If you want to criticize all of the candidates for attacks on other Dems--fine. A few comments by Dean make me uncomfortable, but don't single him out and not the clown who hired Lehane as his flak.
The most vacuous complaint comes from The New Republic argues he should have risen above the fray. Yeah, that worked well for Bradley. And um...would the advice to stay above the bad blood start with From who started the little catfight?
Next you know, From and TNR will be calling him shrill...
archpundit 5/19/2003 9:27:35 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Officer Returns to Duty
Is up at Political State Report. Of course I'm referring to Carl Officer, former and current Mayor of East Saint Louis.
archpundit 5/16/2003 10:58:05 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Washington Park Follies
Apparently the don't really know if they have a budget problem or not--well there is a budget problem in that there really isn't one and city officials spend more than is authorized.
Rational government at work. I'm sure more strip clubs will solve the problem.
archpundit 5/15/2003 6:44:05 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
High School and Civil Liberties
One of the great ironies I learned in high school was that while one was being taught civics, participating in the civic process was often not a popular action with the high school administration. For some reason the very places that are supposed to teach students to be risk takers and thoughtful citizens shun students actually practicing those skills. Challenging a principal gets you about the same reaction that challenging a police officer does--a lot of grief even if one is correct. I had some specific teachers who pointed out that while they didn't like it, get used to it and fight it. I went to college and found those skills quite helpful in outperforming students not prepared to challenge professors on a daily basis and professors who enjoyed having someone interested.
Glenbrook North is often cited as an exception to the above, but this week they fail miserably by backing down and trying to suspend students for non-school conduct. Eric Zorn does a bang up job arguing why the school has no business being involved in punishing these students.
Stubborn facts, all of them. And they lead to the conclusion that District 225 officials are making up policy as they go along in a public relations effort that's nearly as disgraceful, though not as messy, as the event that prompted it.
This is not to say that the drunken girls in yellow shirts seen in all those home videos beating and throwing ick on girls in white shirts should not be punished. They should be. First by their parents, and then by the criminal courts.
The closed-fist pummeling, kicking and striking with objects that resulted in bloodshed look an awful lot to me as though they meet the definition of simple battery, a Class A misdemeanor punishable by up to a year in jail. Prosecutors should charge the worst of the offenders.
It was an appalling incident. But it wasn't a school matter, no matter how much figurative slime it has since tossed upon the school's image.
Schools do not and should not have anytime-anyplace authority over students. What students do on their own time is the business of their families and of the legal system, not of red-faced educators who can't even understand their own rules and, when they get desperate, will do such things as try to apply an anti-fraternity law to an annual and non-exclusive ritual.
Schools have a responsibility to teach about civil liberties and the rule of law. The best way to teach in this case is through practice.
The teenagers involved should be punished, but by the law. In fact, allowing the school to handle this case may result in far less serious of punishment than they deserve.
archpundit 5/15/2003 4:56:44 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
SBC Bill Buried
And unfortunately I buried it too, with too many other committments while it was making its way in through the lege. John Kass covers the negligent news coverage of the issue today.
Over four short days in the General Assembly in Springfield last week, the Daleys of Chicago were on one side and everyone who pays a phone bill in Illinois was on the other.
Guess who won.
SBC President Bill Daley, brother of Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, brother of Cook County Commissioner and Political Insurance Duke John Daley, and brother of de facto Zoning Czar Supremo Michael Daley, got what he wanted:
Bill Daley got everything.
He received legislation allowing for a virtual SBC telephone monopoly in Illinois, legislation that bypassed the state regulatory process and allows SBC to raise rates on competitors that use its local phone network.
My only complaint about the above is that Kass' criticism is far too mild. This was nothing but a screw the consumer bill based on the organized political pressure SBC could provide over that of other companies, but most importantly consumers. This bill had no business being handled in the lege--it was a regulatory issue for which the process had not been fully pursued.
Who's fault is it? While both sides of the combine jumped up to whore themselves out, Bill and Richard Daley are responsible. Bill shoved and Richard winked when he made his visit last week. Deregulation means creating more choices and this bill decreases choices and sets rates based upon SBC's shareholder's interest, not necessarily on the balancing of interests between competition and line maintenance.
But I didn't write about Bill Daley, clout and SBC, figuring I'd like to try different subjects, and now I'm sick about it.
Their clout was mentioned in both newspapers, but not prominently, only alluded to, almost an afterthought, with Bill Daley's name buried in the Tribune and the Sun-Times accounts.
And none of the stories put Bill Daley in the first paragraph.
From May 2, when the politics on SBC became public, through Wednesday's editions, the Tribune published 15 stories on the legislation. Nine happened to mention Bill Daley's name.
There were also two Tribune editorials, including one before the vote, and neither mentioned Bill Daley.
The Sun-Times ran seven stories on SBC in that period. Bill Daley's name was mentioned five times, including once in an editorial after the SBC deal was approved.
And TV political news? There are capable TV reporters in Chicago, but TV news directors are afraid of politics. There is no Len O'Connor on TV these days to offer tough and consistent analysis about who gets what and how.
We failed you. I failed you.
And now we can all reach for our checkbooks.
I don't get enough traffic to have mattered, but if I did--I would have failed you as well. While Pat Quinn finally let out a peep that this was a bad idea, the Democratic Party could and should have stopped this bill. I live in Missouri and the same bad bill will be passed here. So I'm just as screwed as Illinois residents. But in Illinois the alarm bells didn't even ring because Daley shut them down.
archpundit 5/15/2003 4:31:50 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
St. Clair County HiJinks
St. Clair County has some interesting scandals brewing, two of which I report at the Political State Report
archpundit 5/15/2003 4:21:37 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Nonsense
Get caught up on the Lott Affair over at Tim Lambert's.
A couple interesting points, Lott has not responded to the data miscoding. This fits a pattern with him where he is questioned about something and attempts to change the subject. It happened to me in discussing his surveys. I tried to get him to answer the question of what the point of the surveys were if they had margins of error that were so large they were unuseful. Lott got angry over some side issues and never answered the question claiming he was being misrepresented.
The irony is that he serially misrepresents other's work.
Reynolds is also playing both sides of the fence claiming he isn't qualified to evaluate the statistical work while slagging on 'antigun' research methodology. I'll agree that much of the popular stats thrown around to support gun control are deceiving, but I'm qualified to comment on all of the statistics. Of course, Tim Lambert points out that many of the criticisms of the work Reynolds seems to be reffering to are inaccurate.
Fundamentally, Reynolds misunderstands social science. He attacks two methods of proxies for determing rates of gun ownership as wanting.
What's most striking to me, though, is another study, by antigun researchers, that tries to measure gun ownership by suicide rates. (And it's not mentioned here, but I believe there was another that tried to use subscriptions to gun magazines as a proxy.) This seems rather bogus to me, and I can only imagine the general derision if this kind of proxy were employed by researchers whose work supported gun ownership.
As Lambert points out, Kleck uses the suicide rate in a published paper. Is a proxy perfect? No--pretty much by definition a proxy is used to represent another variable that is unavailable, but highly correlated. Some of the time we find great proxies, other times, we try proxies and they turn out not to work. Testing them for effectiveness is a part of the social scientific process. In the case of the Duggan paper, the use of gun magazine subscriptions as a proxy was a reasonable attempt. It failed and later it was found to be non-robust (IIRC). So we throw it out and move on to better proxies. That is the social scientific process.
Reynolds seems to want to see social science as a one-time shot in which all of a sudden we find the evidence in a Eureka! paper and simply accept the findings. This is not representative of social science, or for that matter the natural sciences. Findings are tenatively accepted until they are confirmed, extended or falsified. They aren't set in stone. Some treat them that way, but the process eventually wins out.
Ridiculing an attempt that was tried and discarded is a bit strange because it demonstrates the process working. Instead of having an argument about whether a proxy would work, people tested it. Maybe this is an extension of the problem Reynolds has understanding the difference between advocacy in the legal academia versus testing hypotheses in social science. Ultimately, whether a proxy is good or not is an empirical question. Reynolds seems to view it as common sense when few people actually have the knowledge to understand what common sense would determine to be a good proxy if they do not have a fairly strong understanding of statistics. Despite his self-professed lack of understanding of statistical analysis, Reynolds makes strong claims about the accuracy of specific proxies without understanding what the process of how a proxy came to be.
One of the jokes about a prominent political scientist, William Riker, is that one knows he is important because every major finding of his was disproved. There is not a single magic bullet paper in social science, though there are papers that set the research agenda. Assuming that any single paper settles the questions as Reynolds wishes Lott's research to do is a terrible misunderstanding of science. And it points to the ultimate problem with Lott--he doesn't think he could be wrong. Instead of taking the criticisms of his data and methods and working to make them stronger based on those criticisms, Lott declares victory unilaterally.
archpundit 5/15/2003 4:12:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Who's In, Who's Out
Over at the Political State Report with the announcement that Jack Ryan is in
archpundit 5/15/2003 2:18:30 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Don't Taunt the Happy Fun Ball
I imagine Krugman is sitting behind his desk and wryly smiling after getting the reaction that TAPPED points out from Neil Cavuto.
And they call Krugman shrill.
archpundit 5/15/2003 12:54:15 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Don't ask
Back tomorrow night or Wednesday. Sigh.
archpundit 5/12/2003 11:54:15 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Vice Watch
Brooklyn and Washington Park make the news.
Brooklyn fires the officer who lost control of his vehicle and hit a suspect trying to flee. It is truly remarkable to be fired from the most corrupt and incompetent police force around.
The Washington Park follies continue with the Mayor being allowed to use an official vehicle for official duties. Glad to hear that could get settled while Washington Park considers granting two new strip club licenses. From the Post-Dispatch on April 18th,
BODY:
Washington Park, already home to the most strip clubs in the Metro East area, four, has approved permits for two more.
The village has been struggling financially, and the two clubs approved Tuesday by the village board will bring in more than $100,000 a year, officials said.
"We need the revenue," said board member Charlie Byrd, one of five board members who voted to approve the licenses. "We're a poverty-stricken village. If we don't increase the revenue, we're going to have to start laying off police officers."
The licenses were awarded to Doug Talley, owner of a Washington Park trucking company, and Stephen Romanik, whose father, Robert, is former Washington Park police chief and a one-time strip club owner.
Are these two screaming racketeering clowns to anyone else?
They should,
Romanik's father, Robert, has said in the past that he was acting as a consultant for his son's business. Robert Romanik was placed on probation in 1997 for lying to a grand jury during the Thomas Venezia gambling and racketeering investigation.
With just three days to go on a sentence of probation in the Venezia case, Romanik was charged in 1998 with bank fraud for concealing from a bank the true nature of loans used to build topless clubs in Washington Park and Centreville.
He pleaded guilty and was sentenced to 20 months in prison.
Under the plea agreement, Romanik agreed to sell his Washington Park c lub, which is now the Hustler Club.
And with all Metro East nefarious connections, unindicted co-conspirator Jerry Costello is only separated by one degree.
What adults do is their business, but the particular form of businesses in Metro East catering to adults are inextricably linked to racketeering and corruption.
archpundit 5/09/2003 3:45:20 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Edgar is Out
More at the Political State Report
archpundit 5/09/2003 9:41:11 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Political State Report
Neal Reports Edgar is up 15 in early polls
archpundit 5/07/2003 1:07:31 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Stroke the Base
Matt Yglesias points out that some of the social conservatives are unhappy with Bush over not supporting Santorum for his anti-gay comments and some are threatening to bolt.
Matt doesn't think they have anywhere to go, but Jacob Levy makes an interesting observation in the comments:
The loony U.S. Taxpayers' Party is always lurking out there-- despite its libertarianish name, it's a Reconstructionist Christian outfit. They almost managed to recruit the equally loony then- Senator Bob Smith to head their ticket in 2000. As with the pre-1999 Greens (or, for that matter, the pre-implosion Reform Party), they're just big enough to be worth taking over (from the perspective of a Nader-like outsider who wants ballot access and a party structure) and small enough that a friendly takeover would be very, very easy.
I'm not sure that is likely, but it is a good point. The US Taxpayer Party is now the Constitution Party and is full of fruit cakes. They held their convention here in Saint Louis in 1999 and I had the ironic pleasure of being stuck on Metrolink with a few of them on the way downtown. They thought Metrolink was great. Irony is truly dead.
They are wingnuts of the umpteenth order however. They would make a great home to the more extreme social conservatives. I'm not sure that Dobson isn't just pushing the administration, but you never know when one of them will jump ship.
archpundit 5/07/2003 12:23:23 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Sympathy for the Devil
It takes a lot for me to be concerned about how Matt Hale, racist hatemonger, is being treated, but the ever talented John Ashcroft pulls it off. Carol Marin reports on the legal wrangling between Hale's lawyers and the US Government.
Hale was arrested in January for plotting to kill a federal judge who had ruled against Hale's organization, the World Church of the Creator, in a copyright infringement case. I've blogged about Hale and this case and arrest here, here, here, here, and here.
The meat of the issue concerning Hale's access to his lawyers is contained in Marin's article,
When lawyers Thomas A. Durkin and Patrick W. Blegen were hired by Hale's parents to defend him, Hale's lawyers expected to be able to talk to their client. They didn't expect to get a memorandum signed by U.S. Atty. Gen. John Ashcroft. That document is 14 pages and outlines severe restrictions called Special Administrative Measures (SAMS), not just on Hale but on them too. Not to mention media restrictions as well.
What did Ashcroft say? I wish I knew. The SAMS memo said the government, is "sensitive," so it has been sealed. That's not all.
U.S. Atty. Patrick Fitzgerald, in a letter to Durkin and Blegen, said that unless they signed a document promising to abide by the SAMS memo, they would not be permitted the privileged conversations attorneys have with their clients.
In other words, Hale's attorneys couldn't talk to their client to prepare his defense unless they promised to abide by government demands they considered to be indefensible. Things, they said, like not being able to tell anyone what Hale says unless it is specifically for his defense, not being able to communicate to Hale anything the government deems "inflammatory," not being able to communicate Hale's point of view to the press.
They refused to sign.
SAMS have been around since 1996. Fitzgerald used the measures when he was in New York as a way of stopping terrorism suspects from sending "coded" messages to their disciples.
The measures have been used against convicted street gang members to prevent them from ordering hits from their prison cells.
Nobody, however, can point to SAMS being used against a pre-trial detainee in a non-terrorism case where a person is still presumed innocent until proven otherwise. Until now.
Hale is scum, but there is no excuse to deny him access to a legitimate defense.
I can't sum it up any better than Marin did:
If Hale did in fact plot to kill a federal judge, it is undeniably an assault on the judicial system.
But cynically using the war on terrorism to compromise the Constitution is as well.
archpundit 5/07/2003 11:47:09 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
More Blogroll News: Gary Hart
Hart's log will be moved to an area not for Presidential blogs as he just announced he is out of the race.
archpundit 5/06/2003 5:03:09 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Speaking of Blogrolls
I generally loathe discussions of blogrolls. I seldom have reason to link to Acidman. But these two posts are too damn funny.
What terrifies me about Den Beste's post (actually there is probably a lot, but I'm not weeding through it is the notion that someone is out there plotting revenge because they were removed from SDB's blogroll:
It isn't possible for me to please everyone. People I don't include hate me; people who were on the list and get removed resent it and make elaborate plans for revenge. But if it were long, it would be of negligible value. That's one of the problems with reverse network effect: it is precisely the exclusivity that makes it valuable, and therefore it is unavoidable that the majority be disappointed.
I'd dismiss this as paranoid rantings from one's parents' basement, but the fact that SDB exists makes me all too aware that there might be someone out there actually concerned about his blogroll.
archpundit 5/06/2003 2:44:42 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
A New Look--Additions to the Blogroll
Hey, don't go away, it is my new look!
I think this is a bit smoother and concentrates the attention on the content more. I'm looking for a non-obnoxious background if anyone has a suggestion.
I've also updated the blogroll.
Mysteriously, Chip Taylor didn't make the transfer, but he'll be back up soon.
The Daily Dystopian is a fellow Blogstudio user.
Dan Drezner was not on my previous blogroll for unknown reasons.
Brian Linse also never made the previous blogroll-- I don't know why not.
Angry Bear joins.
Beautiful Horizons joins up and was excluded previously for unknown reasons.
Blog Baby was mentioned yesterday.
Border's Union was added out of reciprocity. We'll see how interesting it is.
Promising Carl With A K is added.
DataFood is yummy.
GeekPol is in the house.
Mac Diva's venture is here.
Pain Pill provides some Chicago info.
Julian Sanches is finally added.
Tacitus makes an appearance.
Unlearned Hand can be found here as well as at the top of Ted Barlow's page.
Tim Lambert gets a permanent link in the watch section.
I dropped a bunch--either sites that don't need linkage or don't update frequently or I simply didn't visit. If you link to me and I don't have you listed, let me know. I will, in most cases, link back.
archpundit 5/06/2003 11:29:57 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Council of Conservative Citizens does Cinco de Mayo
Gordon Baum and his band of racist ne'er do wells showed up to protest immigration at Cinco de Mayo at, I kid you not, West County Shopping Center.
Wait a sec.
Okay, really, it was in Des Peres.
A note of caution--these aren't pretty people.
A couple theories here:
1) They thought they were protesting the French immigrants in Des Peres
2) Because they are inbred they assume Cherokee Street is full of Native Americans
3) They figured the hard working and wonderfully talented immigrants around Cherokee might kick their ass
archpundit 5/06/2003 10:48:03 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Is Dean Just a Press Darling
Or will he have legs after some initial success? Dean's blog points towards an LA Times article that suggests he might be ahead of the curve due to his electronic organization.">article that suggests he might be ahead of the curve due to his electronic organization.
One has to wonder whether Dean has taken Carter's strategy and had it updated for 2004. So far, the campaign is an impressive organization of openness and close contact with supporters instead of having the media act as the prime contact. It performs well with Kerry and others fighting media sniping contests from Drudge and the others.
The challenge is reaching voters not connected and my understanding is that his organizing in Iowa is going relatively well. The problem is that he won't get labor in Iowa and so he won't have the foot soldiers to win. He doesn't seem to be attempting for a clear win there though and so his strategy might do well enough.
Dean's Iowa campaign needs to be closest to Bradley's. Bradley relied on the liberal goo goos of Iowa and college towns to provide a counterweight against the organization and labor support Gore got. Dean has three advantages Bradley did not.
First, Iowa's vote will be split in several directions. Gephardt, Kerry, and Edwards will all get some support there and to do well won't require as much as against the siting Vice-President. Gore cornered nearly all of the organization people and put Bradley in a hole. Bradley did very well in a caucus where he did not have a major union behind him. This year at least two campaigns will split labor.
Two, the process is going to be different with several states in-line after New Hampshire and while Iowa and New Hampshire are still important, they will be less important. Not winning the first two won't have the effect it had on Bradley as long as Dean does well.
Third, Bradley spent too much time in Iowa, but he had no choice given he was the only other candidate. With a crowded field, the press won't kill Dean if he spends less time in Iowa.
Of course, if Kerry is adopting the Gore Strategy we can expect to see a variety of stupid tricks such as the walking corn cob and disruption of rallies.
archpundit 5/05/2003 5:22:42 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
A new Blog
I'll be introducing a new blogroll soon, but one will be Blog Baby who spends a lot of time taking on environmental issues. I have seldom had time to here even though it is one of my prime interests, so take a look at her site. She has some interesting links to multiple use privileging extractive corporations over recreation and other uses.
archpundit 5/05/2003 2:57:41 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Repeat After Me:
You Can't Discriminate Based on the Content of the Speech even if the Secret Service says so.
This is quite disturbing and Andrew Sullivan even pointed it out last week.
Essentially the Secret Service is getting local police agencies to move demonstrators to free speech zones out of view of the President and the people supporting the President, but not doing the same for those who are supporters of the President or demonstrating about another issue. You can't do that.
While you might be able to quarantine everyone--why should we? The security threat isn't that great and there is nothing wrong with dissent. As the article points out, a smart assassin wouldn't be advertising the dislike of the President--even a dumb one could figure that out.
I talked with one of the arrestees and surprisingly, they weren't looking to be arrested in an act of civil disobedience, they were literally trying to be seen around the event. In fact, they were quite surprised at the system set-up to control war protesters while other protesters were ignored.
While I question the efficacy of such protests, they must be allowed. Even worse for the localities is that they will lose monetarily if these cases go to court. So will the Secret Service, but it can afford that penalty, many local police departments cannot.
What is even more amusing is that in St. Charles a few people are charged with trespassing on private land while also being charged with blocking a public highway. A judge with half a brain would see the contradiction, but in St. Charles they don't pick judges on that criteria and thus, the charges were allowed even though they contradict each other.
archpundit 5/05/2003 2:47:47 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
So Poshard was Wishful Thinking
Bernard Schoenburg points out that Poshard never had any intention of running.
?I haven?t even considered the Senate seat at this point,? Poshard told me, adding he has no intention of doing so and has politely given that message to people who have encouraged him to run. Incumbent U.S.
Translation--Downstate labor and organizations are still in Hynes' corner.
archpundit 5/05/2003 2:23:48 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Edgar Alternatives
Up at the Political State Report
archpundit 5/05/2003 2:20:37 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Harold
A reader pointed me towards a great tribute to Harold Washington from This American Life. Take a listen. Especially interesting are comments by Eugene Sawyer (IIRC) about Harold's electability if he had been white. Since he had significant tax problems in the late 1960 and early 1970s it points to a difference in how black and white politicians were judged at the time. I would argue this has changed over times, but it is an interesting point.
An Illinois political operative who was white, but had worked for statewide black candidates once told me that white America doesn't understand what it takes to make it as a black candidate with the African-American community. It was constant skirting of the law to appease different interests and inevitably this led to problems with the general electorate.
But this isn't really different than other ethnic minorities, it just happens during a time when corruption isn't as tolerated handicapping some politicians rising as fast as other ethnicities did back when corruption was all a part of the process. Men like Washington got stuck between two generations, but came out okay. And now we see a new generation of those like Barack Obama who are clean as a whistle.
archpundit 5/05/2003 1:46:09 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Calling Pat Quinn
Perhaps the Phone Cops have him under arrest. From the Capitol Fax:
The festivities begin today when a special meeting of the two legislative committees which deal with Telco issues to hear testimony on a proposal by SBC to double the wholesale rate it charges its competitors. That's what you call clout. You don't see House and Senate committees meeting in joint session very often - if ever.
The committees could vote on the SBC bill as early as Wednesday, with floor votes as early as Friday, if the bills pass. Wednesday is also the day that the ICC will decide whether to allow the company into the long-distance market.
So, why is SBC so bound and determined to raise its wholesale rates? The company insists that the rates the ICC allows it to charge are below the cost of providing the service. . . .
[I]t would stand to reason that if SBC could raise its wholesale DSL rate, it could accomplish two things: 1) Price the resellers out of a bargain-driven market; and 2) Subsidize its new, lower price with more money from the remaining resellers. Just a thought.
archpundit 5/05/2003 1:31:06 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Lateness
Ugh--the cold is almost over and I'm back to regular schedule. That being said, Mark Kleiman has the definitive post on the most recent Lott shenanigans.
Mark makes an important point that I've tried to keep in front of the discussion, but it gets lost in Lott's evasions and bizarre claims. I originally was very wary of concealed carry laws because of concerns with potential increases in violence. Being a cyclist, I have enjoyed a fair share of road rage incidents and thinking of those morons as armed (even though many probably are already) is scary. After reviewing the literature on this issue, it seems to me that concealed carry laws are not likely to increase or decrease crime and I have become primarily agnostic on the question. And the chances of dealing with any armed idiot probably isn't that much different with or without permits. In fact, the training might increase the number of idiots who think before they act given they know their legal responsibilities.
Ayres and Donohue argue there is a small increase, but I find it hard to believe that is from increasing legal concealed carry permit holders. I may well be wrong, but I think any judgement on this issue should await further research. They point out some decent theoretical reasons why that might be so, but to eliminate multicollinearity problems in such data sets is nearly impossible.
Go read Tim Lambert for the full updates including a bit on weighting that really calls into question Lott's truthfullness, well again.
More interesting is the response of others to some of the most recent allegations. Reynolds has a very funny reaction:
By way of full disclosure, I went to law school with Ayres and Donohue, and regard them both as honest, straight-up guys notwithstanding that they have a political position that in many cases would be different from mine. Unlike some of Lott's other critics, these guys are real scholars, writing in the Stanford Law Review, which gives their criticism considerable weight. I am, however, entirely incompetent to judge the underlying dispute on its merits, and hope that people who have the relevant expertise will weigh in.
Reynolds doesn't have the ability to evaluate the work on the merits and so he continues to argue it by way of political positions. As I said before, " They assume everyone is a hack and so the point of a panel like this is that hacks from both sides should be included."
Reynolds argues by reputation and not evidence which completely misses the point of social science--though this cluelessness isn't reserved to him as Kieran Healy points out. The arguments Kieran is addressing are especially disturbing given that much of McArdle's argument could have been made by a creationist.
archpundit 5/05/2003 12:31:47 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Note To Bill Bennett
When they say the slots are loose--they are fibbing. As has been pointed out at just about every site, Bennett didn't come close to even if he is playing slots and video poker. Both games pay out poorly because, well, that's how they are designed. Go figure--casinos are in the business of making money.
David Hogberg makes a good point about whether Bennett has a problem:
It reminds of the shock that some people expressed when it was revealed that Michael Jordan lost $10,000 gambling on one hole in golf. As Mike Royko pointed out, that was pocket change for Jordan. If you make ten times what you gamble every time you sneeze, it doesn?t matter how much you gamble.
I don't know if the guy has a problem or not. But his inability to connect this to other forms of entertainment that he screams about is amazingly hypocritical. I'm not a big fan of strip clubs or pot--indeed, I find a good game of baccarat more fun than either of those, that is an individual choice or should be. My choice of games should be interesting to those of you who know gaming. My goal is to lose a little so that the free/cheap drinks pretty much make the evening a wash with what I'd normally spend. I could play blackjack, but frankly, my card counting skills go to hell when I'm drinking.
archpundit 5/05/2003 11:48:19 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Chick: Don't Worry, Be Happy
Jack Chick continues his paranoid rantings in cartoon form with this gem that pretty much attacks everything except his particular brand of premillennial dispensationalism. Of course, he sells it as a positive message:
The Checklist
United Nations--check
Catholics and Idol Worship AKA The Whore of Babylon and the Pope in particular--Check
Main Stream Protestantism--Check
Bible Colleges--Check
Masonry--Check
Sodomy--Check
Islam--Check
Billy Graham--Check
Evolution didn't make the cut this time.
By most accounts, Chick's Heaven is going to be mighty small.
The Bloviator feeds my Chick amusement with an article from LA Magazine.
One terrifying fact:
With more than 500 million copies of his 142 books in print, including translations in more than 100 languages, Chick is the world's most published living author.
Welcome to the face of America!
Just how paranoid is the man:
In 1979, Chick and Carter embarked on a series of Crusaders comics about the life of Alberto Rivera. According to the comics, Rivera was a former Jesuit priest who had left the Catholic Church in 1967 after discovering the Vatican's plans for world domination (as well as its involvement in the Holocaust, the Jonestown massacre, and the rise of communism). Christian bookstores refused to stock them, and Catholic organizations claimed that Rivera had never been a Jesuit priest. In 1981, Chick quit the Christian Booksellers Association, stating that the Catholic Church had infiltrated the organization.
During this period, Chick became involved with a number of questionable characters. In 1984, he publicly supported the ministry of Tony Alamo, an L.A.-based cult leader who has been accused over the years of tax evasion, felony child abuse, and the theft of his late wife's corpse. In 1978, he based his antiwitchcraft comic Spellbound on the allegations of "former Grand Druid" Johnny Todd, who claimed that Satanists throughout the United States were routinely engaging in human sacrifice. Todd was later exposed as a fraud. Meanwhile, pastors and churches continued to denounce Chick and his tracts. "The churches thought he was just another crackpot," says Richard Lee, a former minister and longtime friend of Chick. "I think that hurt his feelings a lot."
Despite the criticism, Chick kept up his anti-Catholic rants. According to Fuller Theological Seminary evangelism professor Chapman Clark, as mainstream Evangelicals in the 1950s moved away from fire-and-brimstone tactics to a softer approach to soul gathering, Chick's message became stuck in time. "The tracts really reflect the church's separatist, we/they mentality of the '50s," says Clark. "I don't think that [the tracts] have evolved with a sensitivity to where the culture has gone." While Chick managed to skewer just about all of the world's major religions over the years, he saved his most hate-filled language for the Vatican, a reflection of the fundamentalist movement's long-standing animosity toward the Catholic Church. For many of Chick's ilk, the Inquisition is recent history, the existence of the Illuminati indisputable fact.
To add to it, he thinks the Jesuits are out to get him:
Everyone who has met Chick has his own theories about his reclusive nature. "He really is a shy person," says Lee. Kuersteiner feels that Chick genuinely fears for his life: "He has stated in the past that the Jesuits would gladly see him dead if they could arrange it."
The JESUITS!
But there lies the contradiction--if the 'Whore of Babylon' really was that powerful, they could have done away with him some time ago.
archpundit 5/05/2003 11:24:03 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
STL---Shorter Tim Lambert
"Lott withdrew his name to protest this one word change in a 120 page article."
Yeah. Back tonight or tomorrow.
archpundit 5/01/2003 12:34:24 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Edgar and Poshard
Edgar and Poshard over at the Political State Report
archpundit 4/29/2003 1:13:12 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
What Would He Think Of His City?
Twenty years ago today, Harold Washington became Mayor of the Great City of Chicago. He forever changed the politics of Chicago by fighting and winning against the Machine. An imperfect, but gifted man, Washington set the stage for Chicago's resurgence. He broke the iron grip of the machine and even with Daley's operation, it will never be able to silence voices as it once did. To be sure, Daley's operation sweeps too many problems under the rug and has too much power, but the sheer futility of fighting the Machine before Washington is no comparison.
Strangely, an unknown Republican gadfly running a racist campaign against Washington was Washington's best commercial. Epton's campaign theme was "Before it is too late." That campaign slogan sent the message home to black and latino voters that there was hope and Chicago was electric with anticipation.
John Kass recently asked what Washington would think of Chicago today?
Black politics is controlled, the clergy appeased, given vacant lots for a dollar and other development deals. Hispanics are hammered into line with City Hall's Hispanic Democratic Organization. Whites seek admission for their children into special magnet schools in a two-tiered school system. Business owners are terrified of angering City Hall.
Yes, it is efficient. Yes, it is neat.
It is expensive. It is silent.
I wonder what Harold would say.
First, he'd smile and he'd tell the truth. Then he'd tell the Jacksons to kiss his ass.
Exactly 14 years after Washington's inauguration Mike Royko passed away. Before Washington ever took office, Royko wrote the best summary of Washington's tenure as Mayor:
Give Washington a break
Chicago Sun-Times, Feb. 24,1983
So I told Uncle Chester: Don't worry, Harold Washington doesn't want to marry your sister.
That might seem like a strange thing to have to tell somebody about the man who will be the next mayor of Chicago. I never had to tell Uncle Chester that Mayor Daley or Mayor Bilandic wouldn't marry his sister.
On the other hand, no other mayor, in the long and wild-eyed history of Chicago, has had one attribute of Washington.
He's black. It appears to be a waste of space to bother pointing that out, since every Chicagoan knows it.
But you can't write about Harold Washington's victory without taking note of his skin color.
Yes, he is black. And that fact is going to create a deep psychological depression in many of the white, ethnic, neighborhood people who read this paper in the morning.
Eeek! The next mayor of Chicago is going to be a black man!
Let's all quiver and quake.
Oh, come on. Let's all act like sensible, adult human beings.
Let us take note of a few facts about Harold Washington.
First, Washington was born in an era when they still lynched people in some parts of the United States. By ``lynched,'' I mean they took a black man out of his home, put a rope around his neck and murdered him by hanging. Then they went home to bed knowing they were untouchable because the sheriff helped pull the rope.
Washington suffered through it. God knows how he did that. I think that most of us--white, privileged, the success road wide open to us--might have turned into haters.
Washington didn't turn into a hater. Instead, he developed a capacity for living with his tormenters and understanding that in the flow of history there are deep valleys and heady peaks.
He fought in World War II. Yes, blacks did that, although you don't see them in many John Wayne movies. He went to college and got a degree. Then he went to Northwestern University's law school, at a time when blacks were as common as alligators there.
Had Washington been white, he would have tied in with a good law firm, sat behind his desk, made a good buck and today would be playing golf at a private country club.
But for a black man, even one as bright as Washington, an NU law degree meant that he was just about smart enough to handle divorce cases for impoverished blacks.
Being no dummy, he gravitated toward politics. And the Democratic Party. It may have been pseudo-liberal, but the Democratic Party did offer a black lawyer a chance, meager and piddling as it might be.
And he went somewhere. Come on, admit that, at least, even while you brood about a black man becoming your next mayor.
He became a state legislator. Then a United States congressman.
I'm still enough of an idealist to think that most people who become members of Congress are at least a cut or two above the rest of us.
And even his critics say that as a state legislator and as a U.S. congressman, he was pretty good.
So I ask you: If Jane Byrne is qualified to be mayor of Chicago after holding no higher office than city consumer affairs commissioner, what is the rap on Harold Washington?
And I also ask you: If Richard M. Daley is qualified to be mayor after being a state legislator and state's attorney of Cook County, what is so unthinkable about a man holding the mayor's office after being a state legislator and a U.S. congressman?
The fact is, Washington's credentials for this office exceed those of Byrne, Bilandic, Richard J. Daley, Martin Kennelly, Ed Kelly, Anton Cermak and most of those who have held the office of mayor of Chicago.
Byrne was a minor bureaucrat. Bilandic's highest office was alderman. Richard J. Daley was the county clerk. Kennelly was a moving company executive. Kelly was a Sanitary District payroller. Cermak was a barely literate but street-smart, hustler.
All became mayor. And nobody was horrified.
But this morning, the majority of Chicagoans--since this city's majority is white--are gape-jawed at the prospect of Representative Washington becoming mayor.
Relax, please. At least for the moment. There is time to become tense and angry when he fouls up as mayor--as anybody in that miserable job inevitably will do.
Until he fouls up, though, give him a chance. The man is a United States citizen, with roots deeper than most of us have in this country. He is a 60-year-old Chicagoan who has been in politics and government most of his life.
He is a smart, witty, politically savvy old pro. He is far more understanding of the fears and fantasies of Chicago whites than we are of the frustrations of Chicago blacks.
The city isn't going to slide into the river. The sun will come up today and tomorrow, and your real estate values won't collapse. History shows that real estate values in a town like Chicago go up and up, over the long haul, no matter who is mayor.
He'll fire a police superintendent, hire a new one, and the earth won't shake under us.
He might hire some jerks. I haven't seen a mayor who hasn't. They don't learn. Two days before Lady Jane was first elected, I wrote: ``How she does will depend on the kind of people she surrounds herself with.''
She surrounded herself with Charlie Swibel and other bums and got what she deserved.
If Washington is smart, which I think he is, he'll surround himself with the very best talents and minds available. And they're available. If not, we'll survive and we'll throw him out.
Meanwhile, don't get hysterical. As I wrote four years ago, if we survived Bilandic, we can survive Jane Byrne.
And if we survived Jane, we easily can survive Harold Washington.
Who knows, we might even wind up liking him.
archpundit 4/29/2003 10:55:53 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Pseudophedrine is my friend
And not for making meth. I'll be back Wednesday or Thursday with a lot to catch up on.
While I'm gone--go to Tim Lambert's. There will be a quiz.
archpundit 4/28/2003 10:02:34 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Santorum Hasn't Denied the Quote Has He?
An interesting tidbit from Agape Press:
Meanwhile, Fox News reports that some Republican sources are raising concerns about the Associated Press reporter who first quoted Santorum and continues to report on the conflict. Her name is Lara Jakes Jordan. Her husband is Jim Jordan, a former official with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee who now heads Democratic Senator John Kerry's campaign for president.
I haven't heard any denials of the quotes--did I miss something or is Fox News trying to smear the reporter? It is especially interesting given the reporters comments during the interview:
AP: I'm sorry, I didn't think I was going to talk about "man on dog" with a United States senator, it's sort of freaking me out.
To me, the reporter stopped him before he went too far. Often, reporters talk about the urge to get a public official to shut up when they venture into stupid land. My sense is the reporter did exactly that above and redirected Santorum away from a huge gaffe so attacking her would be strange to say the least.
archpundit 4/24/2003 11:28:31 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Satire
Reynolds has a new flack for himself--and it is perfect. Truly perfect. Go now, I'll be here when you get back. It is better than Lileks!
archpundit 4/24/2003 11:04:45 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Correcting
I'm thinking we should nickname Tim Lambert 'Tenacious T' for his work exposing the multitude of issues surrounding John Lott and gun stats. (a modification of Ted Barlow's joke)
Tim Lambert notes in comments below a couple issues:
First, the mission statement has not changed. Kopel and Reynolds just misrepresented it in their original article.
Groan...I try and give Reynolds the benefit of the doubt, but apparently even simple issues are too tough to get right.
Second, the committee is supposed to evaluate the existing research, so it is better if Kleck is not on the committee so that the committee can objectively examine Kleck's work. (It is hard to be objective about your own work.) They have actually had Kleck talk to them twice.
This is a good point and really it fits well with the idea of what I wrote earlier. Given they are speaking to Kleck (twice), I think that may be the best strategy. Kleck, like most social scientists, tends to view his work in the best light.
Third, I agree that Civiletti should not be on the panel. He actually resigned from the panel without ever it would seem attending a meeting.
ROTFL--well there goes the boogeyman.
One should be skeptical of boards and the such, but the cynical view that Reynolds and Kopel are promoting fundamentally misunderstands how research should be done. I'm not naive enough to believe that the ideal always happens, but ideological balance is a silly mantra in this case. It may well be that the Board does a poor job, but there are many explanations why that might or might not happen--only one of which is ideology.
Check out today's update over at Tim's. He comments on Reynolds' update concerning a gentleman who claims Lott would never be invited. Reynolds should be feeling foolish today given that Lott presented to the panel on January 16th of 2002.
The hint that this guy was a prankster or kook should have come from this comment:
(I should state that the study director was a typical liberal type - goatee, whiny voice, upset at the stolen election - much like most of the people I encountered there (except the goatee...)
And of course, everyone is still waiting for evidence that Steven Levitt is anti-gun--or that everyone besides James Q. Wilson is 'entirely anti-gun'.
archpundit 4/24/2003 10:35:11 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Column Trainwreck
Joyce Morrison jumps in with both feet over at the Illinois Leader.
I'm not even sure where to begin, so go read it and be amused.
archpundit 4/23/2003 3:58:53 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Weighting
And that isn't a good thing. Instead of trying to explain what has already been done relatively well, check out Tim Lambert's posts on the problems with Lott's weighting.
The essence is regardless of how Lott did this, Lott screwed it up. At some point Lott is just chasing his own tail.
archpundit 4/23/2003 3:36:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Where is the Movement on the Burge Case?
The Special Prosecutor in the John Burge case has not made any visible progress and some are starting to ask questions about it. Burge is a former Chicago Police Commander who allegedly tortured a number of suspects:
Burge's investigative methods were said to be brutal and sadistic. During the late 1970s and the 1980s dozens of African-Americans detained at Area 2 reported that they were suffocated with plastic bags, forced to engage in "games" of Russian roulette, had electric shocks applied to their ears or their testicles and were held against heated radiators and burned.
While the Burge case is a tough one due to physical evidence being largely non-existent and the passage to time the authors bring up important points:
But what has the special prosecutor accomplished in the year since his appointment? And, in particular, why has that prosecutor (from all appearances) failed to use his grand jury subpoena power to force police witnesses--including Burge and his underlings--to tell what they know about whether Area 2 police officers tortured citizens in their custody and whether they have lied and covered up the torture?
If the special prosecutor would aggressively use his grand jury subpoena power, he might succeed in unraveling the questions surrounding Burge. We have no doubt that there are many good police officers who deplore those crimes. With assurance that an aggressive, no-nonsense investigation is underway, some of them may be willing to breach the police "code of silence" and reveal new information about Burge, his alleged practices and how secrets were kept. This investigation will be a failure if Egan does no more than methodically collect documents and ask victims to repeat their accounts of being tortured. The point here is to prosecute the torturers. If that does not happen, Egan will have muffed an important, historic opportunity to do justice.
archpundit 4/23/2003 2:22:57 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
If they're good enough to die over there, they're good enough to
be American citizens. Ed Burke is starting an initiative to grant citizenship to those who serve the United States in the armed forces.
archpundit 4/23/2003 2:13:41 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Organized Crime won't miss Peter Fitzgerald
As Carol Marin points out, Patrick Fitzgerald, Peter's handpicked US Attorney, has targeted a series of mob related deaths.
One of the little-known facts about Sen. Fitzgerald is that he is a walking, talking encyclopedia on the Chicago Outfit. He has not only read, but can quote from Ovid Demaris' 1969 book "Captive City" even though it has been out of print for years, "Captive City" is a bible of sorts for FBI agents and federal prosecutors who work the mob squads. It is a chronicle of how organized crime insinuated itself into every Chicago institution from government to the courts to the labor unions since Al Capone.
The blind eye that has too often existed in Chicago hurts union members the worst and this is no exception:
Joey Lombardo Jr. also has the feds' attention. As an official of the Laborers Union, he is charged in a civil federal racketeering case with allowing organized crime's influence into his union, a charge he denies. The union, as the result of a consent decree, is working with federal monitors to throw Lombardo Jr. out. As a civil matter, it has no formal connection to the criminal investigation of his father and yet, in a unique agreement, federal grand jury material can be shared between the U.S. attorney's office and union monitors.
Fitzgerald had all sorts of annoying traits, but one annoying trait should be celebrated: Absolute unswerving stubborness on corruption.
archpundit 4/23/2003 2:03:29 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
New Rest Stop
For $7 million, $1 million per mile away from an interestate
archpundit 4/23/2003 1:41:15 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Evolution Week Here
And Joe Conason adds to the fray by mentioning the other fruity ideas that Santorum espouses such as creationism
If the Education Board of Ohio does not include intelligent design in the new teaching standards, many students will be denied a first-rate science education. Many will be left behind.
Nice left behind reference, huh?
ID isn't science, it is creationism wrapped in a new stinky package. Ken Miller also points out, Santorum and others lied about what was in the bill during the debates over ID in Ohio.
Lying for Jesus is quite typical for creationists and quite offensive to those of us who take our faith seriously. In that debate Ken Miller has been one of the good guys. Outside of Talk Origins he has one of the best evolution resource pages
archpundit 4/23/2003 12:43:36 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Whining
Reynolds continues to insist people don't understand his point that the panel is stacked with anti-gun advocates.
He and Kopel had three good points in their article. The first is that the original mission statement concerned only the detrimental effects of gun availability. As Reynolds points out, this was changed.
Second, no one on the panel has done significant research into the benefits of gun ownership is included. Gary Kleck seems like a natural for this panel. Kleck isn't perfect, but he is one of the few researchers with such a background and generally is serious about research design and quantitative analysis. While his work isn't perfect, no one's is. For critiques of his work, see Tim Lambert's archive of Gun Control Postings.
Third, Benjamin Civiletti appears to have no expertise in the social science aspect of understanding crime. He should not be on the panel.
The rest of their complaints rather telling of how they view social science as a enterprise of confirming one's biases instead of actual research. First, despite the amount of information out there debunking Lott's statistical findings, they say:
Nor is there any agenda for "strategies" to improve public safety by fostering gun ownership and carrying by law-abiding people ? even though social-science data from John Lott and others overwhelmingly show that this strategy really does reduce crime.
As frequent readers here have been subjected to my rants on this subject, Lott's work does nothing of the sort. Reynolds has in the past always allowed himself an out that he can't speak for the statistics. Here is news for Reynolds--he does in the paragraph above. If he doesn't have the expertise than he either needs to get that expertise or stop schilling for Lott.
Kopel and Reynolds are poor journalists as well. Describing Levitt as 'rabidly anti-gun' was silly from an anonymous quote. It added little to the story and a better way in which to demonstrate bias would be to demonstrate where he has expressed anti-gun ideas. Kopel tries to in the Corner by providing the text of a letter to Levitt written soon after the original article.
I'm not arguing (at least not in this post), that Levitt's statements are incorrect, and they are certainly not "rabid." But if a person selecting panelists for the NAS study were looking for panelists who might be expected to see benefits from reducing "easy availability of guns," it would have been reasonable to pick Levitt. There is nothing logically inconsistent with a scholar favoring gun control to address the very large problem of criminal homicide with guns, while also recognizing that the magnitude of the problem of fatal gun accidents involving children is not nearly as large as the media imply.
What Kopel misses is that a conclusion based on evidence isn't necessarily anti-gun even if it points out the negative impacts a gun may have. If the researcher is good and a bit lucky, they have established a relationship that theoretically represents the relationship in the real world. While I'm not naive enough to believe all social science research is done that way all of the time, one can hope--and Steve Levitt's reputation, as Brad DeLong points out, is quite strong. Believe it or not, some researchers actually test hypotheses to determine if they fit the evidence.
But the continue the inuendo against the other members as well:
Most of them have reputations as being antigun.
What does that mean? If one wants to argue their work is inaccurate, that would be one thing. But if the work is strong and their conclusions demonstrate negative impacts of guns, that is not 'anti-gun'--it is pro-empirical evidence. Asking people around here, both Rick Rosenfeld and Linda Cottler have excellent reputations as good scientists.
Perhaps it is their background as law professors that is the problem. While law journals serve their purpose, I'm a bit mystified by this almost post modern view of social science Kopel and Reynolds seem to be promoting. A fair panel is one that examines the issue from a social scientific view--not just a balance of pro and con. I understand the funding throws up flags, but attacking the professional credibility of social scientists without any evidence other than anonymous sources and simple assertion:
The closest that anyone on the panel gets to not being entirely antigun is James Q. Wilson
Kopel and Reynolds don't seem to grasp that there claim of bias in the context they are using it is a claim of professional incompetence and an attack on every members', except Wilson's, character. The level of cynicism reaches the silly level here. They assume everyone is a hack and so the point of a panel like this is that hacks from both sides should be included. Fortunately, everyone is not a hack and this isn't a post-modern universe. Hacks should be excluded from such a panel--including Civiletti and Lott. When Reynolds complains that DeLong does not understand Reynolds' argument, it is Reynolds who is confused. Reynolds thinks this panel is similar to the Kass Panel on Bioethics. A panel studying ethics is far different than a panel studying methodology. It isn't the point to ideologically or philosophically balance the panel, but to methodologically balance the panel.
The essential problem that Kopel and Reynolds identify is that most serious researchers haven't found a lot of evidence that easy gun access has a positive influence on society. Some of this is due to asking the wrong questions. Kleck is one of the few researchers to serious tackle the question of defensive gun use. Most of the interesting questions around gun availability and use revolve around the impact on crime--and thus the picture is of negative impacts. The bias isn't political as it is question based. The interesting questions promote study of issues that promote negative findings because they study negative phenomenon such a crime. The best people to think about that problem are those who understand the complex research design issues of crime and pathology--exactly the kind of people on the panel. Looking at the panel membership, I'm certain they understand the problem far better than people like Lott who seem to be primarily interested in schilling their findings to make a buck.
And this brings the question back to who else they would like to see on the panel. Given Lott's incompetence, only Gary Kleck seems like a natural. Who else works in the area, is competent and has found positive impacts?
I'm willing to give Reynolds a free pass on the anonymous quote (though not on using it in the first place)---it would appear he got used. If that is the case, John Lott should start to consider how burning such bridges with his most ardent supporters will affect his future support. Then again, it may not matter to Lott, if I'm correct. I believe his work is motivated to provide him a cushy lifestyle supported by those who want his findings to be correct. He wouldn't be the first person in academia or related enterprises to do so, but he sure seems to have an especially strong knack for it.
archpundit 4/23/2003 11:41:21 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Andrew Sullivan's Beer Goggles
Cleared this morning as he realized a significant portion of Republican Party thinks sex lives need to be regulated.
To be fair, Sullivan's writings on this are exceptionally clear, coherent and correct. However, given the Christian Coalition has been trying to bring the Republican Party to the right for the last 25 years and has been moderately successful, this shouldn't surprise anyone. While no party is free of homophobes, the Republican Party is the primary destination these days. Many Republicans aren't homophobes--including Jim Edgar as someone who I've been talking a lot about. However, being surprised that Santorum or a number of other Republicans believe in regulation of people's sex lives is terribly naive.
archpundit 4/23/2003 10:00:54 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Heineken?
Heineken? Fuck that shit! Pabst Blue Ribbon!
The Washington Post is a bit behind in this story, but let me plug Stag as the best cheap beer around. Start with about 10 Newcastles and then switch to Stag and you'll never know the difference.
archpundit 4/22/2003 4:49:22 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Senator Hatch Meet Senator Santorum
Santorum displayed his usual level of bigotry with his comments yesterday:
"If the Supreme Court says that you have the right to consensual (gay) sex within your home, then you have the right to bigamy, you have the right to polygamy, you have the right to incest, you have the right to adultery. You have the right to anything. All of those things are antithetical to a healthy, stable, traditional family. And that's sort of where we are in today's world, unfortunately. It all comes from, I would argue, this right to privacy that doesn't exist, in my opinion, in the United States Constitution."
Not only was it bigoted, but as Sullivan points out:
It's about whether conservatism is about freedom from government or subjugation to it.
So Santorum thinks sex lives should be regulated? No surprise. The question is what does one of his colleagues think:
"I'm not here to justify polygamy," he said. "All I can say is, I know people in Hildale who are polygamists who are very fine people. You come and show me evidence of children being abused there and I'll get involved. Bring the evidence to me."
Hatch said he could not take unsubstantiated claims and enforce law, and he would not "sit here and judge anybody just because they live differently than me. There will be laws on the books, but these are very complicated issues," Hatch said.
Who is closer to right? Hatch. Polygamy is a difficult subject. Most often in practic polygamy involves exploitation of women. Young women--especially minors who have no business being married off and it essentially is a form of child abuse in such cases.
In theory, the government shouldn't be regulating how a religion decides to practice and having multiple spouses is not necessarily exploitive and as such the state should stay the hell out of it. Steve Chapman has made this point previously:
. The argument for allowing polygamy has much in common with the argument for letting gays enter into matrimony. If consenting adults who prefer polygamy can do everything else a husband and wife can do?have sex, live together, buy property, and bring up children jointly?why should they be prohibited from legally committing themselves to the solemn duties that attach to marriage? How is society worse off if these informal relationships are formalized and pushed toward permanence?
And about the abuses:
ritics have a ready answer: because polygamy, as currently (and surreptitiously) practiced in Utah and neighboring states has been rife with abuses?including forced marriages, sexual exploitation of minors, and welfare dependency. Green is a prime example: He married one of his wives when she was 13, and he was convicted not only of bigamy but of criminal nonsupport for failing to repay the state more than $50,000 in welfare benefits for his children. Other male polygamists have been convicted of child abuse and incest. A Salt Lake Tribune investigation found that a polygamous community on the Utah-Arizona border has one of the highest rates of welfare participation in the West.
But such unsavory conduct stems partly from the fact that when polygamy is illegal, the only people likely to practice it are nut cases and people with a deep-seated contempt for authority. Plural marriage, in this group, may be just one of many expressions of aggressive noncomformity. If the practice were legally permitted, on the other hand, it would be more likely to attract people with a strong law-abiding disposition. The need to stay under the radar of law enforcement agencies also breeds abuse by discouraging its victims from going to the authorities. Legalizing the practice would bring polygamists out from underground, making it easier to combat the real evils found in some plural marriages. Those who persist in such abuses can be prosecuted along with all the other pedophiles and welfare frauds?the vast majority of whom, it will surprise you to learn, are non-polygamous.
Strangely enough, Orrin Hatch has figured out a reasonable civil liberties position--if only he would extend it to gays and lesbians as well.
archpundit 4/22/2003 3:24:16 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Creepy
A bunch of Congressman living together is creepy enough, but the strange group subsidizing them is even creepier.
archpundit 4/21/2003 6:17:50 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Pete Wilson: the Return
While I find it hard to dislike anyone called a libertine at the Republican National Convention:
''Abortion is murder!'' Ken Scott of Denver screamed at California Governor Pete Wilson, Massachusetts Governor William Weld and Maine Senator Olympia Snowe. ''Why are you part of the Republican Party when you're breaking God's law? You won't be able to run and hide from God!''
''You guys are libertines,'' one pro-choice advocate shouted back. ''Get out of our party!''
Pete Wilson carries a lot of baggage. Between energizing the Latino base and having a nice target painted on his back for his administration's handing the energy system's regulation over to the energy industry, he would probably not be the shoo-in some think.
What is this--find the Republican moderate to run?
Of course, the Club for Growth might take a dim view of him and Edgar.
Link via Political Wire. Taegan also addresses his linking to pseudonymous bloggers . I obviously agree, but another thing to keep in mind is that bloggers mostly point to articles by known members of the press and add context and commentary. I do very little actual reporting on the blog as do the others he mentions so the pseudonymity matters even less.
archpundit 4/21/2003 6:12:30 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
LuntzSpeak
From the good folks in Congressman Nadler's office, I was forwarded a link to LuntzSpeak.
That's Dr. Luntz to those unfamiliar with the pretentious dork.
archpundit 4/21/2003 5:33:00 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Man And Dinosaur Together
At Ken Ham's Answers in Genesis Creation Museum. I'm not kidding.
"Plans for the interior of the museum are taking shape, as well. As soon as guests walk through the front doors, realistic, life- size dioramas will provide a snapshot of an early world -- including Adam with dinosaurs -- that will challenge evolutionary worldviews," according to AiG's Mark Looy.
archpundit 4/21/2003 5:30:40 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Fitzgerald and Edgar
Over at the Political State Report
Fitzgerald Round-Up
Next!
archpundit 4/21/2003 5:26:46 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Giggle
an extremist, a supporter of every American enemy since he was potty trained like Eric Alterman
archpundit 4/21/2003 5:22:50 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Nina Simone Passed Away
At her home in France
archpundit 4/21/2003 5:00:07 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Evolution of the Inane
The best demonstration that evolution is incorrect is the continued persistence of creationists and the more recent fruit cakes in the Intelligent Design camp. Today, Robert Bartley strangely swerves into a discussion of evolution. A discussion that is horribly confused.
Bartley claims:
On net, religious impulses are probably growing. September 11 persuaded others besides George Bush that evil is an active force in the world. The science of the Big Bang and DNA looks much more like the work of a creator than the cold world of Newtonian Laws and Darwinian evolution. And at least indirectly the horrors of the 20th century showed that the latter provides no moral compass.
I'm not quite sure what the work of a creator looks like and that is the essential problem with creationists--anything fits their claims. Other than finding 'engineered by Yahweh' inscribed on some DNA there really isn't much to argue about here. One can accept on faith that God created the universe, but through means that follow natural methods. Insisting that God's actions must be telegraphed seems a bit more in line with Greek Deities and not the God of the Bible.
More troubling is that Bartley thinks that a scientific theory is a philosophy. Of course, it is not. The method of scientific discovery is philosophically based, but is not a normative enterprise in terms of its practice. It is absurd to expect a description of how life on Earth evolved to explain moral questions. Bartley might as well be suggesting that explanations for El Nino are responsible for Peruvian corruption.
The Scopes Monkey trial of 1925, the great defeat of the fundamentalists, has in particular come in for reassessment. Noting for example that the ACLU advertised for a plaintiff, a 2002 PBS documentary let the people of Dayton, Tenn. say that they were not the dolts depicted by the news dispatches of H. L. Mencken and the 1960 movie "Inherit the Wind." And in his new Mencken biography "The Skeptic," Terry Teachout points to the unlovely side of the philosophy animating his account: A disdain of democracy, for example, in favor of credo of Social Darwinism, applying survival of the fittest to human communities, and its corollary of eugenics, shortly later discredited by the Third Reich.
I'm not sure how one gets to be a editor of a major national paper and cannot tell the difference between biological evolution as a science and social darwinism and eugenics as completely different concepts?
archpundit 4/21/2003 2:42:55 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
It's The End of the World As We Know It
Go Read Kaus. He is very good today.
archpundit 4/21/2003 2:15:24 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Coming Soon-Updated Blogroll
There are several new blogs out there who have linked to me. I'll be adding the ones I catch--if you have linked to me I'll generally reciprocate--just let me know. I, of course, reserve the right to do with my blogroll whatever I damn well want to.
archpundit 4/21/2003 10:35:21 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Trying to Walk and Chew Gum at the Same Time
For the Post-Dispatch Editorial Board. Let's take a look at today's attempt to make sense of the Wellston School District.
On the one hand they attempt to address how much the Wellston Superintendent makes and on the other hand they attempt to address how poorly the District has performed. And the editorial concludes, the district needs to think about things.
Let me take a stab at it--the Superintendent is paid just below the SLPS Superintendent. The Wellston District is about to lose accreditation. The Wellston Superintendent has held the job since 1984.
From this I can conclude, the Wellston Superintendent should be fired. Call me crazy. Nearly 20 years and his biggest impact is proceeding over a district that losing accreditation should come with some accountability.
The thing is, the Post-Dispatch cannot say that. Why not? I don't know. They seem to imply it, but an editorial about a crisis in one of the worst school districts with some of the poorest kids doesn't need to be danced around.
Chip Taylor has some suggestions concerning the Wellston School District as well. And Chip is correct in stating that Wellston parents need a choice now. The problem is how do we provide that choice and there it gets complicated. We could and should find a way to circumvent the district. There are several problems in doing so.
First, we do not really know how to educate poor kids with high levels of lead poisoning, few family resources, 90 % eligibility for free or reduced school lunch (a reasonable approximation of poverty) and high mobility. The problem is that we don't know how to pull a quick reform. There isn't a simple model we can implement to improve performance quickly.
Second, there aren't any other public school districts adjacent that are equipped to take on a significant number of students from Wellston. University City is challenged with a fairly high number of poor students and while it is making improvements, more poor students would overly burden it. The districts to the north face similar challenges and the SLPS is in no position to institute immediate change given the condition of schools in the Northwest part of the City are as poor as the Wellston schools. To give students an effective choice, students would have to be bused to districts that are not immediately adjacent to Wellston, dramatically increasing the difficulty and the costs of any such program. Public school choice is an expensive proposition with logistical nightmares.
Private school choice isn't very realistic (at least om the short term)for many of the same reasons. The private schools in the area are close to full and getting them ot private schools farther out present two problems. One is the transportation problem, the other is many such schools are incapable of dealing with special populations. While I don't see the number listed at DESE, the likely special ed rate is at least 25% of students or more in Wellston.
Finally, any solution has to assume parents won't be likely to make alternative school choices in significant numbers. This may seem counterintuitive to many, but given the choice to have their children transfer, many poor parents choose not to transfer their kids. Why this is the case is complex. Many parents of kids in such districts do not understand the choices available to them and have little ability to make informed choices. I would actually argue this is true of the vast majority of parents, but most parents have the economic wherewithall to choose nicer neighborhoods and in doing so utilize rules of thumb provided by the press, real estate agencies (though often defective) and friends as to what constitutes a good school.
In the SLPS, the voluntary transfer program for African-Americans has never been fully subscribed. And in many cases, the number of African-American slots in the magnets have not been utilized forcing the SLPS district to reduce the total number of students going to the magnets. Such parents often are intimidated by schools and school officials even when such people are welcoming (and Wellston is not) largely because they had such poor experiences in school themselves.
So how does one solve the problem? Good question. No one really knows. However, in cases like Wellston, or Brooklyn, IL, or other small poor inner-ring suburbs taking over the district by the state has to be the first start. Increasing school choice is a long-term strategy, but in the short-term, giving fewer choices is probably necessary for most students.
The problem in Missouri is the State doesn't want to do it. First, it doesn't know how to solve the problems of poverty and learning. Second, it takes money and if the State is responsible and determines an expensive course of action is needed the State is on the hook.
Let's consider this the first in the series on urban education problems.
UPDATE: Posted on both sites with some editing for clarity.
archpundit 4/21/2003 10:12:17 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Blessings to All
Gracious and powerful God, we thank you for your sacrifice in Jesus and for the indelible image of goodness and love it creates for us. Help us to see beyond the prevalence of bleakness and woe to the hope of Christ?s victory, and help us to be instruments of that goodness. In Jesus? name. Amen.
archpundit 4/18/2003 11:53:12 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Dean's Foreign Policy
Dean addresses concerns that he is not sufficiently against Bush's Doctrine of Preemptive War. Part of this came from his apparent willingness to use force in North Korea if necessary.
While one always wants to keep a bit of strategic ambiguity over specific actions that would lead to war, I'm still unclear on when unilateral action is acceptable given an imminent threat.
I supported military action in Iraq, though I was not particularly happy with the administration's path. Much like Kenneth Pollack and others--presumably including Richard Lugar and Chuck Hagel who have been quietly, but consistently critical of the President, I understood the long-term problem, but did not grasp the reason to rush. However, if we were going to rush, well, okay.
Dean is saying the right things in general, but I'm still not sure where he would draw the line between courting multilateral institutions and deciding the interest was too great to not act unilaterally. That is a hard question to answer, but he is going to have to answer it if he is to do well.
The fundamental problem of the Bush administration isn't one case, it is a pattern of ignoring international problems and agreements. When he trashed Kyoto--fine, it was flawed, but he offered no serious plan to replace it. The International Criminal Court? Okay, but what other institutional arrangements can we make. And what about another trade round? --oops I forgot, he isn't actually for free trade.
Globalization and environmental problems that cross individual country's borders have to be addressed internationally. Many of those institutions thought up by the Europeans are deficient, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't work towards functioning institutions, it means we should propose better alternatives.
This is what excites me about this next election--foreign policy returns and forces the Democrats to argue the issue. Dean seems to be up to it even if I think he needs to clarify specific issues, as is some others such as Lieberman. Some like Kucinich are off in meditation land, while others are trying to say much of anything.
For reconstruction of Iraq, Dean has offered a detailed seven point plan. Only Edwards and Lieberman have offered up their own detailed plans. The plan is quite good.
archpundit 4/18/2003 5:38:15 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Why Isn't Chicago Being Picked On?
Hispanic Lege Members are divided over a bill to impose oversight over Cicero's finances.
The question asked by an opponent who sees it as a slap at Hispanics is:
''Why isn't Chicago being picked on?" Aguilar asked. "When I go to Mexico and I mention Chicago, they ask me, 'Where's your machinegun?' ''
The irony of this statement is that Capone started the view of Chicago as a gangster city and, well, Capone moved to Cicero when he was kicked out of the city.
Then again, the other difference is Cicero is run by the mob, Chicago just pays off the Outfit with overpriced and falsely certified minority contracts.
archpundit 4/18/2003 5:05:08 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Perhaps not the Standard You Want to Hang Your Hat On
The federal government lifted the airspace restrictions over downtown Chicago, thus reigniting the war of words over Meigs Field closure. While I support closing Meigs, I would have preferred it not be done in the middle of the night and for the Mayor to simply say because it is more valuable as park land. The security argument is silly. Friends of Meigs responded by saying:
"I don't see how anybody can seriously think there's a security risk if Homeland Security doesn't think there's a legitimate threat,"
Well, they have a lot more faith in the Department of Rainbows than I do.
archpundit 4/18/2003 5:00:06 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Powell makes a gaffe on Chile
Via Unlearned Hand
Powell indicates that the US role in the Allende Coup was 'not a part of American history that we're proud of'. This is a gaffe by Michael Kinsley's standards because it is an example of a politician telling the truth.
The State Department 'put distance' between the Secretary and the Department.
In a wonderful bit of doublespeak, former Kissinger underling Williams Rodgers claims:
Rogers said the Chilean military acted not because the United States urged it to do so, "but because they believed that had the Allende regime continued much longer, Chilean liberties would be irretrievably lost."
You see, the Chilean military had to destroy civil liberties in Chile to save them.
Even better:
He called the department legal office to point out that there was a pending law suit against the government and Powell's comment was not helpful.
So the truth is less important than $11 million? For all of the moral clarity running around these days, perhaps this administration would like to take responsibility for past immoral actions and buck up some compensation. Hey, we could even compensate Nicaragua for the terrorist act of mining their harbor! Let's go crazy!
Rogers claims the US didn't instigate the coup. The problem is no one seriously believes that. Even if you accepted Kissinger's view that this was better because the road to Communism was inevitable under Allende would lead to a Soviet puppet, everyone understands what happened.
archpundit 4/17/2003 3:25:10 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
I Couldn't Write This As Parody
Horowitz is up to his schtick over at Right Wing News
Eric Alterman is a charlatan and a fool and the media is obviously left-wing. I can tell you that personally because there is nobody really that I could call at the LA Times, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Boston Globe, and find an ideological friend. At least no one that I know. Whereas Eric Alterman could call all of them. Let me put it this way; an extremist, a supporter of every American enemy since he was potty trained like Eric Alterman could get editorial support in those venues. Every major metropolitan newspaper in America is written by Democrats in the main. To say, "What liberal media?" Only a blind person could come up with a title like that.
an extremist, a supporter of every American enemy since he was potty trained like Eric Alterman
That just makes me giggle.
an extremist, a supporter of every American enemy since he was potty trained like Eric Alterman
I save language like that for Matt Hale, but it is everyday hyperbole for Horowitz.
an extremist, a supporter of every American enemy since he was potty trained like Eric Alterman
I may keep repeating that line for several days--it really makes me giggle...
archpundit 4/17/2003 1:11:26 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Congress and Columbia
So I've been wondering, now that we are getting some preliminary information from the Columbia panel can anyone tell me how Congress in an unindicted co-conspirator?
I'm happy to criticize Congress on how it funds NASA, and the lack of a coherent space policy, but no change in policy would have removed the shuttle fleet from use by now.
archpundit 4/17/2003 12:50:14 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Nice Advance Work
But Smith added: "The timing for the president's visit couldn't be worse. On Friday, 238 of my members are getting laid off . . . because of lack of work."
archpundit 4/17/2003 12:37:00 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Circle up and Fire
The Emerging Democratic Majority
The resistance to a larger tax cut by two Republican senators, Olympia J. Snowe of Maine and George V. Voinovich of Ohio, was what caused the budget to be constructed the way it was in the first place, with one tax cut number for the Senate and another for the House. So Republicans, in concert with a re-engaged president and White House operation, will either have to persuade the two senators to change their minds or lean on some other opponents to switch.
The conservative Club for Growth is going the not-so-subtle route, starting a $100,000-to-$150,000 television advertising campaign this weekend in Ohio and Maine that compares Senators Voinovich and Snowe to the French and accuses them of disloyalty to the president for their tax cut position.
And no I don't think the Democrats will pick up the Senate in this round, but such intraparty feuding isn't healthy for any party. It is also a good way to scare off someone like Jim Edgar.
archpundit 4/17/2003 12:29:10 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Doctor, does he understand why this war took place?
Atrios points out the utter vapidness of Kyra Phillips.
It is one thing to schill for the right wing, but is it really that hard for one to understand that a kid who just lost his family and his arms is angry and against war? One can, and I do argue, that the war was worth it with the full understanding there are many stories like this out there. But to not understand the impact his actually has people in his position is...well I don't know, but really, really self-involved and bad. I can't think of a word for it.
That child is now the responsibility of the United States. And not just to sit there and try and convince him that the war was justified.
archpundit 4/16/2003 11:29:38 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Why Was It That We Didn't Need More Troops?
Was proving the war could be done with fewer troops really worth losing civilization's history?
War is unpredictable. We all understand that. However, why weren't more troops allocated to protecting such sites? Looters aren't hard to deter so adding cultural sites and maybe even a few hospitals wouldn't be that hard.
As for the whining about it potentially being Baath Party officials. So what? American tanks and troops deter all sorts of bad people--why not deter them? Actually, wouldn't we want to deter them especially?
Looting of stores and other types of locations was going to happen. There was no way around that. However, we identified key locations for protections such as the oil ministry. If this is for the Iraqi people as the rhetoric has been claiming, there is no excuse to not protect the Iraqi heritage and indeed the world's heritage. We have the troops and the hardware--why not use them?
The only rational reason why not to do so is that proving a new war strategy is more important than heritage.
archpundit 4/16/2003 10:52:00 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Good Guys Wear Blood
Coming soon: Mullets and And Blood Night At YOUR COMISKEY PARK!
archpundit 4/16/2003 1:25:57 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Edgar Is Expressing Interest
Jim Edgar is expressing interest in Peter Fitzgerald's Senate Seat.
?Jim Edgar is the party?s 500-pound gorilla,? with the capacity to preempt the field and avoid a bruising primary, said one source who has spoken with him. Though Mr. Edgar previously toyed with, and ultimately dismissed, becoming GOP party chairman or even governor again, this time, ?it?s serious,? said the source, who asked not to be named
With Democrats sweeping to victory in the 2002 Illinois elections, ?a ticket of Jim Edgar and George W. Bush in 2004 would be a dream ticket in terms of rebuilding the party,? Ms. Topinka said.
?If the president calls, he runs,? predicts another Edgar confidant. ?Remember that he and Bush served together as governors. They?re close.?
Big News! I like many others assumed he was enjoying what was essentially well paid retirement. If he gets in, he is the frontrunner for the general election. He is the most popular statewide politician in Illinois with only Paul Simon and Jim Thompson have similar appeal. He is a fiscally conservative, pro-choice Republican.
The last sentence suggests he could be challenged for the nomination, but I find it hard to believe that any of the usual suspects amongst social conservatives could credibly challenge him. While O'Malley may try, my guess is he will sit out to avoid being a two-time loser (and his State Senate seat is up in 2004 IIRC).
For the Democrats it becomes more vital to nominate the strongest general election candidate and against Edgar, that will be Dan Hynes. Hynes is fiscal conservative and socially moderate allowing little room for space while providing a clear choice in whether Bush's agenda gets passed--an agenda not particularly popular in Illinois.
archpundit 4/15/2003 4:45:13 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Evasion
Tim Lambert updates the most recent issues concerning Lott and Reynolds.
Lott should have lost all credibility by this point, but what is strange is that Reynolds seems okay getting caught up in Lott's little games.
If Lott was the source for the first article:
of them have reputations as being antigun. Steven Levitt, has been
Most of the people selected for the panel have reputations as good scholars, but none of them have specialized in firearms policy. Most described as "rabidly antigun."
The closest that anyone on the panel gets to not being entirely antigun is James Q. Wilson
Glenn responded on an e-mail list that he had published Levitt's reaction on Instapundit.
Reynolds isn't revealing his source, but one can expect it to be Lott. In which case, Reynolds is getting burned by Lott if Lott is the source. Lott claims in his book that media accounts describe Levitt as 'rabidly anti-gun.' Only Reynolds and Kopel can know for sure, but if Lott is using such sleight of hand, they have a responsibility not to be a part of it.
Lott's work is poorly done. He is a joke amongst those who do quantitative research in social science. Whether he is better or worse than Charles Murray would be a funny discussion to have. Just who is the biggest incompetent out there?
Yet Reynolds and others continue to schill for him. It would not be that hard for Reynolds to walk across campus and find someone with a decent background in statistics to explain this to him, but he has shown no interest in determining if Lott's work is of any merit.
archpundit 4/15/2003 10:17:43 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Fitzgerald's Out
Check it out at the Political State Report
Short Handicapping:
Jim Ryan is recruited by Rove and Rove tries to clear the field
Patrick O'Malley enters the race and creates one of the most divisive primaries ever, beating his last primary challenge to Ryan. Ryan wins, conservatives stay home in the general.
archpundit 4/15/2003 9:06:11 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Instapundit
Pile on Instapundit. I hadn't looked at Tim Lambert's page for a couple weeks--you know the war or something. Anyway, Tim continues a fantastic job on covering Lott's work.
Tim summarizes what appears to be Reynolds contributing to Lott's efforts to argue the politics and not the merits of his work. It certainly seems that Lott was an anonymous source that identified Steven Levitt as a 'rabidly anti-gun'. Even better, Lott cites media sources that suggest such Levitt is 'rabidly anti-gun' in his new book. So Lott is likely a source for a claim and then uses it as evidence to support the claim. Uh-huh.
The only thing missing is any evidence that Levitt is actually anti-gun. Even if Lott isn't the source no real evidence of bias has been presented against Levitt.
But don't get lost in the amongst the trees in the forest, this is another example of Lott moving the discussion to the politics of the argument over the substance of his argument. By avoiding the actual substance of his work he is able to make a butt-load of money by crying victim and producing results that people want to hear.
Taking part in this little game demonstrates how little of a committment Reynolds has to scholarly research.
archpundit 4/14/2003 3:16:14 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Too Few Nos
Tom Tomorrow expresses his feelings about Jeb Bush for President in 2008.
From my point-of-view, Tomorrow is kinda wishy-washy...
archpundit 4/14/2003 2:49:10 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Wanted: Competent Cronies
It has been abundantly clear this administration has a liking for crony capitalism. This is always bad. However, there are the bad in a way of not everyone getting a fair shake way and bad in a way of screwing up the policy way and only benefiting polical crony way. The Bush administration has a fascination with the second category.
More evidence: Dyncorp
Via both TalkLeft and Body and Soul.
They have been accused of covering up sex rings, which is an all too nice way of saying they covered up child molestation.
But you know those aren't our kids, so if they can get the job done, hey. Sure, if it was clear they could get the job done at all.
Doesn't the administration of competency have any cronies to rich who can at least do the job well?
archpundit 4/14/2003 2:34:50 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Go read...
Is the meme of the day here, so go read Kos's guest blogger (and sure to leave Kos in the lurch as with his other guest bloggers) write about the culture of fear.
Read the comments as well, some are exceptionally touching.
One of my greatest misgivings with the administration's handling of the war is that they attempted to tie Saddam to bin Laden. It is clear why the administration did that, but what is also clear is that such choices have toxic long term effects to democracy. The case against Iraq stood on its own and yet they couldn't help, but go for the cheap sell.
archpundit 4/14/2003 2:13:07 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Shame, indeed.
Shame, indeed. Kevin Drum points to the goods on Fox.
My view? I've already stated it, but wouldn't it be nice if consistency governed some people's thoughts?
archpundit 4/14/2003 2:04:48 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
They probably have a lot of experience negotiating labyrinthine
Go Read Digby
archpundit 4/14/2003 1:55:41 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
getting gay all over your furniture
Go read Ted Barlow
archpundit 4/14/2003 1:52:24 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Steve Neal Slobbers over Howard Dean
But that is okay, so do I. More over at the Dean Call to Action Blog.
Remember the Dean Meet-up is May 7th. I'll announce the location here as well (though you should go to the Meet-up site if interested), but currently the Missouri for Dean e-mail discussion list is having an inane discussion over where the event should take place. Other details will be posted to the Missouri for Dean site.
While I haven't made up my mind who I'm supporting in 2004 yet, Dean is up top right now.
archpundit 4/14/2003 1:08:01 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Note to John Zahm
He complains that the local paper didn't sign an editorial critical of him. Errr...John, if you notice, the editorial page represents the paper's position and no paper I read on a regular basis signs those editorials. They generally aren't very anonymous because the editorials are written by the editorial staff.
Just thought you might want to know before making a fool of yourself--oops too late.
archpundit 4/14/2003 12:51:28 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Smarth Growth and Cross Dressers
All a part of deception. How? Hell if I know, but Joyce Morrison pulls off another spectacularly incoherent column. Oh, and the American Planning Association is in on it too...
archpundit 4/14/2003 12:42:52 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Passed without comment
March 19th:
"I plan to be blogging around the clock during the war," he said, "though I do agree that, in some ways, blogs are more important in the run-up to war. From now on, it's tanks and missiles. But the blogs will be right behind."
April 14th:
SPRING BREAK: I'm taking a breather this week. After round-the-clock blogging since the new year, it's time for a break. Thanks for being there each day and night. Have a great week. See you next Monday, bright and early.
archpundit 4/14/2003 12:21:42 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Kennedy on Courts
Dahlia Lithwick reports on Kennedy's comments regarding the crisis in the judiciary.
The ultimate problem is that no one has an electoral incentive to break the logjam. A compromise needs to be worked out that focuses on moderates getting appointed in a reasonable proportion. Such a compromise benefits no one politically and is unlikely to occur this administration.
Kennedy makes an excellent point that the current system focuses far too much energy on potential judges views. While a broad philosophy is reasonable to ask about, the current system is prying far too detailed of information out of people who need to be free to change their mind.
archpundit 4/14/2003 10:38:01 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Not Seen Here Often
An approving link to Mickey Kaus
The idea isn't to have a dialogue! It's to end dictatorship in Cuba by swamping Castro with American goods, American culture, and an opening wedge of capitalist freedom. Unfortunately, Castro seems to be smart enough to realize this.
Ding! Ding! Ding!
archpundit 4/14/2003 10:14:15 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Can the NY Times Spare Tom Friedman for a While
The rest of the poodle---press corps needs to learn how to deal with Rumsfeld (via Liberal Oasis):
From Face The Nation:
TOM FRIEDMAN: You know the French Foreign Minister today said that the time is not right for the United States to put pressure on Syria, by accusing it of aiding Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's regime.
Do these guys piss you off?
RUMSFELD: The French?
FRIEDMAN: Yeah.
RUMSFELD: Oh goodness. I think I'll leave diplomacy to Secretary Powell.
FRIEDMAN: Why start now?
archpundit 4/14/2003 9:42:36 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Shock and Awe:Jesse Jackson Misses A Chance in Front of a Camera
Those who remember his trip to Belgrade can't help but laugh now how that led to Rod Blagojevich being looked at as a lightweight. Rod couldn't even elbow Jackson out of the way for one good photo-op. Now Rod is Governor apparently learning his lesson from that experience.
Jackson planned to go to Iraq to make a plea on behalf of the POWs. But recent events have overtaken him and much to the chagrin of everyone, the good Reverend does not appear to have a chance to grandstand this war.
I suppose an effective selling point for the Bush administration to get his support for an invasion of Syria could be unlimited access to their television airwaves once we have control.
archpundit 4/14/2003 1:13:20 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Pursuit Of Happiness isn't Good Enough for Bush and Crew
Steve Chapman has been writing some of the better work against the war. While I disagree with him, he has clear principles and makes a strong case. Of course, if we continue the path towards Syria, I'll soon be on the same side as Chapman. On Sunday, he address the fundamental problem that accompanies routine military intervention. Americans will no longer be able to pursue happiness because they will have the burden of reconstructing a significant portion of the world.
As someone who grew up opposing US action in Latin America, my general impulse has been to first target our support of oppressive regimes. Before pointing the fingers at others, point the finger where our dollars do the damage. After we stop doing that, we can move on to others, though I would argue war is seldom the answer.
Iraq was justified primarily for the reason that Saddam and his regime were a threat to US interests. The case was strengthened by his gross violations of human rights. But human rights are not a reason alone to invade a country, especially when our hands are not clean. Let's move on to pursuing happiness and not hindering the pursuit of happiness in other countries.
archpundit 4/14/2003 1:01:20 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Sorry For the Slow Blogging
But the Blagojevich budget speech put me to sleep for days. Perhaps his ability to speak so long is what makes him think he can be President--after Bill Clinton's torturous explications during State of the Unions.
Of course, even Clinton couldn't go so long that public radio had to cut the signal when they ran out of satellite time...
archpundit 4/14/2003 12:46:48 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Steve Neal's Obsessions with Fitzgerald Continues
Not satisfied with the Republican civil war in Illinois, Neal has taken it on himself to find challengers to Fitzgerald, including this unpaid advertisement for
I'll have more later in the week on Political State Report.
archpundit 4/14/2003 12:40:14 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Proof that Bush is an Idiot
He's not so sure about evolution. He should check in with his church, they have no problem with evolution and science definitively answered the question some time ago.
archpundit 4/14/2003 12:36:26 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Lyndon LaRouche Award
Unlike Sully, I don't take awards seriously, but David Duke's serving time is too much to pass up.
Quote of the article:
A month after the Discover Islam appearance, Duke's attorney and prosecutors finally reached a plea arrangement and Duke returned to the United States from a visit to Austria. As he prepares for prison, some supporters are worried he may be a target of violence. A spokesman at the Big Spring prison said no decisions have been made on whether to provide special protection for Duke.
David Duke may not be liked by the prison population? No kidding...
archpundit 4/14/2003 12:29:56 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Why GM pisses me off
This ad. The thing that really pisses me off--in St. Louis it is all too accurate. So really the axis of evil is GM and Bi-State.
archpundit 4/14/2003 12:22:49 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Cycling Thought for the Day
From http://www.mprfl.com
I wish these drivers would blow me a kiss when they cut?
me off, push me off the road because I usually get a kiss
before I get screwed?
archpundit 4/14/2003 12:19:51 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Rod Paige: Simply Wrong in So Many Ways
Yesterday, in the Washington Post, Paige was quoted as saying, "[a]ll things equal, I would prefer to have a child in a school that has a strong appreciation for the values of the Christian community, where a child is taught to have a strong faith," and that "The reason that Christian schools and Christian universities are growing is a result of a strong value system. In a religious environment the value system is set. That's not the case in a public school where there are so many different kids with different kinds of values."
Representative Nadler's Office sent out this quote with a response from Nadler and 11 other Members of Congress.
On the one hand I tried to read this with some charity towards Paige, but the kicker is "different kids with different kinds of values." Frankly the public school I went to could have used some of that diversity, but that is a different story. I'm a strong believer in public education as it got me from living in a trailer court to a pretty damn decent education. One of the strengths of that education was that I was exposed to ideas I never would have been exposed to in my corner of the world. Parents should instill values and education should teach students how to think about values in a diverse world. That diversity is the very strength of any education and based on that, I'll put in for Rod Paige to go back to school and be some of that diversity--but he damn sure has no business as the Secretary of Education.
Of course, given that Rod Paige is pretty much MIA, we could be seeing Eldon Floyd pretty soon.
archpundit 4/14/2003 12:11:34 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Just How Stupid Are These People?
Matt Welch has been on a tear about Cuba. I generally poo-poo most complaints about people who support Castro because, well I don't know anyone who will argue anything good about the guy. The best I've ever heard is that constructive engagement might have good effects. I classify this as naive, but hardly pro-Castro. Welch proves me wrong with this post.
I don't support the embargo because I generally think a policy that fails to achieve its objective after 40 years is probably not going to do much good for another 40 years that Castro seems hellbent on living. I also would argue that US capital would be the best way to weaken his hold on power. That being said, he is a nasty and brutish dictator and we absolutely should have our interest section telling the truth about opression in Cuba.
archpundit 4/13/2003 11:18:06 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Wrong Question for the 'Human Rights Exception'
Kevin Drum tentatively supports a Human Rights Exception in a limited way meaning that the world should look at removing regimes that have human rights records that are appalling.
I think this is putting the cart before the horse.
Before we start knocking off dictators and the sort in the name of humans rights abuses, wouldn't the first step be to stop actively aiding regimes that behave badly?
Let's see...Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Uzbekistan, etc. And don't forget some of our closer projects that are headed towards the same problems such as Honduras and Colombia.
The reality of living in a dangerous world is that you have to use some unsavory people to protect one's position in the world. Recognizing that, we don't need as many as we support. Before we start popping off other countries, let's start by removing active support of those we safely can remove our support.
Since I just linked to Kevin, let me endorse this post. Reynolds used to be fun to parody because he had his blind spots, now it is almost like a self-parody every time I read his site.
archpundit 4/13/2003 11:08:41 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Now That's Funny
In a desperate attempt to be a victim, Bill O'Reilly claimed his column was pulled from the Orange County Register because he was pro-war.
But the paper has a different take:
"We published a number of his columns throughout the fall and into the spring," said Taylor. "Then we started to notice something. The columns were more and more about Bill O?Reilly and Bill O?Reilly?s television show and what happened to Bill O?Reilly on Bill O?Reilly?s television show."
archpundit 4/13/2003 10:44:03 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Is Bush Making Foreign Policy In Secret?
Gary Hart sets three key clues as to the future of the Bush administration foreign policy. Hart makes a good argument about where Bush seems to want to go and I can't quibble with the three clues he identifies. The problem I have is that Josh Marshall recently pointed out that it isn't much of a secret.
archpundit 4/13/2003 10:01:47 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Blathering About Meigs
Friends Of Meigs had this to say about the closing of Meigs Airfield:
Chicago, IL ? The City of Chicago today used surprise and shock tactics to start demolishing Meigs Field, the world-renowned airport serving downtown, ripping up runway without notice in the dark of night under police guard. ?We are in shock,? said Rachel Goodstein, president of the Friends of Meigs Field. ?The City of Chicago had agreed to keep Meigs Field open until 2026,? she said, citing a December 2001 agreement between Mayor Daley and Governor Ryan.
World reknown? Uh-huh. As Steve Neal pointed out That designation fits London's Heathrow, Metropolitan France's Orly and Chicago's O'Hare Airport. It certainly doesn't fit an airport that primarily serves some small corporate traffic, some general aviation and some state planes.
Their complaint that Daley broke the law by breaking an agreement with George Ryan is a bit hard to figure. That agreement had to be codified and the Illinois Legislature refused to do so--well, to be accurate Pate Philip refused to pass the bill because it allowed for the expansion of O'Hare. The agreement couldn't be passed in the US Senate because Peter Fitzgerald filibustered it. So the agreement certainly wasn't law and even George Ryan agreed the original agreement was by the wayside because of the lack of legislative action.
The Friends of Meigs are now suing to stop any further destruction of Meigs. This is nothing more than a nuisance lawsuit. While the midnight raid was petty and stupid, it makes some sense given the ridiculous arguments coming out of Meigs proponents and their actions.
The only legal issue present is whether Daley should have waited thirty days or not. Trying to blame Daley's autocratic style (normally a legitimate criticism) is simply a diversion for having an argument weak on the merits. Daley wasn't even that autocratic this time except in the exact timing of the runway destruction. The fight over Meigs has been going on for nearly 10 years. Many are claiming that the public process was subverted when the reality was that the public process was unbelievably long.
Even more strange is the talk out of Congress that this was a blow to Chicago infrastructure. In no way is this a blow to most flight traffic in the region. An important point to demonstrate this is only 16 planes were at Meigs on the day it was closed. There are no commercial flights and haven't been for several years. Why eliminating a small airport of little value in the larger regional transit scheme should be a factor in future infrastructure decisions is unclear other than Friends of Meigs is really loud and Members of Congress thought that this was actually a big deal.
archpundit 4/12/2003 11:32:14 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Why Do We Care About History?
Atrios is far to forgiving concerning the looting of Iraqi National Museum. This, well I guess, was truly a one-of-a-kind museum for humanity. Such places are essential for us to understand our past as well as our future. Those concepts are inseparable.
archpundit 4/12/2003 10:39:43 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
And about this Chalabi Character
Unless Dick Perle is going to become a Iraqi citizen, he ought to stay the hell out of it. Of course, the good news is that if the US pushes Chalabi, Chalabi will probably lose an election. That is, if there are real elections...
archpundit 4/11/2003 11:59:51 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Hall is for Homers Anyway
Baseball Hall of Fame head Petroskey's uninviting of the Robbins and Sarandon has led to Roger Kahn telling the Hall to take a hike.
Petroskey is a bit dim-witted:
Petroskey did tell ESPNEWS on Friday that if he had to do it over again, he would've called Robbins and Sarandon.
Errr...maybe it is just me, but wouldn't a call to them to, oh, I don't know, see if they would agree to keep the occasion non-political be appropriate before cancelling the whole thing be appropriate?
My major problem with the Hall is they are a bunch of Yankee Homers who refuse to acknowledge the infinite superiority of Wrigley Field to Yankee Stadium. No really, of the great parks their display on Yankee Stadium is huge while Wrigley gets a picture--smaller than the atrocity known as Busch Stadium here in St. Louis. Homer losers.
archpundit 4/11/2003 11:56:58 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Don't Let Rumsfeld Off the Hook
And no I'm not talking about the looting. The looting was going to happen to a certain extent and while it is somewhat ugly, well, welcome to the Hobbesian world we live in. There is a reason we have government and the streets of Baghdad are a good example of what happens when civil authority breaks down. I have no idea if we will restore order in the next few days, but assuming we do, it really isn't a big deal. If it lasts for a couple weeks, someone should be accountable.
What is a big deal is the war plan. Sure it worked out and we can credit the armed forces for performing flawlessly. The thing is, we also need to credit Iraqi strategery. What stopped the dams and bridges from being blown? Several things:
1) Good luck on our part
2) Faster penetration than anyone expected
3) Saddam's incompetence
Pretty much, our easy success in both Gulf Wars can be summed up by Saddam's incompetence. In both cases we would have prevailed and prevailed, in relative terms, easily. There are several aspects of this plan that seem to be riskier to our forces than necesary. I'm guessing part of this is a hope that Saddam would perform as poorly as he did in Iran and the first Gulf War and part Rumsfeld wanting to show off his ideas. Either way, hope isn't a way to run a military campaign. The fortunate aspect of this is the military is obsessive about reviewing its efforts and even if reports are squelched, any weakness in the plan as analyzed will eventually be public.
archpundit 4/11/2003 11:50:26 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Dog Bites Man
Something that I figured out when I was around 10 years old is that totalitarian regimes only allowed censored news coverage. It really wasn't an earth shattering realization, it was common sense.
The only story that is a bit troubling is the threat to King Hussein. Other than that the stories didn't tell anyone anything they didn't--or shouldn't have already known about Iraq. My goodness, Iraq tortures people? Who knew? Only anyone who had been paying attention for the last 20 years. I can't find the source now, but some nitwit was trying to blame CNN for not telling Saddam's son-in-laws about the threat on their lives if they returned to Iraq. Maybe Americans need a roadmap to a clue, but those two clearly understood what their return would result in.
The individual stories only would have led to the deaths or torture of those involved, I'm a bit mystified by what purpose such stories would have served. We already knew that Iraq was doing, so what would the stories add?
A totalitarian government only has one reason to allow foreign reporters in and that is to try and get them to pass along propaganda. That is part of the game. Except the mentally infirm, no one takes pictures of protests any more seriously than the Iraqi (err former) Information Minister. The benefit of having people on site is that they can relay subtle information from time to time. Now, most of the networks are terrible at that because their reports even when not censored are free of useful content.
In the USSR, these reports were often helpful even though the networks made the exact same compromises. Anyone who remembers coverage of the Soviet Union remembers that much of the information in news reports was in what was not said--especially once Andropov took power. I suppose if we want to dumb down news even more we can assume no one has the ability to critically read, but I'd rather worry about those who can critically read and let the rest fall by the wayside.
Some of the most heated rhetoric is bizarre:
Perhaps if the network had been willing to lose access long before, a nation would have been liberated earlier and many, many lives would have been saved.
The statement completely ignores that this information was well known previously. Really well known so one is at a loss as to how reporting the particular stories mentioned would have changed anything.
Franklin Foer's article that covered how western press deals with Iraq in particular fails to understand a rather basic point. The only reason Iraq lets any journalists in is because Iraqi leaders thought they could manipulate that coverage to their advantage. If there weren't reporters who cooperated on some level, reporters like Joel Soler would never be given any access. No single organization can provide a full picture, but the differing types of coverage hopefully lead to a decent understanding.
The real scandal over news coverage is how utterly content free most of the TV coverage is. The analysis is historically adrift and has little grounding in any sort of context and as such is useless.
Ironic Tidbit: Consistently blasted for left bias by many in the states, Christiane Amanpour was amongst those booted from Iraq.
archpundit 4/11/2003 11:39:12 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Wednesdays are Busy
Move along, back with a lot tomorrow.
archpundit 4/09/2003 12:26:14 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Who Wins: Inhofe vs. Daley
Think about the repercussions of taking on the most powerful Mayor in America, Jim. Or just go back to ranting about evolution and how our Israel policy should be determined by the Book of Revelation.
Last Monday, after the late night demolition, I was critical of Daley for the manner in which he pulled off this stunt, but the shutting down of Meigs is very reasonable. After hearing from the critics of the move, I'm starting to think Daley acted to mildly and should have gone further. The only lame part of Daley's argument is his trying to justify it for security reasons.
James Inhofe probably doesn't realize what is bloody obvious to the rest of the world outside of Oklahoma and the home-schooled. The fact that Inhofe is a moron of spectacular dimensions simply eludes his self-awareness.
A pilot who once lived in Chicago, Inhofe said he found it bitterly ironic the hearing dealt with improving "infrastructure" when the city demolished a critical piece of infrastructure: Meigs' only runway.
In no way is Meigs Field's one runway a critical piece of infrastructure. It served a small number of corporate planes and the State of Illinois jets ferrying state legislators and staff back and forth to Springfield for the weekends. On top of it, Meigs is unreliable because of bad lake weather.
Meigs had been slated for closing and being turned into a park for nearly 50 years. It cannot handle much traffic due to size and weather. It is 20 minutes to Midway and it is owned by the Chicago Parks District.
If someone wanted to save it, there was a law before the Senate that the dim-witted Inhofe's colleague killed. If he wanted to save Meigs as a 'critical piece of infrastructure' there was a deal to be made, but Peter Fitzgerald refused. Whining that Daley did what the city had planned for 50 years isn't a very convincing argument as to why Inhofe might threaten Illinois' infrastructure funding.
And if Inhofe thinks that their Congressional Delegation can beat our Congressional Delegation, let's introduce him to the Speaker of the House of Representatives.
archpundit 4/08/2003 10:51:22 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Ted "Peter Krause" Barlow
Ted Barlow is clearly a fake name for Peter Krause
archpundit 4/07/2003 10:34:49 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Saeed al-Sahhaf, Iraq's Bobby Rush
In the 1999 Chicago Mayoral lamb to the slaughter, Bobby Rush was spinning his wheels against Richard Daley. So his last chance was a huge snowstorm that shut down the city. Betting that Jane Byrne rode poor snow removal to the Mayor's office, Rush figured he could do the same and set-up a press conference showing unremoved snow. Of course, this battle was about as lopsided as the US-Iraq war and he doubled his mitake by allowing his back to be up against the road. The entire time he was giving his press conference, City of Chicago snow plows made that the clearest damn spot of street in the city. All the while Rush had to try and keep his dignity.
I believe Saeed al-Sahhaf knows how Bobby Rush felt.
archpundit 4/07/2003 10:08:59 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Pulitzer at the Trib
For her work on editorials about the death penalty.
Well deserved.
archpundit 4/07/2003 4:41:32 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Problem of Downstate Labor
Is they want coal subsidies. How about instead, an investment program to actually make the educational system in that part of the state an educational system?
archpundit 4/07/2003 4:34:10 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Info Day: Dean Event in Chicago
DL21C's 2nd Thursday Series Presents:
Governor Howard Dean of Vermont, M.D.
Thursday, April 10, 2003
Club Quarters, 111 W. Adams. Street, Chicago
(1 door east of the Elephant
and Castle Pub)
Clark Room, 3rd Floor
Doors open at 5:15 pm. Dean will be in the Clark Room from 5:45 pm to 6:15 pm.
Free for Dl21C Members. $5 for non members.
Come hear Governor Dean speak about his experiences as Governor, his
exciting plans for the future, and his take on issues of national and
international concern.
********************************************
Also, the Dean people have graciously offered DL21C members a special $50
rate to attend Dean's fundraiser after the 2nd Thursday event.
Dana Berkowitz & Lyle Berkowitz, M.D.,
Steve Birenberg,
Robert & Mary Borden,
Scott Chenney,
Kevin Conlon,
Michael King & Amy Hamilton,
Robert Kuzas,
Lynn Lockwood & Barrett Murphy,
Dave Neal,
Matt & Angela Ryan,
Geoffrey B. Shields,
Michael J. Toner
Invite you to meet
Governor Howard Dean, M.D. of Vermont
Democratic Candidate for President of the United States
For a reception
Thursday, April 10, 2003
7:30 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Landmark Arts Gallery
841 West Randolph
Chicago, IL 60607
(Between Peoria & Green Streets)
Host - $1000 write or raise
Sponsor - $500
Patron - $250
Friend - $100
Payable to ~ Dean for America
For more information or to RSVP, please contact Jenny Lehner at (802)
846-6611 or jlehner@deanforamerica.com
archpundit 4/07/2003 4:26:29 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Information Day Here: Dem Candidate Contact Info
Gery Chico
651 W Washington, Suite 105C
Chicago IL 60661
(312) 681-5310 Caryn Berman (312) 715-4826 carynberman@aol.com
Michael Golden FAX (312) 715-4196
Blair Hull
141 W Jackson Blvd Suite 333
Chicago IL 60604 (312) 356-4433 4444 Joe Schaeffer (847) 323-3719
joe@blairhull.com blair@matcap.com joe@blairhull.com
Comptroller Dan Hynes
188 W. Randolph
Chicago 60601
Campaign(312) 337-8880 FAX (312) 337-9002 (217) 726-8600 FAX (217) 726-8240
Nikki cell (217) 899-1749
kimr@friendsofdan.com
State Senator Barack Obama
Box 802799
310 S Michigan Ave. Suite 1425
Chicago IL 60680
camp (312) 427-6300 FAX (312) 427-6401
Cynthia Miller/Jennifer Mason (773) 363-1996 (217) 782 5338
senobama@aol.com
Mayor Matt O'Shea
POB 252
Metamora Il 61548
(309) 231-0250 (309) 367-4044
moshea3836@aol.com
Maria Pappas
180 E Pearson Apt 4807\
Chicago Il 60611
(312) 263-3192
Joyce Washington
222 W Ontario Suite 503
Chicago Il 60610
(312) 861-0008 cell (312) 720-2001 FAX (312) 787 0280 (312) 808-7228
joyce.washington@advocatehealth.com
archpundit 4/07/2003 4:23:19 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Support the Renewable Energy Standard In Illinois
Here. Really, go now.
archpundit 4/07/2003 4:17:51 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
April Fool's Day in East Saint Louis
I've been trying to put together a list of the best of Carl Officer, but it was done by Pat Gauen
My personal favorite was the day he gathered the press to announce that he was filing a federal suit to stop Gov. James Thompson from using the National Guard to seize the city. When I broke the news to Thompson's press secretary, I thought the poor man would laugh himself into a stroke. No troops ever showed up.
Or maybe the best was the time Carl began a speech by greeting me from the podium, by name, but then complained the next day to my editor that the resulting story was unfair because he wouldn't have spoken so candidly had he known a reporter was present.
No, I think it was the opening of an obstetrical unit to help deal with the community's soaring population of unwed mothers. Carl, a bachelor, publicly announced that he was personally going to start work on populating the place that very night.
Oops, I almost forgot the major MetroLink ceremony where Carl wiped the smile off every face by vowing to block the project because he wasn't consulted. (Civic leaders unanimously insisted that Carl was invited to every meeting but never once showed up.)
You've surely heard about how Zaire un-invited Carl to help fine-tune its government after he announced that he would take his own blood supply, so if he got sick he wouldn't depend on its "monkey blood."
Perhaps the best was when he got stopped by police doing 108 mph in a Jaguar borrowed from a convicted drug dealer. Carl bitterly denied the cop's version, insisting he really had been doing 140.
Is there no end to it?
I haven't gotten to the bodyguard with the Uzi. Or the $2,200 Carl claimed for trips never taken. Or the consulting contract the city council approved for $545,000 but Carl signed for $1.3 million. Or Carl's hearty endorsement of a $450 million riverfront development plan long after everyone else, including a federal grand jury, figured out that it was just a big scam.
On the one hand: I'm gonna have a lot material.
On the other hand: Roll 'em up.
archpundit 4/07/2003 3:53:58 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
How Will Blago Get Second Term
The Illinois Circular Firing Squad Team (ICFST) already has a plan. Nominate Patrick O'Malley.
All I have to say is Pretty Please!
O'Malley is a fire-breathing conservative of the none-too-bright category. The base loves him and a big part of his primary campaign was home schoolers. He's dumb, has a political tin ear, and is a shameless publicity hound. The best compliment I can think of is that he is smarter than Chris Lauzen, CPA.
Did I say pretty please?
The end of the article is a bit better though, with the suggestion that Rauschenberger be a dark horse. Rauschenberger is a serious man and utterly unfit for a statewide campaign. He has the unfortunate inability to lie shamelessly about budgeting. Don't get me wrong, Rauschenberger is far more socially conservative than anyone I would ever vote for, but he is a serious person. He could mount a real challenge if he were more telegenic and good at gladhandling. He is not.
archpundit 4/07/2003 2:41:19 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
A Wonderful Little Story on Pension Abuse
Pensions Galore. The problem is that most proposed reforms would limit the vast majority of individuals who don't abuse the system. Police Officers and other who start second careers deserve those pensions. The politically connected class don't and George Ryan's multiple moves to pay off supporters with fat pension assignments demonstrates the way the system can be abused. However, the key to any reform is to limit the worst abuses and not cops and others who work after retirement.
archpundit 4/07/2003 2:31:50 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
What About Afghanistan?
Apparently there is some dissent on the Afghanistan situation moving along swimmingly. That is quite a swipe at the administration from Karzai's brother and Jack Kemp.
archpundit 4/07/2003 2:21:50 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Can't Tell a Person's Wealth By Their Teeth?
Megan McCardle argues this is true in the US, I argue Megan spends too much time with middle class folks.
My wife came home from Target in South City today and was commenting on a Bosnian. I tried out good 'ole American toothism on the story and was completely wrong. The Bosnian had great teeth apparently. However, the South Side Hoosier (St. Louis speak) in front of her in line had daggers for teeth.
So I struck out there. Then I thought about growing up in a trailer court and, well, we don't really need to discuss how only a few of us in that park had reasonable dental care. It was quite disturbing and this was, in the relative term, a rather nice park.
Then we can discuss the issue of race and class. While middle class African-Americans (and many others) wouldn't be caught dead with bad dental care, spend some time in North St. Louis and tell me there isn't a difference in dental care. Perhaps I haven't spent enough time in New York City, but here in the Midwest, there are significant differences in the level of dental care and class is the key difference.
archpundit 4/07/2003 2:11:39 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Who are the Real Civil Libertarians? II
Okay, the cross burning issue is important, but not as dangerous as Mike Hawash's case. TalkLeft has the details of this and this case is chilling in the amount of power it gives the government.
archpundit 4/07/2003 1:28:49 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Organizations Win Championships
And hopefully the Bulls organization can move on from this twit.
While I hope he doesn't have a serious medical condition, my guess is that Reinsdorf got tired of Jerry Krause. Now perhaps, Bill Cartwright can be a real coach and bench some lazy butts.
archpundit 4/07/2003 11:49:25 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
I'll Go One Farther
Kevin Drum is setting his standard for the war as swimming pools of anthrax. As I mentioned previously, I could care less about most chemical and biological weapons. The level of danger simply isn't that great and other regimes were more likely to supply them to terrorists.
The exception being smallpox. If we don't turn up evidence of a nuclear program and/or smallpox, this war was pointless. Nukes are the only real WMD and if he didn't have an active program (and I believe he did), containment would have worked just fine, thank you.
archpundit 4/07/2003 11:44:56 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Who are the Real Civil Libertarians?
The Supreme Court just upheld a ban on cross burning .
This seems to me to be a bad precedent for symbolic speech and for freedom of religion.
archpundit 4/07/2003 10:13:54 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Speaking The Truth
My peverse attraction to underdogs surely comes from their ability to pretty much say what they think and Howard Dean doesn't let me down in BusinessWeek when he argues that further tax cuts are really stupid.
archpundit 4/06/2003 11:04:31 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
A Moment of Silence and a Prayer
for him.
?...And so let freedom ring, from the prodigious hilltops of New Hampshire. Let freedom ring from the mighty mountains of New York. Let freedom ring from the heightening Alleghenies of Pennsylvania. Let freedom ring from the snow-capped Rockies of Colorado. Let freedom ring from the curvaceous slopes of California. But not only that. Let freedom ring from Stone Mountain of Georgia. Let freedom ring from Lookout Mountain of Tennessee. Let freedom ring from every hill and mole hill of Mississippi. From every mountainside, let freedom ring. And when we allow freedom to ring ? when we let it ring from every village and every hamlet, from every state and every city, we will be able to speed up that day when all of God?s children, black men and white men, Jews and Gentiles, Protestants and Catholics, will be able to join hands and sing in the words of the old Negro spiritual: Free at last, free at last. Thank God almighty, we are free at last.?
I visited Stone Mountain for the first time about 10 years after that speech. It made the man alive.
Of course, I still have dreams of blasting his face into the face of the mountain....
archpundit 4/04/2003 9:34:24 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Mighty Smooth Senator Kerry
And DeLay fell right into it. It is bloody obvious the speech was ready before anyone even bothered to criticize Kerry.
Tom DeLay, hear me loud and clear: I speak out for America, not for politics, and as long as I have air in my lungs I will continue to speak my mind ...
And I say to Tom DeLay, one thing I know about America is that in the face of war there are things more important than cutting taxes and it is wrong to reward the wealthiest Americans before we fulfill our solemn obligations to those that have served.
archpundit 4/04/2003 9:23:32 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Appeal Bond Change Dies
Lisa Madigan apparently picked apart the bill in committee and it will die. The issue is the state is now being used as leverage in the negotiations. As such changing the rules is not really fair to the litigants.
archpundit 4/04/2003 5:15:02 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Appeal Bond Change Dies
Lisa Madigan apparently picked apart the bill in committee and it will die. The issue is the state is now being used as leverage in the negotiations. As such changing the rules is not really fair to the litigants.
archpundit 4/04/2003 5:14:18 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
In the Not Often Heard Here Category
Henry Hyde is doing good things to fight AIDs in Africa.
Snarky comments about his past use of condoms won't be found here...for a day or two.
archpundit 4/04/2003 5:09:44 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Temporary Restraining Order on Meigs
Judge orders a temporary injunction.
On top of that, a pilot's union is calling for an economic boycott even though there is an airport 20 minutes or less by train from Meigs.
archpundit 4/04/2003 5:04:50 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
That's Funny
Dust in the Arts argues that he was reasonable:
Actually, I didn't mention anything about race in the original post and added a note (based on a comment) about al Fuqra, a black Muslim group, within an hour of making the entry. Whether the "two clowns" were officially terrorists or not is moot to this little (petty) spat. The point is that, had the police been looking for ? even open to looking for ? Muslims, specifically black Muslims, they would have caught the two much sooner.
What he is missing is that he kept pushing the Islamic Terrorism angle. It had nothing to do with terrorism. It had to do with two kooks. The comment wasn't in regards to his mention of black radicals, indeed it was about his serial efforts to try and blame it on an al Qaeda connection regardless of whether there was evidence for it or not.
He offers no evidence that the police weren't looking at all leads other than some demented sense of whites being victims of the big bad white society.
His point makes no sense because the crime wasn't an act of terrorism as he kept positing. Looking for black muslims in particular only makes sense because of the two individuals. It could have been two white fruitcakes in this case given the motivation. The race and religion didn't play a role in this crime, their mental state did. His obsession on race is irrational. Go figure.
archpundit 4/04/2003 4:55:13 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Meigs Feedback
After the initial shock wore off, Steve Neal has reliably come to Da Mayor's defense. George Ryan doesn't blame him, but he does blame Fitzgerald.
My view is that while it might have not been done as heavy handed as it was, Meigs is much more useful as a park. Air Traffic Controllers are suggesting that their moving will cause a problem--if that is the case, the FAA can keep some one in the area, but still make it a park.
archpundit 4/04/2003 4:25:47 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Wrigley Compromised Reached
It's hard to imagine that Andy McPhail can be that hard to work with and apparently he is not, the City of Chicago and the Cubs came to a compromise language to designate Wrigley Field as a landmark.
archpundit 4/04/2003 4:22:37 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
So Much for Responsible Budgeting from the Republicans
The one advantage of having a relatively close split in the Illinois Senate is that Blagojevich has to pick up some votes on particular bills. Unfortunately, it seems some Republicans rolled over on his pension bond plan.
Don't get me wrong, this may be a good strategy, but I would prefer to have it vetted better. I assume when something is too good to be true, it probably is.
archpundit 4/04/2003 4:14:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
ROTFLMAO
Hesiod takes on Tipper Gore and the rest of the PMRC.
He's on a humor role today.
archpundit 4/04/2003 4:08:57 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
History and Its Importance
A while ago Calpundit poked fun at this Patrick Ruffini for suggesting that the US could take out a dictator every three to six months or so. Kevin was pointing out the difficulties such a program of intervention would entail.
I wonder how many warbloggers agree with this kind of thinking? Are they seriously under the impression that the world can be made a safer place by knocking off miscellaneous dictators a few times a year? And that this would, somehow, reduce the threat from terrorism? And that either (a) we can also help rebuild several countries a year or (b) we don't need to bother?"
The points being would such a strategy be effective in making the world safer, could we rebuild that many countries, and whether some think that is important.
Ruffini responded by misrepresenting Kevin and trying to claim Kevin thinks dictators make the world safer. This, of course, turns Kevin's argument around from one about the impact of such rapid interventions on the likelihood of terrorism, whether it actually makes us safer, and the responsibility of rebuilding to being a binary choice between neo-con visions of glory versus cold-hearted realism. In comments, Patrick insists his comments are meant to say that we could do this, but not that we necessarily should.
Fair enough. But today, Patrick takes on Gary Hart's comments on Hart's blog about foreign policy and his recent speech in San Francisco.
Ruffini makes some strange comments about the speech. So let's compare what Ruffini says compared to Hart:
Ruffini:
Admire what? Does Hart really expect the rest of the world to be bowled over if we simply returned to amoral realpolitik? After neutering our foreign policy and stripping away all those quixotic notions of democratic idealism, what exactly will there be left to respect and admire?
Hart:
America's alliances must be based on more than common enemies and must increasingly require more equitable sharing of the burden of creating stability. Throughout the Cold War our practice of expediency was based on the belief that the enemy of our enemy was our friend. It led us, for example, to support a corrupt and repressive regime in Iran until the Shah fell and then to support an even more dangerous regime in Baghdad in a war against Iranian militants who dethroned the Shah. If that policy of expediency ever served our larger purposes, it no longer does so. And, further, it is against our principles.
This is an explicit rejection of 'amoral realpolitik'.
As is this:
In the closing decades of the Cold War we oscillated between a policy of "values"?human rights?and a policy of "interests"?power and its applications. We should not separate our values from our power or our power from our values. A truly great power exercises that power humanely, judiciously, and fairly to all. Power exercised for its own sake, or for the sake of a selfish or expedient interest, is ultimately self-defeating.
As a successor to the central organizing principle of containment of communism, I am instead offering the framework for a foreign policy based on democratic principles?a policy that is resolute but is also one the American people can be proud of.
Ultimately, it seems Patrick couldn't quite get himself past the bullet points. Gary Hart may have trouble getting through to a younger generation if the attention span is this short.
Ruffini goes on to make several strawman arguments about Hart didn't say. Hart doesn't rule out force as Ruffini claims, he proposes a NATO Intervention Force even.
But one of Ruffini's claims is particularly interesting:
In fairness, Hart does outline two points in his speech that aren't procedural ? using our economic might for foreign aid and, yes, encouraging democracy. The first raises the question of whether Hart is really no better than the "ideologues." If a democratic intervention in Iraq won't work, what makes him think a financial one will? Here, he's just worshipping at a different altar.
If one bothered to finish the speech one is criticizing, the comment is a bit strange. It isn't primarily about Iraq, it is about the synthesis of a policy based in values and interests. That being said, Ruffini might want to note that opening markets is a rather excellent way to encourage democratization. For effective markets there must be property rights. And effective property rights need effective arbiters called courts. And to be effective courts must have some independence which is highly unlikely in dictatorships. A significant pressure on many countries under dictatorial control is economic growth--that pressure can be an effective tool to encourage democratizations. This isn't a new argument, but Ruffini seems completely ignorant of it.
The larger issues presented by these posts include the inability to understand these issues in some sort of historical context. Hart makes an explicit historical argument concerning these issues, but if one is too rooted in the rhetorical excesses of the day one will have no way to address the actual argument made. The more heated of the neo-cons and their supporters do not seem to place any importance of examining how to achieve democracy given our current historical examples. Democracy in most places had to evolve through indigineous political institutions. Those exceptions to this, are exceptions that prove the rule.
Perhaps a more traditional conservative could give them some advice:
Our patience will achieve more than our force.
archpundit 4/04/2003 3:59:58 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
A Fitting Tribute
I'm not sure if I ever commented on Michael Kelly's columns, but to no one's surprise, I thought they were nearly unreadable. It seemed somewhat strange then, that he was editor at two of my favorite magazines, the New Republic and the Atlantic. In fact, he has made the Atlantic one hell of a magazine again. Josh Marshall covers the difference between Kelly's columns and his role as an editor. He will be missed for his excellent work as an editor and my prayer's go out to his loved ones.
archpundit 4/04/2003 12:25:39 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Did CNN Get Hacked?
Because this kind of stupidity would be to implausible to be funny in the Onion.
Woolsey should not be allowed to step foot in Iraq for about 10 years.
Let me make this very clear, if this draws us into a regional conflict involving Syria and Iran, this entire undertaking is a failure. A huge one. We might defeat their armies, but I damn well don't want to see the Israeli response nor do I want to see us occupying an entire region of the world. I'm already disturbed by the lack of an exit strategy in Iraq, I don't even want to contemplate an exit strategy from Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and more. Plus the fall of the Pakistani government.
Update: Go see Duke over at CounterSpin Central
archpundit 4/04/2003 11:26:15 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Supreme Court Decides Iraq
Paul cracks me up.
archpundit 4/04/2003 11:18:32 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Fred Phelps Hates George Bush
One of the more amusing hate mongers out there is Fred Phelps--amusing because of the twisted tree of family relations going on in that organization. I posted on Blog Saint Louis that doofus and gang will be in St. Louis to protest the Laramie Project.
What is a bit stranger is that he seems to protest Bush and Laura Bush with some frequency. Okay.
archpundit 4/03/2003 5:17:12 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Good Day to Be Cub Fan
Steve Traschel is pitching for the Mets. Back when Traschel was a Cub, I was at a horrific game in which the fans started heckling Riggleman to pull him. As I pointed out to the hecklers, there was no one else to put in. He then gave up a homer.
The good news is Traschel gives up home runs like no one else and Sammy needs to move on from 499.
archpundit 4/03/2003 12:58:40 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Carts Before the Horse
This Washington Post Editorial is getting a lot of mention today, as it should. There is also Republican movement in the House to focus on a more international effort and unless we want to be occupying Iraq by ourselves, this seems an obviously good idea with the caveat that we control security concerns during occupation.
What is troubling about the noises out the Pentagon is that they seem to think they are going to impose a government on Iraq. That is a really good way to lose the peace in the occupation. While Afghanistan is clearly different and it is unclear how stable it will be in the long run, one excellent choice there was to convene an Afghan assembly to make specific decisions regarding the first transitional government. Ownership in some form of this government would reduce the inevitable arguments from both Islamists and Baathist remnants that the US is occupying Iraq for its own interests.
If democracy is going to take root in Iraq, it must be through a process that incorporates disparate elements of Iraqi society and not disparate elements of the Bush administration.
This should be self-evident, but the idea that Chalabi can return and be influential is problematic to say the least. Josh Marshall covers this from one angle and makes some important points.
There is another issue here and that is how accepting the Iraqi public will be of those who left. After civil wars or other wars dividing countries' loyalties, those who leave often aren't particularly welcome by those who stayed. Nicaragua provides a somewhat mediocre comparison, but it is one I'm familiar with in terms of what happened when the Sandinistas lost the 1990 election and turned over power to Chamorro.
The 'Miami Boys' were not welcomed back with open arms except financially. Many wealthy Nicaraguans left for Miami and waited out the entire 1980s there. Upon the electoral defeat of the Sandinistas they returned, but even the anti-Sandinistas who were stayed did not care for them. By leaving the Miami Boys missed the hard work of dissenting against a regime that quite often did not tolerate dissent. Those who stayed and fought the Sandinistas politically were much more credible to most Nicaraguans. Assuming that an opportunistic operator will work as a new leader is a very poor assumption.
Perhaps Chalabi isn't as shady as some suggest and he could be a future leader. If that is the case, then the Iraqi people can make that choice in an election later. For now, the US should look to establish civilian leaders who stayed for an interim government.
Interestingly, Karzai fits a somewhat similar model of someone who was at least around if not consistently in Afghanistan during the civil war periods.
archpundit 4/03/2003 12:41:06 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Continuing Coverage of the Nature Conspiracy
is at the Illinois Leader.
It is just a mess, but quite humorous to read.
archpundit 4/03/2003 11:46:45 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Pension Bond Plan Rejected
Blagojevich is going to have to learn that he can't just try and bully Senate Republicans. Some of them are fiscally prudent and a strong plan will pass, but they should be included in the plan.
archpundit 4/03/2003 10:53:12 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Listen to This
Bob Arnot became a true war correspondent last night--MSNBC has it up, here. I'm a bit slow today after staying up to listen.
archpundit 4/03/2003 10:38:06 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Giuliani May Run, but Where?
The Political Wire passes along the information that Giuliani may run for President in 2008. So what magical event is going to make Republicans nominate a pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-gun control candidate?
archpundit 4/03/2003 9:56:57 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
How Flaky Is Kucinich?
I always knew there was something wrong with that boy and now it is all so clear...Kucinich is supported by John Hagelin of the Natural Law Party.
Many are less familiar with the kooks who are the Natural Law Party, but one of their positions is:
? Research on the Fundamentals of Peace. How to access the Unified Field?the fundamental, universal field of peace that lies deep within the consciousness of everyone?in order to generate a global influence of harmony and coherence through collective meditation and other peace-creating technologies.
This, of course, is an off shoot of their prisoner rehabilitation plans to use meditation to rehabilitate prisoners.
The Natural Law Party is the political apparatus of Maharishi University of Management. One of my favorite clubs there is the Yogic Flying club. They apparently have taken down the pictures they used to have where one could figure out yogic flying is flapping your knees really hard in an effort to levitate.
I believe we can guarantee such a candidacy will present no serious problems for anyone besides Dennis Kucinich's political future.
But the good thing is if you are ever travelling through Fairfield, Iowa where the MIM is based (along with newly incorporated Vedhic City), they have some kick-ass vegetarian restaurants.
archpundit 4/03/2003 9:52:41 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Semantic Vandalism Takedown
Fred Kaplan continues his excellent war coverage by pointing out attacking combatants is not terrorism. Are we clear?!
archpundit 4/02/2003 6:12:52 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Rivera Offensive
The Chicago Tribune finds an inhumane, but superior strategy to end the war quickly.
I'll put money down that Steve Chapman wrote this one.
archpundit 4/02/2003 6:02:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
15 Months and Counting
For 15 months Chicago State's Attorney Dick Devine's office has been looking into the case of Daniel Taylor. Taylor was convicted of a murder committed while he was in jail. I have a conclusion in mind as does the Tribune? What is the hold up Mr. Devine?
archpundit 4/02/2003 5:59:28 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Political State Report
Meigs Field errr Park
Illinois isn't just satisfied with screwing up its own budget
Hynes and Pappas 1-2 in new poll
And the worst news of the day is at the Trib---CTA Shuts Down Demon Dogs. Bastards!
archpundit 4/02/2003 5:52:36 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Geraldo vs Arnett
Atrios hits my question put off by a day of meetings yesterday, but could someone explain the differing reactions to the two of them?
There does appear to be one possible reason beside hypocrisy that people treat the two cases so differently---Geraldo is such a bleeping idiot, people expected it out of him.
And Bunning wants to try Arnett for treason. I would think that US Senators would disapprove of a law that equated stupid utterances with treason for obvious reasons.
archpundit 4/02/2003 1:06:55 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
That's Woman to You Dipshit II
Virginia Postrel points out what has already pissed me off.
Lynch is a soldier--show her the respect of treating her like one. We don't send girls or boys into military maneuvers, we send women and men. Or if you can't get that straight...Private or other rank is just fine.
archpundit 4/02/2003 12:40:44 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
I Highly Recommend
this article from the Illinois Leader.
Don't get me wrong, I think the Choose Life license plate obsession of the right wing is weird and completely out of whack to important issues, but whatever. What it does do is show very well how bills get killed in the Illinois House. The creation of sham committees that never meet are used quite often and are an easy way to avoid legislative responsibility.
On the other hand, this whine by Kevin McCollough is poorly informed as usual:
Last Wednesday U. S. Congressman from New York Charlie Rangel said on FOX News Channel, "I don't think we should be bombing women and children..." Even for the mildly maniacal Rangel this was a moment in which he seemed crazed even by his operating norms. The sidewalk warriors went into action and by the end of the week the lunacy had been denounced at every water cooler in the nation.
McCollough might have noticed that Charlie Rangel served in combat in Korea. Whiny punks who have delusions of being sidewalk warriors might criticize his ideas, but damn well not his sanity or right to express himself about war.
archpundit 3/31/2003 11:51:37 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Who Is To Blame for the School Funding Crisis
Well, Democrats can't blame Pate Philip anymore.
What would be most unfortunate is for the courts to decide this instead of the legislature. But it looks like it might come to that if Democrats don't take principled stand. Given Blagojevich was even more hostile to tax increases to solve the problem, as the last three governors have pointed out are necessary, I don't have much hope.
archpundit 3/31/2003 11:20:02 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Blagojevich and the Emerald Licence
Up at the Political State Report
archpundit 3/31/2003 11:15:55 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Let American Die
Conventional wisdom in St. Louis is that American Airlines must be saved to save the hub status in St. Louis. Regular readers know that I think this is incredibly stupid and anti-consumer, but more importantly, efforts to keep inefficient airlines alive hurt consumers by keeping inefficent business models alive. Fortunately, Daniel Gross at Slate agrees.
But maybe they shouldn't. What if we're in the midst of a several-years-long era of lower demand, transparent pricing, and rising competition from upstarts free of expensive contracts and airplane leases? These airlines might emerge from bankruptcy with lower debt loads and better union contracts and find they still can't compete. They might be setting the stage for a round-trip journey to Chapter 11?call it Chapter 22. Perhaps instead of trying to save all our airlines we should let some of them die off.
Amen.
archpundit 3/31/2003 10:41:46 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Mubarak's Hypocrisy
Via CenterPoint:
Mubarak claims the Iraqi war would produce 100 Bin Ladens
Sure and Mubarak's government's continuing repression will lead to 100 Ayman al-Zawahiris.
archpundit 3/31/2003 10:25:04 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Bush League Move By Blago
While I think some of the whining about a New York aide is a bit silly, Rich Miller rightly takes Blagojevich to task for the faux pas of going to a legislative district in a negative mode when there is no campaign.
Rutherford was not amused. "To physically appear in my hometown, a half a block from my legislative office, on a day that I physically cannot be present to talk about something legislatively maybe isn't the best way to encourage something to be accomplished," Rutherford told the Bloomington Pantagraph. "The way to work with Dan Rutherford is to pick up the phone and call."
Rutherford is a straight shooter and this sort of tactic is a good way to piss him off. To make matters worse, Blagojevich isn't going to get far in Pontiac without some nod from one of the state Republican Represenatives or Senators. Pontiac is rock solid Republican town that a Democratic Governor needs to work with not against for support.
archpundit 3/31/2003 10:13:50 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hello Gary!
Gary Hart has added ArchPundit to his blogroll.
Why thanks! and I'll be returning the favor!
I'll be adding Dean's as well, and well one can hope that I'll be able to add a blog by Alan Keyes for the humor value.
Update: It might be helpful to point out that despite writing a book with William Lind, Hart thinks he is a fruitcake.
archpundit 3/31/2003 9:45:15 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Good News over at Cooped Up
Well to me at least...
CUBS WIN! CUBS WIN!
archpundit 3/31/2003 9:25:26 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Neal Bites for the Guv
The Sun-Times came out in support of Blagojevich's plan to restructure Illinois' pension debt. Now, Steve Neal has jumped in trying to sell it as an obvious choice.
The problem is that it isn't clear that the deal is that great and the profits are taken up front. The revenue crunch isn't likely to be one year, though this will be the worst. If a 10 profit is booked upfront, why is that a good thing? It continues the states' tendencies to take one-shot deals to cover continuing expenses.
Not to be overlooked, it assumes that the return will be 6%. While that might be likely, the State of Illinois needs to fully examine the effects if that assumption fails and what it will do to Illinois bond ratings.
Finally, the fact that business supports the idea shouldn't be surprising given Illinois state businesses will benefit from the sale and transactions.
Neal overlooks all of these issues which a responsible legislature should.
archpundit 3/31/2003 5:54:46 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Watching MSNBC
Why does anyone care what Michael Savage thinks about embedding reporters? Admittedly, I'm happy to criticize the military on some things, but I think the generals are capable of making the correct operational security issues.
On the Arnett issue, yeah, Arnett said some pretty stupid things. I think the biggest issue from National Geographic is probably that he didn't clear it and for MSNBC, well, he should have known to parse his comments better. There is a serious question of journalist ethics at issue, but let's be real, the problem was his specific comment.
I'm not even that particularly comfortable with as strong of a conclusion as he made being said over Iraqi television. If he had qualified that a particular tactic hadn't worked, that would be different.
From the journalistic ethics point of view, he became more of a story than a reporter and that is never good.
Finally, the good news, Nathan Bierma confirmed to me that Keith Olbermann is back on MSNBC. That almost makes up for hiring Savage.
On a note about Nathan, I've long been confused as to why the Redeye in Chicago is so concentrated on the deadtree version. I think that might be a part of increasing young readership, but a key component of building young readers is interactivity. A blog, like Nathan's, would be an excellent tool to build the brand. Apparently, the Trib Company doesn't get that. Too bad.
archpundit 3/31/2003 5:37:26 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Red Team Blues
Fred Kaplan reminds us of General Van Riper's ability to "be a real pain in the ass", by actually fighting instead of laying down during exercises.
I think it is clear the best case hasn't played out. That doesn't mean we are doomed or that this is a disaster. The US will win, and hopefully, our losses won't be too severe. There are some nightmare scenarios that could evolve with Syria or Iraq, but those aren't likely to be immediate concerns. Short term, we'll win, and long term we need to find a way to manage a very difficult country.
The Armed Forces response to Van Riper is familiar to those who follow any bureaucratic agency, but in particular the armed forces. Richard Marcinko used to get the brass pulling out their hair when he ran a Red Cell team that checked base security. Marcinko is a bit self-serving, but the basic point remains that bad news is often buried or prevented from occurring. Marcinko was repeatedly overruled and hated for exposing the weaknesses in bases' defenses at one point flying a Soviet Flag and saluting it as he went past a sub base taking pictures--and no one noticed. The Armed Forces don't like bad news, but the hard truth is that bad news tells you when you need to innovate.
It is clear that some of our troops were surprised by fake surrenders and other such tactics. Why not? Probably not enough bad news was believed.
archpundit 3/28/2003 5:36:39 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Energy: The Adults Are Back In Charge
In the rush to blame everything that was wrong in California on the most obnoxious Democratic politician in America, a little problem crept up. Gray Davis didn't design the regulatory framework for deregulation of power in California, Pete Wilson did. It is clear now that the power suppliers gamed the system and screwed the good people of California. Of course, this doesn't account for how Dick Cheney could be so clueless. Willfully clueless.
California botched dereg under Wilson when his appointees handed the rule making process over to energy companies. Gray Davis deserves most of the scorn he gets, but in this case, the administration looked the othwer whay while millions of people were bilked by crony capitalism at its worst.
archpundit 3/28/2003 11:44:51 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Turkey: The Adults are Back In Charge
Anyone remember when George Bush claimed US Foreign Policy would be more humble under his watch?
He was wrong and the perfect example is Turkey. How strong of an ally is Turkey? Despite 94% public disapproval of the Iraq War, allowing the US to use Turkey to stage attacks came within a handful of votes of passing. Reading the article it is clear that Turkey miscalculated as well, but the essential lesson for the US is that we were arrogant and assumed their cooperation when it wasn't a sure thing. Instead of massaging the relationship, we tried to push them around and it didn't work. The Northern Front would have been helpful and it was doable.
Link Via Talking Points Memo
archpundit 3/28/2003 11:14:48 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Bring On the Loons
Via Berger:
Happy Times are here again...Head St. Louis GOP Loon Bill Federer is considering another race for the 3rd District.
In the same article, it looks like Carnahan might be entering the race making it a three-way with Stoll and Favazza. Of course, does one count Favazza as one person? Given his heft he might be worth three people or none given his lack of political heft. The interesting aspect of the development is that Carnahan had been rumored to be recruited for a state-wide run. His comments suggest he is headed for a try at Congress.
Back to the loon. One of Federer's more amusing tactics was to sue Gephardt for breaking into his and his brother's office. Who broke in on behalf of Gephardt? Unidentified individuals. Uh-huh.
He got into a tussle with a student intern that taped him at a parade--though he was acquitted of assault.
From the P-D 2000 coverage some other irregularities include:
* Mr. Federer's former campaign manager has met with Gephardt aides and allegedly told them that Mr. Federer had failed to report political gifts.
* St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Robert McCulloch has asked federal authorities to investigate Mr. Federer's failure to report the proceeds from the sale of a book of religious quotes from national leaders.
* Attorney General Jay Nixon is investigating allegations of self-dealing between Mr. Federer, a Catholic charity his family runs and the Federer real estate company.
The Post-Dispatch did a good piece of investigative reporting in October of 2000. The last bullet above is the most interesting. The family runs a Catholic Charity and essentially what is a fundamentalist Catholic charity that owns a building which brings in income for rents of around $226,000. Those rents go directly to the Federer family real estate management company. Non-profits are prohibited from paying directors for services. Duh. The Federer's don't seem to understand the conflict and actually tried to defend the relationship. And Bill Federer was paid significantly for managing the property, yet many tenants claim not to have seen him for quite some time.
But he sued Gephardt for break-ins by unknown assailants. Uh-huh.
Federer is a social conservative who rails against teaching evolution and the usual litany of social ills. On top of that, he is a complete loon. I hope the Republicans run him becaue he is great political theater. And the Democratic candidate will have it even easier.
archpundit 3/28/2003 10:31:47 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
More Important Stuff
Popcorn is now the official Illinois State Snack.
archpundit 3/27/2003 3:36:04 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Quote of the Day
I'm having a hard time deciding who is stupider. Is it people who have their tongues split or legislators who feel the situation is in desperate need of being outlawed.
Rep. Ron Stephens, R-Troy, was the only legislator who did not vote "yes" to the bill. He voted "present" because the bill had no merit, he said.
"There is no necessity for this," Stephens said. "If this gets carried away and needs to be regulated like we do the tattoo parlors, then I've outlived my usefulness in the General Assembly."
archpundit 3/27/2003 3:31:26 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Face it, Madigan Just Doesn't Care
Many in Illinois are up in arms because Madigan is giving staffers double digit raises during a budget crisis. These people assume that Madigan cares how it looks. They are hopelessly naive.
archpundit 3/27/2003 3:22:29 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
That's Woman to You Dipshit
First girl lost in the war
archpundit 3/27/2003 1:41:35 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Double-Down on the Middle East
Chris Mathews has made the argument that the Iraqi invasion will bring about 1,000 years of hatred of the west by Arabs. For a variety of reasons, I don't buy this argument. The war will be short enough and even a botched reconstruction will result in a better outcome than Saddam. It won't win us many friends either, but wars generally don't.
Josh Marshall has written an excellent article that explains the neo-cons plans for the Middle East and sums it up quite well:
The audacious nature of the neocons' plan makes it easy to criticize but strangely difficult to dismiss outright. Like a character in a bad made-for-TV thriller from the 1970s, you can hear yourself saying, "That plan's just crazy enough to work."
But like a TV plot, the hawks' vision rests on a willing suspension of disbelief, in particular, on the premise that every close call will break in our favor: The guard will fall asleep next to the cell so our heroes can pluck the keys from his belt. The hail of enemy bullets will plink-plink-plink over our heroes' heads. And the getaway car in the driveway will have the keys waiting in the ignition. Sure, the hawks' vision could come to pass. But there are at least half a dozen equally plausible alternative scenarios that would be disastrous for us.
How are these two bits connnected? Well, the neo-cons apparently like to do things big, such an effort would not lead to 1,000 years of hatred, but 2,000.
Of course, this entire endeavor would be the US alone. Blair and Great Britain seem to have some sense of history and remember when they got booted out of the region and they aren't looking for a rematch. Beyond that it is hard to imagine such an effort being tolerated by the US public. Iraq was a tough sell and trying to convince the public that the entire Middle East is a threat isn't going to go very far.
archpundit 3/27/2003 1:40:23 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Why I am Liberal
The central liberal truth is that politics can change a culture and save it from itself.
(quote via Kaus)
Attacked for pointing out that unstable homes in the African-American community reinforced poverty and above all, kept children from reaching their full potential as human beings, Daniel Patrick Moynihan died yesterday.
For some time he has been seen as a liberal icon for intelligent discourse on a variety of issues ranging from social security reform to foreign policy. But his true legacy will be changing welfare and policy for the poor from one of entitlements versus doing nothing to a debate about how to empower poor families to achieve a meaningful and joyous lives. He fought liberals when the refused to see the cultural problems leading to generations of poverty and he fought conservatives when they didn't care.
He reformed welfare in 1988 into a program that encourage work for the sake of the recipient. That reform fundamentally changed the system regardless of what conservatives want to claim. Work became part of the process as was education. The states were forced to deal with day care and single mothers in a constructive way for the first time.
He fought welfare reform in 1996 because he saw that reform as punitive. He was right. While a good economy has mitigated the impacts, the likely long run effect for those mired in the worst poverty is a revolving door of low-wage low-skill jobs with little opportunity for advancement. Despite what some have claimed, having a job that goes nowhere isn't necessarily an improvement in the long run. The 1996 reform was a cheap and easy way out of dealing with some of the most difficult issues any society faces. As a liberal, I still believe we can create a system that looks to improve lives over punishing them.
archpundit 3/27/2003 1:23:00 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Iraqi Strategery
Kos is doing a bang up job summarizing the state of the war and battles within the larger war. He points out one of the most fortunate aspects of this war, the Iraqi incompetence on the battlefield. Reports yesterday indicated a thousand vehicle convoy left its positions and was moving towards the US forces. More recent reports are a bit less clear, but this may be repositioning. Either way, it is really stupid. Schwartzkopf, on MSNBC last night, seemed to forget his famous appraisal of Saddam, and seemed befuddled that any army would do something as stupid as give up its secured positions when it was vulnerable.
Apparently, you can't fix stupid.
While I hope we don't face significant casualties and McCaffrey is wrong about the consequences of going forward without more forces, if he is right, we need to be looking for a different Secretary of Defense who is more concerned about troops and not doctrine.
archpundit 3/27/2003 12:42:16 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
If A Shadow Government Exists
but no one cares, does it matter? John Hagelin of Maharishi University of Management in Fairfield, Iowa, former Presidential Candidate for the Natural Law Party, and all around loon is forming a shadow government.
Their primary focus will be flapping their thighs and pretend to be levitating.
archpundit 3/26/2003 4:32:24 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
No Racism Here, Move Along Now
Via Atrios:
Charles Johnson says:
Since the media?s barrage of images of Corrie looking Caucasian and saintly has not abated, every time I cover a story about her I?m going to repost one of these photographs, unmasking the hidden face of Rachel Corrie.
Now how does she not look caucasion in the pic?
I believe the response is something about, "you know what I mean"
And yes I do. And as a warning, LGF is one of the more hateful little hellholes on the net.
archpundit 3/26/2003 3:48:12 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Adults are Back in Charge
Cellucci joins in the bashing of close allies and Daniel Drezner starts with three reasons this is stupid.
The Shorter Drezner is:
1) Don't make empty threats
2) Don't bother criticizing actions beyond the scope of the federal government.
3) Don't make the Iraq question a make-or-break one for allies.
Why does this have to be pointed out?
And I'll add threatening to slow the border is bad for trade and thus bad fore everyone.
archpundit 3/26/2003 3:24:22 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Maybe Not God, but Damn Funny
Via Nathan Newman:
John Stewart:
Speaking of the Haliburton contract in Iraq:
On the bright side, I won my office pool. On the other hand, hearing that does make me feel like the government just took a shit on my chest (shit bleeped)...Of course, Haliburton has refused to disclose the value of the contract, but company spokesmen said, well we're going to do alright on this one.
[Cut to "senior correspondent" Steve Colbert]
Jon, keeping in mind that Haliburton was a major campaign contributor to the campaign and Dick Cheney was the former CEO, this move is extremely...I'm a bit of a stickler for language...if this word was a flavor, it would be a thick brown taste in the back of your throat, an acrid tang of decay, like you're rotting from the inside...I've tried appalling, shameful, reprehensible-- I've tried cramming words together, greed-ragicous, backstabtastick, and Christ-just-when-I-was-beginning-to-buy-their-line-of-crappical, but nothing quite captures it.
Let me repeat:
I've tried cramming words together, greed-ragicous, backstabtastick, and Christ-just-when-I-was-beginning-to-buy-their-line-of-crappical, but nothing quite captures it.
archpundit 3/26/2003 12:20:16 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Faux News is just Bad
I'm watching the BBC when possible
So I'm definitely not in the Fox target audience, but their anchors are just horrible, how does anyone watch that crap. It is true that Aaron Brown and Lester Holt should have been stationed in the former home of Iraqi TV, but the guys on Fox are right out of the 5 PM news in Decatur, Illinois. Their war porn isn't even as good.
I get the screaming head deal and why it attracts a big audience normally, but it is torture trying to get information out of their 'reporters' other than Hume.
Oh and for those hits I've been getting from search engines about Lester Holt smirking, he has been that way since Chicago. Pretty much he could announce armageddon while smirking and doing a deep intonation.
Then again, I'm not exactly the target audience as I mentioned previously.
archpundit 3/26/2003 12:32:02 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Admittedly...
There are a small number of companies that can fight oil well fires, but Haliburton had better have to bid on something from this war.
archpundit 3/26/2003 12:19:50 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Reason For Strong Iraqi Resistance
Is that Major Tom Jones had some comments on the war.
Could this be why the Iraqis are putting up such a fight?
archpundit 3/26/2003 12:06:05 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Let 'em Have It
The predictable members of the blogosphere are getting their stockings in a bunch because the French want a role in the rebuilding of Iraq.
The thing is rebuilding Iraq may well be the booby prize that we really don't want. Conquering Iraq is the relatively easy part and while we will see more casualties, they might pale in comparison to a prolonged or botched occupation. I have no desire to fight a guerilla war in Southwest Asia--especially against Islamists.
I hope we allow the UN to come in and bear some of the monetary costs as well as burden the peace keeping tasks which after a while inevitably turn into tension.
I'm not really upset if France gets excluded, but let's not get in a pique as Lieberman has.
archpundit 3/26/2003 12:01:16 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Importance of Turkey
A very good column on the importance of Turkey is in today's Sun-Times---by John O'Sullivan.
The public embarrasment of Turkey through ham-handed tactics was counterproductive in the short term-and dead wrong treatment for a steadfast ally of the US.
UPDATE: Josh Marshall tackles the same subject.
archpundit 3/25/2003 2:45:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Illinois Legislative Stuff
Rich Miller points out that when judges sue the state, they win
NEWS OF THE DAY The Senate will likely take up legislation this week to restore scheduled cost of living raises that the legislature stripped from judges last year in a budget-cutting move. The Constitution forbids the General Assembly from reducing judges' salaries, and some jurists have threatened to sue. Since Illinois judges would be handling the case about their own salaries, the outcome is all but assured. So, rather than deal with a no-win court fight, a bill will be run.
* The Senate narrowly approved legislation yesterday that will allow the sale of hypodermic syringes without a prescription.
Strangely enough, this second bill is Rauschenberger's baby. He sees it as an issue for diabetics and views the drug war restrictions as unreasonable.
archpundit 3/25/2003 1:53:48 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Semantic Vandalism
Digby addresses the misuse of the term terrorism. Now, I think Digby goes to far in saying Rumsfeld doesn't expect them to fight. What the Iraqis are doing in the fake surrendering is wrong and violates commonly held rules of war.
Rumsfeld is debasing the language as many others have taken to over the last many months in calling such actions terrorism. Terrorism is the attacking of civilian populations to further political goals. The Iraqis involved in these battles are fighting a war against armed forces and while they may be considered to be violating laws regarding fighting wars, they are not terrorists.
Being out of uniform is a violation of the Geneva Conventions as well, though we violate it quite a bit--that is the point of relaxed grooming standards.
archpundit 3/25/2003 1:37:38 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
What If Bill Clinton had Proposed
The same plan as Bush did for veteranss affairs.
Notice that both Chris Smith and Lane Evans agree on this issue.
archpundit 3/25/2003 1:18:01 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Bad Bush Day
Barbara Bodine, come on down.
Just go read it and explain the possible reason the Administration could be this dense.
archpundit 3/25/2003 12:53:35 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Brass vs. Pol Appointees
Via Kos:
Suddenly, the government of the United States has discovered the virtues of international law. It may be waging an illegal war against a sovereign state; it may be seeking to destroy every treaty which impedes its attempts to run the world, but when five of its captured soldiers were paraded in front of the Iraqi television cameras on Sunday, Donald Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, immediately complained that "it is against the Geneva convention to show photographs of prisoners of war in a manner that is humiliating for them".
Err...actually the brass pointed this out to the political appointees a while ago. They have a vested interest in keeping the Geneva Convention strong--apparently the political appointees don't understand that issue.
archpundit 3/25/2003 12:50:30 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
I Will No Longer Make Fun of McCaffrey
Watching TV last night, Barry McCaffrey (failed drug warrior, but Gulf War Commander of the 24th Infrantry) was starting to raise some issues given the type of deployment. His views are well covered here.
This new warfare meme is cute and all, but I'd rather just have the most overwhelming force available. We are doing well, but I see no reason to not overcompensate.
archpundit 3/25/2003 12:45:52 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Intelligent Talk Radio
From Berger
When a caller on Charles Jaco's morning drive-time show praised radio ranter Michael Savage on Wednesday, Jaco snorted in derision and then proceeded to savage Savage's qualifications as a pundit. What made the rip so interesting is the fact that both men's shows are carried on the same station - KFTK-FM (97.1).
Gotta love Jaco. His show has been pretty good with the war.
archpundit 3/24/2003 4:50:17 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Ahhh, Chris Lauzen, CPA
The Leader does a puff piece on Chris Lauzen (R-Batavia).
Lauzen's name should never be mentioned in print without recapping his ridiculous effort to have his name officially changed to Chris Lauzen, CPA.
Steve Neal addressed it in March of 2001:
State Sen. Christopher J. Lauzen (R-Aurora) is going to court this month to have his name changed to "Christopher J. Lauzen, CPA."
Lauzen, 48, the 1998 Republican nominee for state comptroller, is adding the three letters to his name because he's still angry about an opponent's radio commercial that claimed Lauzen wasn't a licensed certified public accountant. What is strange about Lauzen's name change is that he won the Republican primary over this opponent.
Political rival Harry Seigle's ad suggested that Lauzen was overstating his credentials. Lauzen recently told the Associated Press that although he doesn't have a license to handle audits, he has state certification as an accountant. Lauzen says that he is changing his name to clear up any confusion about his professional status.
But in asking the Kane County Circuit Court's permission to change his name, Lauzen is calling attention to an issue that was a nonstarter and making himself look silly. If becoming a household word is his goal, he could do worse than changing his name to "Christopher J. Lauzen, goofball."
It's not all that unusual for politicians to legally adopt a more exciting ballot name than the one they were born with. Just as movie stars take on stage names that are designed to capture the public's imagination, political hopefuls also play the name game.
Usually the candidates seeking this kind of attention are long shots. Mike the Mover, who ran for mayor of Seattle in 1997, legally acquired this moniker to promote his campaign and his moving business. The voters sent him packing.
The director of Nebraska's Turtle Conservation Project, Angelika Byorth, legally changed her name last year to "Turtle Lady" and then ran for the state legislature.
Before his 1992 race for the U.S. House from the Northwest Side's 5th District, businessman Elias R. Zenkich changed his middle name to "Non-Incumbent." If he had been elected, Zenkich would have presumably dropped his self-styled nickname. The voters let him keep it.
Former Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun (D-Ill.) was less than pleased when Lauryn Valentine obtained court approval to change her name to Carol Moseley-Braun. When the copycat then attempted to run for the City Council from the 37th Ward, the court withdrew its permission and gave the senator back her name.
Arthur L. Janura Jr. set himself apart from other judicial hopefuls by misrepresenting his name for political advantage. When he ran for the Circuit Court in 1990, it was as a Democrat and under his full name. After losing, Janura learned that female candidates tended to get more votes than men in judicial elections. Four years later, he made another run for the court, this time as a Republican, with the ballot name of "A. Laurin Janura." I'm surprised he didn't buy radio ads with "I Enjoy Being a Girl" as his theme song. Janura's shameless misrepresentation didn't work. The former Betty Jean Perske had better luck in changing her name to Lauren Bacall.
Janura, who later got appointed as an associate judge, has reverted to his first ballot name.
What is unusual about Lauzen's name change is that he's had a fairly successful political career. He is one for one in contested statewide primaries and, though he did poorly in the general election, might try again. But in adding "CPA" to his name, he's acting like a goofball.
Lauzen adds new meaning to the phrase, petty twit.
archpundit 3/24/2003 4:41:32 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Two Posts up at Political State Report
Jess McDonald quits, Blagojevich in disarray
Blagojevich's Funky Accounting
archpundit 3/24/2003 4:17:22 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Strangelove Moments: Den Beste Channels Huntington
In the ongoing effort to spew ignorance without actually reading much about the topic, Den Beste has called for a war to destabilize the Middle East. One then gets lost in his rantings about Islam and Arab culture which is both the same and different depending on which sentence of which one is trying to make sense.
Not surprisingly, Den Beste still can't seem to figure out that a less loopy, but just as fascist of a tract, was written by Samuel Huntington. Of course, Den Beste has a lot on his mind with the possibility that France may be nuking us soon...
archpundit 3/24/2003 11:50:07 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Cynicism? Yes. Shocked and Awed by the Administration
While one might question my quest to ever be cynical in light of my generally positive views on the war to date, let me assure you, the administrations little bullshit move to to take secret bids for the rebuilding of Iraq fully has my attention and has shocked and awed me in the level of gullibility they think the US public will tolerate. This is a campaign issue and war profiteering stinks to voters.
archpundit 3/23/2003 12:08:59 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Errr...I think Our Troops Doing Quite Well
Some have suggested that our troops are meeting stronger resistance than expected. I'd suggest that anyone who thinks that this is
a) strong resistance is a bit loopy. In a few short days we have covered more ground than either side in the 8 year Iran-Iraq war.
b) an example of Generals underestimating the other side is wishing too hard. While all warplans have surprises, this is incredibly smoothly. War produces casualties and the casualties in this one are almost all on one side.
Daniel Drezner comes up with a good reason why we may be seeing different views:
"'If you're the corporal in the lead vehicle that's getting shot at, then you would call that stiff resistance. But if you're the division commander and you're moving 30, 50, 60 miles in one day, that's no resistance,' said Col Ben Hodges, commander of the 1st Brigade of the 101st Airborne at Camp Pennsylvania, Kuwait.
'At the moment, the main thing that's slowing the forces is the ability of the fuel trucks to keep up with them.'"
archpundit 3/23/2003 12:04:40 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Because I don't Mention it enough
Jim Capozzola is upset because TRR doesn't get enough respect. He is right--Go Visit
archpundit 3/22/2003 11:53:25 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Glennuation
If they guy is a Muslim, does that mean his actions are because he is Muslim?
I'm willing to wait to know something about the actual attack before making such a decision. Interesting Reynolds compares it to the D.C. Sniper in which John Muhammed was a Muslim, but that appears to have nothing to do with the actual reason for the crime.
If the soldier is guilty and a Muslim, it may well be that instability led to being a Muslim, especially in the case of the Nation of Islam, and the instability led to the attack.
But the most important thing to understand is that we just don't know at this point. I've often argued law profs need classes in correlation and causation, this is especially true in Reynolds case.
archpundit 3/22/2003 11:22:13 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
What Would Make this Pointless?
As someone who supports military action in Iraq, albeit by a far different route than the one that got us here, if there is not significant evidence that Hussein was continuing his efforts to obtain nuclear weapon capability, this will be a huge mistake.
While chemical and biological weapons are pernicious and horrible, the only real reason to fear that we couldn't contain and deter him is if he would obtain nuclear weapons. My standard is relatively low--I'm not looking for evidence he could have weapons in a year, but in the forseeable future.
I expect to find evidence of an ongoing nuclear program, but if not, I'll be happy to admit this was an immoral exercise. At the same time, nuclear capability amongst rogue states is a legitimate reason for military intervention. The question in alternative cases such as North Korea or, say, Pakistan, is whether we can act effectively. In North Korea, that doesn't appear to be the case.
It could be the case in Iran, but that would seem to be most effectively dealt with by an Osirik type raid.
archpundit 3/22/2003 11:12:32 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Scared
News that a Marine from Bloomington was killed in action was a bit too close for me--one of the few people who may be in harms way and I know, is a Marine from Bloomington. My prayers to the family, and my friend.
archpundit 3/22/2003 10:50:39 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
So am I to understand
Fox is claiming Scuds have been fired, but Centcom is claiming they haven't? Or has Fox gone back on the claim? I can't watch Fox for more than 5 minutes. I mean as annoying as Brown is and as smirky as Lester Holt, the clowns on Fox are like the 3rd rated newscast in a mid-sized market.
archpundit 3/22/2003 10:43:41 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Semantic Vandalism
While we now know that is was probably an internal attack, it is not terrorism to attack uniformed soldiers. If someone could bludgeon Aaron Brown every time he or some other idiot at CNN said that it was an act of terrorism, the world would be a better place. Actually, if someone would just bludgeon Aaron and Wolf everytime they say Shock and Awe, we would definitely have a better world.
Terrorism is an act of political violence against civilians.
archpundit 3/22/2003 10:35:15 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
School Funding Crisis at
Political State Report
archpundit 3/21/2003 5:35:00 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Shrillness
isn't always bad. The problem with the Bush Administration 'budgeting' isn't that they are arguing for a radical change, it is that they are trying to create radical change without arguing about it.
archpundit 3/21/2003 1:11:06 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
I let loose on the Illinois Political System
Over at the Political State Report
archpundit 3/21/2003 12:55:33 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Israeli 'Fudges'
Kevin also asked about Israeli lying to the US. I don't really understand the distinction of to one's face lying as compared to just lying. It seems to me that the first is only important if one is running diplomacy by personal feelings, which is inappropriate in the first place.
Two of the biggest examples are the Pollard spying case (and other instances) and the provision of nuclear technology to South Africa throughout the 1970s and 1980s.
There are numerous examples if one includes misusing US military and non-military aid for forbidden purposes. One of the more egregious examples is the Osirik bombing, a bombing I think was a good idea. However, by the letter of American law and the agreements the US had with Israel such uses of military equipment were forbidden. Reagan made this point far stronger than I ever would have, but it was considered at the time a serious break in the two countries working relationship. We still maintained a strong relationship despite the event or the two events above.
archpundit 3/21/2003 12:05:45 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
German Reluctance =/ German Hostility
Kevin made some comments and I'm responding to them here--go down to the Navel Gazing post comments for the original discussion. I think his comments posed good questions, though I strongly disagree with him.
I don't see any evidence that Bush is acting on feelings towards Germany - it's just Schroeder he can't stand. But with the end of the cold war, is Germany truly an ally, or just another country we do business with?
Given German soldiers have only fought twice outside of Germany since the end of World War II and both of those wars were American led, I don't understand why people insist that Germans aren't allies of the United States. In fact, given the modern German public's preference for non-military solutions, I find their record remarkably pro-US.
Being an ally doesn't mean one is a sockpuppet for the other country, it means you share common interests and you work together for those interests. Many times you may not have common strategies and that is just part of the deal.
France is a different deal. During the Cold War France often stuck a stick in the spokes simply because they could. There are times we can work with France, but clearly, we don't expect them to be there in many cases. Germany isn't going to be there every time we want to do something because they don't act as frequently as we do.
As far as not liking Schroeder, so what? The first Bush seemed to have a rather notable dislike of Yitzak Shamir, yet he still worked with him on most issues--except the settlements and Bush was right there. The problem with the current criticisms of Germany is that they are almost entirely ahistorical. Now, some in Germany have the same problem in relation to the US, but why would we exacerbate a relationship that is in our interest? Because we don't like someone? If that is a criteria we want to go by, there aren't many world leaders who like George Bush even amongst our stronger allies.
The problem isn't entirely Schroeder, the vast majority of Germans including the Christian Democrats are against military action in Iraq. Schroeder's people have exacerbated the problem, but the snits are turning into 3rd grade insults and barbs about who started the snarkiness. All of this was going on while seven Germans died in Afghanistan as part of NATO operations.
Again, if you can't trust the leader of the country, can you trust that country with that leader, and if you can't trust the country, can they be an ally?
What is it about Germany we can't trust? That Schroeder wasn't completely forthcoming regarding a resolution in the United Nations? I'm terribly confused because Germany was pretty damn clear about their views on Iraq throughout the buildup to the war.
I'm especially troubled if Bush is making policy based on personal relationships. Policy might be furthed by personal relationships, but it shouldn't be made by those relationships. They have absolutely nothing to do with the security of the United States.
archpundit 3/21/2003 11:55:30 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Fawell and Citizens for Ryan GUILTY
DUH--on all counts. More tomorrow.
BTW, this is only the third campaign committee ever indicted and now convicted. Ryan's up next.
archpundit 3/19/2003 6:01:14 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Frank Deford Captures the Stupidity of Anti-French Rhetoric
Go listen.
The dangers of Larry Bird and French Lick--never mind the France family.
archpundit 3/19/2003 12:23:34 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Aziz Goes to the Kurds
Well hell, if we are going to treat this like a ballgame, let's just do it.
Via Counterspin Central
First, Tariq Aziz became a free agent and signed on with the Kurds.
From Debka it looks like there are significant signs of military defections. If accurate, a lot fewer lives will be lost. God willing.
Reading down all the updates of Counterspin--we have certainly entered the fog of war period.
UPDATE: Oops, he apparently just showed up on Iraqi TV. I'm sure the first of many errors.
archpundit 3/19/2003 10:47:45 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
I hope this is simply Media Navel Gazing
Waiting for the war to break out, but TNR writes that much of our problem repairing relationships with our allies other than the French may be hindered by Dubya's bizarre sense of loyalty.
Diplomacy isn't about feelings, it is about projecting power.
archpundit 3/19/2003 10:14:47 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Freedom Suits
Via Virginia Postrel:
Somethine I take entirely for granted, the St. Louis Circuit Court Historical Records Project. This is a multi-university project along with multiple state agencies that preserve the Court Records from early in Missouri's history including the Freedom Suits. Not surprising to those in St. Louis, Wayne Fields has taken a significant role.
The LA Times does a piece on it today.
archpundit 3/19/2003 10:01:26 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Birchers?
So Joe Conason calls Cheney a Bircher. Is he right? Pretty much. It is reasonable to argue that the UN isn't perfect or to even propose a better alternative. However, as with nearly all of this administration's foreign policy initiatives, the administration is not only trashing an international agreement, arrangement, or institution, but refusing to propose an alternative.
Perhaps that is unfair, the US unilaterally acting or acting with a small number of allies is an alternative, just not a good long term strategy.
It isn't the criticism of an international institution that is the problem, it is the absolute refusal to offer any alternatives that is quickly pushing away those who should be our allies.
archpundit 3/18/2003 5:14:05 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Two Post Up at Political State Report
The first is a general recap of the politics of O'Hare Expansion.
The second covers Blagojevich's inability to put together a Cabinet.
archpundit 3/18/2003 5:05:02 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
If Horowitz didn't exist
Saturday Night Live would have to invent him. He responds to Josh Marshall's response to his ranting and calls out Marshall again.
I find it hard to determine if the whole act is just a way to get more donors as Josh Marshall has suggested previously, or if Horowitz is so incredibly dim-witted he can't actually tell that his whole victimhood schtick is the ultimate in PC whining. Then again, either way it is pretty damn funny--well except some people actually believe him.
archpundit 3/18/2003 4:02:47 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Strangelove Moments: Good News
France won't be nuking the US, it will be turning on Chirac once NATO and the UN crash and burn.
Of course, the bad news is that Bush gave Saddam 48 hours. There is apparently some great risk to this.
archpundit 3/18/2003 12:19:35 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Go Read Scoobie
And be truly stunned that Congressional Republicans are farther out there than Jack Chick. I wonder what the Members of Congress think about Masons?
archpundit 3/18/2003 11:55:39 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Daley Times unsheathes the knives
The Sun-Times begins to take on some rather odd income for the Daley relatives. No one can exactly explain where much of it comes from and when they can, it is from sources that have ties to organized crime. Brown sums it up quite well.
Oh, and remember that with telecommunications reregulation, the head of SBC is Bill Daley. SBC is trying to sell it as dereg, but that is semantic vandalism. Deregulation was breaking up the monopoly of providing both service and lines into a monopoly over lines, but multiple service choices. SBC is trying to reregulate the system to effectively return their monopoly. Not only is it bad for consumers, it is bad for economic growth.
archpundit 3/18/2003 11:25:25 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Many Thanks to
Atrios and Jeanne D'Arc for adding me to the blog rolls. I'm big fans of both sites. Eschaton is one of the larger referrers since linking to me.
And of course, many, many thanks to Daily Kos, MyDD, Tom Spencer, Max,Jim Capozzola, and Cursor for consistently providing a lot of refferals. All are on the blog roll and all are worth visiting. And special thanks to Liberal Oasis who links to both this site and Blog Saint Louis.
Thanks to everyone else, and I'll try and highlight some of those lower traffic sites over the next couple weeks.
archpundit 3/17/2003 11:38:16 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Media Watch: When a Former Governor isn't a Former Governor
When the former Governor is a paid lobbyist, headlining an article Ex-governor urges cap on appeal bonds really misses the point. Thompson was a good governor, but let's not forget where his interests are now. I believe Phil Kadner pointed this out when he was appointed to Blagojevich's transition team.
archpundit 3/17/2003 11:22:06 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Daniel Drezner on Diplomacy
Daniel Drezner argues that the ultimate outcome of the diplomacy isn't far off of what another strategy might have produced, namely, that UN approval wouldn't have been given.
I guess I never held UN Approval as the only measure of success, but as a strategy to bring along allies with concerns. We didn't necessarily have to get UN Approval, but seeking approval should have enabled us to bring along allies who had populations worried about the war.
Pissing on the leg of a great deal of our allies I figured could be avoided, and the administration has done a fine job of drinking extra water to ensure every chance to do so wasn't wasted. Pissing off the French isn't exactly the worst thing in the world and an effective strategy, as Drezner points out, would have done accomplished that far better than the current outcome. Instead, we made it harder for our traditional allies to side with us. Dan makes some of these points, but it seems to excuse much of the ineptitude and petty sniping that has characterized the diplomatic effort.
Instead of using this as an opportunity to build a working coalition and show up French intransigence, we made them look reasonable and didn't build much of a functioning coalition. Such a move would have strengthened our hand for future crises instead of weakening it. While Iraq is important, our allies, alliances, and, yes, even the UN are essential for projecting our values and interests in the international order.
I don't think Drezner and I are that far apart, except that I started with incredibly low expectations of this administration and even those couldn't be met.
In the Bush Amen corner:
I think it was a mistake to go the Security Council route. But I think that France's backstabbing surprised almost everyone, not just the Bush Administration. In retrospect, we probably should have recognized that self-aggrandizing yet self-defeating diplomacy is a French hallmark, and that we shouldn't have believed French promises.
But you have to give Bush credit -- though few will -- in that he's bent over backward to try to let the international system demonstrate relevance and competence. And by doing so he has made abundantly plain that the United Nations is a joke, and that France and Germany are not our friends, but (France, especially) our would-be rivals. And there's value in that.
That said, I wouldn't have gone to the Security Council at all. And you can bet that neither the United States, nor any other power, is likely to do so ever again.
Bush bent over backwards? No. Bending over backwards was actual active diplomacy that built upon relationships as Bush's father did in 1991 and sending out your top people to talk and cajole and offer. Powell didn't do that and Rumsfeld did a rather amazing job of taking delight in pissing off our allies. This was an exercise in tearing down relationships and it shows. The big deal isn't the effect on Iraq, it is the effect on the future when we need strong allies.
Maybe there won't be much permanent damage to our long term allies and alliances. I hope that is the case. But the way this is going the only thing that could go worse is if Tony Blair loses the Prime Minister's position over this war. Imagine the signal that would send to future British politicians about strongly backing American allies.
archpundit 3/17/2003 11:16:24 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Explanations
For the Lott Post below let me fix up some of the stats. Using the Wilson Method (I used both that and the traditional method below), if one takes the number of Defensive Gun Uses (DGUs)--13-- and compares that to the number of reported incidents in which the gun is fired--1, the 95 percent confidence interval is 1.4 percent to 33.3 percent. This means, assuming that his survey was adequate in all other ways, in looking at the number of incidents of DGUs alone, the only reasonable conclusion one could draw is that the number of DGUs in which one fires a gun falls somewhere between those numbers.
If one takes the number of individuals who fire given any number of DGUs, the confidence interval would be between 2.6 percent and 51.3 percent (I believe this is what Tim Lambert reports). This is with 7 people reporting a DGU and one person reporting they fired a weapon.
Even if one took the results from his first survey (which he doesn't have anymore), there would be a total of 38 DGUs, with 3 incidents of the guns being fired. His 95 percent confidience interval in that case is 2.7 percent and 20.8 percent.
In his first survey which was eaten by his dog or some other series of explanations one can examine at Tim Lambert's page, he claims there were 25 DGUs and people have assumed there were 2 episodes of weapons being fired. In that case, the confidence interval was 2.2 percent and 25.0 percent.
This is all done without any weightings, Lott weights the responses which makes the confidence intervals even larger.
What is truly fascinating is that he claims this is an improvement on previous studies. But as I explained previously, he still has fewer DGUs even in the one-year period than did Kleck and Gertz (1995). They report 56 respondent DGUs in their one-year time frame, 68 household DGUs. Lott's Survey Methodology is inadequate compared to their survey, Kleck and Gertz have a larger sample size, and more DGUs within the 1 year time frame. Of course, Lott seems unaware that they did a one year sample as well as a five year and he attempted to differentiate between his survey and theirs because they used a five year sample. He is either unaware of their 1 year sample (which would be strange because they report it in their paper) or he hopes others are ignorant of it.
archpundit 3/17/2003 6:13:35 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
ISA Holding up Death Penalty Reform
At the Political State Report
archpundit 3/14/2003 5:21:45 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Velasco Steps Down
It was only a matter of time, but the Department of Corrections nominee, Ernesto Velasco, has stepped down due to the Cook County . Don Snyder is still overseeing the system and may well be kept on given his role in cleaning up the system.
archpundit 3/14/2003 4:55:35 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
John McCarron suggests a higher profile for Daley
As the most powerful and probably popular Democratic Mayor in the country, why doesn't he take that popularity out for a spin and use it to challenge President Bush?
Oh, the linguistic horrors that would be brought about between a debate by those twos--it would be like armageddon for the English language.
archpundit 3/14/2003 4:43:50 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Most Ineffective Lobbying Strategy EVER
Not that the Illinois Rifle Association ever gets that much done, but whipping your people into a frenzy and then they call legislators with threats is a really friggen bad way to oppose a gun control measure. I mean, if you are getting threatened with guns, you are probably sympathetic to control. My take is that most of the proposals are window dressing except for state gun dealer registration which, I'm not sure I understand how it improves on an FFL.
The threats are reported on the Capitol Fax.
archpundit 3/14/2003 3:10:54 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Cover the Uninsured Week
Continues at the Bloviator, click on the map to learn about the uninsured in your state.
archpundit 3/14/2003 2:56:26 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Laughs
John Lott's book has been published with his new and supposedly improved survey. For those not following the John Lott train wreck concerning a survey he claims to have completed in 1998 check out Tim Lambert's page in the hyperlink. Lott said he was replicating the survey and had this to say about it:
"let me note the most important bottom line: the survey that was done last fall produced very similar results. The earlier results were replicated."
Now that Lott's survey has gone to press, Tim Lambert has revealed that the number of DGUs in the new sample is 7. Lott claims that in his previous study, he had 25 DGUs, but cannot provide any documentation for that survey.
Tim Lambert points out the 95% confidence interval is from 3 percent to 50 percent using Wilson's method. This range would include the results from eight surveys done previously, all of which are better surveys.
Tim calculates using the Wilson method which I believe is the most appropriate method to understand these numbers. Tim or I or anyone with a decent statistical background can provide the technical aspects of the calculation. To put it in more familiar terms, the Margin of Error for the 7 cases of DGUs in the most recent survey is +/- 37.8 % with 95% confidence. Given there is one time the weapon is fired out of 7 DGUs, that means the range of possible results within the 95% confidence interval is 0 (You can't have negative numbers here) and 52%. This is assuming that the survey's methodology is adequate, and this is not likely the case.
Even if one were to use the results Lott claims from the first survey (and one shouldn't since there is no data to analyze) the total number of DGUs would be 32 giving a margin of error of +/- 17.7%. With 1 weapon being fired in the 2002 sample and probably 2 being fired in the 1998 lost sample, that is 9.375% rate of firing the gun used in the DGU meaning up to 27% of cases having a weapon fired would be within the MOE. Using the Wilson method on both samples one observes the 95% confidence interval producing results between 3% and 24% of cases producing a weapon being fired. To insist that 98% of the time the weapon doesn't have to be fired doesn't actually fit his own results. Now Lott might try and claim that he uses weighting of the sample that would change this, but if he weights the sample his MOE inflates. All of this assumes unbiased sampling and effective survey methodology which is not likely given Lott's survey techniques. IOW, all of these calculations are generous.
So Lott claims to have replicated the original survey. Tim Lambert disagrees. I agree with Lott on the point that he has replicated the original survey. Lott is correct, he has replicated a worthless survey with another worthless survey. Congratulations, Dr. Lott, you ought to be proud! The question Lott won't answer is why he bothered with either survey. Anyone with a minimal grasp of statistics understands how useless the survey(s) he conducted are to answer the questions he wishes to answer. Others have insisted this survey would be much better, but it is another example of wasted time and effort.
I imagine Lott will release his numbers as well and that should provide for all sorts of fun!
archpundit 3/14/2003 2:46:15 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
But the Strawberries
Captain Queeg: Ahh, but the strawberries that's... that's where I had them. They laughed at me and made jokes but I proved beyond the shadow of a doubt and with... geometric logic... that a duplicate key to the wardroom icebox DID exist, and I'd have produced that key if they hadn't of pulled the Caine out of action. I, I, I know now they were only trying to protect some fellow officers...
Thank you Paul Krugman, the notion of W. as Queeg just made the whole administration funny enough to laugh about again.
archpundit 3/13/2003 11:16:25 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Note To David Talbot
I'm already a subscriber and Joe Conason alone makes that a wonderful investment, however, this kind of navel gazing drivel is only useful as an substitute for watching a car wreck. Boo-hoo, people were wearing flags on the cruise ship I was vacationing on...
archpundit 3/13/2003 10:59:26 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Read Joe Conason about Inhofe
And remember what wackjobs in key environmental positions can justify when they think Jesus is coming back real soon now, ya hear. This is really right out of the James Watt use it or lose it in the rapture school.
archpundit 3/13/2003 10:53:54 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Slash Comes to Da Bears
Oh thanks you Jerry Angelo! This certainly doesn't fix everything wrong with the Bears, but it ensures this season won't be a boring...
archpundit 3/13/2003 10:49:32 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Loonie Moment at the Leader
Joyce Morrison says:
If you have seen the movie "Brave New World" where people live in sustainable communities and are afraid to go out into the "wilderness" because it is too dangerous, you can get the picture.
Well, actually no I haven't seen the movie, but it is considered one hell of a book.
I can't find anything else to excerpt because she is so bonkers one must read the whole thing to grasp the seriousness of her delusions. Just remember, the Nature Conservancy is a dangerous bunch of radicals in cahoots with the UN.
archpundit 3/12/2003 5:06:26 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Perle Blows a Gasket
Perle goes further off the edge with the announcement he is going to sue Sy Hersch for the New Yorker article that questions the appearance of impropriety by Perle in having private business interests and a public job.
Perle is claiming he'll do it in England where such a case would be easier, but given the original article is quite measured and specific in suggesting the appearance of impropriety and remains agnostic as to whether actual impropriety occurs, Perle isn't going to win.
But then again, given I'm not willing to attack the terrorist Hersch, I must be an appeaser.
Is Perle trying to act like Snidely Whiplash, or what?
archpundit 3/12/2003 4:56:58 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
When the Crazy Guy with the Knife is Trying to Get Attention
Just give the attention to him and make sure he doesn't come back with a gun. Turning the issue into some bizarre morality play is of no use. What is of use is defusing a crisis before making it worse.
archpundit 3/12/2003 2:37:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Let's Talk Torture
In a small sign of hope that John Burge will be brought to justice for torture, Gordon B. Nash Jr. served as chief of the special prosecution division in 1977 and 1978 was appointed to the investigation.
Whether the US should torture people is an assanine question. What do you get from torture? Lot's of made up garbage, as has been documented in Illinois.
It isn't a question of using torture, it is a question of getting rid of it here. Torture is inhumane and ineffective. The only reason to push for it is out of a sense of sadism. Armchair Strangeloves who think we should use it fail to grasp what torture actually does which is create every incentive to end torture whether it is by telling the truth or a lie.
Several weeks ago, Steven Chapman identified the particularly problematic slippery slope issues with allowing torture under some circumstances.
Now, if one is trying to stop a nuke in two hours is torture ok? I'm sure we can forgive the individual who makes that choice, but otherwise, torture is off limits.
archpundit 3/12/2003 2:19:43 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Two Posts Up at Political State Report
The Cubs Historic Landmark Saga
Dan Hynes Profile
archpundit 3/12/2003 1:55:28 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Strangelove Moments
Kevin Drum points us to two today:
First, Michael Ledeen suggests 'fancifully' that Germany and France are providing cover for radical Islamists and Arabs. (via Digby who states:
Somebody had a little Ecstasy with his Freedom Toast this morning.
In the immortal words of that guy, that's about right. Indeed.
Kevin's second case is the Bible Code loon who was actually invited to the Pentagon.
Strangelove was a parody, these fruitcakes aren't.
archpundit 3/12/2003 11:49:55 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Bob Jones on Larry King
Jeanne D'Arc states what my wife had to listen to me rant on about for 10 minutes last night....
So you want to do a show about the Christian response to war. What eminent theologian comes to mind as the ideal person to discuss the complexities of the topic, to analyze and explain the rich Christian tradition in thinking about war and peace. If you said Bob Jones, you apparently think just like Larry King (and you should be ashamed of yourself.)
There is a bit more diversity in Christian thinking than these two represent--far right and friggen right of Randall Terry. But I'm sure Larry worked 'em over hard like usual...
While you are at it check out the Twilight Zone.
archpundit 3/12/2003 11:38:55 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
And don't Forget
It is Cover the Uninsured Weeka nd Ross at the Bloviator is going to town.
Just remember, you pay for the uninsured either upfront through taxes or you pay for it in your hospital bills.
archpundit 3/12/2003 11:29:09 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
State of the State
Today at Noon--KWMU will carry it and is available via streaming audio.
archpundit 3/12/2003 11:20:23 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Where Is Sellers When We Need Him:New Feature-Stranglove Moments
Blogging at USS Clueless pretending to be Strangelove himself. Apparently the French are stealing our precious bodily fluids and they might just nuke us. As usual one is not enough, and Sellers makes an appearance as James Taranto here. A third Sellers appearance occurs in the comments over at Kieran Healy's with were he plays two roles at once. In one case he is Strangelove saying:
I'm not quite sure why you think that's so far fetched. You don't think that the French would try to provide some help to their ally, Saddam Hussein?
France is Iraq's ally.
France is not the USA's ally.
That is under the name Narniaman. The other appearance is as highly rational and terrified Group Captain Lionel Mandrake AKA Kieran Healy (who is probably going to be pissed to be compared to an Englishman) who states:
Stranger things have happened than France nuking the United States? Want to give any examples? The famous rain of frogs in Posset-on-the-Wye in 1537, maybe?
So new feature---send me the best Strangelove moments on the blogs and I post 'em here. Strangelove was a parody, these fruitcakes aren't.
archpundit 3/12/2003 11:09:54 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Michael Savage Meet Ann Coulter
Savage is threatening boycott organizers with a restraint of trade lawsuit. Unfortunately for him, we stopped enforcing those silly claims when the Civil Rights Movement won--perhaps Jonah Goldberg could explain the difference between the right to pursue a career and the right to be paid for it as he did to Ann Coulter.
archpundit 3/12/2003 9:24:10 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
James Moran meet Pat Buchanan
Groan, when is Pat going back into his hole?
archpundit 3/12/2003 9:20:36 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hey, I know, let's piss off our best ally
For some reason I don't think Rumsfeld had in mind Washington's concern over foreign entanglements when he brain farted out his sense that Britain may not be fully supportive of the US in Iraq. It is equally sure that he wasn't thinking at all. When a staunch ally like Tony Blair is putting himself on the line for us, pulling a Tonya Harding is pretty stupid.
I always assumed this administration would do a bunch of dumb things leading up to a war, but they are truly reaching new levels of incompetence now.
archpundit 3/12/2003 9:17:31 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Philip Family is having a bad month
Pate gets grilled in the Fawell trial and threatened with perjury, now Art gets nabbed for a DUI in Florida. But not just a DUI, he blew .201, well over twice the limit and damn drunk. Not only that, but he left his wife and passenger hospitalized. Given the seriousness of this charge, it is unlikely he'll be able to finish out his term on the Illinois Tollway Authority.
archpundit 3/11/2003 11:13:42 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Way to Abolish the Death Penalty
Is through a clear case of executing the innocent, and Texas may be on the way to helping the cause in the worst way possible. Talk Left has the details for an execution about to take place in, you guessed it, Texas.
archpundit 3/10/2003 11:14:53 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Most Important Blog This Week
The Bloviator who is doing Cover the Uninsured Week. Go, go quickly...
archpundit 3/10/2003 11:12:40 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Richard Perle's Mind is a Terrible Thing To Lose
Via Thinking it Through, Buzz Flash gives us the transcript of Richard Perle on Late Edition on Sunday where accuses Sy Hersch of being a terrorist.
PERLE: Because he's widely irresponsible. If you read the article, it's first of all, impossible to find any consistent theme in it.
So unfocused writing makes one a terrorist now?
But the suggestion that my views are somehow related for the potential for investments in homeland defense is complete nonsense.
And actually Perle is correct here. Perle is a loon of the first variety and it isn't his investments driving his maniacal desire for an American Empire, it is his looniness. I don't harp on the charge of empire building much, but in Perle's case it is entirely appropriate. He is one of the loons who thinks the US ought to reinvent the Middle East.
BLITZER: But I don't understand. Why do you accuse him of being a terrorist?
PERLE: Because he sets out to do damage and he will do it by whatever innuendo, whatever distortion he can -- look, he hasn't written a serious piece since My Lai.
Pot-Kettle Issues here.
archpundit 3/10/2003 11:52:22 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Going to the Well III: It is a shame to lose Dreher's mind
Sorry Kevin, but the Poorman beat you to the punch and instead discusses how it is a shame to lose Stanley Kurtz's mind.
Dr. Strangelove was a fucking parody people--not a how-to manual--GOT IT!
archpundit 3/07/2003 6:02:42 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Going to the Well II: Left Behind Theology
My problem with the Left Behind series that Kevin defends in relation to snotty liberal secular attacks is that it is bad theology. Many evangelicals reject the end of the world is on us crap and indeed, it is the subject of many o'debate on fundamentalist radio. Dispensationalism is sort of the fundamentalist wedge issue...
As far as policy connections to fundamentalist thought on the end-times...from Time's July 1st issue:
The election of Ronald Reagan brought "Christian Zionism" deeper into the White House: Lindsey served as a consultant on Middle East affairs to the Pentagon and the Israeli government. Interior Secretary James Watt, a Pentecostalist, in discussing environmental concerns, observed, "I don't know how many future generations we can count on until the Lord returns." Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger affirmed, "I have read the Book of Revelation, and, yes, I believe the world is going to end--by an act of God, I hope--but every day I think time is running out." It was no accident that Reagan made his "evil empire" speech at a meeting of the National Association of Evangelicals.
While Kevin might be right to be leery of Bush himself believing this stuff (Methodists aren't big on dispensationalism), the influence on many conservative politicians is quite clear (Salon Premium). John Ashcroft, James Inhofe, Tom DeLay, and Dick Armey are just a few who use Revelations to argue for specific policies towards Israel and the world as a whole.
Kevin is also correct that all evangelicals shouldn't be treated as the lunatic fringe. A part of the problem that secular individuals have with understanding these distinctions is they don't have enough of a religous background. Even many liberal Christians are very underexposed to fundamentalists and Dispensationalists. Evangelicals come in many shapes and certainly all evangelicals aren't fundamentalists. Some evangelicals are liberal--evangelical only signifies those who try and evangelize Christianity. However, Dispensationalists do have dangerous ideas and they should be fought when they try and have those ideas put into public policy. Having read the book review, I took the dark overtones to only apply to dispensationalists and not evangelicals as a whole. And as a somewhat liberal Christian---yeah I'm worried about them. Very worried.
Now, if they were to undergo a second great withdrawal from politics as they did early in the 20th Century, that is fine. Their beliefs would be no more dangerous than the Heaven's Gate Cult.
Tolerance of all sorts of religious beliefs is a good thing. However, I do not think that making fun of silly beliefs is the worst thing in the world. I make fun of Scientologists, Heaven's Gates types and Dispensationalists as well as an assortment of other strange groups. I only get concerned when any of these type of groups gain political power, and Dispensationalists are the only ones who really fit that category.
archpundit 3/07/2003 5:53:18 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Going to the Calpundit Well I
Kevin addresses a post by Eugene Volokh concerning college athletics. It seems that Kevin and Eugene identify the problems pretty well, but fail to grasp the most obvious solution---have colleges actually treat sports as an extracurricular and stop offering any sort of inducement to play (slightly simplistic--some other extracurriculars offer scholarships).
But really, what is the purpose of an athletic scholarship? I understand the purpose of athletics, but I have no idea how athletic scholarships promote the missions of universities. When someone can answer that question, I'll support the existence of athletic scholarships.
Universities have no responsibility to take care of young athletes as Eugene suggests. If someone wants to be an athlete--join an athletic organization, not a university. There is no reason for a university to be involved in the education of a student at another institution simply to provide an athletic opportunity.
Athletics are important to building character, teamwork skills and a variety of important skills, but they aren't part of the mission of the university, the are a feature to help achieve the universities' missions. As such, there is no point to athletic scholarships.
archpundit 3/07/2003 4:51:46 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Kordell may come to town
Thank goodness, of course I'll be stuck watching the Rams.
archpundit 3/07/2003 4:22:46 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Medicaid Reform
Illinois is looking at adopting an HMO Model for its Medicaid program.
The state tried it before, but the federal government rejected the plan as did HMOs. It is too early to comment much since the details aren't available.
archpundit 3/07/2003 4:06:08 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
NICOR Fined $27 Million for lying
In the category of the lie was as bad as the action, NICOR is about to be hit hard by the Illinois Commerce Commission for lying about the motive behind using alternative natural gas supplies. The fine is equal to the profits received in this case, but even worse, the investigation is continuing.
archpundit 3/07/2003 4:02:46 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Fawell Trial Follies
Up at the Political State Report, with Pate Philip at risk for a perjury charge.
archpundit 3/07/2003 3:46:26 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Death Penalty Update
Is up over at the Political State Report
archpundit 3/07/2003 3:03:30 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Perhaps the dumbest article of the week
Looks at the school finance crisis in Illinois and focuses on New Trier. New Trier, for those not familiar with it, is probably one of the best funded districts in the nation, and performs at a level with the best private prep schools in the country.
The fact that New Trier is facing a shortfall doesn't mean it is in crisis, it means New Trier needs to being economical for once. I do not begrudge New Trier anything, however, it is assanine to cite them as an example of a school budget crisis when they are not in an actual crisis. Of all of the working class suburban and rural schools in deep crisis, the Trib chose one district that might have to cut a few extras. Nice.
archpundit 3/07/2003 2:23:10 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Best Fred Rogers Obit
is pointed out by Steve Rhodes:
?It?s a mournful day in the neighborhood.?
? The opening line to Steve Johnson?s front page Fred Rogers obituary in the Tribune last week
Rhodes also mentions Nathan Bierma's move to Christianity Today's Contents and Culture on-line. We've mentioned it before, but I like to promote it because:
A) Nathan posts about Chicago
B) He is a observant Christian who fits the Fred Rogers model and voices his views as Christians should-out of love, not out of exclusion
archpundit 3/07/2003 2:17:22 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
WTF? More Conservative Than Crane?
Party Lines from Lakeland Newspapers is reporting that Phil Crane will face a challenge from the, errr, right?!
Crane's opponent 'more' conservative
Atty. David Phelps in announcing his candidacy for the 2004 Republican nomination for the 8th Congressional District is setting a course to be more conservative than incumbent conservative Congressman Phil Crane.
The Crystal Lake resident with a background in law enforcement is talking about reducing frivolous spending, a Crane byword for three decades, and opposing federal tax increases short of a national emergency.
Phelps, 40, said he will spend conservatively in the campaign and support campaign reform laws because of the "outrageous" cost of running for office. An Air Force veteran, Phelps serves as a trustee of the Crystal Lake Park District.
Ummmm...The American Conservative Union has given Crane 100s in both 2001 and 2002 and a 99 score over his 32 years in Congress. What the hell is to the right of Phil Crane? Tom Delay on acid?
archpundit 3/07/2003 2:09:15 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Trib Anti-union?
Hardly a News at 11 headline, but Reader does a good article on the Trib's Labor beat writer.
As the article points out, Stephen Franklin is somewhat of a rarity at major dailies--most have phased out full-time labor coverage. Franklin points out two events that, to me, have defined a fair reporting coverage of labor issues in the Trib. The first was a series of union democratization. For anyone who follows the challenges of unions in ridding themselves of corruption, the series was fantastic. Too often, unions have become bastions of corruption that work against the interest of workers. Second, the Trib did a series of articles on the Cat Strike in 92 that was excellent. Catepillar had tried to run over its workers in Peoria and Decatur during that period and it created a divide in those communities that had never been there through other strikes, even the long '82 strike. The reports were excellent and fairly balanced.
And from the article, let me also suggest:
Two years ago Franklin published the book Three Strikes, a study of the labor turmoil in the 90s at the Caterpillar, A.E. Staley, and Bridgestone/Firestone plants in Decatur. "I offer it," he says angrily, "as a witness's account of what happens when workplace rules are broken, when unions no longer make workers strong, and when the fruits of progress are no longer meant to be shared, but rather worshiped by most of us from afar." Studs Terkel's quoted on the jacket calling the book "labor reportage at its best."
I haven't read this book, but I plan on reading it soon. I lived and worked in Central Illinois during this time and the Staley lock-out should be considered a truly ugly period in American capitalism. I saw more men broken during that period who wanted nothing, but to return to work at whatever conditions Staley offered. But Staley wasn't interested in getting just favorable work rules, they were interested in crushing the union. Along the way they crushed a whole lot of lives.
archpundit 3/07/2003 2:04:53 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Pat Quinn Shuts Up!
I've always wondered what it would take to get Pat Quinn to shut the hell up. Few politicians pander to public sentiment more and few are more worthless. His lead in the reform of the Illinois Legislature significantly weakened independent voices in the Legislature and strengthened the Illinois Combine.
So finally, Rich Miller points out that he has shut up---exactly when he should not have. SBC is looking for protection against real competition in phone service and all of a sudden, Pat Quinn becomes a team player. The one thing he was useful for was fighting corporate welfare and not he isn't even doing that.
When I said the other day that I would offer up more criticism of Daley, let's remember this crap has his family written all over it with Bill Daley now the head of SBC.
Fight the Power Pat!
archpundit 3/07/2003 1:46:23 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Tuition Tax Credit Repeal Attempt
In 1999 Cardinal George met with George Ryan and told him the Chicago Archdiocese Schools were facing a financial crisis. While ensuring the viability of private schools is not generally the job of the state, Ryan felt he had little choice. The Archdiocese educates nearly 123,000 children in Cook County and a significant change would have flooded many public schools as well as created a challenge for Chicago in retaining many of its public safety force.
Cardinal George didn't go asking for full blown vouchers, but instead for a tax credit to help families on the edge. Ryan pushed through a $500 tax credit for educational expenses of $2,250 that is available to all parents.
Phil Kadner reports the lege is looking at repealing the tuition tax credit. Kadner argues that is a reasonable given the state's inability to help public schools out.
Normally I would agree with this, but even a $500 tax credit has significant effects on the ability of marginal incomed parents to send kids to private schools and that marginal help, is the shot in the arm the Archdiocese probably needs to keep the number of schools at a reasonable level. If the Archdiocese has to significantly decrease the number of spots, the public schools will be hit hard by the increase in the number of students. That $500 credit is money well spent.
archpundit 3/07/2003 1:38:47 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Well, that was a break
that I didn't really expect. Hmmmm...not sure what happened other than an avalanche of junk. Anyway, back and plenty of stuff to catch up on..
archpundit 3/07/2003 12:41:04 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Tom Sell Really is a Nut Job
His case went before the Supreme Court today and the Justices will determine whether or not the government can force him to take anti-psychotic drugs, thus ensuring he is fit to stand trial.
Previously, his ties to the Council of Conservative Citizens have been discussed here as well as Tom Bugel's efforts to get Ashcroft to intervene...he must be too busy worrying about getting bongs off the street right now.
The legal issue raises important questions. While mentally incapacitated individuals need appropriate representation, it is unclear to me that such a determination should be made by the government.
archpundit 3/04/2003 12:28:47 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Chick's Up
No,no chicks, Chick,as in the wacky loon who writes the Chick Tracks. This month he fearlessly attacks the Masons...
Beating Scoobie to the punch before he resumes blogging.
archpundit 3/03/2003 11:41:20 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Who Knew III?
"> Thanks to Ross at the Bloviator for this one
archpundit 3/03/2003 12:25:57 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Who Knew II
archpundit 3/03/2003 10:22:38 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Who Knew?
archpundit 3/03/2003 10:18:09 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Bad Poll for Fitzgerald
and Comments are at the Political State Report.
archpundit 3/02/2003 9:56:57 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The 2007 Daley Smackdown
From the comments section:
Considering the general trend in Daley's opponents, from Harold Washington through Danny Davis through Bobby Rush to Paul Jakes, I predict that in 2007 Mayor Daley will run against the "nine pairs of socks for five dollars" guy from the El.
So what about the rest of you? Who should take on Daley in 2007? Both serious and sarcastic (especially sarcastic suggestions welcomed).
archpundit 3/02/2003 9:09:20 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Who Will Daley Hold Accountable?
Sanchez, the streets and sanitation chief or the cop doing his job by giving Sanchez's driver a ticket?
archpundit 3/02/2003 8:32:07 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Pate Philip is really gone
And we know this because a gay rights bill made it out of committee. Philip had blocked any vote on this for years. The bill is not sure to pass as some Democrats moved it to the floor who are against it in general.
archpundit 3/02/2003 8:23:38 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
A Deserved Critique
From a reliable reader (and one whose opinion I respect):
I have read a number of times your obvious admiration for Mayor Daley; indeed, in a recent post you said that your appreciation for him has grown since being exiled to a city that doesn't work, and that he has molded Chicago into a remarkable metropolis. Although you note occasionaly that he shouldn't be left unchecked, your and most other people's admiration of him leaves him just that -- unchecked. And there in lies the rub: Mayor Daley has what he has and does what he does because there is no politics in Chicago, which, in effect, means that there is no democracy in Chicago. To be sure, we have elections, but Daley has so effectively neutered his opposition that elections are a sham, a foregone conclusion. Public policy is not debated, the future of the City is not open for discussion, and the Mayor's agenda cannot be questioned. He is beyond being unchecked -- he is a dictator, a benign one for most, perhaps, but a dictator nonetheless.
Democracy is messy; but Daley hates mess. Democracy means you don't always get what you want; but what Ritchie wants, Ritchie gets. Although many of us -- the prosperous ones, the ones who feed at the public trough, the courtiers -- benefit form his largesse, his love of the City, many don't. Those who can't use the pretty parks because of violence in the streets don't. Those who need affordable housing don't. Those who need good schools don't. Those who need adequate public transportation to get to and from jobs and school don't.
Visit the Englewood neighborhood, or Robeson High School, or ride the Brown Line.
When democracy fails, inconvenient questions can't be asked. Like how is it that we can't find enough money to rebuild schools, or public transportation, yet we can find the money instantly to rebuild Soldier Field, or build the massive boondoggle, Millenium Park. No one can ask about how in the world trees, and flowers, and medians, and wrought iron will be paid for. No one can ask about the Duffs, or Jeremiah Joyce and his clan, or Grace Barry.
Chicago has improved. So have other great cities -- but not without having to sacrifice that difficult, messy American institution that, in the end, holds public officials accountable: democracy.
End
Fair enough, and true. I do need to call Daley out more often and I will when it comes up. I hope my bobblehead post on Political State Report makes clear that I do want to see independent voices in Chicago. All of the points above are true.
Part of the reason I think I give Daley so much credit is that I see St. Louis and other midwestern cities struggling with the same problems cited, and yet doing even less than Daley accomplishes. To a point, Daley does more with what he has. That being said, Chicago would be a far healthier place if it had open debates and opposition. Later in the week, I'll do some flashback posts about Harold Washington and the 1983 race.
What is absolutely unacceptable are his refusal to take questioning seriously ("What do you want me to do, take down my pants?") and his acceptance of shady characters like the Duffs. They are outfit clowns who have no business in the public trough--not only do they cheat taxpayers, but they cheat the workers underneath them.
archpundit 3/02/2003 8:18:00 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Denny Gets Mad!
Going to the Calpundit well again...
Denny Hastert is reported to have said:
"What do you want me to do, call the President a liar? George Bush may screw his party. I don't!" Hastert is reported to have said.
Mr. Fitzgerald is squirming because that means Hastert just might be pissed enough to back Andrew McKenna in the Illinois Republican primary. If Hastert and the President weren't having problems, I think Rove could clear the field with a strong move--if he has alienated Hastert, he has no leverage.
archpundit 3/02/2003 7:37:18 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
One Liberal Hawk Sill on Board
But it looks like others are ready to jump ship. I'm the one not looking to jump ship.
Look, I don't know what the hell the administration thinks it is doing pissing on many of our allies' legs, but that doesn't go to what I think the justification for taking out Saddam is. I believe that we will deal with him now or deal with him later. For a whole host of reasons I don't believe deterrence will work. While Saddam may not be crazy, he isn't very smart and deterrence requires full rationality on the part of an opponent and from his past actions it is clear that Saddam is not capable of processing information well.
Once I concluded deterrence is highly unlikely to work the question then becomes is there reason to wait? Well, usually there would be, but he is pursing weapons that would make any future conflict harder to fight.
I never had any illusions about Bush giving a damn about democracy (nor about Clinton's fumbling in Europe as Daniel Drezner points out). Cleaning up Bush's mess in Iraq, Turkey, Kurdistan (just wait) and several other Arab countries will fall to his successor. However, I'd rather have him get Saddam out of the way to make that fight less bloody and less calamitous.
By far, I'd like Dick Lugar, Bob Dole or John McCain executing this war and cleaning up after. Clearly, in any of those three cases we wouldn't have alienated our allies and screwed up bribing Mexico and Turkey. And I'd have more trust in the post war Iraqi order. But I'm stuck with Bush.
archpundit 3/02/2003 7:32:45 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Brazen George & the Combine
Kevin assumes that Republicans actually liked George Ryan and he is half-right. George Ryan ran as the most conservative Republican Gubernatorial candidate since at least 1972 (and I don't even remember the '72 candidate so don't ask). He picked up some support from the wingnut faction of the party because of his role in killing the ERA years ago as Speaker of the House. He was also the first pro-life Republican Gubernatorial candidate who was pro-life since at least 1972 as well. On the other hand, his openness and overtures to gays and lesbians put the right wing on guard.
By the end of his administration the only people who liked him were death penalty opponents and those who directly owed him favors. Everyone running for office statewide except Judy Baar Topinka distanced themselves from him (oddly, she was the only winner). The beneficiaries of his patronage presumably still like them, but their lawyers have told them to shut up.
By the end of his term, conservatives in the Republican Party viewed him as a profligate spender (and he was), a Communie sympathizer for going to Cuba (actually he just understood what was good for agribidness), a soft on crime pinko of for the death penalty moratorium, a fricken' evil bastard for the commutations, and a crook (and they are correct).
No Republican office holder is supporting any of this with the possible exception of Pate Philip, who to be pedantic, is no longer an office holder. Philip is implicated in the Fawell trial.
To a degree, these sort of shenanigans aren't atypical in Illinois. Even between Republicans there have been disputes over last moment appointments by the outgoing Governor. Jim Edgar was criticized for a few in 1998. The person criticizing him?
George Ryan.
Ryan insisted it was his right.
Whether this is a continuing cycle is actually hard to tell. My sense is that Blagojevich won't have the same leeway. Ryan was so brazen that many people just turned off the whole mess and stopped paying attention. Certainly some of it was that Republicans were losing almost all of their patronage positions, but the Party separated themselves from George so these were largely loyalty paybacks for him personally. In another group of appointees, some Democrats allied with Ryan were given positions as well.
It is always important to remember while there are two parties in Illinois, there is a large overlap of the two parties in the Combine--dealmakers in both parties who are happy to share the pork and patronage with members of the other party, as long as they get theirs. The come from all over the ideological spectrum and they have run the state largely since 1976 when Jim Thompson became governor. Many good things have happened during that time, but a great deal of scams have as well.
I would argue that often times elections in Illinois are the Combine versus reformers. Other times they are different flavors of the Combine. The Blagojevich-Jim Ryan election was probably an election between different flavors of the Combine. Blagojevich is showing some good signs of independence, but frankly, I don't buy it.
archpundit 3/02/2003 7:21:17 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
That's Right
Another Political State Report posting on the Corrections nomination being put on hold.
Slow blogging until Monday probably. But check in...
archpundit 2/27/2003 11:47:58 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Accessible Blogging
Paul from CenterPoint points out a problem with blogger templates--quite often it overrides the ability of those with poor site to change text size when viewing a page.
This is an excellent point and I will make the changes the next time I work on my template as well as work on the darkness of my type. Thanks to Paul for pointing out this small issue that is easy to fix. Perhaps we all should take it into account.
archpundit 2/26/2003 7:11:29 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Everytime You Think George Ryan Couldn't Be Any Worse
he outdoes himself. He appointed 40 top administrators to four year terms right before Blagojevich took over. These position are termed positions that usually end right after a new administration takes over. However, if a vacancy occurs, a new appointment gets the full four year terms. In these cases, the individuals resigned, a vacancy was declared, and given a new four year appointment for essentially the same positions. They are now assured of jobs up until 2006.
archpundit 2/26/2003 6:21:04 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
I hate it when someone beats me to the punch
After hearing that Delay had called Democrats the Party of Appeasement I was about to do a web search of DeLay's comments concerning Yugoslavia. William Saletan beat me to it.
I was for intervention in the Balkans and I'm for intervention in Iraq. However, I don't think every person opposed is for appeasement of our enemies. I think they are incorrect, but the vast majority simply have come to different conclusions about how to deal with each threat in the most effective manner possible.
Except for twits like DeLay. They are just opportunist hacks.
archpundit 2/26/2003 6:00:21 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Spinning a Buck to Save Some money
Blagojevich is seeking to sell bonds at historically low interest rates to free up funds to close the budget shortfall. All sorts of states and localities are playing with these sort of mechanisms and I'm leery of some of them. However, in this case, it shouldn't hurt the state anymore than refinancing a house does and the state should pursue the plan.
Steve Brown is the policy guy for the Speaker and takes care of most of these decisions. He is very good at keeping his guy out of trouble, so my reading is that if he ultimately signs off, it will have to be a sound plan.
archpundit 2/26/2003 5:45:16 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Doc Strike
I'm going to remain silent on the Doctor's Strike and leave it to the Bloviator who knows a hell of a lot more than me. And he has some choice words on their proposals.
archpundit 2/26/2003 5:35:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
3 Posts up at Political State Report
Political State Report has three posts from today:
1) A few Less Bobbleheads on the Chicago City Council
2) A Challenge to the Outfit In Cicero
3) Roll 'em up in East St. Louis
Link goes to the general site because you should be reading it anyway...
archpundit 2/26/2003 5:28:14 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Only 79%
There is nothing Daley could do to stop his three opponents from getting 21% of the vote.
Apparently there were some advances by independent alderman, I'll post on it when the situation becomes clear tomorrow.
archpundit 2/25/2003 11:35:21 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Other Shoe Drops...
Actually it crashes through the Illinois Political system as a witness testified he wore a wire to a meeting with Pate Philip.
I mentioned that the investigation was clearly broader than we originally thought this is a bit of a blockbuster development.
archpundit 2/25/2003 4:46:09 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
So Private Property Rights Solutions are Bad Now
In typical incoherent fashion my favorite loon takes on the The Nature Conservancy as a dark conspiracy. Yeah.
archpundit 2/25/2003 3:12:06 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
So if Steve Neal is a drunk
And the twit Kevin McCollough can make fun of him for it, why isn't Tim Johnson IL 15 R given the same treatment at the Leader?
archpundit 2/25/2003 3:02:33 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Schlafly Returns
And discusses the ERA on the Illinois Leader
Here is a choice comment:
Section 2 of ERA would take enormous areas of law out of the hands of state legislatures and transfer them to the Federal Government: to the Congress, to the federal courts to interpret what Congress does, and to the federal bureaucracy to write regulations that have the force of law.
These areas of law would include marriage, divorce, family property law, child custody, adoptions, abortions, alimony, some criminal laws, age limits for marriage and the age of consent, public and private schools, prison regulations, and insurance rates.
Errrrrr..thanks for playing, but no. What the ERA would do is require states demonstrate a compelling state interest for differentiating based on gender in any of these policy areas just as it must for race, national origin and religion.
Let the lies continue...
archpundit 2/25/2003 2:58:01 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Poshard's Not Running
According to the Capitol Fax. Thus later in the week we'll have a clear return to the Weekly (sort of) Cattle Call for the 2004 Illinois Senate Race.
archpundit 2/25/2003 2:51:02 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Doesn't Being a Good Ally Swing Both Ways?
Why aren't we getting Blair's back on Greenhouse Gas Emissions?
archpundit 2/25/2003 2:34:15 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Krugman Refutation
Of my post concerning credibility is available.
Actually I agree pretty much. It isn't that we are disagreeing with our allies, it is that we continue to push their faces in the mud over those disagreements. I'm in favor of war in Iraq despite the President.
And no I don't think he is talking to me before anyone comments...
archpundit 2/25/2003 2:31:35 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Political State Report
Post up--check it out.
archpundit 2/25/2003 1:40:20 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Comments on Intelligence
Kevin Drum stepped into a firestorm the other day by suggesting that intelligence is a meaningful trait. He suggested two other issues related, but I'm going to primarily focus on that claim because it is at the core of the issue. One can't continue to argue past that until one understand whether one disagrees that intelligence is meaningful or not.
Apparently Kevin and I missed indoctrination day for liberals on this one. I would say that measuring intelligence is more difficult than I think Kevin allows for, but that isn't the core of the argument to me.
The ability to process information has its limits. Humans have a vast range of abilities, but we are limited in what we can accomplish intellectually. Within humans, that range varies by person. A significant portion of that range is usually determined by environment. What kind of environment was one brought up in, was there lots of stimulation, did the parents understand how to encourage learning and were they capable of teaching. But also, part of that is heritable. While parents with limited intelligence may have children with low intelligence because of the environment created, it is also true that by heredity the individuals will be lower intelligence on average.
Given inherit ability is a range, to some degree the individual has a range of intelligence they may fall within. Environment then decides within that range how well potential intelligence is actualized. However, there are intelligence speed limits for those born with bad genetics. Some mentally disabled individuals could not be Einstein regardless of the environment around them. And some incredibly bright children will never have high intelligence because they suffer from lead poisoning. We do not question whether these situations are real differences in underlying intelligence.
The problem seems to be that this discussion gets caught up in race because of twits like Murray. What no one seems to be pointing out is that race is essentially a social construct. Race is little more than how much melanin one has. Melanin does not affect intelligence. Duh.
Race in America is seen as some unchangeable thing, but we know this to be not the case. Race depends on socialization. How many stories do we know of where individuals passed as white before the Civil Rights Movement? So categorization of race is not even scientific. Beyond that races have long interbred in America so that while many darker skinned indviduals may be African-American in context of the social setting they live, they are not objectively any single race. Murray and Herrnstein seem to assume this unpleasant complication away when there is no justification to do so. Worse, they like many of their predecessors, want to take their work to inform public discourse despite its failings.
Individuals have different inate abilities. Intelligence, athleticism and other characteristics exist within a range for an individual. The problem comes when those like Murray try and sell the observed differences of complicated process as being caused by simplistic factors. Intelligence is the result of a series of factors including heredity. However, simplifying heredity as race is stupid theoretically and empirically.
Stephen Gould was right to be critical of many of the policy uses of intelligence in the past. Those initiatives assumed we understood intelligence much better than we do and resulted in horrific results often.
The mistake by others is to automatically throw intelligence out as a useful concept. We don't question it as a useful concept when describing the damage done to children who have lead poisoning because we understand that environmental factor has significant impacts on the child's intelligence. If anything, our understanding of the importance of environment in shaping even the most genetically capable children should motivate us to fight for opportunity in every child's environment.
And $15 million for lead abatement, ain't gonna do it.
archpundit 2/25/2003 1:05:17 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Texas Death Penalty: Can't keep up
Via Talk Left the Trib reports that Texas is killing people as fast as it can despite numerous examples of problems with Texas's system.
Jeralynn argues that there will be a movement towards a moratorium. I wish I had her optimism.
archpundit 2/25/2003 11:52:49 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Is Ashcroft on crack?
I think we have enough evidence for some reasonable suspicions as Talk Left points out the crackdown on people selling bongs.
Bongs are a big concern? Bongs? Are you kidding me? Next he'll go after sellers of Cheetos.
archpundit 2/25/2003 11:47:30 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Motion to Disqualify Cook County Judges from Burge cases
In a stunning motion, a coalition of lawyers involved in cases where John Burge is accused of torture are asking all Cook County judges to be disqualified (via TalkLeft.
The argument is that too many of the judges have been involved as prosecutors in too many of these cases and an unavoidable conflict of interest exists.
While I expect this motion to be quashed, the questions raised are extremely important. The problem is I'm not sure if bringing in judges from outstate or the suburbs will necessarily be better. Chicago judges are probably more likely to accept the notion that police behave badly than outstate judges in Illinois.
archpundit 2/25/2003 11:41:03 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
But maybe if he didn't say that anywhere else, I shouldn't have
Congratulations Peter, you just made the President uneasy when he least needs it. Fitzgerald reported to the Daily Herald that the President said to him that he would order the assassination of Saddam Hussein if it were possible.
This is, ahem, a bush league mistake. Let the President make foreign policy pronouncements, not the junior Senator from Illinois.
archpundit 2/25/2003 11:27:37 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Gary, Indiana, Not Louisiana, Paris, France, New York or Peotone
Crain's picks up the big question that Jesse Jackson Jr. and other supporters of Peotone refuse to answer, why not improve the third regional airport already in operation, that is a closer commute to downtown, covers the southern Chicago region well, and fits the size of the facility needed.
Chicago doesn't need another world class airport, it needs an commuter airport to supplement Midway and make the city more competitive by allowing in more discount carriers. Peotone is a boondoggle of a project designed to compete with O'Hare, but it doesn't have any major airlines supporting it--or even Southwest.
Then again, none of the major carriers may be around in 10 years.
And of course, if you don't get the reference below, don't make me feel old by pointing out what it is.
archpundit 2/25/2003 10:06:17 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
What Would Harold Think?
He'd think he'd want a good street brawl followed by a good drink is my guess. Kass laments the lack of opposition in Chicago Politics.
I'm not so sure. Certainly Harold would have wanted to see the corruption spotlighted--well as long as they weren't his pals, but he started the path Chicago is on now and I think he'd love to see a city that might be imperfect, but is certainly maintaining itself as world class even in tough times. Does anyone miss Vrdolyak (well besides the Outfit)? Does anyone miss the overtly racist campaigns? Did anyone like the Chicago Public Schools having the worst in the nation as a modifier?
Kass is right in saying that the city needs a loyal opposition, but the city has come a long, long way since 1983 and Daley deserves some credit for that. So does Washington because he started a lot of the improvements. I think Harold is up in heaving smiling down at a beautiful city and watching Barak Obama and some other young turks who don't have to associate with the thugs that used to run the South and West sides and thinking things will work out just fine....
archpundit 2/24/2003 11:40:27 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
And another thing...
And I'm pretty damn sure one can go to Instapundit, USS Clueless and any other host of right wing sites and find really much worse arguments for war than Kevin's....
archpundit 2/24/2003 11:31:26 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Back off Kevin
It appears the left of the blogosphere is piling up on center-left Kevin Drum at CalPundit for his comments about the war. Essentially Kevin argues that pulling out now would be disastrous sending a signal to the region and specifically Saddam that he can get away with flouting the inspection regime. And Kevin is right. Pulling out now will signal to Saddam that the US doesn't have the backbone to fight. Like it or not, the reason inspections have gone as far as they have is because of the credible threat of US force. Backing down from that makes our threat to use force incredible and the credibility of our using force is keeping the Middle East and Korea from blowing up currently.
I would have like to have seen more deft coalition building process take place without as short of a timeline as we now see. I think getting Saddam to jerk around the inspectors would have eventually brought along more allies. That being said, I'm stuck with Bush and I don't want to see a repeat of Somalia where the message was sent the US would back down from the good fight. And fighting a warlord happy to starve his own people was the good fight.
Of course, the war must first be moral for this argument to make any sense, and I argue it is. Saddam is a threat to international peace and security and continues to attempt to build weapons. Containment is unlikely to work against a man who has an uncanny ability to make bad decisions repeatedly. And he is a savage dictator to boot. Whether we need to go to war is a debatable point, but arguing that once you have made the conclusion the war would be moral, arguing that credibility requires it is a reasonable view. Most of the criticisms of Kevin fail to see the two step logic--Kevin already concluded such a war would be moral and then moves on to the issue of what we should do now.
He's less right about the intelligence matter, but I think people are being unfair in their criticisms. I guess the first question there is does one accept that intelligence as a meaningful trait. All, but the Sowell article seem to dance around that question. I accept it as a meaningful trait. We can measure the difference in intelligence between different human beings. Sometimes our measures are quite crude, but that is a measurement issue. I guess if people are going to dispute his point, everyone should begin with this basic point. So let's hear the comments. This point is completely separate from the hack work in the Bell Curve.
archpundit 2/24/2003 11:27:02 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Does it Sting when Dan Hynes hits you over the head like that?
Blagojevich all of a sudden seems to have been smacked over the head by someone and given the Senate Republicans haven't been able to see him, it must have been Dan Hynes pointing out how close to not being able to pay some bills the state is. Today, Blago ordered a 10% across the board cut in spending for this fiscal year. This is a good sign, though it would have made more sense the day he was inagurated. Better late than never, but every day he puts off making tough choices, the tougher the choices he will ultimately have to make.
archpundit 2/24/2003 11:02:10 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Gay Rights Bill to go through the Senate
Apparently the House is tired of taking the flak for it and are insisting it get out of the Senate before they bother. Profiles in courage!
archpundit 2/21/2003 6:19:24 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
For once it isn't the Chicago Public Schools
The irony of making the Chicago schools relatively solvent is that when the next funding problems crept up, the suburbs and moderately funded downstate schools would be screaming for help from the state when it had been them screaming the loudest about Chicago.
I hope those districts teach irony well
archpundit 2/21/2003 5:59:52 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Speaking of leaks
Isn't it strange how all these leaks from Chicago US Attorneys and FBI people go to Kass? Perhaps Patrick 'the quiet' Fitzgerald handles his press contacts a bit differently than he portrays in his press conferences.
archpundit 2/21/2003 12:13:33 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
What do you mean the records are missing?
It appears that Outfit operators are getting nervous as a former Outfit member's prison records are now unable to be located. Kass points out to those of us with a bit less of clue, this is probably due to entering the Witness Protection Program.
archpundit 2/21/2003 12:11:36 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Fire Finger Pointing
I've not commented on the fire at E2 yet because I was unable to make any reliable judgments of the politics surrouding the whole deal. Certainly, the city dropped the ball in checking on the location as Phil Kadner points out. This seems to me not to be a big story.
The question is whether there is more going on underneath. The uber-cynical version is in audio by NPR which interviewed John Kass.
Kass's argument is that a restaurant that fell on the wrong side of the oxymoronic Coalition for Better Government and the power brokers in Chicago.
The problem I have with Kass's argument is that it is a lot different to neglect to figure out whether a club is open and actively trying to shut down a restaurant. That being said, Kadner's last few lines explain what probably happened.
The problem of corruption in Chicago is not that all politicians are corrupt, it is that too many accept it as a way of doing business and don't actively root it out. And Kass points out the problem with having few independent voices willing to stand up to Daley.
Jesse Jackson came to Chicago as an outsider, but now has an amazing degree of influence over local politics. That influence is unfortunately more interested in Jackson family wealth than making waves.
Kass points out that Sr. was more upset over the Barbershop than he was over 21 young adult African-Americans losing their lives. For this and many other reasons, Chicago misses having people like Harold Washington around. They played the political game and the greased the wheel, but they also kept people honest. In fact, you didn't see Jackson in Chicago much during Washington's time in office because he exiled him.
archpundit 2/21/2003 12:06:39 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Devine Starting To Wake Up?
It might seem odd to many readers of this blog why I have so much respect for Richard Devine. I am highly critical of his positions on death penalty reform and what is a somewhat mediocre view on prosecutorial misconduct. In the interest of disclosure, I'm familiar with some people close to him though I don't receive tips from them. From those relationships, I've developed a good deal of respect for him.
He is moving in the right direction on two issues. First, he is working on a pilot taping program for police. Much of the resistance to taping confessions is coming from the police departments. They feel taping will hamper their effectiveness. The flip side of the argument is that by taping confessions, claims of coercion won't be so easy to make. I fall in the second camp and believe taping will ultimately improve police effectiveness. The problem is getting police to buy into it. Devine is seeking to start a pilot program that will help do so. What has seemed like intransigence is starting to look like consensus building.
On a second issue, Devine has set up a special team to examine DNA evidence of convicted felons in Cook County. This is to be commended. While I would like to see a team working on all prosecutorial misconduct, this is a good start.
If death penalty reform is to work in Illinois, supporters of the Death Penalty such as Devine will need to seek some common ground with reformers. While I have no hope for DuPage County prosecutor Joe Birkett, there is some hope for reform with prosecutors like Devine.
archpundit 2/21/2003 11:47:39 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Chicago Aldermanic Races
Steve Neal of the Sun-Times is running an excellent series of columns on the upcoming Aldermanic races. This is an excellent series and well done.
The columns on the 12th, 20th and 18th are probably the best in learning about Chicago politics and how it works.
archpundit 2/21/2003 11:28:42 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
If there is a reason to celebrate Fitzgerald
Here it is. Segal has been targeted by the most aggressive federal prosecutor since Jim Thompson, and well, frankly, Patrick Fitzgerald is probably more aggressive than Thompson since it doesn't appear Patrick Fitzgerald has any political goals in Illinois. Peter Fitzgerald is responsible for placing him, and it has produced excellent results.
While no single guy can clean up Northern Illinois, there are more active investigations of politicians and corruptions at one time than at any time I can remember, and these are the ones we know about.
archpundit 2/21/2003 11:23:55 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Sneed's Stuff
Oh please, no. Poshard is thinking of getting in the Senate Race. Poshard is a nice guy and clearly a stand up guy, but he is too conservative and too old. One of the promising aspects of this race is that there are excellent young candidates running.
If he wants to be of service to the State of Illinois, take out Shimkus.
Sneed also calls into question some of the numbers in the DCFS missing kids problem. I've largely ignored the issue because the original reports made it sound mild. If Sneed is correct, the problem is quite significant.
archpundit 2/21/2003 11:19:44 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Is Carol Mosely Braun a Crook?
Asks Slate.
They kind of let her off the hook and certainly don't draw a conclusion.
The nearly five-year investigation did turn up some splurges, like a $4,000 tab at the Four Seasons Hotel in Maui, but the agency declined to take legal action, citing a lack of resources. The Justice Department similarly turned down two requests from the Internal Revenue Service to investigate Moseley-Braun for criminal misappropriation of campaign funds.
Moseley-Braun seems to think she was vindicated. Not only was she not vindicated, she demonstrated incredibly bad judgment.
archpundit 2/20/2003 1:42:41 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Blagojevich Rumors
It looks like some operatives out there are trying to tie the Madigan line about indiscretions on the part of Blagojevich to an extramarital affair. The story hasn't broke that I have seen and my guess is there isn't anything to it. It is ugly politics though.
archpundit 2/20/2003 11:29:52 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Rename the Chicago Cultural Center
As I predicted in my Political State Report article on the death of Sis Daley, John Kass is pushing for the Chicago Cultural Center to be renamed for her again. He had pushed the idea previously, but she had called and asked him to not continue.
I agree with Kass and would hope that it becomes so.
archpundit 2/20/2003 11:20:59 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
WMD Sailing in Circles?
Via Centerpoint-
Apparently there is speculation that three ships might contain Iraqi chemical or biological weapons. The ships have been sailing around in circles for months and even stranger they are maintaining radio silence.
What isn't said in the article is what seems pretty clear to me--that before hostilities break out, those ships will have to be taken by the US and Great Britain. If, by chance, they do have biological or chemical weapons they could be used on ports in a terrorist attack.
archpundit 2/20/2003 11:16:56 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Weyrich Letter is very strange
Virginia Postrel points out the Weyrich letter to The New Republic isn't even about an article in TNR and that it is weird. She is correct. Then again, Lind and Weyrich are pretty weird guys.
archpundit 2/19/2003 12:14:41 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
3 Posts
At the Political State Report
--Sis Daley
--New Gov Stumbles sort of
--Quick profile of IL Democratic Senate Candidate for 2004.
archpundit 2/19/2003 12:09:50 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Time Lambert has
but he caught another problem with Lott's work. Apparently the parabola does not fit, but one must not acquit...
Drip, drip, drip...
archpundit 2/18/2003 8:42:23 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Speaking of Stupid Leader Articles
This idiot claims that it would have taken him an 2 hours to get from Belleville to Lambert Airport by Metrolink. Sure-if he lived an hour from the Belleville station. The trip is one hour. Of my many complaints with Bi-State, Metrolink isn't one of them. However, there is a problem if some people are too dumb to read a schedule.
archpundit 2/18/2003 6:48:34 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Leader's ERA obsession
With the tactic to try and bring back the ERA for consideration to the US Constitution gaining steam, the Illinois Leader opens fire and is either too dumb or just lying about the effect of the Equal Rights Amendment. It is really a twofer for them since Illinois House Minority Leader, Tom Cross, is a supporter of the ERA, they can attack both at once.
First, let me say, I don't really understand the movement. It seems to me that the language of the amendment precludes it being considered further at this point, but I'll leave that to Constitutional Scholars. I am for an ERA though and fail to understand why it has never been passed.
The Leader decides to pull out all of the garbage Phyllis Schlafly and other conservatives used to defeat it the first time.
Let's run them down:
1) Women will be drafted and forced to serve in combat
2) It will legalize gay marriages
3) It entitles women special rights
4) It automatically means state funded abortions
Well, one is correct. Women will be drafted and if they made the fitness levels, they would serve in combat. Some do now, though only in the Navy or in jets. Welcome to the 21st century, women have the same obligations as men in our republic.
Two is nonsense, absolute Schlafly bullshit. The ERA would make gender a suspect classification, not sexual orientation. I'm for sexual orientation being a suspect classification, but the ERA doesn't do that.
Three, well no, forcing the state to only treat you differently if there is a compelling state interst isn't a special right, it is something that should be normal for a feature that is irrelevant to one's participation as a citizen. Having ovaries is irrelevalant to one's participation as a citizen.
Four, is simply not true. There is some argument that abortion would be further protected by the ERA because of equal protection. IOW, because men don't have the same restrictions on reproduction, similar restrictions on women would be unconstitutional. However, claiming state funding of abortions would be mandated is simply not true. Given the state doesn't have to fund health care, this is a silly claim.
My favorite not contained in the article is that there will only be unisex bathrooms. I'm sure that is in the next article.
The ERA should be a non-controversial issue. It isn't solely about women either, despite what the wingnut fringe would like to claim. It makes gender a suspect classification just as race, religion and national origin currently are. There is nothing special about this at all.
The ERA is yet another attempt by the loony Left to force through an agenda that would have slim popular support if it was not couched in egalitarian feel-good sophistry. It might also help if Republican lemmings stopped chasing the almighty suburban soccer mom vote right off the sanity cliff.
Or if wingnuts got a clue...
archpundit 2/18/2003 6:22:02 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
My Writing can be bad
But Joyce never disappoints and chimes in again with a nearly unreadable essay on consensus building.
archpundit 2/18/2003 6:04:04 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Moseley-Braun Slogan Contest
Is taking place over at Cornfield Commentary.
I got nothing...
archpundit 2/18/2003 5:56:52 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Gregg Easterbrook gets more mileage
out of one bad subsidy than any professional writer should be able to. This isn't a slam at Gregg Easterbrook, one of my favorite environmental policy writers, it is a slam at politicians who keep reinvinting the square wheel and claiming it will now work.
First, he does a good job describing the barriers to a hydrogen economy well. My argument is that one should start a competition to develop hydrogen sources economically and energy efficiently over time. It is a technical problem, a big one for sure, but it is a solvable technical problem.
Second, he ups his mileage on pointing out how the President's plan is a stupid, as he pointed out previously about the Supercar Program under Clinton. For a more detailed version see the Chicago Tribune seriesDemonstrating that no bad idea can die, Dubya decided to reinvent the program so that it won't produce a fuel cell car just as the first didn't produce a Supercar. However, it does stop pressure on CAFE standards--or pressure for the better solution as I linked to Dynamist earlier--gas taxes.
archpundit 2/18/2003 5:55:02 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Title IX confusion
I've been a bit befuddled about what to write about the Title IX commission's suggestions for reforms. First, it is vital that only sports is allowed to be considered because beyond that, Title IX shouldn't be controversial at all. The commission refused to get rid of the proportionality rule as many wrestling advocates wanted. That is good. What does it mean, well neither, I nor the Chicago Tribune can figure that out. Modest changes in flexibility may not be the end of the world, but I can't really tell what the hell they are actually proposing.
archpundit 2/18/2003 5:36:03 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
South Suburban Metra Shift
Bill Lipinski apparently knocked someone over the head and Metra is now doing a study for a south suburban run.
archpundit 2/18/2003 5:29:58 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Damn
The note about Hart I sent to Virginia Postrel is just about unreadable with its odd sentence structures. But thanks to Virginia for posting it.
Oh, and scroll down to her post on SUVs and taxes--it is a good post.
archpundit 2/18/2003 4:39:01 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
EPA finally addresses Zonolite seriously
In a rather strange series of events, the Post-Dispatch dropped the story they broke big and now the EPA is finally going to take effective action.
archpundit 2/18/2003 1:13:17 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
15,000 Hits
Thanks!
archpundit 2/18/2003 12:54:43 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
William S. Lind and Gary Hart's comments
Welcome back to 7 Degrees of Separation from fruitcakes. And this time, I'm more than a little concerned. Recently, Gary Hart made some comments about immigrants (via Virginia Postrel--the woman with no permalinks versus my interminably long permalinks):
"We must not let our role in the world be dictated by ideologues with their special biases and agendas ... or by Americans who too often find it hard to distinguish their loyalties to their original homelands from their loyalties to America and its national interests."
On first reading and knowing Hart's background I'd have to agree with Virginia that these are simply a larger part of Hart's concern about the social fabric and social cohesion. Nothing to work oneself up in a dither about unless one wants to dislike Gary Hart.
However, on the way in to work on Metrolink this morning, I was reading my most recent issue of the New Republic. In the February 10th edition there is a letter from one of my favorite wingnut loons, Paul Weyrich (scroll down), Chairman and CEO of the Free Congress Foundation.
Of course, the Free Congress Foundation and a particular fruitloop by the name of William S. Lind occupied this bloggers obsessive compulsive streak for a few posts previously including this one.
Lind is a fruitcake of the first order. Besides hanging out with Paul Weyrich, he spoke at the Barnes Review Third International Conference on Authentic History and the First Amendment. Essentially this was a bunch of historical revisionists and fruitcakes, many of whom are holocaust deniers.
Virginia Postrel puts Hart's comments into some reasonable context, but Lind was a military advisor to Hart. Doesn't this actually reopen the question of what Hart means?
I guess I want to give Hart the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't be willing to give anyone else the benefit of the doubt so I won't. Does anyone know of any comments Hart has made about this fruitcake? Or if the fruitcake might have dismissed Hart?
Update: Thanks Digby! I got Lind's name right in the title, but called him Michael in the text. The text is corrected above.
archpundit 2/18/2003 10:32:48 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
On a Sad Note
Sis Daley passed away.
Besides giving Royko a boost in sales for the classic Boss, she was also influential in supporting preservation in Chicago.
archpundit 2/18/2003 12:33:09 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Daley Cubed--4 More Years of Wrought Iron!
A bit of nitpicking, but primarily glowing endorsements of Richard M Daley for another term as Mayor of Chicago from the Chicago Sun-Times, Chicago Tribune, and Crains.
The Sun-Times points out his major opponent lives in la-la land:
Beyond firing Chicago Police Supt. Terry Hillard, Terry Peterson, head of the Chicago Housing Authority, and Arne Duncan, the CEO of Chicago Public Schools, Daley challenger the Rev. Paul D. Jakes fails to offer one thoughtful plan that outlines how those agencies could be vastly improved under his leadership. For example, Jakes' proposal to provide "more social services and job training" for CHA residents ignores the reality that these services are a major component of CHA's plan for transformation.
Daley has attacked systemic problems in the City and because of his leadership, the City of Chicago is weathering the economic downturn reasonably well. He has reformed public housing, the police (still a ways to go), public education, and is now seeking to reduce homicide. The City of Chicago is as a city should be and most of the credit for that should go to a man who cannot be separated from it, Richard M. Daley. Far more inclusive than his father, and still far from perfect, he has willed a great city to remain so.
What is strange is that even those who endorse him fail to grasp how important some of his initiatives are. Crain's takes issue with two quality of life initiatives they don't seem to understand of which they don't understand the importance. While I happily make fun of the Mayor's obsession with wrought iron, making the city livable means making it friendly and walkable. His initiative with gardens on rooftops is ahead of its time. Maybe some businesses felt bullied, but it is in their own self-interest in the long run. Concrete collects too much heat and over time, that would make the city unlivable. Forcing businesses to take that into account will benefit everyone in the city in the long run.
archpundit 2/17/2003 11:40:35 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Would Lincoln Be a Blogger?
Is what I was thinking as reading this commentary in today's Post-Dispatch.
archpundit 2/17/2003 11:23:41 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Steve Neal finds someone else loathesome
And he is pretty much correct about Dorothy Tillman.
Tillman, who owns more than 200 hats, is the Mad Hatter of South Side politics.
The article covers the lowlights of her career pretty well. She is toxic to politics and much like her St. Louis doppleganger, Sharon Tyus, no one will miss her.
archpundit 2/17/2003 10:48:55 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Seinfeld Crisis
Relatively new blog CenterPoint, points out three intertwining plots apparently about nothing.
archpundit 2/14/2003 11:15:02 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Effects on LIHTC by Bush 'stimulus' plan
Low Income Housing Tax Credits are potentially worth far less under the Bush plan to eliminate taxes on dividends. Of the many problems this kind of reform will bring to public entities including tax-exempt bonds, this is another serious problem. The provision of affordable housing is becoming more difficult without government intervention. As McCarron points out, the LIHTCs are great because they combine subsidies with strong corporate oversight of the projects. If LIHTCs are undermined, affordable housing will be dealt a serious blow.
archpundit 2/14/2003 11:03:49 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
And Remember Death is Not an Option
Andrew Sullivan or Anne Lamott?
archpundit 2/14/2003 10:54:57 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Another Dem Joins the Field
Joyce Washington announces she is in the replace Fitzgerald race. Whatever.
archpundit 2/14/2003 10:52:10 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Real Terrorism Provisions
Martinis and salami
archpundit 2/14/2003 10:45:16 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Love
The Post-Dispatch uncovers the John Lott-Mary Rosh love poems.
archpundit 2/14/2003 10:15:49 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
McKenna plants poll with Steve Neal
Neal takes a shot at one of his two favorite targets, Peter Fitzgerald. And the news is not good for the reclusive Fitzgerald. His generic reelect is at 24 percent.
I'm surprised it is that low given Fitzgerald hasn't been that vocal, but that seems to be the key. He makes few public appearances and doesn't announce his schedule so few in Illinois know what the guy is doing.
Neal dislike Fitzgerald and has made no bones about it. He quite often expresses the same level of dislike for Dick Durbin. The poll was leaked from a Republican source which means someone from McKenna's camp trying to soften the blow of taking on an incumbent. Possibly Lahood or Hastert's people passed it on if it wasn't McKenna himself.
Given how bruising such a primary would be and Fitzgerald's good standing with conservatives who have the nominating process locked up, it is likely that Illinois will be a Democratic pick-up barring a stupid choice. Given the stupidest choice is thinking of running for President, Fitzgerald is probably leaving DC in two years.
archpundit 2/12/2003 12:04:58 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Everybody is sooooo lame
As channeled by Josh Marshall. You know, I understand why unreconstructed knuckle draggers want to pretend the US is okay going it alone all of the time, but why more mainstream people haven't been shocked at the administration's clumsiness with our historical and democratic allies is a mystery.
archpundit 2/12/2003 11:16:47 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Jeesh
CNN is reporting
But while the broadcast message declared solidarity with Iraqis, it made no mention of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and even denounced his socialist Baath party as "infidels."
Okay, I'm for the war, but can we stop the inane meme that Al Qaeda and Iraq are in league with one another? Bin Laden probably wants us to take out Hussein so he can start to build a pan Arab Muslim state starting with revolts in Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
archpundit 2/12/2003 12:55:20 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Note on postings
Expect fewer during the day and more at night.
archpundit 2/12/2003 12:47:14 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Volokh Gets Snarky
With Nazis and it is pretty damn funny. Eugene is normally one of the more unshakably polite folks in the world and he needs to let loose on such targets from time to time. What I missed while updating the templates....
archpundit 2/12/2003 12:45:56 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Patron Saint of Lost Causes
Ben DeClue is running a Draft Bradley campaign. He claims there are rumblings, but I haven't heard any from the Bradley campaign's 2000 team so I'm skeptical. However, it is Bill Bradley, sign up.
archpundit 2/12/2003 12:21:34 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Shocking: Regulator Sold Fundraising Tickets
The third oldest profession in Illinois is political fundraiser and the news that an SOS regulator was selling fundraising tickets to those he regulated should only serve as a wake-up call to the more dimwitted Illinois citizens who have had their heads up their butts for the last 50 years. It isn't right, it should be stopped, and everyone to hold the damn office including people like Jim Edgar knew it went on. Clean it up, but let's save the handwringing for something we didn't know about.
archpundit 2/12/2003 12:19:14 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
One Case at a Time
Perhaps the Illinois penal system needs a twelve step program. Talk Left reports that Illinois' State Appellate Defender's office is organizing to fight every death sentence from the bottom up as they come through the system.
While I am hopeful this will result in decent representation, as I mention in the comments section, I'm concerned it will lead to lower funding levels. Don't take that as a criticism, but my cynical spidey senses are going off.
archpundit 2/12/2003 12:16:28 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Wrap-Up
CalPundit was turned down for an interview by Lott on his mysterious survey. Given Lott took his marbles and went home before bothering to answer why he is repeating an inferior survey, one has to wonder if the entire schtick isn't brilliant marketing.
Get some rather dimwitted gun rights advocates to jump on your bandwagon with some half-ass research that they don't have the technical competency to understand (or a over anxious law prof/blogger) and then cry persecution whenever anyone asks reasonable questions about your methods and evidence. Even better, always move the argument over to a survey for which there is conveniently no way to verify or disprove its existence and avoid discussing the actual methodology of it or of your primary work. Get one peer reviewed article out there, publish a book based on the article and then turn to Regnery to rake in some cash. Good work if you can get it. You can also whine that no one will hire you.
I have little more to say given that no one with any integrity is going to take this clown seriously. For those interested in following it closely, Tim Lambert continues to do a bang up job. By this point, Lott's sexual identity is being questioned and well, it is sophomoric and kinda funny.
Having little more to say doesn't mean nothing more to say so expect more as the situation merits.
One thing I do have left is that Lott claimed in one interview that it was reasonable to allow his wife and son to post a fraudulent review under the pseudonym Mary Rosh. He seemed taken aback by the notion that he should have intervened when they posted the Amazon review. In my view, yes he should have intervened. Teaching your children ethical conduct is an important part of being a parent. Misrepresenting oneself as a disinterested observer is far different than say posting anonymously. I can guarantee you I won't be blogging about any of my work in my non-anonymous life.
archpundit 2/12/2003 12:09:30 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Finally
D-Squared has taken up my call for a Reader's Digest version of Den Beste. I'm glad it is someone else unfortunate place to decipher the ramblings for the rest of us with a life.
archpundit 2/11/2003 11:53:24 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Fawell: "The first rule in this business
'Never write anything down,'" or so says Rich Miller. As I mentioned on Political State Report. No one is surprised the list existed, they are surprised it is in writing.
The Sun-Times has the list up here.
archpundit 2/11/2003 11:50:00 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Beginner's Mistakes
Rich Miller over at the is going apopolectic over the lack of information flowing from the G-Rod administration along with State-Journal Register columnist Bernard Schoenburg. While they are correct that this could turn into a problem, the immediate impact is pretty non-existent. Primarily it is the press wringing their hands over insider baseball and voters don't care.
archpundit 2/11/2003 11:40:43 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Three posts upcoming at Political State Report
Check out The Political State Report in the morning. I have three posts that will be up then:
1) Tollway Authority Reform
2) South Suburb Revolt
3) Daley has to bother with an election?
archpundit 2/11/2003 11:09:28 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Snyder out at Corrections
One of the areas in Illinois government that has long had a bunch of cockroaches hiding in the dark is the Corrections Department. In 1999 that changed a great deal when George Ryan appointed Don Snyder. Snyder put an end to the inmates running the prison system. It was so bad in some facilities that some areas were painted with gang colors. Discipline for inmates and guards were non-existent and peace was largely maintained by buying off gangs with privileges. There is a lot of dirt there for an enterprising reporter to dig up. Snyder put an end to that and reformed the system in pretty damn record time.
For those who wonder how bad it could be remember, Richard Speck, a convicted serial killer, receiving illegal hormones to grow breasts, having a cocaine party with some pals and having a video recorder to tape the whole thing. But that wasn't the real scandal, the real scandal was how quickly Edgar quashed the investigations into the prison system.
There is nothing dark about his replacement, Ernesto Velasco. It appears he is competent and should maintain a reasonable level of professionalism in the DOC. Snyder deserves praise for his service to the State of Illinois.
archpundit 2/10/2003 1:06:44 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Updates done, back Sunday!
Sorry for the unplanned absence, but I needed to update the template, blogroll and busy personal life. Tomorrow I'll return.
archpundit 2/08/2003 11:49:01 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Later, but
Get your fix of Illinois Politics at the Political State Report. Two posting up today.
archpundit 2/05/2003 2:13:36 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Fixing the Template
And updating the blogroll. Check out the new links while you are here!
archpundit 2/04/2003 5:22:09 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Back Later
Busy...
archpundit 2/03/2003 3:29:21 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Shuttle Accident and the Legend of Pad 39- B
The loss of the Columbia's Crew is a tragedy and my prayers go out to their familys.
The cause of the accident will take a while to determine, but a couple things to keep in mind are the shuttle doesn't glide into its landing spot, it falls like a controlled rock with some wind resistance. The process of reentry is pretty hairy and a minor malfunction or human mistake at the wrong moment can distribute heat to the portion of the shuttle and cause a massive failure such as this. Finally, from an interview with one of the crew members aired on CNN, the shuttle was returning with its heaviest load since the beginning of the program.
While I understand the administration explaining there are no signs of terrorism, the notion that this was terrorism is a bit silly. The meme after any disaster continues though with the Reynolds two-step of mentioning terrorism as unlikely, but offering up the who knows line adding a dark overtone. The problem as with other similar instances is that it encourage hypervigilance instead of rational calculation of risks. In updates he points out why it is unlikely terrorism. Less bright individuals have chimed in as well.
One of the long held legends around Kennedy Space Center is that Pad 39-B is jinxed. Today's flight originated from that pad as did STS-25, the Challenger accident. STS-25 was the first shuttle launch from 39-B, as it had just finished being retrofited. In the more strange forms of the legend Apollo I and XIII are included in the list of mishaps, but Apollo I occurred on 34-A and XIII launched from 39-A. Several incidents while working on the pad have also occurred, but I don't have any details of those handy. Like many legends, the legend overtakes the facts.
The shuttle will fly again once the cause is determined. Unfortunately, given the current fiscal situation it seems unlikely that we will be seeing the next generation of space vehichle for some time. That is unfortunate. One interesting statistic regarding the Challenger accident is that if one takes the required probability of essential systems functioning properly, and multiply those by each other, there was a one in 25 chance of the shuttle facing a catastrophic failure. In a Kennedy-Lincoln like coincidence, STS-25 was the first shuttle lost.
As a tribute can I suggest the rerelease of Hail Columbia! I remember seeing years ago in Huntsville,Alabama as a part of Space Camp. Given it isn't regularly played around the country anymore, a rerelease would be a wonderful way to remember Columbia and its crew. For those who haven't seen it on an Omnimax screen, it is amazing.
Update: I thought this would show up as a parody at Eschaton. I was wrong:
Via phone, my mother just reported that William Burrows (on NBC) called Congress an "unindicted co-conspirator" for its bad policy and budgetary neglect. That's about right.
The sheer number of problems that can happen to an experimental craft boggles the mind. Before declaring Congress an unindicted co-conspirator, one might want to know WHAT THE FUCK HAPPENED!
As a note, the Challenger didn't occur because of inadequate funding, but because of bad safety decisions made due to political pressure from a different branch to get the teacher into space.
archpundit 2/01/2003 10:49:19 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lance has his Priorities Straight
Lance Armstrong will win his 5th Tour regardless of security threats. Well, he didn't exactly say that, but I did.
archpundit 1/31/2003 10:44:53 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Jacob Levy announces
He is writing for TNR online with is first column on the Individual Indian Money trust fund. It is excellent.
archpundit 1/29/2003 3:03:24 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The List so far
Is over at my favorite parody site, the Illinois Leader.
While I enjoy making fun of them, they have had excellent coverage of the scandal.
archpundit 1/29/2003 1:38:07 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Blogstudio Ad
The site has been slow for a couple days because of some upgrades, but let me recommend Blogstudio for those looking to start a blog or change who they use. Overall, I'm very happy with the service and quality of the site. I find it more intuitive to use than Blogger and certainly more reliable. In addition, comments and RSS Feed is available for $15/year and stats are coming. I'm sure there will eventually be a price increase, but I expect that will still be lower than Blogger Pro.
For those looking for more advanced features, the also offer web site hosting.
Most important is that they respond very quickly to me when I do have a problem.
Testimony over.
archpundit 1/29/2003 1:23:09 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Post at Political State Report
on the likely return of Straight Ticket Voting in Illinois. Link is to the general site because you should be reading it anyway.
archpundit 1/29/2003 1:15:50 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Inhofe talks about the Environment
Is there a bigger idiot in Congress than James Inhofe? And he is now chair of Senate Environment and Public Works. Can James Watt like allusions about the second coming be far behind.
archpundit 1/29/2003 12:58:57 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hill Spotlights Fitzgerald Troubles
I'm not sure there is anything new to this story for readers of this blog, but The Hill covers the potential primary challenge for Fitzgerald. The only new news is Jack Ryan is definitely out. The State GOP needs to figure out how to get that guy to run for something because he would be a very formidable candidate.
That is, if the Trekkies don't get to upset about the whole Jeri thing...
archpundit 1/29/2003 12:47:34 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Just wondering
Kevin McDermott out there?
Chris Mooney?
Drop me a note if so. I'm just curious.
archpundit 1/29/2003 12:40:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Blagojevich Serious about Ethics?
Who knew? But Rich Miller at the Capitol Fax is reporting that he is making those taking appointed positions empty out their political funds.
This might seem like common sense to those outside Illinois, but this is entirely new ground for a state that shrugs off most corruption.
archpundit 1/29/2003 12:02:58 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
My apologies
To Steven Den Beste who I snarkily made fun of the other day, but he demonstrates a good sense of humor about himself here. And he sent me the Reader's Digest Version!
archpundit 1/29/2003 9:29:14 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Only in Madison
I remember an evening about 10 years ago when there were competing rallies concerning an issue affecting lesbians. I was in awe of the fact that there were enough politically active lesbians to pull off dueling protests. Madison is very unlike the rest of the Midwest and this story is only an example.
archpundit 1/28/2003 5:12:06 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The disturbing language of Affirmative Action
Normally, I'm most disturbed by the conflation of quotas and affirmative action, but lately I've been just as disturbed by college administrators who use the term diversity to justify affirmative action. Diversity is important and should be sought out, but more important to the underlying need for affirmative action is the need to promote opportunity. Nancy Cantor, current U of Illinois Champaign Chancellor argues for some race based factors in admissions, but fails to mention the importance of opportunity for underrepresented minorities.
archpundit 1/28/2003 4:09:46 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hello, My name is Betty and I have a gambling problem
This woman couldn't be more screwed up.
archpundit 1/28/2003 3:38:48 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Sneed Round-up, Indictments, Obama and Barr Topinka for Guv?
Michael Sneed reports:
Sneed hears rumbles indictments of some McCormick Place honchos may be imminent. Hmmmm. Does it involve McPier Board contracts?
Gulp!
This will be ugly.
U.S. Senate hopeful Barack Obama, who was ecstatic when former U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun pulled out of her bid to recapture her old seat, may still have to hit the bottle of Excedrin.
*The reason: Former lieutenant governor hopeful Joyce Washington is considering entering the Senate fray.
*The extra reason: Moseley-Braun's exit meant Obama could wake up with at least a guaranteed 32 percent of the Dem primary vote. (Obama, a state senator, was just voted among the top 100 Dem leaders to watch by the national Democratic Leadership Council.
DLC doesn't have this posted yet. Joyce Washington? One has to wonder if she is a real candidate.
Judy. Judy. Judy. Governor Judy?
Sneed hears the White House views state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, the only Republican to win statewide election, as a formidable candidate for Illinois governor in 2006.
*To wit: Isn't that one reason Topinka is heading to Washington, D.C., this week, where she will be queried about spearheading the Bush re-election campaign in Illinois? You bet.
Oh, how the conservatives will howl...
archpundit 1/28/2003 3:25:07 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
2, Count 'em 2 Posts
Over at the Political State Report.
Firing of Ryan Appointees and the Favors List.
Speaking of the Favors list, Mark Brown does an excellent job of providing context and making one laugh.
archpundit 1/28/2003 3:10:17 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hull isn't afraid of going down in a pile of money
It is definitely going to be money versus organization in the Democratic Primary, the Sun-Times reports Hull is willing to spend $40 million of his own money.
If he doesn't get Mell/Blagojevich backing this looks like the second grounding of Al Hofeld minus the later personal problems.
archpundit 1/28/2003 2:43:57 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Senator Hizzoner?
Washington Whispers is reporting that Hizzoner is considering a run at Fitzgerald. I don't buy it. Running Chicago is his thing and there are no natural torch bearers to hand it to right now. My guess is US News got it confused with Daley actively seeking a strong challenger to Fitzgerald.
archpundit 1/28/2003 2:35:58 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Nonsense
The question John Lott won't answer is why do a survey incapable of providing valid and reliable results for the question he is trying to ask. Lott has been shopping around the number that 98% of DGU (Defensive Gun Uses) occur without a shot being fired. This is significantly different than the results of others studies. No other study shows a figure of less than 21% of DGUs involving the weapon being fired. I've asked him three times and he has yet to provide a substantive response.
If one thinks there is a major methodological flaw that is inflating the rate of DGUs with a discharge, one would design a study that improved upon previous designs. His does not. It offers an instrument that is rudimentary, sampling methods that are suspect to be generous, and a sample size smaller than at least one previous study. In addition, the execution of both the first survey and second survey can kindly be called amateurish. The question I have asked him three times is how does his study hope to improve upon the 1995 paper by Kleck and Gertz. His only on topic response was:
There are significant problems with using a five year window. Sure it helps you get a bigger sample of defensive gun uses, but there is also a lot more error. For example, using five years is likely to results in respondents including cases that go back even further than five years. Answers to questions about what happened are also likely to contain more errors.
This is a terribly misleading response given that Kleck and Gertz's 1995 piece looked at both 5 year and 1 year time frames because of the issues involved in 5 year recollections. In the single year time period, the Kleck and Gertz survey recorded 56 respondent DGUs and 68 Household DGUs, both numbers over twice the number in Lott's first survey. Now in both surveys these samples are too small to make too strong of claims regarding the subsamples of DGUs. However, given Lott had 25 DGUs, his MOE is +/- 20 percent compared to Kleck and Gertz with +/- 13.4 percent (using individuals since Lott didn't check on households--this is also problematic--see Lamber from the 12th). Even if Lott is foolish enough to try and claim both surveys as his sample size, he would end up with fewer cases than Kleck and Gertz. The newer survey being conducted has provided about 1015 responses and so if it is truly consistent with the mysterious first survey, the responses would only produce 10.5 more DGUs for a total of 35.5. This is still lower than the K & G survey sample of one year reports. And I made a mistake yesterday. Tim Lambert found the 1 year time frame produced identical rates for firing of the 5 year time frame respondents. Mea Culpa. As a note, Tim has been on this issue for far longer and while I'm hoping that I'm adding something, he has a far greater amount of information.
His other responses were complaining about what he feels is a misrepresenation by me:
As for the 2002 survey, a number of calls (form the surveyors end) were indeed randomly listened to by me. In all defensive gun uses, the surveyors were debriefed that night or the following morning about the call. All the respondents in these cases volunteered extensive details of what happened with the defensive gun use. None of the defensive gun uses recorded involved defensive uses by police. A couple of our surveyors had previous experience and I asked them to talk to the other surveyors before surveying began. As a result of call backs, over 50 percent of telephone numbers produced completed interviews.
Given the picture emerging of John Lott's understanding of survey research, I'll stand by my comment that the second survey isn't an improvement and there was no effective supervision of callers. He does claim that a couple of the callers had some experience and they talked to the others. My, how comforting. Apparently he feels that his surveys are of the quality of the Kleck and Gertz survey, but can't explain why.
John Lott is apparently uninterested in explaining how his survey is an improvement of better executed surveys in the past. Given this, one has to question whether Lott has a goal besides covering himself. Neither survey would be an improvement upon the Kleck and Gertz work or other works and so one is left with the uncomfortable feeling that John Lott is in the business of producing results that fit what he wants and not what he observes. The alternative is that he doesn't understand the extent of the problem. Ignorance is not a flattering excuse in this case.
But to take this one step further, while Kleck and Gertz are limited in their one year conclusions, their survey is inadequate to make strong conclusions from and they point this out in their article. To add to the literature, Lott would need to not just meet that survey's quality, he would need to improve upon it with a higher number of DGU respondents. Instead, he will have fewer, but he expects the public to accept the results. That's chutzpah.
Jacob Levy added a comment regarding the incident. The IRB issues has been dismissed because the Chicago Law School apparently ignored such rules. This is disturbing, but arguably Lott was a part of a larger problem in that case. What is most disturbing, as I've said before, is that Lott had survey research with connecting information being stored and entered in dorm rooms. This isn't a technical violation of the treatment of human subjects, this is a serious violation of how such material should be stored to protect human subjects' privacy. Of all people, gun rights advocates should understand the importance of this.
In a larger sense, my views on gun control have largely been shaped by works like that of Kleck and Gertz. I don't necessarily have a problem with concealed carry, I dislike HCI for many of the same reasons I dislike Lott, and I think guns should be generally available to the public though preferably with an FOID system as Illinois has. Why would some gun rights advocates work so hard to protect a charlatan when other credible researchers are out there that make solid arguments concerning the defensive use of guns that are overwhelmingly positive for gun rights advocates? Clearly, not all gun rights advocates take Lott seriously, but it seems that he is considered by some advocates as more credible and impressive than people like Kleck. I don't get it.
archpundit 1/28/2003 1:28:39 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Green Energy Bill up in the Lege
Rich Miller at the Capitol Fax reports:
"GREEN" ENERGY BILL COMING Crain's Chicago Business reported over the weekend that a bill will be introduced soon to require the state's electric utilities to purchase a portion of their power from renewable sources.
The bill, which will be sponsored by Sen. Pat Welch (D-Peru), will force electric companies to buy 5 percent of their power from renewable sources by 2010, and 15 pecent by 2020. The utilities question the reliability and availability of alternative sources like wind power and say it costs more. But proponents claim the cost is about the same for wind and natural gas (3 cents per kilowatt-hour for gas and 3 to 4 cents for wind), and say the initial 5 percent requirement is sufficiently modest. Several companies are hoping to build "wind farms" in central Illinois, according to the article, but the investments may not be made without the legislation.
This is great news. One of the critical aspects of encouraging green energy is creating a market for it. This would provide for competition between such suppliers and in the short description, ultimately make it affordable.
archpundit 1/27/2003 7:37:29 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lott's Response Today
From John Lott:
Here is a suggestion. If you have a question about whether something was done in the survey, it might make more sense to ask the question whether it was done rather than asserting that it must not be true. I had simply asked James to write up specific points, particularly how the survey sample was gathered. The discussion that I sent you dealt with the issues that had previously been raised.
There are significant problems with using a five year window. Sure it helps you get a bigger sample of defensive gun uses, but there is also a lot more error. For example, using five years is likely to results in respondents including cases that go back even further than five years. Answers to questions about what happened are also likely to contain more errors.
So Lott wants to claim that his survey 'improves upon' Kleck and Gertz (1995) because he limits it to one year. That might have some merit if he used the same or better survey techniques and his sampling was anything close to the quality of Kleck and Gertz's.
He didn't. In fact, the Kleck and Gertz survey called back to verify results on all DGUs, instituted several criteria to ensure accuracy in relation to actual civilian defensive use, and significant screening was used to determine the nature of the reported DGU unit.
Anytime anyone is asked to report a memory, the farther back the event, the lest trustworthy the memory. Lott is correct in this and this is why one would use probe the memory and attempt to establish credibility. Additionally, self-reporting can often inflate the reports, something Kleck was very concerned with, something Lott, despite protestations of being provided extensive details by all DGU respondents, did not do in the instrument.
Of course, what Lott is not mentioning and is highly relevant, is that Kleck and Gertz asked about DGUs within the last year as well. In fact, they have more cases of that subsample than does Lott per Table 2 (scroll down). Kleck and Gertz don't break down the one year rate of a weapon being fired, but it is reported as being higher than in the 5 year reports. Of course, the sample size is small and has a larger maring of error than the 222 total (or 213 depending on which sample they are discussing). That MOE is still smaller than Lott's and it is from a far better constructed survey.
For a good discussion of the issues surrounding 1 or 5 year samples see Kleck and Gertz. Lott's complaint about the 5 year window is especially curious in this case given Kleck and Gertz explicitly cover the issue in detail and account for it.
As for the 2002 survey, a number of calls (form the surveyors end) were indeed randomly listened to by me. In all defensive gun uses, the surveyors were debriefed that night or the following morning about the call. All the respondents in these cases volunteered extensive details of what happened with the defensive gun use. None of the defensive gun uses recorded involved defensive uses by police. A couple of our surveyors had previous experience and I asked them to talk to the other surveyors before surveying began. As a result of call backs, over 50 percent of telephone numbers produced completed interviews.
In a pattern that is becoming all too apparent, Lott tries to equate a fly by the seat of your pants approach to doing his survey to having trained surveyors.
This speaks to Lott's poor understanding of surveys. Even individuals who do a lot of survey research generally rely upon survey experts to conduct and help construct the surveys. The relevant passages in Kleck and Gertz are:
The present survey is the first survey ever devoted to the subject of armed self-defense. It was carefully designed to correct all of the known correctable or avoidable flaws of previous surveys which critics have identified. We use the most anonymous possible national survey format, the anonymous random digit dialed telephone survey. We did not know the identities of those who were interviewed, and made this fact clear to the Rs. We interviewed a large nationally representative sample covering all adults, age eighteen and over, in the lower forty-eight states and living in households with telephones. [42] We asked DGU questions of all Rs in our sample, asking them separately about both their own DGU experiences and those of other members of their households. We used both a five year recall period and a one year recall period. We inquired about uses of both handguns and other types of guns, and excluded occupational uses of guns and uses against animals. Finally, we asked a long series of detailed questions designed to establish exactly what Rs did with their guns; for example, if they had confronted other humans, and how had each DGU connected to a specific crime or crimes.
We consulted with North America's most experienced experts on gun-related surveys, David Bordua, James Wright, and Gary Mauser, along with survey expert Seymour Sudman, in order to craft a state-of-the-art survey instrument designed specifically to establish the frequency and nature of DGUs. [43] A professional telephone polling firm, [Page 161] Research Network of Tallahassee, Florida, carried out the sampling and interviewing. Only the firm's most experienced interviewers, who are listed in the acknowledgements, were used on the project. Interviews were monitored at random by survey supervisors. All interviews in which an alleged DGU was reported by the R were validated by supervisors with call-backs, along with a 20% random sample of all other interviews. Of all eligible residential telephone numbers called where a person rather than an answering machine answered, 61% resulted in a completed interview. Interviewing was carried out from February through April of 1993.
The quality of sampling procedures was well above the level common in national surveys. Our sample was not only large and nationally representative, but it was also stratified by state. That is, forty-eight independent samples of residential telephone numbers were drawn, one from each of the lower forty- eight states, providing forty-eight independent, albeit often small, state samples. Given the nature of randomly generated samples of telephone numbers, there was no clustering of cases or multistage sampling as there is in the NCVS; [44] consequently, there was no inflation of sampling error due to such procedures. To gain a larger raw number of sample DGU cases, we oversampled in the south and west regions, where previous surveys have indicated gun ownership is higher. [45] We also oversampled within contacted households for males, who are more likely to own guns and to be victims of crimes in which victims might use guns defensively. [46] Data were later weighted to adjust for oversampling.
Each interview began with a few general "throat-clearing" questions about problems facing the R's community and crime. The interviewers then asked the following question: "Within the past five years, have you yourself or another member of your household used a gun, even if it was not fired, for self-protection or for the protection of property at home, work, or elsewhere? Please do not include military service, police work, or work as a security guard." Rs who answered "yes" were then asked: "Was this to protect against an animal or a person?" Rs who reported a DGU against a person were asked: "How many incidents involving defensive uses of guns against persons happened to members of your household in the past five years?" and "Did this incident [any of these incidents] happen in the past twelve [Page 162] months?" At this point, Rs were asked "Was it you who used a gun defensively, or did someone else in your household do this?"
All Rs reporting a DGU were asked a long, detailed series of questions establishing exactly what happened in the DGU incident. Rs who reported having experienced more than one DGU in the previous five years were asked about their most recent experience. When the original R was the one who had used a gun defensively, as was usually the case, interviewers obtained his or her firsthand account of the event. When the original R indicated that some other member of the household was the one who had the experience, interviewers made every effort to speak directly to the involved person, either speaking to that person immediately or obtaining times and dates to call back. Up to three call- backs were made to contact the DGU-involved person. We anticipated that it would sometimes prove impossible to make contact with these persons, so interviewers were instructed to always obtain a proxy account of the DGU from the original R, on the assumption that a proxy account would be better than none at all. It was rarely necessary to rely on these proxy accounts-- only six sample cases of DGUs were reported through proxies, out of a total of 222 sample cases.
While all Rs reporting a DGU were given the full interview, only a one-third random sample of Rs not reporting a DGU were interviewed. The rest were simply thanked for their help. This procedure helped keep interviewing costs down. In the end, there were 222 completed interviews with Rs reporting DGUs, another 1,610 Rs not reporting a DGU but going through the full interview by answering questions other than those pertaining to details of the DGUs. There were a total of 1,832 cases with the full interview. An additional 3,145 Rs answered only enough questions to establish that no one in their household had experienced a DGU against a human in the previous five years (unweighted totals). These procedures effectively undersampled for non-DGU Rs or, equivalently, oversampled for DGU-involved Rs. Data were also weighted to account for this oversampling.
Questions about the details of DGU incidents permitted us to establish whether a given DGU met all of the following qualifications for an incident to be treated as a genuine DGU: (1) the incident involved defensive action against a human rather than an animal, but not in connection with police, military, or security guard duties; (2) the incident involved actual contact with a person, rather than merely investigating suspicious circumstances, etc.; (3) the defender could state a specific crime which he thought was being committed at the time of the incident; (4) the gun was actually used in some way--at a minimum it had to be used as part of a threat against a person, either by [Page 163] verbally referring to the gun (e.g., "get away--I've got a gun") or by pointing it at an adversary. We made no effort to assess either the lawfulness or morality of the Rs' defensive actions.
An additional step was taken to minimize the possibility of DGU frequency being overstated. The senior author went through interview sheets on every one of the interviews in which a DGU was reported, looking for any indication that the incident might not be genuine. A case would be coded as questionable if even just one of four problems appeared: (1) it was not clear whether the R actually confronted any adversary he saw; (2) the R was a police officer, member of the military or a security guard, and thus might have been reporting, despite instructions, an incident which occurred as part of his occupational duties; (3) the interviewer did not properly record exactly what the R had done with the gun, so it was possible that he had not used it in any meaningful way; or (4) the R did not state or the interviewer did not record a specific crime that the R thought was being committed against him at the time of the incident. There were a total of twenty-six cases where at least one of these problematic indications was present. It should be emphasized that we do not know that these cases were not genuine DGUs; we only mean to indicate that we do not have as high a degree of confidence on the matter as with the rest of the cases designated as DGUs. Estimates using all of the DGU cases are labelled herein as "A" estimates, while the more conservative estimates based only on cases devoid of any problematic indications are labelled "B" estimates.
The question remains, what does John Lott think his survey is going to produce of value? Comparing the two methods of conducting a quality survey identifies how unconcerned Lott is with his research's accuracy.
archpundit 1/27/2003 7:22:09 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Talking Points Memo on base voters
Josh Marshall mentions the strange notion that the Democrats are the only ones highly dependent upon their base of support.
archpundit 1/27/2003 1:35:50 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Okay one more Lotta
So calls to all states were done in the second survey between 7 and 9 PM Eastern? That'll give some sampling experts facial ticks!
archpundit 1/27/2003 1:28:02 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
A final note for the night
Lindgren says that IRB is largely ignored by those at Chicago Law. That isn't too surprising I guess, but what is disturbing about Lott's case is he didn't take even rudimentary efforts to protect respondent privacy. Students conducting surveys in dorm rooms is generally a bad practice.
archpundit 1/27/2003 1:20:53 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Confusion
First, clearly I was confused on the categorizations of variables. His response makes it clear how one gets to 36. Mea Culpa. Second, he has released tax records, though it is impossible to garner any useful information from them as to whether a survey was conducted. Conveniently, as with any other direct evidence of the survey, all supporting documentation is gone.
It appears that I significantly overestimated the amount of time for each call as well. The reason for this? I assumed the survey was at least attempting to be of some quality. For some context, one should examine the methodology of Kleck and Gertz's (1995) survey found in Section C-1 of the paper.
So in the first case, Lott paid and accepted volunteer efforts by some undergraduates in performing a survey that:
1) was performed in dorm rooms
2) used untrained personnel
3) used mediocre sampling methods based on a commercial CD
4) had no Call-Backs for verification
5) had no effective supervision
6) had no questions regarding the context of the attack in relation to civilian versus police distinctions
7) had a question at the end whether the interviewer trusted the respondent with no objective guidelines
The list could go on...
Why was this survey ever done? It clearly couldn't improve upon work already done and published by Kleck and Gertz in 1995. There are reasons to attempt different surveys after the work was done by another researcher.
1) Situation has changed.
Not relevant in the two years since Kleck and Gertz.
2) Replicate the results
Given how primitive the survey instrument and methodology are Lott could have no real hope of replicating Kleck and Gertz.
3) Improve on the findings by using some sort of innovation.
Again, this would rely on the survey using an alternative to the original study that could leverage more information out of respondents. Lott's survey would not do that in any way.
So why do it? Good question. Not only did Lott use his own money, he wasted it to the tune of several thousand dollars. It would be impossible to account for the actual costs because:
a) Lott has no effective records of paying anyone. He paid some $8,000, but there isn't any supporting documentation
b) apparently accepted students as volunteers and employees
c) no one can locate a student who did the research
Even better, Lott decided to replicate the missing survey using AEI interns in the same slipshod manner except this time the calls were made at AEI. He says the results will be available in his upcoming book and the sample size is ~1000. Other than covering himself, this survey serves no purpose.
In his first survey the sample of DGUs was 25 meaning a margin of error of +/- 20 percent. Compared to the Kleck and Gertz survey where oversampling produced 222 DGUs this is assanine. Their margin of error would be +/- 6.7 percent within the DGUs.
In responding to me:
Between the two surveys 3,439 people have been interviewed. Can more
information be obtained? Sure, but given my personal resources and
that these surveys are such a trivial portion of my overall interests I have spent about as much time as I plan on spending on this issue.
Actually, without the first survey, around 1,000 people have been surveyed. Lott appears to think that his previous results are worth something because they reside in his memory. I would point out that without the data, he won't be able to use those results at all and given he doesn't even have the original instrument, one can't even tell if he was asking the same thing.
Ultimately, there is no point in this survey if he wishes to establish the rate of firearm use versus brandishing. Any claim to the contrary is statistical malpractice. Even more troubling, is that Lott is apparently disputing the results of well done surveys by others without even bothering to do a survey that might improve upon their results.
As Kieran Healy pointed out the other day, it seems quite clear one shouldn't be going around spouting a number when all of the underlying research is now gone. To make matters worse, the data is utterly meaningless in regards to the 98% matter so why would one repeat it?
If you take Lott at his word and the first survey was done, I'm not sure that really adds to his credibility. It might change the reason for one's conclusion that he isn't credible. In one case he would be a fraud, in the other he could be an absolute incompetent or just someone selling a bunch of malarky.
archpundit 1/27/2003 1:13:58 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Survey
Here is the survey and descriptive material John Lott passed along:
D. Survey on Defensive Gun Use
Below is the survey that was used to identify the rate of defensive gun
use.
Hello, my name is _______, and I am a student at ________ working on a
very brief survey on crime. The survey should take about one minute.
Could I please ask you a few questions?
1) During the last year, were you ever threatened with physical
violence or harmed by another person or were you present when someone else faced such a situation?
(Threats do not have to be spoken threats. Includes physically
menacing. Attacks include an assault, robbery or rape.)
a) Yes
b) No
c) Uncertain
d) Declined to answer
(Just ask people "YES" or "NO." If they answer "NO" or "Decline to
answer," go directly to demographic questions. If people are
"Uncertain" or say ³YES,² proceed with question 2.)
2) How many times did these threats of violence or crimes occur?
_____
3) Which of the following best describe how you responded to the
threat(s)or crime(s)? Pick one from the following list that best described your behavior or the person who you were with for each case faced.
a) behaved passively
b) used your fists
c) ran away
d) screamed or called for help
e) used a gun
f) used a knife
g) used mace
h) used a baseball bat or club
i) other
(Rotate these answers (a) through (h), place a number for 0 to whatever
for each option. Stop going through list if they volunteer answer(s) that account for the number of threats that they faced.)
4) This is only done if they respondent answers "e" (a gun) to question
3
If a gun was used, did you or the other person you were with:
a) brandish it
b) fire a warning shot
c) fire at the attacker
d) injure the attacker
e) kill the attacker
(Again, place a number for 0 to whatever number is appropriate for each
option. Rotate answers.)
5) Were you or the person you were with harmed by the attack(s)?
a) Yes
b) No
c) Refused to answer
(We obviously have the area code for location, write down sex from the
voice if possible, otherwise ask.)
Two demographic questions asked of all participants.
What is your race? black, white, Hispanic, Asian, Other.
What is your age by decade? 20s, 30s, 40s, so on.
Question for surveyor: Is there any reason for you to believe that
the person was not being honest with you?
a) Didn't believe respondent at all
b) Had some concerns
c) Had no serious concerns
Write up by James Knowles of the discussion of the survey:
We had a small army of interns and AEI staff making phone calls. The
callers for any given night varied according to who was available/willing to make phone calls. I was here every night supervising from my office at AEI. The survey was conducted over eight nights. Calls were made between 7pm and 9pm local time. (deleted material about workers that isn't relevant)
We used a phonebook program from a company called infoUSA the program
was called Select Phone Pro version 2.4. The program has a random function. First, we calculated how many numbers should be drawn from each state, we decided that we would pull 4,000 numbers (based on how much the
PhonePro program gives us for free). Then we took the populations of each state from the Census and assigned the quantity of numbers that we indended to get from the program. Then, in PhonePro, we picked a state, then sorted the state's list by area code, then randomly generated a number (using excel's analysis pack) as a starting point, then the Phone Pro program would export a number every so often from the list until it reached the desired number of listings exported from the state. This may be something that is easier explained in a conversation, my direct line is xxx.
archpundit 1/26/2003 11:53:18 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Response
Lott responds to the previous posts in e-mail. I'll post it in its entirety out of fairness and address the issues in later posts:
My responses:
I have already discussed these issues, but it is obvious that I need to
repeat what I have previously sent out.
I have previously posted the survey questions used (see below for
another copy). The 36 demographic categories for the 1997 survey were the exact same ones that I used in all the regressions in my book More Guns, Less Crime. The breakdown is by age (six age categories -- 10 to 19, 20 to 29,etc.), by sex, and by race (black, white, other). Information on where the person lived is immediately available because we have the person's area code and address from the telephone CD that we used. As to demographic questions, you will see that we asked two race and age. The student conducting the survey would fill in sex on their own unless there was a question.
"This adds another significant amount as even a simple database for
2400 respondents would take time to construct--especially with 36
categories."
This is simply incorrect. The demographic information is a product of
only four variables. First you merge the census demographic and population information with the survey file. Since the 36 demographic categories are afunction of only three answers to the survey, a simple set of "If, then" statements tell you in which of the 36 categories each respondent falls in.
That quickly gives you the share of that states population represented
by people who answered the survey in that demographic group, and you also
figure out that state/demographic group's share of the national
population.
"10 minutes a call (this is charitable)"
When you look at the survey you will see that it is very short. Well
over 90 percent of the people would answer no to the first question and then only have the two demographic questions to answer. In this case, the survey would only take about thirty seconds or so. Even for those who answered "yes" only a fraction would have to answer all the other questions.
Overall, only about one percent of those surveyed would be asked all
the questions in the survey and even then the entire survey would only take a couple of minutes.
The 2002 survey of over one thousand respondents was completed over
just eight nights. Students were often able to survey over 20 people per
hour.
As to deducting these costs on my income taxes, my 1997 tax form, which
I have shared with many others, shows that $8,750 was deducted for
research assistants (the heading was under "legal and professional services").
We do not keep the supporting documents past the three years required by the IRS and the $8,750 does include the expenses for other projects. On the other hand, I am sure that I did not keep track of all of my expenditures so the $8,750 is a sizeable underestimate of what I spent.
The survey telephone numbers were obtained from a CD directory for the
entire United States. The numbers were selected randomly so that all
states were represented in proportion to their population. (See attached
below for a very similar discussion relating to the 2002 survey.)
Between the two surveys 3,439 people have been interviewed. Can more
information be obtained? Sure, but given my personal resources and
that these surveys are such a trivial portion of my overall interests I have spent about as much time as I plan on spending on this issue.
Detailed information on the survey will be provided in my book that is
due out the end of March.
archpundit 1/26/2003 11:39:30 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
So did Lott do a survey?
I couldn't tell you and I'm wondering if Lott could. Ted Barlow puts the question to Jane Galt whether Lott has been vindicated.
There are severarl implausible items in Lott's defense. As I mentioned earlier, in my real life I've lost data to conference papers. That is a bit different than this case, but I'm willing to allow that Lott is the absent minded professor (well researcher) in the extreme. Academia attracts flakes and maybe he is uber flake (before keying on this issue, I consider myself at least a minor flake).
There seems to be several possibilities about what actually occurred.
1) Lott's story is largely true, but probably inaccurate at some points because of his absent mindedness.
This isn't particularly flattering to him because it demonstrates a large degree of sloppiness in conducting research and especially the IRB issues are troubling to me. I think this fits with other observations of his work such at the new article Kieran Healy cites that criticizes Lott and Mustard. I have made many of the same criticisms in a less detailed way of Lott's work (not on the blog sorry) and I find the work sloppy. Sloppy work is one thing, but Lott doesn't seem to have any sense of humility about his work.
2) Lott completely made up the survey instead of admitting a dumb mistake.
Possible, but it seems like this is a much bigger lie than he needed to make. I guess, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt barring specific evidence of the entire thing being a lie.
3) Lott did pay students to do a bunch of stuff, but kept such lax oversight of the project, the students made up a bunch of garbage and he bought it.
Again, not a flattering perspective of Lott's acumen as a researcher, but entirely possible. Some of Lott's comments regarding surveys indicate he doesn't really grasp the whole process and as such it might be easy to pull one over on him.
4) Lott is exagerating the survey and once he did it the first time, he kept on doing it. Yes this is lying, but the degree is separable from just not doing any of it.
Regardless of whether one of the above is true or some other option, the episode is telling of Lott's view of research and his committment to research design and methodology.
I guess what I find most troubling are reasonably intelligent gun rights advocates throwing in with Lott. Even if Lott is wrong, there is little evidence that Concealed Carry increases crime (at least well regulated concealed carry). This is pointed out in the article Kieran cites that takes Lott to task. If Lott demonstrated one thing clearly, concealed carry doesn't increase crime like Handgun Control, Inc. argues and that is important to know.
Even more troubling is the Kleck has done much better work. No work is perfect, but Kleck seems to have tried to do honest well designed research into DGUs and yet John Lott's numbers seem to be overly important in the discussion. There have been some issues taken with Kleck's work because he uses self-reported data, but that crticism is far different and far less troubling than the issues with Lott's work. If Kleck's estimates are problematic, it is due to problems of collecting quality data even with careful planning. Lott is careless in the most basic tasks of his efforts.
Finally, Lott's new book is coming out by Regnery? Oh come on....
archpundit 1/24/2003 3:19:46 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lott Category Question
Calpundit points out the demographic questions that Lott asks and I'm even more confused.
Lott claims there are 36 categories of demographics he uses to weight the respondents. The demographics collected include area code, gender, race and age by decade. And this is a real question--what are the 36 categories. I don't have the book handy so maybe this is bloody obvious and I'm just being obtuse. Assuming the demographics are brokend down area code would be one category (?), gender two, race-four, and age by decade 7 or 8. The math doesn't make any sense.
I don't understand how one can reconcile 36 categories to those questions. Either there are more categories or less. Or am I missing something? I could be missing something, but I don't know what.
This matters because he says that the 36 categories were used for weigting.
archpundit 1/24/2003 2:47:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Chicago Trib Round-up
Consider this a catch-all for interesting stuff:
Eric Zorn has been crusading on the Death Penalty along with the investigative journalists Mills and Armstrong. For those who watched CNN's coverage of Ryan's Commutation speech, Zorn was the guy standing next to Mills when they interviewed him. Zorn had a bemused look at his less well known colleague getting some national recognition. A few days ago Zorn followed up with Anthony Porter's original lawyer, Dan Sanders. Unfortunately, Sanders seems to have had a breakdown and is now living with his mother and playing scrabble. One can hope there is more to his story than what we see today.
In the same column, Zorn blast Mosley-Braun and gives warm thoughts to Obama in the Senate race. Dan Hynes has a ton of organization support and he'll be tough to beat, but it is hard to find anyone as exciting as Obama.
As Talk Left pointed out yesterday, Thomas Breen is working to clear two men he convicted and the Chicago Tribune gives him a at tribute today.
License for Bribes Fawell trial continues and Fawell is in trouble.
archpundit 1/24/2003 11:51:59 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Daley's Bold Move
Often someone as entrenched as Richard Daley would simply shrug off Chicago's high murder rate and keep on keep on winning elections. Much like his much praised effort to improve the Chicago Public Schools, he pushing for a significant change in the deployment of police in Chicago. As the Tribune points out this is a politically explosive move. Residents in safe neighborhoods take their police protection for granted and this is going to rankle many.
Bold leadership is required to continue the urban resurgence seen in our major cities. Daley, with all of his faults, is providing that leadership.
archpundit 1/24/2003 11:29:00 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Bill Hobbs and the Taxpayers Bill of Rights
In the interest of promoting discussion, let me point out Bill Hobbs site that is the center of the ongoing discussion concerning controlling spending and a Taxpayer Bill of Rights. He has some interesting stuff and points out that Colorado has managed its spending limits pretty well (IIRC they have a slight surplus this year?). The Devil is in the Details and I some of the ideas may well have some merit.
Then again, perhaps the problem with Missouri is the people.
archpundit 1/24/2003 10:53:18 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hale Details Emerge
The details concerning the alleged plot to kill a federal judge came out during Court yesterday.
While Hale clearly wanted the Judge killed, he was pretty cagey in the language so far. This does not appear to be an open and shut case.
archpundit 1/24/2003 10:45:18 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
SLPS, VICC sue Misery
Funny thing about legal agreements is that the other party expects you to uphold them. Yesterday, the SLPS and VICC sued the State of Misery for not living up to the obligations of the Desegregation Settlement.
Accounting tricks are nice, but they don't actually solve public policy problems. In this case there is an legal agreement that requires full funding and the state, after it winds it way up the legal system, will end up paying.
One of the arguments about the desegration suits in St. Louis is that they often saved the State of Missouri from itself--apparently those suits still are.
archpundit 1/24/2003 10:05:16 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Dog Ate My Survey
Kieran Healy responds to Kevin Drum's question regarding whether Lott's results could have happened.
Kieran is correct in that weighting could plausibly have created the results. If one weights the respondents, all sorts of oddities can arise in the total numbers and with only two firing a gun as a DGU, then wacky results aren't that unlikely. Of course, they are utterly useless. As I mentioned early the Margin of Error in sample of 25 DGU would be +/- 20% assuming the survey was flawless in every other way.
As Kieran points out, the chances of the survey being of any quality rapidly approach zero and it isn't even a good bet that the survey is close to representative given the half ass manner in which it was administered.
Kieran is far too nice when he discusses the issue of DGU's being a reasonable number. As mentioned below, the Margin of Error on such a sample would be +/- 20%. IOW, the results are utterly meaningless. Of course, that is even generous because that works on the assumption that the sample is representative. Given Lott's inability to answer basic questions about survey reliability and validity, that is highly unlikely.
Lott claims his new survey will solve the problems, but that assumes he oversamples DGU's. If he doesn't, his finding will be as pointless as the above.
What is really fascinating is how much information he claims to have collected. Here is a bit from Lambert's page:
6) weighting the sample
I did not weight the sample by household size but used the state level age,race, and sex data that I had used in the rest of my book. There where 36categories by state. Lindgren hypotheses why you can get such small weights for some people and I think that this fine of a breakdown easily explains it. I don¹t remember who answered what after all these years, but suppose someone who fired a gun was a elderly black in Utah or Vermont.
So he collected 36 demographic variables in his survey? Or are there 36 breakdowns of a smaller number of demographics collected? Either way this was a pretty involved survey that had to take a lot of time on the phone to collect all that data. Surveying isn't nearly as quick as it sounds and collecting that many distinct variables plus gun use information would entail significant amounts of time on the phone.
Using a professional center I'm guessing he would have looked at least $20,000. Even using cheaper labor (less reliable), this had to cost a lot of money. Gathering that much demographic data with untrained surveyors without the benefit of computer assisted surveying techniques would likely be 10 minutes a call (this is charitable). At 2400 respondents that is 400 hours of labor not including non-responders and no answers. At $7/hr this is $2800 alone, plus charitably the long distance of $1200 at $.05 a minute. So he paid $4,000 out of his own pocket?
Does he really think that anyone buys that he didn't at least deduct this expense from his taxes? The costs above are a bare minimum and the out of pocket costs would have been twice that just to obtain the sample, let alone code it and enter it. Of course, according to Lott,
Lindgren has the ³impression² that the students entered the data on sheets.I do not directly recall this part of our conversation, but I would have said that both were done.
This adds another significant amount as even a simple database for 2400 respondents would take time to construct--especially with 36 categories.
Of course, all of this should have been overseen by a competent researcher, which Lott appears not to be. The stunning thing is that if it is true Lott did all of this, he wasted a fair amount of money on a useless survey that lacked even rudimentary controls to ensure a sample of any quality.
It may be that Lott didn't just make up the number, but he might as well have. One can complain all they want about how this is only about one sentence. Strictly speaking it is, but it also shows an incredible lack of understanding about data collection and analysis. His other results aren't very impressive once one looks at the standard errors anyway. I am beginning to wonder if Lott uses these side issues to avoid discussing his actual results. By focusing on claims of fraud and providing just enough information to be plausible, no one ever gets around to questioning the actual theory and statistical results.
The IRB question is very interesting. Often, a survey center deals with IRB issues and so the researcher doesn't have to worry. In this case, I believe Lott should have filed a report. In fact, his careless control over data demonstrates a good reason for IRB. According to him, the results tied to specific individuals data were lying around dorm rooms. That isn't a professional or acceptable manner of ensuring repsondent confidentiality.
UPDATE: I just looked up the figures for some phone surveys done professionally and a 10 minute survey for 1200 people would run around $20000. Meaning that even with some economies of scale, Lott's survey (assuming 10 minutes was adequate) would come in above $30,000. Now one can claim that they can do it cheaper on the fly, but with basic costs I'll allow that to only be about half of a professional center's cost and that is at least $15,000.
archpundit 1/24/2003 12:45:50 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
G-Rod's Inagaural Contributors Revealed
Over at Crain's.
Nothing surprising, but it isn't pretty.
archpundit 1/23/2003 6:01:20 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Another Illinois Story
In addition to Dick Cunningham, there are many other good people in Illinois fighting the good fight, Talk Left discusses Thomas Breen, a former Chicago Prosecutor who is seeking the release of two men he convicted.
archpundit 1/23/2003 5:45:31 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Dick Cunningham: Attorney for the Damned
The day that George Ryan commuted the death sentences of all Illinois death row prisoners, Lawrence Marshall mentioned a man in his introductory remarks that few are familiar with. That man was Dick Cunningham, an attorney formerly in Illinois' State Appellate Defender's Office. Marshall said of Cunningham:
Where would we be today without the scores of committed death penalty lawyers who have labored so intensely to keep their clients alive?in body and in spirit--for this day to come? If only Dick Cunningham were here today to witness the fruits of his work on behalf of so many. For Dick, the practice of law was not simply a means to earn a living, but a way to satisfy his hunger for justice. When you hear your next lawyer joke, remind the cynics about who Dick Cunningham was, remind them about what Chick Hoffman has done, remind them about how Anna Ahronheim has represented her clients, remind them about what Tom Geraghty has taught all of us, about the impact of Andrea Lyon?s advocacy, about how Barry Scheck has changed the world, about what Tom Breen has sacrificed to do the right thing, about the incredible dedication of Locke Bowman, about the intensity of Flint Taylor, about the passion of Mike Metnick, about the humanity of Jeff Urdangen, about the power of Terry Mascherin, about the generosity of Kimball Anderson, or the perseverance of Mark Ter Moelen. These are just a few examples of hundreds I could mention.
Dick Cunningham devoted his life to defending convicted felons in the appellate process and played a significant role in bringing the public's attention to the great injustices that have occurred in the Illinois justice system. Dick Cunningham lived to see the day a moratorium was put into place, but was murdered in 2001 by his mentally ill son. The Tribune has done one of the most touching series I have ever read on Dick Cunningham.
In Illinois 17 people have been exonerated while 12 have been killed since the reinstatement of the death penalty in the 1970s. The 4 most recently exonerated were tortured to obtain confessions. False confessions. 33 others convicted on murder charges have been exonerated in that same period.
The Illinois Legislature refused to deal with the issue leading George Ryan to say:
The legislature couldn't reform it.
Lawmakers won't repeal it.
But I will not stand for it.
I must act.
And he did. I have deep reservations about that act because I fear it closes the window for repeal or substantive reform. But one thing is for sure, without Dick Cunningham and his colleagues, we never would have realized the extent of the problem. He cared about those most would like to forget and made their cause, his cause.
archpundit 1/23/2003 5:22:58 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Misery knows Hancock and you don't want it
Calpundit and South Knox Bubba are discussing state constitutional limits on spending. As always, the devil is in the details, but here in Misery, this has been pretty much a disaster. While it limits profligate spending, it also makes it really hard to deal with budget cycles. If Misery had been able to bank some of the excesses during the good years, we would have a reasonable rainy day fund to deal with the current downturn.
Most importantly, the Hancock Amendment here in Missouri, has limited effective investment in transportation and other infrastructure investments that have long term benefits. The St. Louis Business community is fed up with poor transporation infrastructure and Hancock is being rightly blamed.
Hancock defines limits as such:
he revenue limit shall be calculated for each fiscal year and shall be equal to the product of the ratio of total state revenues in fiscal year 1980-1981 divided by the personal income of Missouri in calendar year 1979 multiplied by the personal income of Missouri in either the calendar year prior to the calendar year in which appropriations for the fiscal year for which the calculation is being made, or the average of personal income of Missouri in the previous three calendar years, whichever is greater.
Perhaps there is a way to impose a limit and not deal with the problems Missouri has, but my experience is that the best way to deal with spending is through elections.
archpundit 1/23/2003 4:33:32 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Make Sure to visit USS CLueless on 2/2
He has the utmost confidence that hostilities will begin by the 1st.
I'm actually trying to get someone elso to go there so I can get the Readers' Digest version instead of having to wade through his prose and see how he explains being wrong.
archpundit 1/23/2003 4:02:23 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
New Blog Alert
A promising new blog came to my attention:
Center Point.
He has some parodies of James Taranto that are pretty good. It looks like he still has some work to do on converting his site from the template he took from Josh Marshall though.
Whenever the hell I get around to updating the blogroll, he'll be there.
archpundit 1/23/2003 3:04:28 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
New Blog Alert
A promising new blog came to my attention:
Center Point.
He has some parodies of James Taranto that are pretty good. It looks like he still has some work to do on converting his site from the template he took from Josh Marshall though.
archpundit 1/23/2003 3:03:48 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
That time of the week--Joyce Morrison, Jersey County Loon
The most recent Joyce Morrison tract is up and it lives up to her reputation.
Written to an anonymous Mr. Greenshoes it has one funny bit about hemp shoes, but otherwise descends into paranoia and rather bizarre stereotypes.
Other than amusement, this may seem pointless, but let me point out who she is affiliated with:
Joyce is an activist and serves as a member of the agricultural advisory board of U.S. Congressman John Shimkus (R-IL).
Also, she is part of a ministry with interesting supporters like Jo Ann Emerson and Jesse Helms.
Hemp activists generally don't get to sit on advisory boards of liberal candidates...for good reason. The same would be true for conservative Members of Congress and conservative loons in a sane world.
Some choice out-takes:
You will learn the truth about the UN?s Agenda 21, Biosphere reserves, Sustainable Development, Smart Growth, Wildlands Project, wetlands and wilderness areas, buffers, conservation easements, corridors, viewsheds, global governance and all other ways of control, control, control of the land.
Acronyms such as UNESCO, IUCN, USFWS, USDOT, NEPA, USDA,FSA, DNR, EPA and hundreds of others will be explained.
Don't forget about the snakes being airlifted into Missouri.
Are you the tree hugger who marches in protest about the timber being harvested and yet you live in a wooden house and brag about your hardwood floors, beautiful oak cabinets and exquisite wooden dining room suite?
Uh, huh.
Is that you who gets into your foreign built car and protests about our American made automobiles and complains about everyone else?s emissions while driving to your over-paid job?
Her she is completely confused. Hippie hemp activists generally are lucky if they have a job. Though, American cars do have higher emissions, but I doubt Joyce bothers with such details.
You are the first to protest drilling for oil in the Arctic (ANWR) because it is "pristine" but you love to heat your home and put fuel into your car(s). Don?t you realize it takes fuel to generate electricity?
Electricity has little to do with crude oil.
Do you protest against the chemicals used in agriculture while playing 18 holes on your favorite over-fertilized golf course?
I think it is safe to say hemp activists aren't playing golf when they claim to be.
And yet, you are fat and healthy on the cheapest, finest food in the world. While protesting against agriculture in the U.S., you are willing to eat food shipped in from foreign countries where you have no idea under what conditions the food was grown. In the U.S. there are regulations and controls to insure the food?s safety, but who regulates what the third world countries produce?
Just make sure the cheetos are kept around, huh?
archpundit 1/23/2003 2:33:08 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
DuPage Rebellion
The County Board in DuPage County changed its position regarding O'Hare Expansion and drew the wrath of Pate Philip. This is indicative of a lot of changes taking place in the DuPage GOP currently (and the subject of my next post on Political State Report), but it is interesting that the spat comes as Daley and Fitzgerald are about to meet on the issue.
archpundit 1/23/2003 1:36:03 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Dershowitz and Fitzgerald in the Tipsville
Michael Sneed captures a couple interesting tidbits today:
Dershowitz may file a brief on behalf of Betty Loren-Maltese to keep her original incarceration date.
Two, is too rich to paraphrase:
Rumor is Jerry Clarke, a former top aide to the beleaguered House Minority Leader Lee Daniels, is in line to run the re-election campaign of U.S. Sen. Peter Fitzgerald. So?
"Top GOPers are chuckling that Peter, who considers himself the icon of all that is honest, may hire someone who worked for Daniels, whose campaign practices are being probed by the feds."
archpundit 1/23/2003 1:24:24 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Uhhhh..Kevin, it is Bullshit
Kevin Drum tries to understand John Lott's weighting of responses in the 1997 survey. Kevin is not trusting his internal bullshit detectors--actually they may have malfunctioned from an overload. Overall, the survey is large enough to produce decent results, but one must remember that focusing on respondents within the sample reduces the sample size one is actually addressing.
In Lott's work that means if 25 people reported defensive gun use, 25 is your sample size. Given that, the margin of error is +/- 20%.
At that point there is no reason to weight because you don't have a sample size appropriate to make any reasonable conclusions. His new study will not have sufficient sample size of those using defensive gun use to make any reasonable conclusion either.
Lott is a hack. The only real problem with that is people listen to this particular hack. From what I've read of his stuff Gary Kleck is far more reliable and trustworthy in his research, but doesn't get the press coverage because he isn't a hack.
archpundit 1/23/2003 12:27:38 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Michigan Affirmative Action Case
The President opposing the Michigan plan reeks of obtuseness more than anything as Debra Pickett points out. Tom Spencer pointed out the column earlier, but I also read Pickett every week--a hell of a good columnist.
That said, I'm uncomfortable with the Michigan admission process. Actually I'm uncomfortable with almost all college admission processes, but that is a different story. I believe the 20 points is too much to give solely on race in comparison to other factors.
This doesn't apply to Shrub because it is pretty clear the only reason he got in was his connection as a legacy. 20 points wouldn't have done him much good and interestingly, Michigan has the Provost's Discretion factor that limits the impact of such admission to 20 points and 4 points for being a legacy. It is doubtful that 24 points, admittedly in a very different system, would have done it for Shrub.
Ending affirmative action is a cry from some on the right and most of the loudest opponents do a good job of distorting what affirmative action is. Simply put, affirmative action is taking means to enlarge the applicant pool and by doing so providing greater opportunity to individuals. It is not about diversity--or at least should not be. Diversity is a great goal, but it misrepresents what is at stake and if individual opportunity is furthered, so will be diversity. This is my first problem with the Michigan standards. They are written to achieve a goal of diversity when they should be written to promote individual opportunity.
It is true that affirmative action does result in non-formal quotas, but those are illegal except in specific cases of redressing past discrimination and any more the courts have largely stopped such efforts.
In the Michigan case, the standards are pretty clearly described:
The Selection Index has a maximum value of 150 points, with the final score for an applicant representing the cumulative attributes that the individual will bring to the incoming freshman class. Fully 2/3 of the points of the Selection Index are attributable to academics. When test scores are added to the academics, only 27% of the maximum possible points are derived from other factors that assist in enrolling students who will provide a mixture of attributes and characteristics valued by the University. It is our sincere belief that this mixture contributes to the education of our students, as well as fulfills the University?s mission to prepare society?s future citizens and leaders.
So the key factor to admission is academic performance. The hulabaloo trying to claim different is nonsense. In fact, 110 out of 150 points are on academic factors. To claim that race is more important than academics is false.
What is important to note is that the quality of high school is a significant factor as is strength of schedule. In some respects these are great tools. An A in basketweaving isn't an A in AP Physics. However, this has a significant impact on people applying from poorer districts whether they be urban and largely African-American or rural and white (or latino or African-American). Other than the magnet high schools in the City of Saint Louis, there are no significant AP courses and virtually no honors courses. By no fault of their own, a student coming from Roosevelt High School would be disadvantaged under the system Michigan has in place. At best, under the school and curriculum factors the student gets a zero compared to a student who went to a wealthier district and gets points for nothing but the District quality in which they live.
If we are to be committed to individual opportunity we first need to address the inequality at the primary and secondary levels, but it is perfectly reasonable to pull students up by giving them points for that disadvantage. If they have a poor record in a mediocre school, it won't matter. But, a student with an excellent record in a mediocre school would have a fighting chance.
How to correct for this is the question that has to be answered in order to promote individual opportunity. Race is one factor that Michigan has specified as being highly significant. Geographic underrepresentation in Michigan is another. In fact, a black kid from Travers City would get huge bonuses in the admission process.
Race is too important under this formulation. It isn't solely race that is the problem in providing individual opportunity. A white kid from the bootheel faces the same mediocre school and curriculum problems that a black kid from Roosevelt faces. Or within Roosevelt, the black kid and the Bosnian kid face the similar challenges. For this, the way to best address it is to rely more upon socio-economic disadvantage or school district socio-economic disadvantage as the opportunity enhancing factor. It is race neutral and it promotes opportunity. Race neutral should be a goal for any program since we treat race as a suspect classification under the law.
As far as diversity the white kid from the bootheel of Missouri adds to diversity as well.
All that being said, there is an extra barrier to achievement in being African-American. We see differential performance holding socio-economic factors between races constant that surely isn't a result due to the amount of melanin in their skin. What is the cause of this? Some sort of institutional racism that we might be working towards ridding ourselve of, but still exists. As such, a smaller number of points for underrepresented minorities combined with the economic disadvantage points would make good sense and fit with suspect classification under the law while still providing greater individual opportunity. In fact, such a process might improve diversity along class lines.
I don't know how a court could determine the difference between 5 and 20 points, but I don't find the category of race a problem as much as the number of points. For a court to come up with a decent test to distinguish this would be very difficult.
archpundit 1/23/2003 11:39:16 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Tim Noah's Meme Watch
is outstanding and a fantastic example of how internet journalism (real journalism) can work to check politicians.
archpundit 1/23/2003 10:29:51 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Atrios was there first
but you have to throw a bone to the puppy when he isn't being a caricature of himself.
"Gay Plague"?
But to see a caricature go here.
I guess one thing about Andy is that he isn't afraid to be a over the top consistently.
archpundit 1/23/2003 10:24:18 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Undeserved Attention
I have a big problem with the Danish Committee for Scientific Dishonesty, but not the problem most people have. Lomborg's book isn't science so why be concerned with it? I'm confused about how Cambridge had it peer reviewed actually--unless it was by someone not in the hard sciences. There is no scientific research in the book from what I've seen.
A good gig for you, if you can get it like Lomborg did.
archpundit 1/23/2003 10:13:53 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Chavez and the rule of law
Ummm...does anyone notice that Chavez is legally elected? He is a punk and he may try and stay on beyond his term which would be a problem. However, this bit of framing is disingenuous. The rule of law must be given strong weight in determining when elections take place. There are times when exceptions are reasonable and necessary. Maybe this is the time, but that isn't the argument being made. Instead the opponents of Chavez are attempting to frame the debate as Chavez being the impediment to the well workings of democracy when he is following the law.
The real problem seems to be what if he wins the next election? Do the opponents accept such a result or do they continue to subvert the process?
archpundit 1/23/2003 9:53:10 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
News at 11, Corporate Relocations aren't good Development
Stating the most bloody obvious conclusion, Good Jobs First points out that Illinois' economic development policy is bad policy.
Damn, goo goos, don't they understand it is great at filling political coffers?
archpundit 1/23/2003 12:52:22 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
License for Bribes Minute
Today's installment has our hapless defense lawyer asking about Juliano's work product. Apparently, someone found some actual work in his office! But Juliano explains that, alas, someone had given it to him as a cover.
I mean, wouldn't it just be easier to do the work than conspiring to make it look like you did actual state work?
From the other day:
But Stanley, a former Republican lawmaker from suburban Streamwood, was also hungry for state contracts, Juliano testified. Juliano said he walked into Fawell?s office one day and was told how Stanley had been lobbying for a contract to use mailings to publicize the state organ donor program.
``The Hog really wants that direct-mail contract ? he?s really bugging me about it,?? Juliano quoted Fawell as saying.
``When you say the Hog, Sir, who did he mean??? asked Assistant U.S. Attorney Patrick Collins, the top Operation Safe Road prosecutor.
Something has horribly gone wrong with your career if you are referred to as The Hog.
Something has gone horribly right with your career if you are a federal prosecutor who gets to ask this question:
``When you say the Hog, Sir, who did he mean??? asked Assistant U.S. Attorney Patrick Collins, the top Operation Safe Road prosecutor.
archpundit 1/23/2003 12:45:14 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
First Acts--Fire 'em
G-Rod got off to a good start by firing over 35 people from the Ryan administration including Scott Fawell and his mistress. However, we still have some rather problematic appointments that need to be taken care of including Bill Shaw. Can the Lege and G-Rod find a way to fire this guy?
archpundit 1/23/2003 12:36:22 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Abusing the right to a defense?
Jennifer Joyce, normally one of my favorite St. Louis politicians, comes up with a colossally stupid idea of penalizing those who request DNA tests, but fail them.
While it is cruel, the courts system must promote every option for a person to clear themselves. Penalizing them for taking that route creates a perverse incentive that should not exist.
archpundit 1/23/2003 12:13:55 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Coming up craps
Betty is directed to prison early since the judge intends to keep her from gambling the restitution money away. How humiliating. How fitting.
Mark Brown bothers to figure out the rate of wagering and I'm wondering why the judge is giving her two weeks.
archpundit 1/22/2003 11:58:02 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lotta Lotts
As far as academic gigs go, John Lott has made a good gig for himself by doing half-assed research that was hungrily devoured by those who wanted to agree with his results. While I'll put peer review over the law review process in most cases, Lott figured out that most reviewers in non-technical journals don't really know enough to knock down poor statistical choices and so he got his concealed carry stuff published as peer reviewed. As with any simple model of crime, the results suffer from pretty clear signs of multicollinearity and the model choice is half-assed if not quarter-assed. Saying the work was theoretically suspect is generous.
However, these aren't problems only found in Lott's work so I don't find it much to get worked up about. It is a bit disconcerting that half-assed work is used to promote policy, but that isn't really much new either. Charles Murray has made a far longer run at influencing policy with junk work and we can find all sorts of liberal examples as well.
For some reason the "the dog ate my survey" rang true to me. Probably because I'm an absent-minded moron and have lost or had data corrupted before two professional conferences and had to make the same claim. I actually feel bad for him because it is pretty damn embarrassing. Stupid, but embarrassing.
A real social scientist would be disturbed as Julian Sanchez points out, but Lott gets attention and plenty of air time.
But what we find out now is that Lott definitely has an on-line alter ego named Mary Rosh who has been actively defending and promoting John Lott's work for quite some time. I understand the idea of using anonymity and the issue of defending one's work that way makes sense.
More disturbing is the notion that Rosh was not just arguing the points, but actually telling stories about interactions with him and writing gushing book reviews for himself.
This seems a bit more serious. After all, if he owns guns, wouldn't having multiple personalities be a reason for confiscation?
You can't really complain when you set yourself up that badly...
archpundit 1/22/2003 11:50:35 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Remnants of the Metro South Citizen's Council
Interestingly, the Friends and Advocates of Neighborhood Schools slate from 1991 has an alumnus running for the 16th Ward Aldermanic seat as a Republican. Carol A. Wilson is running for the spot vacated by Jim Shrewsbury when he ascended to the President of the Board of Alderman.
I've been snoozing though. Carol Wilson is also a member of the St. Louis Board of Elections and appointed to it by the Bobster. So apparently white washing one's background is a bipartisan affair here in Misery. Timothy J. Wilson, her husband is also a Circuit Court Judge in the City of Saint Louis.
Who cares? Well, the Friends and Advocates slate, despite sounding like a Quaker slate, was a slate backed by Thomas Bugel, former head of the Metro South Citizens' Council, in 1991. The Metro South Citizens' Council was the local variant of the Council of Conservative Citizens. She had nice things to say about her former slate members as well. From Jo Mannies March 17, 1991 column she said:
'I'm proud of the people I'm running with.'
This must have included William J. Macke, cofounder of the Metro South Citizens' Council. It is unclear to me that even Macke's mother could be proud of him.
From January 20th:
Macke is one of the founders of the Metro South Citizens Council, a group that he describes as ''an interest group of white citizens.'' But Macke denies that it is racist, saying the South Side group simply represents ''property owners who are conservative.''
White property owners that is.
From the March 17th article:
slate. The Kids slate demanding that the treasurer of the Friends slate resign because he had made a $250 campaign contribution to David Duke of Louisiana. Duke is a former member of the Ku Klux Klan and American Nazi Party who now is running for governor. He ran a highly publicized campaign for the U.S. Senate last year. The Kids slate also took aim at a $1,000 contribution that the Friends slate got from a segregationist. Kids candidate Stewart said the Duke link and the segregationist's contribution demonstrated that the Friends slate was ''anti-black.''
Friends slate member Wilson and some of the board's anti-busing members accusing the Kids slate of being racist against whites. They pointed to endorsements the Kids slate got from Comptroller Virvus Jones and state Rep. Paula Carter, D-St. Louis. The Friends slate says Jones and Carter are ''black racists.'' Bugel alleges that Carter ran a racist primary campaign against Aldermanic President Thomas A. Villa, who is white. Bugel accusing Kids candidate Purdy of injecting ''gutter-level smear tactics into this campaign.''
Things not heard around here often, Bill Purdy had a hell of a backbone--too bad he couldn't use it to reform the bureaucracy.
Apparently she and her husband are fans of city living from this letter to the editor:
Once again the Post-Dispatch has confused its mission with that of the National Enquirer. The yellow journalism evident in the lurid "the city's sinking you better flee" front-page Sunday "news" story, accompanied by the article's supposed search for who is responsible, would be comedic if it weren't so tragic.
The Post-Dispatch used its journalistic freedom to construct a striking, large, front-page, color map, color photo story in its largest circulation day paper. You don't have to be a genius to understand the impact of a photo of a row of for-sale signs, a map with a colorful metastasizing cancer and a headline incorporating scare words like "bode ill," and "slide." The position of the story, the graphics and the headline diction were inflammatory. We are not asking the Post-Dispatch to sugarcoat the urban realities with Pollyanna puff pieces. But no rational purpose is served with bylines by Chicken Little. Tim and Carol Wilson St. Louis
Admirably, Francis Slay backed the Kids Slate in the '91 election even though his ward was considered a strong bastion of support for the Neigbhood slate. Will the supposedly liberal Post-Dispatch point out Wilson's checkered past? Or is it to polite to talk about ties to racists if it isn't Trent Lott?
archpundit 1/22/2003 11:22:54 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
busy
Slow today until later, the problem of free windbags...
archpundit 1/22/2003 9:14:21 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
More on Hynes
From a reliable anonymous contributor:
Among the most interesting parts of Neal's piece, I thought, was that he noted that Mellody Hobson was on Hynes' campaign committee. Now, Mellody Hobson is a long story about the deft use of marketing,
publicists, and connections, but suffice it to say that she is the quintessential young, establishment, African-American. Although she worked on Bill Bradley's campaign, since then, she does not look twice politically unless she knows exactly what the Mayor is doing. She is, also, a long-time friend of Barak Obama's and has contributed to him in the past, so her throwing in with Hynes shows how cautious she is being in not offending hizzoner.
The great thing about a blog is that it allows for a variety of people to pool knowledge quickly. Not currently living in Chicago, I miss a lot of nuance and this is a perfect case. So for those out there--keep the tips coming they are great. I've tried to get some of my friends to accept positions in Springfield, but lessening their salary by more than half to help out their friends hobby just didn't close the deal.
One question for some of you out there might by what is all this about Hobson marketing herself, just take a look at a google search. The first return is a Crain's profile that is pretty good.
I agree with the tipster, this bodes poorly for anyone else but Hynes. Obama will still likely do well with the rank and file African-American voters, but the connected young professional African-Americans are likely to be cautious in their support if the Mayor is on Hynes side actively. They are an important element in crossing the divide between races and while Obama himself is very effective from what I've seen with white crowds, that isn't necessarily enough.
Oh, and leftcoastjoshua--Jan isn't getting back in the race. Goo-Goos (of which I am one) don't do well against the machine and she is smart enough to see this.
archpundit 1/21/2003 9:46:23 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Rainesian Plot to question Bush's manhood reaches Senate
Here
"I am concerned about the size of the president's package at a time when we have pressing needs and are possibly on the verge of a second war with Iraq," one participant, Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, said.
archpundit 1/21/2003 8:35:36 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Cattle Call: Buy Hines
Cattle call missed last week, but hey, the Earth shook and it is back.
First, read Steve Neal's article that is essentially a love fest for Hynes.
The key paragraph is here:
The co-chairmen of his campaign include Cook County Commissioner John P. Daley, County Board President John H. Stroger, Mellody Hobson of Ariel Capital Management, Illinois Senate Majority Leader Vince Demuzio of Carlinville and Laborers' union official Ed Smith of Cairo.
Burying my head up my ass I was going on about how Daley has been selling Hull, but as was pointed out by a sharp eyed e-mailer, Daley isn't going to back someone against his old friend Thomas Hynes and the proof is above. John Daley is on board and while that doesn't absolutely guarantee Richard is going to follow, it is a pretty good bet. Additionally, Stroger has signed on to support Dan Hynes.
More important is Demuzio and Ed Smith. In a divided primary southern Illinois Labor matters a lot. Ask G-Rod and Dick Mell. Jerry Costello pulled out the corrupt Belleville machine and labor to pull off a narrow victory over Paul Vallas in the 2002 primary for Governor. With everyone being from Chicagoland, this might be the key. The open question I haven't seen answered yet is where is Jerry "unindicted co-conspirator" Costello in this race. Demuzio is a clue, but not a definitive one.
Costello is close to G-Rod and Mell (Chicago Alderman and G-Rod father-in-law) and Richard Devine. He was pushing Devine to run for Governor and offered his machine up. The Devines (Richard and sons) are close with G-Rod and Mell as well. Mell and G-Rod are potentially behind Blair Hull, the multi-millionaire running for Senate as well. Hull provided the plane for G-Rod to campaign on and was the biggest contributor. Where Costello ends up probably determines whether this race is a Hynes coronation or a three way race with Hynes-Hull-Obama.
How this breaks down in the City is the four big players are the Daleys, Mell/G-Rod, Thomas Hynes, and Madigan (Da Speaker). Emil Jones and the Jacksons I place separately because of the way Illinois politics works. My assumptions as of now is that Hynes, Madigan and Daleys back little Hynes. Mell/G-Rod back Hull minus a giant meltdown.
Amongst African-American players, Jackson has backed Obama and is making noises for him. The Jacksons carry a lot of weight around the state amongst African-Americans despite the significant distate for Sr. in civil rights circles. Emil Jones is growing as a power broker and, as noted last week, is a close friend of Thomas Hynes having represented the same district at one time. For Obama to make it a close race, he needs unified African-American support.
Chico has money. Unfortunately money doesn't beat money and organization.
Pappas is the wild card.
So the new Cattle Call is:
1) Dan Hynes
2) Hull
3) Obama
4) Pappas
5) Anyone
6) Chico
Obama is low because he hasn't proven himself. Hull falls with Costello. Pappas, who the hell knows. I still have the feeling someone will move her to a 2006 spot-perhaps Secretary of State. Chico has Daley and Guiterrez against him--are you kidding me?
My preferences:
1-2) Obama - Hynes
I like 'em both. Obama has the heart, Hynes has the head
3) Pappas--I think she is stronger versus Peter
4) Hull-- Fourth place isn't a slam.
5) Anyone
6) Chico-with Daley and Guiterrez sabotaging you--might as well call Chuck Percy out of retirement and convince him to run as a Democrat
archpundit 1/21/2003 12:10:23 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Donna Brazile is a genius
I can't believe this all broke while I was busy with work and family, but Donna Brazile has pulled one of the most magnificently astute moves in politics I have ever seen.
Brazile has been looking to marginalize Al Sharpton in the primaries by recruiting local African-American candidates to run against him in primaries. By doing so, he would be reduced to the side show he should be, kept off prime time convention time, and African-American voters would be offered truly outstanding African-American candidates within the Democratic Party. It is my view that most African-American voters think that Sharpton's views are too outlandish and he is morally suspect, but that in the absence of other strong black voices, they understand the appeal and even turn to him. It appears Donna Brazile agrees with me (ahem, I agree with Donna Brazile that is).
Additionally, Carol Moseley-Braun was looking at a Senate race in Illinois she couldn't win. She is an astute political operative, something this writer does not often give her credit for when discussing her weaknesses. She passed up a chance to take on Daley probably out of the reality that being the gnat smashed to ground created severe challenges in later electoral contests. I assume the same level of astuteness saw the challenge of going up against some of the most connected people in the Illinois Democratic Party and then facing a self-financed wealthy incumbent was too much of a hurdle with the baggage she carries.
So Brazile recruited her to run for President of the United States. One might view someone with a checkered political past to be a bad thing for the Democratic Party, but I do not. She is quite appealing on first encounter. She has a broad smile that is infectious, a smart wit, and a charming personality. She is also ethically challenged, but clearly, she isn't going to be the nominee. She also isn't Al Sharpton and putting her up in front of the convention isn't going to incite the same visceral reaction Sharpton does from non-black America.
It marginalizes Al Sharpton and tremendously improves the Democrats chance to take the Illinois Senate seat held by Fitzgerald. While there will be a good fight in in the Democratic Party, that fight is likely to look like a day at the beach compared to the Great Illinois Republican Civil War coming soon to a theater near you.
archpundit 1/20/2003 11:33:44 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Bobbleheads add one
In Chicago the Burt Natarus declared the council could save lots of costs by just hiring three people to tip the bobbleheads at the Aldermanic desks to agree with Daley. Given the Board of Alderman has 50 members and they make just under $100,000 a year, this would save a good, but not significant amount of money for the city. There was, of course, one sticking point. Helen Shiller of the 46th had the gall to actually vote against Daley from time to time.
Limousine liberal has a corrolary in Chicago called the Lakeshore Liberal and Schiller fits the bill. Really they aren't loony liberals as much as goo-goos (good government types) who think there ought to be someone watching the candy store and caring about the less fortunate. A tradition of proud independents have existed along the Lakeshore and around Hyde Park (U Chicago area) for many years, but over time Daley has either coopted them or beat them or waited for them to die so he could appoint their replacement. In recent years Schiller had been on many 49-1 votes upholding that tradition most exemplified by Dawn Clark Netsch in past years (and notably a close Daley friend and sometimes ally--ally and friend being different).
Today we learn, Schiller has crossed over to Richie's team. I'm a strong supporter of Richard M, being exiled to a city that doesn't work, I've come to appreciate the intense love he has for his city and how he has molded into a remarkable metropolis. That said, he shouldn't be left unchecked to threaten to take his pants down when questioned.
archpundit 1/20/2003 11:17:53 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Still slow
Busy till later this afternoon. Cool stuff coming up--
Moseley-Braun running for president and it isn't that wacky of an idea.
Dick Cunningham series redux
G-Rod fires bunches
Birkett's whine continues
Dick Mell votes for Chicago War Resolution (I think--gotta check on that)
Fawell Trial sheds light on the depth of corruption in Illinois politics
Hang in there with me and go to Ted Barlow's for some hilarious stuff--link at the left
archpundit 1/17/2003 9:09:43 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
I can't stop giggling
After reading that Carol Moseley-Braun might run for President of the United States.
Of course, we wouldn't be worried about Chinese donations to her campaign, just Nigerian. The upside is after being made a laughingstock she would be done in electoral politics.
That being said, Donna Brazile might just be on top of the most effective manner to isolate Sharpton. Let's face it, Sharpton won't win, but the key is to keep him from being able to secure a speaking slot at the convention.
archpundit 1/15/2003 4:03:08 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Slow Posting
Slammed--slow today through Friday. I'll still post, but not at the usual volume.
archpundit 1/15/2003 10:57:48 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
SUV Takedown
Gregg Easterbrook addresses the fallacies of safety surrounding SUVs. As usual, he is excellent.
archpundit 1/14/2003 6:18:16 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Black Helicopters are dropping snakes
My favorite loon at the asylum known as the Illinois Leader, is Joyce Morrison, who in a typically over-the-top routine on the evils of government regulating the environment drops this gem:
This would be Guam?s problem, except we may soon encounter a similar problem. There is an unsubstantiated report that a helicopter seen hovering over a wooded area in Missouri dropped two boxes. Supposedly, a curious hunter went over to find the boxes contained Eastern Massasaqua Rattlesnakes, which are endangered and cannot be killed.
Now, I know a few folks who go hunting around here and I can tell you that one doesn't generally trust what one claims to have seen through the upturned bottle of Schnaps on a cold day.
Added bonus to anyone who can find something resembling a thesis statement in the article!
archpundit 1/14/2003 2:54:14 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Leader returns to form
For a couple weeks the Illinois Leader was primarily publishing a bunch of puff pieces and not doing the usual hatchet jobs on the Illinois Democratic Party and the real object of their hatred--moderate Republicans. But have no fear, today the Church Lady is back and reporting on gossip that Bob Kjellander might be challenged by the ideologically pure.
The beginnning of the article is another attempt to identify social conservatives as adults. Ironic, huh?
archpundit 1/14/2003 2:46:51 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
When do you fire a press secretary?
Because I keep thinking it has to come soon. Getting heckled by the lapdogs is a pretty amazing feat even for evasive Ari.
archpundit 1/14/2003 2:01:31 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Dick Cunningham for the Nobel
My campaign to get a Nobel Peace Prize for a supporter of death penalty reform other than George Ryan has another possibility--Dick Cunningham. I've been trying to get to this story for several weeks now, but was reminded during the introduction to George Ryan's remarks on Saturday that the Tribune did an in depth series on Dick Cunningham's efforts to defend those on Death Row and end capital punishment.
It is remarkably touching.
archpundit 1/14/2003 1:38:10 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
License for Bribes Minute
Fawell loses his bid for a mistrial.
And as such jury selection was completed
In other courts related news, Matt Hale got a new judge. Apparently even federal judges take a dim view of their colleagues being targeted by domestic terrorism.
archpundit 1/14/2003 1:25:42 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
I didn't know where to start
so just go read Jim Henley's discussion of Reynolds' latest foolishness. BTW, folks, rights and liberties are accorded to individuals irrespective of their race or creed. Just in case some of you are forgetting.
archpundit 1/13/2003 6:39:16 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
pissing on legs
As I often like to mention, when one chooses to piss on someone's leg they need to be prepared to have his leg pissed back on. DeLay and Hastert would be well advised of this before pissing on the leg of a principled media darling moderate like Chris Shays. While I certainly wouldn't predict Shays to bolt, he can make life very uncomfortable for the Republicans if they choose to make his life difficult.
archpundit 1/13/2003 6:37:00 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
License for Bribes Minute
Yep, it's that time again. George is out of office and the indictments are being warmed up.
Steve Neal serves up a can of regurgitated scandal time-line in praise of Joe Power. Good article for those who haven't followed the investigation. It provides an excellent background on the entire case and Ryan's actions.
Strangely, George Ryan's son-in-law never had his DUI entered into the SOS computer system while Ryan was SOS.
Unhappy meals were served to 33 employees at McPier, many of whom were hired by Fawell.
Some ala carte chutzpah was served by Fawell who asked for a mistrial after the commutations
And an appetizer for the trials start is done by the Trib.
52 convictions and counting
archpundit 1/13/2003 6:26:29 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
I just can't bring myself
to discuss the idiocy of dynamic scoring.
I remember, back in the day when we liberals had to walk both ways up hill to school and back, when I had to sit there and beat my head against a wall to get other liberals to understand the importance of balanced budgets. For the most part it became accepted until Shrub.
And don't blather to me about how it will lead to balanced budgets. I prefer to live in reality.
archpundit 1/13/2003 6:13:33 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Someday?
Kevin Drum, in reference to Bush's rhetoric says:
See, the difference is that he actually meant it. But with the Bushies it's always just about playacting, and someday it's going to catch up to them.
Someday? I'm pretty sure that day should be when they have bungled the policy so badly, they have to start giving concessions just to calm the situation down.
archpundit 1/13/2003 6:08:51 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Smooth Operator
In case there were any doubts about the legislative wiliness of Emil Jones, the Daily Southtown puts our minds at ease. Jones has put through a rule that all amendments have to go through the rules committee. Jones has a less strong hold on the members than previous Senate Presidents so this appears to be his way of making sure he keeps control of the legislation.
archpundit 1/12/2003 10:57:04 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Illinois House Republicans Reform Caucus Functions
What got Lee Daniels into trouble is the combining of political and legislative leadership posts. Part of the early reforms under Tom Cross's leadership involves separating those functions.
From McQueary's column:
State Reps. Skip Saviano of Chicago, David Wirsing of Sycamore, Bill Mitchell of Forsyth and Carol Pankau of Roselle will handle the purse strings.
Saviano is an especially interesting choice. He has been known for his explosive temper under Lee Daniels and questionable ties. Fox-Henhouse problem.
McQueary also reports this nugget:
A puzzle
Why was former Sen. William Shaw huddled in a corner with one of his Nov. 5 opponents, Thornton Police Chief Phillip Arnold Jr., last week in Springfield?
They won't say. Neither could be reached Friday.
But isn't it fascinating that Shaw and Arnold met in a lonely Springfield tavern for more than an hour, apparently engaged in deep conversation? Arnold ? the same guy who likely pulled votes away from the winner, Rev. James Meeks.
What's that about strange bedfellows?
Perhaps Ryan had a position for Arnold too?
archpundit 1/12/2003 10:32:17 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Remembering Emmett Till
Emmett Till's mother passed away.
archpundit 1/12/2003 10:19:32 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hall of Fame boots Ryno
Steve Chapman takes on the greatest bi-partisan outrage in Illinois currently, Ryno being fumbled by the Hall of Fame.
archpundit 1/12/2003 4:15:55 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Is Ryan a hero?
No. Ryan is a crook who did the right thing in this case.
Talk Left had this to say:
Governor George Ryan is a courageous hero. Saving the life of an innocent man is far more profound an act of justice than any act of bribery or political misconduct in office can be considered an act of injustice. We don't care what happened with taxes and driver's licenses in Illinois. We care about saving the lives of these innocent and wrongfully convicted men.
But what about when that political misconduct is an attack on the integrity of the system itself? Ryan wasn't just corrupt, he has tried to subvert the legal system. To applaud him as a hero for attempting to fix the legal system while he is systematically abusing it to protect himself is strange to say the least.
Ryan could end the investigation now by coming clean on what happened and what he knew. He refuses to and refuses to accept any responsibility for the scandal. He took action today and should get credit for it. There is nothing heroic in the action though because there is no risk to him. Where he could take on risk to him, he has systematically avoided taking any responsibility. By refusing to obey the law, and using his office for personal political gain, at least nine people lost their lives. When he is on the line, he is not nearly as willing to take responsibility.
The level of cynicism it requires to treat him as a great hero is unhealthy for democracy. To pretend that a man who subverted the normal workings of democracy for personal gain and attempted to subvert the legal system's investigation has not done great damage to the people of the State of Illinois is misguided.
archpundit 1/12/2003 1:51:06 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Political Analysis of Commutations
Is on The Political State Report.
archpundit 1/12/2003 1:06:42 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
How to create defections
Via The Political Wire:
In the 1990s we saw the defection of many a conservative Democrats to the Republicans as the South finished realligning. There are a few left, but they will probably survive until retirement and then be replaced by Republicans.
The second part of that process started with Jim Jeffords. Slowly liberal/moderate Northeastern or Midwest Republicans will begin to change party affiliations or when they retire their seats will go Democratic. The challenge for any party is to slow those defections so they occur after they have little impact. A really bad way to stem that sort of thing is to deny moderates important chairmanships. Chris Shays seems like an unlikely defector, but this isn't a good strategy for the Republicans because it tells other moderates that if they stick to their guns, they won't get to be Chairs providing little incentive to stick it out.
At least if you are going to piss off the dissidents, do it like Clinton did to Shelby and have fun sticking a shiv in the guys back. Another example of this is Jim Saxton being denied the Chairmanship of House Resources.
archpundit 1/10/2003 2:03:44 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Matt Hale's living situation
Generally it is reported that Matt Hale lived at his father's home. This is apparently in err, because he recently moved out and lived with an unidentified woman in East Peoria. It is true that until very recently he lived in his father's home. Matt Hale is 31.
Does it strike anyone else as strange that a terrorist couldn't move out on his own until he was 30 years old?
"Hey Dad, I'm plotting the second Holocaust in the bedroom, what's for dinner?"
archpundit 1/10/2003 1:26:10 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Mass Commutation Decision Made
Ryan just announced in his DePaul speech that tonight overnight letters will go to victims' families and once those have been received, he will make his announcement on what that decision is tomorrow.
archpundit 1/10/2003 1:06:18 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Rita sworn in as legislator, next as defendant
I've been sort of disappointed as of late. Usually, Illinois is a treasure trove of bipartisan corruption. As of late, the Republicans have been getting all of the print and while I'm a loyal Democrat, that just isn't as fun. Robert Rita, who I thought I'd posted on before, has rectified this for today. Rita (D-Blue Island) has been indicted for beating his girlfriend.
This was known during the election. He is backed by Da Speaker (Madigan) and he knew about the incident. The Speaker refused to distance himself, reportedly because Rita could deliver a lot of votes in the Southwest burbs. The irony of this is Lisa Madigan ran on a platform strong on reducing domestic violence and rightfully criticized Birkett for some dubious deals in a domestic violence case in DuPage.
Democrats have long been stronger on domestic violence issues in the law, it is time to be stronger on it in the legislature. Da Speaker may not care about policy and ethics aren't at the forefront of his mind. He does care about votes though and the Democrats in Illinois need to let him know how they feel about Robert Rita.
archpundit 1/10/2003 12:34:20 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Bierma Story
For those who went to Nathan Bierma's story, today the Chicago Tribune does report the outcome
archpundit 1/10/2003 12:11:20 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Gary Dotson to be pardoned
Gary Dotson was the first wrongfully imprisoned individual to be cleared by DNA evidence. That was in 1989.
archpundit 1/10/2003 11:52:28 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
4 Pardons--all from the Burge torture era
One of the most horrific stories to come out of Chicago, really in the nation, in the early 1990s was that of Chicago Police Lt. John Burge. Burge worked out of the Austin district in Chicago. Austin has long been one of the most violent and poverty-stricken neighborhoods. It is based on the far west side of the city and borders the suburb of Oak Park. Anyone who has spent some time in Oak Park is familiar with Austin because a line of trees separates that neighborhood from Oak Park, a progressive, but wealthy suburb.
Austin is generally considered the front-line in the drug war and has paid a heavy price for it over the years. In 1993 Lt. Burge and several underlings were fired after the department determined he used excessive force. In this case, excessive force was a euphemism for systematic toture. Suffocation, Russian Roulette, electric shock and traditional beatings were some of the means of getting confessions under Burge. Ten people are on death row that went through Burge's period, these four are probably the clearest cases.
Burge was acquitted in one specific case back in 1993, however, since a federal judge has appointed a special prosecutor to investigate dozens of claims of torture. In several cases, the evidence disappeared--or more likely never existed given a confession was extracted.
Tomorrow, Ryan will announce what he will do in relation to the larger population of death row inmates.
archpundit 1/10/2003 11:48:28 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Be looking here tomorrow
I imagine I will watch a streaming netcast of George Ryan's dual speeches on death penalty reform. I'll update this blog in regards to whatever he announces. Of course, Talk Left may beat me to it.
Otherwise, have a good day, I'm signing off until tomorrow or something really interesting.
archpundit 1/09/2003 4:14:14 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Loren-Maltese Sentence
Betty Loren-Maltese just got 8 years and 1 month. Couldn't have happened to a nicer person. And unfortunately for her there are no slot machines in federal prison.
archpundit 1/09/2003 4:09:00 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Cornfield Commentary is back
David Hogberg of Cornfield Commentary is back. I hope he got some writing done. When I next do a site update he'll be back up in the daily reads. We have different views, but David is almost always has something smart to say.
Also, say hello to The Missouri Kid who has made an appearance in comments and is already annoyed at Steve Stoll. He'll be added soon as well.
Soon is a relative term given my schedule.
John Cole will be in the next batch as well. He is excitable today. Take a look.
Its affirmative action day for conservatives. Whadda you want?
Also, in the interest of promoting writers who get their stories killed take a look at Nathan Bierma's story on a wife's plot to murder her husband.
William Burton is back as well and has a lot on Bill Clinton's penise. Believe or not he is not a Republican. Mention Dutch Sheets to him.
While dog jokes are certainly old to Scoobie Davis he has sunk his teeth into a big bone(head)--Micheal Savage.
I'm sure Micheal Finley has some good stuff up, but it is too small to read.
The Pontificator points to Krugman's bemused response to some critics
Weblog Central links to St. Louis Bloggers
archpundit 1/09/2003 3:24:22 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Gloating
FromRoll Call
Top ranking Republican sources said Georgia Republican Party Chairman Ralph Reed might receive the backing of the White House should he decide to enter the race. Such a move would help to clear the field and prevent GOP infighting. Reed is close to Bush adviser Karl Rove, who is credited with helping define the field of candidates and winning strategies for many open Senate races in the 2002 election cycle.
I called it Kos's comments. Of course, it wasn't too hard to figure out.
If I lived in Georgia that would be a tough call--give the Dems a perfect guy to demonize for as long as he was there or vote my conscience.
archpundit 1/09/2003 2:14:21 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
William Lind Redux
I have a penchant for fruitcakes and William Lind has piqued my interest. So let's go back to this link from the other day and see who else shared the stage with Lind at the Third International Conference on Authentic History and the First Amendment put on by the Barnes Review.
Several of the speakers have generic sounding titles to their speeches, but I'm certain an enterprising individual with the time could listen in and find all sorts of wingnut nuggets of information in them. Some others telegraph ther intentions pretty well. All of the speeches are available in audio format.
--Russ Granata: Bunker 1" at Auschwitz: Gas Chamber or Farmhouse?
--Juergen Graf: Was Treblinka a "Death Camp?"
--George P. Morse: Nuremberg: The Inside Story
--D Fields: The Genocide of the Afrikaner People
--Michael McLaughlin: Postwar Allied Atrocities
Now, let's assume that an operative with ties to one of the big liberal foundations gave a speech to a bunch of Nazis who deny the holocaust and
treat the Allies as morally equivalent to Nazis. What would be the outcry? Paul Weyrich is no small fry and Lind is very close to him. Given the recent outcry about Lind why isn't Weyrich forced to distance himself or sent out to pasture?
archpundit 1/09/2003 2:08:22 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Other question about pull-out
is whether we need 37,000 troops on the DMZ. The alternative is that we could station troops in the area who could be rapidly deployed. In a strict sense this is simply a military question. I don't know if this would be effective, but kind of doubt it. The troops there now are designed to keep a foothold on the country so the North Koreans don't push the South Korean army into the sea and take away our chance to land troops in a non-occupied zone-much like Inchon in the first war.
If the South Koreans can handle their own defense this might be reasonable. I am skeptical, but on purely strategic grounds it could be true.
I'm struck though at what a colossally stupid idea this is to anyone who wants to be tough with the North Koreans. Oh, yeah, we'll show you how tough we are--we'll pull out!
Now that seems like a solution Chamberlain would have been proud of in his day. The confusion of those on the right about the difference between a legitimate democratic ally and some random banana republic we use is quite clear to me. An ally is an ally out of common interests. Often that ally can be there because we need a strategic ally such as the Saudis. Other times allies exist because of shared values and some strategic interest on the side. South Korea doesn't have to be a lackey of the US to be our strong ally. They are allowed to have their own opinions. Many Americans died ensuring they would have that right. A democratic and free South Korea is good for the US economically, militarily and morally. If Americans want to throw a temper tantrum about being respected they can, but it will be counterproductive. Our interest is in containing North Korea. That job gets a lot harder if South Korea isn't cooperating.
archpundit 1/09/2003 1:48:52 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Last I checked South Korea was an ally and a democracy
Reynolds hits the woe is the US key again.
The bizarre quote is:
I suspect that the reason why some South Korean politicians want to prop it up is that when it comes out just how bad things have been there, which looks to be Pol-Pot-bad -- and that they've known a lot more than they've let on while cozying up to and propping up the North -- they'll be seen as collaborators in horror. (And some, quite possibly, may turn out to be real collaborators, on the take from the North, and might be worried that that will come out).
What? Where did this claptrap come from? So now the South Korean politicians are collaborating? Based on what? If you are going to accuse South Korean politicians of collaborating, put up or shut up.
The post is set-up using a Cosby episode and Reynolds draws them together here:
We live in a world where most of our allies are Theo Huxtables: self-centered, unrealistic, and overconfident in their assorted schemes because they know Heathcliff will always bail them out in the end. But this isn't a situation comedy.
Correct, often life isn't like a sitcom. Often life for South Koreans in Seoul is living 37 miles from the DMZ and within range of North Korean artillery. Wait, strike that. Life is always like that in Seoul. Bush screwed the pooch on this one and the South Koreans have to live with the most direct consequences. Funny, but that would piss me off too. Expecting your allies to simply be happy about your screwups is a bit unrealistic.
Let's look down the decision tree here for some of our other allies if we pull out of South Korea. What does Japan do with a North Korean nuclear capability and an unsure American comittment to the region? Rearm? Bingo. What does China do if Japan rearms? Is a Cold War in Asia really what we want? Or a hot one if China decides Taiwan is more important with a Japanese military power?
What happens with the rest of the region? I don't want to find out. The little Theo Huxtable bit is cute, but simplistic and stupid. A funny thing about democracy is that sometimes the ideas you fight for don't win. That is okay, because the ends is the means in democracy. Respecting that diversity in long-time allies--an ally where the people are free, goes with the territory.
Reynolds' view of America as the benevolent and benign parent in this situation completely ignores what is in the interest of the United States as well as the unbelievable complexity of Asian security policy. We gain by having a presence in South Korea. Throwing a temper tantrum because South Koreans aren't respecting us properly is silly and counterproductive.
archpundit 1/09/2003 1:28:27 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Just how complicated is this Senate Race?
I'm forgetting about relationships right and left. I need an updated version of Boss where Royko introduces the family relationships in a parody of the Bible. Traditionally, Obama or Moseley-Braun would be the likely recipients of Emil Jones, new State Senate President, but in a twist, he has a 30 year relationship with Thomas Hynes.
archpundit 1/09/2003 11:43:54 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Sorry Joshua, but Schakowsky is out
Lynn Sweet reports that Schakowsky is not going to run for Fitzgerald's Senate seat in 2004.
I don't find this particularly surprising. She is far more influential in liberal circles outside of Illinois than in it. She is bright and smart, but also has no machine support and is primarily alligned with the Goo-Goo factions that produce such candidates as Dawn Clark-Netsch. If you don't know who DCN is, this is my point. If you do, you understand. Being alligned with the angels isn't that useful unless those are the ballot stuffing angels. Without significant organizational support she would have run into the buzz saws of the Democratic competing machines. To run that down:
Obama-Jackson and Jackson Jr
Hull--presumably G-Rod and Dick Mell and probably Guitierrez
Hynes--well, Hynes and probably Daley, though noise has been made that Daley may support Hull. Go down for an explanation of why this is unlikely
Moseley-Braun-independent, but significant African-American voting blocks...but see Obama
Chico--tried for Hispanics, now twisting in the wind.
Pappas--has own operation in Cook and wide ties.
archpundit 1/09/2003 11:33:07 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Next Scandal
It is always fun to be ahead of the curve and declare what the next big scandal will be. In Illinois it is a bit hard since the current scandal is going to take up so much air time, who knows if anything else will get attention. However, after 26 years in the Governor's office, the Republicans will be losing control of the Corrections Department and it stinks. A few days ago I mentioned the real problems and some conspiracy theories that you can take for what they are worth.
Carol Marin today points out the Corrections Department is in for a shake-up that is long overdue. It is pretty well understood that when that bureaucracy is opened up to some light, some very bad things will become known. If not overshadowed by the Ryan trial, we may finally finish the investigation into how Richard Speck could have had cocaine and female hormones--oh, and a video camera to boot.
archpundit 1/09/2003 11:06:47 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
80s Redux
The Chicago Tribune sounds my favorite alarm bell, Detroit is about to get its ass handed to it by foreign competitors on fuel-efficiency.
archpundit 1/09/2003 10:56:25 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Patrick Fitzgerald's other target
How effective is Patrick Fitzgerald in changing how business is done in Illinois Government? He not only is nailing terrorists, but he is keeping the clubby world of the Combine jumping. As I mentioned the other day, subpoenas have been issued to Ryan's staff keeping them from destroying documents.
The importance of this is Ryan has kept Fawell on the payroll and given his estranged wife a paid position in state government. Additionally, it appears Jim Ryan jumped into the investigation without knowing it. When he began to push the Governor on a couple of real estate deals, the feds check in with him to see what his intentions were. The Trib's Editorial page takes GRyan to task for his hypocrisy on the issue as well.
The good news is that on Monday, the taxpayers of Illinois will stop paying Scott Fawell's salary. G-Rod's spokesman said that may be the very first thing the new Governor will do.
archpundit 1/09/2003 10:45:36 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Ryan's sincerity
Continuing with the theme of moral complexity, Eric Zorn addresses whether George Ryan is sincere about death penalty reform. It has always been my position that Ryan is sincere about it. He is far more sincere than G-Rod and more than Jim Ryan was, though JRyan did seem to understand there was a problem. What George Ryan has done with the death penalty moratorium is wonderful. My constant carping on the man is due to his inability to apply those same moral principles to his other behavior. I can understand he has done a great thing at the same time understand he is responsible for undermining the public trust.
The Tribune also reports that he is leaning towards some sort of clemency before leaving office next week. Let me make it clear that I am an absolute opponent of the state taking a life outside of defending another's individual life. I think commutation would be the right thing to do in a vacuum. As life is often morally complex, I cannot support such a move now. If a mass commutation is made I believe death penalty reform in Illinois will die for a generation or more and as such a greater harm will come of such a move. While I hope we can continue to work towards abolition, mass commutation, in my opinion, will produce a backlash and destroy the good work already done.
archpundit 1/09/2003 10:09:15 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Hale-ing in Chicago
John Kass telepathically steals my line this morning when he says
As he spoke, I hoped he'd soon experience multicultural diversity up close and personal in the federal pen.
I had tried to make a line like that work and it kept coming out as some weird allusion to prison rape. Rape isn't funny so I didn't do it. Kass worked it out just fine. Hence, Kass is paid for his writing.
What is more interesting is that Kass was there. I think it is safe to assume Patrick Fitzgerald or someone in the US Attorney's office tipped him off. Kudos to them. While I am always suspicious of prosecutorial leaks to reporters, it is entirely fitting in this case where the reporter can relay the delusional mind of Hale and his supporters.
The news story includes Hale's background as a likely terrorist.
I've written about Hale before in the context of terrorism and the sniper shootings last fall. I still believe it is true that all too often many in the blogosphere try and tie every violent act to Islamist terrorism. My belief is that tendency is due to people not wanting to accept the inhumanity present in even some good 'ole average Americans. And that is what Hale is except for his raving hatred. He grew up on the border of working and middle class in the very respectable town of East Peoria. Other than being a huge crod and a racist, he wouldn't stand out a bit. Having grown up near there, I would hate to think all Central Illinoisans would be painted with same brush as he is just as I would hate for all Muslims to face the same stereotypes. While there are cultural problems in Islamic countries that drive violence, we are different in degree, not in nature.
archpundit 1/09/2003 9:55:45 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Matt Hale is arrested
Via Atrios:
The infamous Matt Hale has been arrested according to WEEK. My recent comments on Hale are below.
I bet he is wishing he was in Wyoming now, doesn't he?
For the World Church of the Creator's paricularly warped version of the dispute with Judge Lefkow visit their warped site. It is a harsh site, but I think of it like turning the light on cockroaches.
Hale will now be able to explain himself and his views in federal prison. I suppose this kills any chance at getting that law license, doesn't it?
He came up before as well.
Update: Here is the Trib Story which is more complete.
archpundit 1/08/2003 3:25:31 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Energy Policy and crackpots
PLA certainly aren't crackpots so don't get the wrong idea, but they take on crackpots over soy diesel. Since I commented twice in the comments section take a look there as well. I won't repeat it here unless there is more interest.
archpundit 1/08/2003 1:46:51 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Jim Saxton--no, the environment, screwed
Over at the Political State Report, an excellent note on Jim Saxton being given a chairmanship of the Armed Services subcommittee overseeing terrorism instead of House Resources. Saxton is strong on the environment, not perfect, but strong. The point of term limits for committee chairmanship is to open them up to new ideas--something the Resources Committee absolutely needs. The environment has been one of two major issues for Saxton over the years and he spends upwards of 40% of his time on such issues--but apparently ideological purity beat out actual reform.
Saxton would have been especially friendly to my pet cause and 'radical idea' that the users of federal land should pay market rates for the use of public lands instead of being subsidized. What a loopy idea.
archpundit 1/08/2003 1:12:13 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Lomborg's science
Funny, but the book isn't science so why should it have to abide by the scientific process? Lomborg wrote a piece of advocacy and did no original scientific research. It is a mystery to me why so many are taking him seriously. There are serious discussions to have about specific environmental challenges and the science behind them, but he doesn't add to those discussions in any substantive way. He does give right wing hacks something to scream about, but they would do that anyway.
Peter Raven sums it up well:
"The environment is a field where, when people do some light calculations like Lomborg did, it's easy to argue for a happy-times kind of conclusion," said Dr. Peter H. Raven, the director of the Missouri Botanical Garden and president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
But such findings should not be portrayed as science, he said, adding, "This is a just outcome that ought to bring his credibility to a halt except for those who desperately want to believe what he says."
He deserves little more attention than do creationists.
archpundit 1/08/2003 12:59:39 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Announced Candidates to Replace Gephardt
Steve Stoll's ratings by interest groups are available from Vote-Smart.
He is pro-life just as Gephardt was early in his career, pro-gun and mediocre on the environment. Typical Missouri conservative Democrat. Look for liberal challenges from moderately liberal Carnahan or Mae Scheve, Missouri Democratic Chairwoman. Carnahan has already expressed interest.
archpundit 1/08/2003 11:58:59 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
What have you done for me lately?
Not literally, given I'm melanin challenged, but you know.
During the Lott fiasco Republicans tried to argue that back in the 60s, they had done much for civil rights and they were correct. Today, George Schultz argues the same about school desegregation in the South. Republicans seem to think this is a way to address African-American voters and insist those voters just aren't paying attention.
Wrong. African-American voters might pay attention to the GOP, if the GOP paid attention to them. That means getting out in the neighborhoods and working to address the concerns of African-American voters. I know a couple GOP guys who do that in St. Louis, but it doesn't help if the candidates show up for one or two media events a year and then don't bother. If you want African-American votes you have to work for them in the pulpits and in the neighbhorhoods. Telling people you did good things years ago is nice, but not very effective.
archpundit 1/08/2003 11:34:50 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Radical Environmental Thought for the Day
Charge idiots who try and farm in arid regions market rates for water and let the market sort it out.
archpundit 1/08/2003 11:25:43 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Tilting at windmills
The Illinois Leader gives prominent space to one of the challengers to Daley. She even has a web site. She needs a web designer, however.
archpundit 1/08/2003 11:14:59 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
License for Bribes Minute
Several senior aides of George Ryan are being subpoenaed to ensure they don't destroy documents as they leave state government.
archpundit 1/08/2003 11:11:07 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The other corruption trials
Cicero is on the verge of having a chance to clean itself up for the first time since Capone took it over. While the breadth of organized crime is not anything like Capone's time, the Outfit has controlled the suburban Cicero for years. The US Attorney is finally doing a house cleaning and lots of folks are finding their way to prison. The citizens of Cicero still have to avoid electing the remnants, but this is a good start.
archpundit 1/08/2003 10:09:05 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Pate says goodbye
Philip officially retires from state government and it can only mean that the legislature will be a more humane place. Frank Watson may not be my ideal, but he isn't going to be a racist retread at least.
archpundit 1/08/2003 10:02:30 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The ICFST's Last Gasp
The State Journal-Register covers the last minute appointments by Ryan and discusses G-Rods potential respones. Ultimately, killing off patronage offices is counterproductive from a political point-of-view so don't expect action. Ultimately, this is a last minute push to get the last bit of patronage out of the system by the GOP. Losing nearly everything this time, they'll have few places to reward party members for a while.
archpundit 1/08/2003 10:00:34 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
What is Coming for the nation?
The same thing Shrub did for Texas. For those under the illusion that voters will wake-up, notice that Rick Perry is still Governor of Texas.
archpundit 1/08/2003 9:54:00 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The War of Highway Succession or Rural Agression if you will
End the Highway Wars? Hell no, this is just getting fun. Fleming makes it very clear the region is considering a separate taxing district.
Rural areas in most states are subsidized to a degree. Roads per person would simply be too much of a local burden when you have low population density. The difficulty here is that rural interests want low taxes and more than the usual subsidy. Welcome to the State of Misery.
The irony of the situation is that MODOT is trying to assuage rural interests upset over the 1992 plan, but may well alienate a larger block of voters in the states economic engine. Ultimately, MODOT needs a significant reorganization and a tax increase---but rural interests won't agree to that. Seccession with a separate regional road authority is the likely result. How you like dem bridges?
archpundit 1/08/2003 9:33:24 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
You call that a sit-in
There was a sit-in in Senator Byrd's office. Sort of.
archpundit 1/07/2003 4:46:35 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Signs and Portents
Playing hardball is often good politics. Peter Fitzgerald certainly enjoys the game and seems to truly believe that in every argument he is on the side of angels. Add that to strong grassroots support by social conservatives and he is the sort of person Shrub needs to cultivate. Conservatives hated Bush the Elder precisely because he didn't give his due to true believers. However, that sort of cultivation has to eventually be squared with Congressional Politics. Bush needs Denny Hastert more than he needs Peter Fitzgerald and Denny Hastert is no friend of Peter Fitzgerald.
A particularly telling story of the regard they hold Hastert in is the revealed in The Hill from last month. Hastert became very upset over the denial of a loan to United and the implication is this was the final straw for O'Neil.
How does this relate to Fitzgerald? O'Hare is the economic engine of Chicago and as such the state. Expanding O'Hare is one of the most important public works projects the state faces in the next several years. Peter Fitzgerald opposes O'Hare expansion because some of his base is from directly around the airport and they, understandably, want to see their communities remain intact. On the other hand, Hastert's base is a bit farther out and northwest of O'Hare and their primary concern is getting into O'Hare without fighting traffic. To address those concerns a new western entrance is planned. With that entrance, Hastert sees O'Hare expansion as a no-brainer.
The Governor and nearly every significant state official including the incoming ones have signed off on expansion so expansion would be on the way, except one person is holding it up. Peter Fitzgerald is promising to filibuster any attempt to expand O'Hare. This doesn't make Hastert happy because it doesn't make the corporate chieftans in the City of Chicago happy and the provide a whole bunch of money to the Republican Party.
Something has to give. Either O'Hare expansion goes forward and Fitzgerald is rolled, or O'Hare expansion is delayed and Hastert goes into a further pique. If that happens, the White House could easily be facing a fight between Hastert and Fitzgerald in the Senate Republican primary. Andrew McKenna has been making noises about running and a close ally of Hastert, Ray Lahood, has already suggested a primary opponent might be necessary. Anyone who thinks that the exceedingly level-headed LaHood dropped that bomb without tacit approval from this friend.
Which way does the White House do better? Neither really. The supporters in Illinois of Fitzgerald are true believers. Taking on their favored son isn't likely to do the White House well. Getting Hastert mad and having a divisive primary battle that highlights the split between the social and fiscal conservatives doesn't do the White House a lot of good either. In fact, if the fiscal conservatives are successful, the social conservatives could simply sit out the next election which is exactly what Rove is trying to avoid.
archpundit 1/07/2003 3:13:13 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The adults are back in Charge
Given better work has already been done, read Paul Krugman on the non-stimulus package and Josh Marshall on the pecular incompetence displayed regarding North Korea.
archpundit 1/07/2003 12:52:34 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Definition of Brazen:
George Ryan appointing Bill Shaw and numerous others to sweetheart positions to fatten their pensions. Shaw is particularly disturbing given his attempts to put a stalking horse candidate on the ballot versus Jackson Jr.
Another brazen appointment that has not graced this page yet is:
- Joan Mitnick Fawell, the estranged wife of Ryan's former chief of staff Scott Fawell, was given a four-year term at the Illinois Financial Institutions Department at an annual salary of almost $84,000. Her husband has been indicted on fraud charges in the federal Operation Safe Road investigation of the secretary of state's office when Ryan ran it.
Brazen. The wholesale looting of the state treasury will come to an end someday, but not soon enough.
archpundit 1/07/2003 12:47:07 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Fawell Trial Watch
I'm sure there will be plenty of amusing tidbits coming out of the Fawell trial, so today I'll start the Fawell trial watch. For the most part it will be links to relevant stories from various news sources. Other times, I may have some commentary.
Today's installment begins with Mark Brown's column discussing the sordid background of Alan Drazek, a key witness against Fawell, and recipient of prosecutorial leniency for his testimony. There is also a straight news story available.
Fawell's defense strategy has to be making GRyan nervous since it seems aimed at blaming Ryan.
archpundit 1/07/2003 12:40:20 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Drop me a note
One of the advantages of blogging is that people get to interact with the writer and actually influence their views. I value that interaction so if you think I wrote something either kinda dumb or just absolutely stupid, drop me a line. If you convince me, I'll write about. If you don't, but you make a reasonable case, I'll write about it. While I'm sure other Illinois politics blogs will evolve over time, I'd like this to be a site that provides good insider information for Illinois Politics. To do that I need to hear from those with interesting tidbits.
One quick thing--make sure if you don't want me to publish something you let me know about or if you just want to be anonymous--say it in your note.
archpundit 1/07/2003 12:11:12 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
No one agrees with--just ignore me
Rich Miller reports that Obama is picking up steam.
OBAMA PICKS UP STEAM Former US Senator Carol Moseley-Braun may make another run for her old job, but state Sen. Barack Obama (D-Chicago) is picking up some crucial support for the Democratic primary.
Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr. has signed on to Obama's exploratory committee for a 2004 race against US Sen. Peter Fitzgerald. . . .
. . . [S]ome of Obama's supporters believe that if he can lock up enough support early, then Carol Mosley-Braun might be convinced to stay out of the race - or forced out later this year if she has trouble raising money and finding support.
Don't dismiss Obama. Yes, he has a strange, even Arabic-sounding name (it doesn't take a genius to realize that Obama sounds a lot like Osama) at a time when that attribute is far from ideal (if it ever was), but the Harvard Law School grad is raising money and attracting lots of young activists to his campaign.
Obama is the guy I hope I'm wrong about. I think he'd have a tough fight against Fitzgerald, but he is smart and solid. The Jackson tidbit is important because it starts to chip away at Moseley-Braun in the African-American community and provides a machine operation for GOTV on primary day. He is also getting money which is good to hear. If he can force out Moseley-Braun he moves into a very strong position with probably 25% of the vote. And kicking her to the curbside is the best thing for the Illinois Democratic Party.
archpundit 1/07/2003 12:02:35 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Update on Senate Race
Running a vanity web site is ultimately a bit about ego and nothing is more humbling than when smart people smack you down--even if they do it nicely. A particularly smart reader wrote in with this to say several things.
First, he points out that Hull is very close to G-Rod and was the single biggest contributor to the campaign and provided the plane to fly around the state. The assumption being that Mell/G-Rod already have him in mind as their guy. Good point and correct.
The second point is that Daley is being coy about Hull. After all, Thomas Hynes, Dan Hynes father, has been very loyal to the Mayor and Hynes probably expects support for Dan, if he runs. This is also an excellent point. I don't dispute this, but Daley has differing levels of support so it is always hard to figure what he actually wants. I think the reader's analysis is probably better than my analysis though and Daley will publicly back Hynes assuming he gets in the race and the CW is that Hynes will.
I'll quote the third point which addresses an egregious error on my part:
you can't be serious about Gutierrez
and Chico? Gutierrez will never, ever, forgive Chico for backing Marty
Castro in the 4th's primary in '02. I know from impeccable sources that
Chico's aides have been desperately trying to arrange a "sit down," and
Gutierrez is not biting, and won't. What is more, as I noted above,
Gutierrez has become one of Blago and Hull's closest pals. There is
already talk that Gutierrez is considering the same kind of suppport for
Hull that he gave Blago -- which, according to Neal, clinched Blago's
primary win. But whatever Gutierrez does, it will not include supporting
in any way Chico.
My bad. I forgot about Chico and Castro. Duh.
Thanks to the reader. All good points.
Sometime later in the week, I'll start updating the contenders similar to how Daily Kos does for Presidential Candidates. The one clear implication from the above is that Chico is going to lose if he runs (and he says he is). Without the Hispanic vote (and Gutierrez will be the key to much of that) he has little chance. He doesn't have Daley's support and won't. He doesn't have THynes support and he won't get Madigan's support. His business connections might be slightly helpful, but with Hull, Hynes and possibly Pappas in the race, forget about it.
Where does that leave us:
1) Mosely-Braun: With 25% of the vote locked up she has to be the front runner
2) Hynes: Connections, connections, connections
3) Hull: (really interchangeable with Hynes): Money, connections, money
4) Pappas: Strategic and wily
5) Obama: Not much there if Moseley-Braun is in the race
6) Chico: When will he get squeezed out
7) Schakowsky: No room especially if Pappas enters the race
I haven't made up my mind about who I like the most which is rare even this early. For now:
1) Hynes--wins in November, smart guy, could be a bit more experienced
2) Hull--wins in November, slight downgrade for not having been elected previously
3) Obama--he has my heart, but not my expectation of being able to win over Fitzgerald easily
4) Pappas--smart and can win--good reformer
5) Chico--not much good, not much bad
6) Schakowsky--too liberal in November, not that impressive strategically
7) Moseley-Braun--everything I hate about the Republican Party
Republicans
1)Fitzgerald: Got the Wingnut ground operation behind him
2)McKenna: won't inspire anyone besides combine folks
Prefer:
1) Fitzgerald--he is beatable and if he does pull off a victory at least the US Attorneys will be agressive
2) McKenna--so is he, but not as easily in the burbs
archpundit 1/07/2003 11:57:17 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Political State Report
My first article is up. Probably nothing new for regular readers, but take a look around the site.
archpundit 1/07/2003 12:36:09 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
John Lewis is an American Hero
PLA is always a good read, but today Dwight has an especially poignant post concerning the Freedom Riders. John Lewis is an American Hero.
archpundit 1/06/2003 11:08:11 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
John Danforth is going to be pissed...
The real problem isn't the hanging with Nazis...it is being absolutely batty...
She was not a particularly bad bishop. She was, in fact, quite typical of Episcopal bishops of the first quarter of the 21st century: agnostic, compulsively political and radical and given to placing a small idol of Isis on the alter when she said the Communion service. By 2037, when she was tried for heresy, convicted and burned, she had outlived her era. By that time only a handful of Episcopalians still recognized female clergy, and it would have been easy enough to let the old fool rant our her final years in obscurity. But we are a people who do our duty.
(I live about 4 blocks from the church where Danforth is Associate Pastor so this seemed especially disturbing and funny at the same time.
Atrios links to Lind's, ummm, story concerning some sort of dark futuristic d-rate Handmaid's Tale universe--but Lind seems to think this is a good thing.
one of the choicer quotes:
The Deep Greeners took over Oregon, and North Americans got their first taste of totalitarianism. If you weren?t one of them, you didn?t get a Breathing License and they tied a plastic gad over your head. That lasted three years until the rest of the state recaptured Portland with Japanese help (they needed the timber). Both Portland and Washington are doing okay now; recently they got the right of send non-voting delegates to the Diet in Tokyo.
The real money paragraph is right here:
It?s funny how clearly the American century is marked: 1865 to 1965. The first Civil War made us one nation. After 1965 and another war, we disunited ? deconstructed ? with equal sped into blacks, whites, Hispanics, womyn, gays, victims, oppressors, left-handed albinos, you name it. In three decades we covered the distance that had taken Rome three centuries. As recently as the early 1960s ? God, it?s hard to believe ? America was still the greatest nation on earth, the most powerful, the most productive, the freest, a place of safe homes, dutiful children in good schools, strong families and a hot lunch for orphans.
So I wonder what was special about that year to Lind? Actually, I don't wonder. Oh, Trent, your guest is ready...
archpundit 1/06/2003 10:25:14 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Slower Traffice Stay to the Right
From the Capitol Fax:
* Representative-elect John Millner (R-Carol Stream) hasn't even been sworn in yet, but he's already receiving national publicity. Millner told the Daily Herald newspaper that he wants to spend some time this spring focusing on the problem of slow drivers in the fast lane. The State Journal-Register mentioned the item yesterday, and the Reno (Nevada) Gazette-Journal followed up with a favorable story in this morning's edition.
As far as aspirations go, this is a pretty good one for a Freshman legislator in the Illinois lege. It probably occurred to him on the first trip back and forth, but will quickly wane once he figures he can take the state plane right to O'Hare. He'll probably be on the right in terms of big thinkers in Sprinfield as well.
archpundit 1/06/2003 5:51:38 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Steve Neal Twice!
Steve Neal breaks down the suburban Cook vote and it is pretty interesting. G-Rod and Madigan both won the suburbs, but lost a majority of townships. By winning the southwestern ones big, they took the County by decent margins. The northwestern areas such as Palatine went Republican, but by relatively small margins. Frankly, the Republicans can have Palatine as long as I never have to return there.
In context of the Emerging Democratic Majority, these results fit pretty well. Evanston-an ideopolis if ever there was one went heavily Democratic and the southwestern Cook areas did as well. Those southwestern are less white than the rest of the burbs. Most interesting is that the northwestern county is damn near competitive-something new.The city was solid except for 41. Madigan faced a bit less support on the Gold Coast and in the other northwestern wards, but still had a commanding win in the city.
In DuPage, J-Ry and Birkett took 2/3 of the vote, but didn't rack up huge margins in the other collar counties as they should have been able to do. Even worse, it is unlikely for the Republicans to have two DuPage countians on the ticket from here on out, making the future races even more difficult. While DuPage isn't going to be voting Democratic anytime soon, the trend there is towards competitiveness.
Finally, in the "he is a smarter pundit than I am" category, Neal addressed Maria Pappas' run for Senate and is far more positive than I was. Read it and then ignore everything I said.
I'm still not sure how well she can do against Moseley-Braun unless Daley, Madigan, Hynes (the elder), or G-Rod/Mell get behind her. Only Daley is firmly committed from what we hear so she still has a shot at two of them with Hynes obviously pulling for his son if he gets in to the race. My sense is Hynes will pull Madigan with him and G-Rod/Mell will choose between Daley's choice-Blair, or Hynes.
Even despite that, Pappas isn't as weak as I quickly dismissed her the other day. With Moseley-Braun's record of sleaziness, female voters will be looking for someone to support. If she can attract some union support (more independent on endorsements in the primary than you would guess) she'd be in a position to do okay. However, with the match-ups coming she is going to have a hard time to get a plurality. 25% of the vote is locked up by Moseley-Braun with African-Americans. Obama might pull up to a 1/5 of that, but then Moseley-Braun starts out at 20%. Hynes has 20% locked up simply by connections and Blair probably 20% assuming no major blunders. Chico gets a baseline of 15-20% with Latino voters. That doesn't leave a lot unless she can cut a deal, or break into someone's votes. She may be able to pull votes from Chico and Hull the easiest.
Given the cluttered field it is hard to say what will occur. However, for Moseley-Braun not to be the frontrunner, Obama has to stay in. If he doesn't the race becomes much harder for everyone else.
Then again, Moseley-Braun will probably have a campaign finance scandal that might tank her support.
archpundit 1/06/2003 5:34:52 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
CofCC hijinks
Joe Conason points to the nefarious past of one William Lind . Apparently, Lind has a videotape concerning a conspiracy of something or another a marxist plot to invent political correctness. I'd follow the logic, but, well, there isn't any. Guess who is selling it? The Conservative Citizen's Foundation AKA the 501(c)3 foundation of the Council of Conservative Citizens. The Southern Poverty Law Center might note that the CofCC is still selling the bootlegged videotape and even have it on their front page.
Strangely enough, I had read some of Lind's work before because he and Weyrich are big fans of mass transporation. We'll have to assume they want segregated street cars.
Now does Weyrich know about this clown's full range of ideas?
It would be hard for Weyrich to not know given he has written about it himself.
Of course there is this Barnes Review piece about it as well. Or listen in here.
archpundit 1/06/2003 3:03:48 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
For your Reading pleasure while I'm inconsistently posting
Busy week, so the site will be updated somewhat inconsistently. For a couple good articles Talk Left hits a couple Illinois issues well. First, she reports the story that G-Ry was secretly recorded by the Feds. This isn't so much a surprise as much as an indication to how close they are to him now.
Second, my New Yorker is sitting unread, but Scott Turow has a significant piece on death penalty reform. As a member of the reform commission his insights should be interesting.
archpundit 1/06/2003 10:24:24 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
A tribute to Paul Wellstone
When Paul Wellstone died, one of his causes has been put by the wayside. This cause wasn't one of his greatest causes by any means, but it was a very practical issue for college athletics.
As Title IX has been enforced, many schools have dropped sports to keep the opportunities for men and women roughly equal. In theory, keeping equal numbers shouldn't be hard, except if one sport is only played by one gender and utilizes a large number of athletes compared to others. Of course, football fits both of those categories. Quite often, the less well informed whiners complain that men are losing out because of women's more equal participation in sports. This is not really true though, since football is the primary problem. Football eats up scholarships and resources at amazing rates and except with a few exceptions from the very best programs, doesn't make money.
It creates problems under Title IX because it is overwhelmingly male and thus with it in the mix, to make women's opportunities equal, one must cut a bunch of 'secondary' sports. Most often hit are sports like wrestling that have few fans (at least outside of Oklahoma and Iowa) and are male only. Sometimes women sports are hit as well, but I assume this is a budgetary issue.
Wellstone was a college wrestler as was Jim Leach. As a piss poor high school wrestler I found this issue fascinating. Leach and Wellstone put a package together to help support specific sports that were facing the most pressure including wrestling and gymnastics. Here is a press realease about the initiatives.
Why now? Today the P-D reports on some of the movement to weaken Title IX. The strange thing is that none of the reforms work to provide more athletic opportunities for college students as any reform should. Wellstone-Leach would.
College athletics should be about providing for athletic opportunities for the most students, not for the most fans.
archpundit 1/05/2003 4:57:58 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
New Chick Track
Before Scoobie gets to it, I thought I'd point out the new Chick Tract.
And don't worry if you aren't familiar with Chick, he hates pretty much everyone who isn't his particular version of fundie madness. He claims the opposite.
archpundit 1/03/2003 6:07:31 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Political State Report
Unveiling the Political State Report. Kos from The Daily Kos has the project up and running pretty damn amazingly. Yours truly is so far the only correspondent covering Illinois so if there are any Republicans or independents or just others out there (besides those stalking horses in the Harold Washington Party), drop a note to Kos and start contributing. I'm working on my first entry which will probably get posted over the weekend. Subject: Indictment Season in Illinois.
The site is quite ambitious. Kos is trying to gather bloggers on state politics from every state in the union. From those correspondents, articles on the political machinations of the state will be written hopefully with more context than typical national reporters are capable of delivering.
For my other beloved states, the ever capableThomas Spencer will be covering Missouri as will newcomers to me, David Barnes and Adam Case. Adam already has a good article up on the shift to a Republican Legislature and potential candidates for Governor. Tom discusses five counties suing the state for revenue decreases.
Iowa is uncovered--come on someone out there has to be able to talk about Iowa politics. I'm sure David Hogberg can be drafted upon his return, but what about the rest of you out there. With the caucus season starting this should be essential material.
For a fuller description, MyDD posted this:
Political State Report
Daily Kos has created a website, Political State Report, which has the bodacious potential to become not only a top-tier political website, but one that surpasses anything yet done on the web that deals with political campaigns and elections.
I wish to encourage many of the long-term posters here to e-mail Kos and join up to submit entries on the blog. Kos explains the conception, with which I concur:
Over at my weblog, I quickly found that the best insight this past election cycle came from locals sharing first-hand information on developments in their backyards. Sure, the information was often colored by partisan biases, but even that was better than the "unbiased" tripe spewed by the national media. So, the Political State Report was conceptually born.
When Kos first mentioned this a couple of months ago, I urged him on. The only caveat was that it would be one heck of a load of work. He's up for it though, and the end product is stellar. It's like stateline.org, but with a more ground-based viewpoint, and even further niched. Those Outflanked Democrats Wondering How to Catch Up in Media Wars could catch a serious clue from what Kos has developed.
What Kos has done is to extend the most valuable part of what went on here during the 2002 cycle; which is just fantastic, especially considering how the terrain is currently shifting.
The only serious impact that CFR seems to have, is shift the monetary funding epicenter from DC to the state political machines. This will have many repercussions, and it's tough to tell what the end result will be-- it probably differs from state to state. But as far as campaigns and elections go, one result will be that the DC-based pundits whom rely on the DC-based party structures for information, will become further removed from the action. This will be in tandem with the state party infrastructures gaining a much stronger presence in federal elections.
If Kos can manage the spectrum of contributors with an steady keel, while upping the quality of informed contributors, PSR ought to be able and ride the crest of this shift in power, empowering grassroots political reporting in a way it's never been broadcast before-- this is the kind of stuff that the internet was born for accomplishing.
archpundit 1/03/2003 3:49:32 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
King Kaufman will be moving back to San Francisco...
once the St. Louis Bikefed tracks his St. Louis resident ass down for trashing cycling and Lance.
Before a sportswriter dismisses Armstrong, I suggest they should first have to try cycling up L'Alpe d'Huez, and then tell us how cyclists aren't amazing athletes. Sportswriters obviously can't do many of the things that the world's best athletes can do while competing, but whining that something isn't a sport because one is ignorant of the sport isn't much of an argument.
archpundit 1/03/2003 1:02:39 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Despair in the Corner
Via John Cole
At the Corner:
RE: WELCOME TO 2003 [John Derbyshire]
K-Lo: So DC's first baby of the year was born to a lesbian couple. New York's seems to have been to a black single mother. Don't you sometimes feel like giving in to despair?
Now, one can make an argument about the dissolution of the African-American family and how it has hurt poor African-American children especially. In fact, Daniel Moynihan said just such a thing. One can certainly say that raising a child is a difficult process and two parents are better than one. Having been raised in a single family home, I can attest my mother's life would have been much easier with a partner. The problem is Derbyshire doesn't make such an argument, he plays off a stereotype and dehumanizes the wonderous event of the birth of a child.
Worse, he seems to think the race of the mother was important without any context to his language. If one is making a Moynihan type argument race becomes a factor. In the way Derbyshire introduces it, well, it isn't an argument, it is a stereotype. That child deserves the love and hope for the future, not the notion that she is already a burden on the great mind of John Derbyshire.
His comments about the lesbian couple are handled well by John Cole.
archpundit 1/03/2003 11:46:53 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
If the state is going to kill, why shouldn't the public know how
The RiverFront Times covers the secrecy surrounding executions in Missouri. I find such secrecy disturbing because if we are going to kill in the name of the state, shouldn't the citizens understand exactly what they are doing?
(posted on Blog Saint Louis too).
archpundit 1/02/2003 6:28:13 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Take it away Wyoming...
Matt Hale has moved there and left the State of Illinois a better place leaving.
I wonder if he has some extra space for Gordon Baum and Earl Holt.
Update: Upon further reading, only the, ahem, 'church' is going to Wyoming. Hale is staying put.
What I want to know is why in all the biographical information don't they mention how often Matt got beaten up?
archpundit 1/02/2003 3:40:10 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Casmir Pulaski Day largely ignored
The shame that a sham holiday meant as a killer amendment to Martin Luther King Jr Day isn't observed by over 500 School Districts in Illinois.
archpundit 1/02/2003 12:02:55 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Pyrrhic Victories
So let's say you think you are being mistreated by the local paper and want to call it to their attention. You are an important person so you call the public editor and then proceed to give him a lecture about that mistreatment. What happens? You win on the merits and get an agreement that you are correct in print....after a column making fun of you.
Congrats Pat Quinn--your reputation just took another hit. The column is quite interesting in its discussion of a small, but possibly growing movement, to return the Illinois Legislature to having multiple reps from one district.
And an important note to state-wide politicians--don't make fun of small towns. At least don't tell it to a reporter who is going to write about it. I don't find Pinckneyville very interesting either, but I'm not asking for their votes. It's the Pinckneyville Democrat also, not the Bugle. Good going Pat!
archpundit 1/02/2003 11:57:49 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Africa and Terrorism
Yesterday, the Tribune editorialized on the need to support human rights and democracy in the fight against terrorism.
One of the most unstable continents for the near future will be Africa. Between AIDs, war, dictators, and poverty, the continent faces a series of challenges that will be extremely difficult to overcome. America must take a role or we will end up fighting Al Qaeda II in a country ravaged by instability. The Trib's money quote is:
America sends its noblest message to the world when it holds its allies accountable for their human rights records and their commitment to honest government and free enterprise. By tying U.S. support to progress in human rights and economic development, America shows itself to be on the right side of history--the side that tries to find new solutions, not more problems.
One of the most troubling Trent Lott incidents was in '98 when Clinton announced an African AIDs initiative. Lott claimed that there was no real reason for the initiative except to curry favor with African-American voters. I didn't hear this and during an lower level class I was asked about it by a student. I did something unusual and told the student she must have misunderstood Lott and explained there are a lot of strategic reasons for our efforts to reduce AIDs in Africa. This was unusual because in class I rarely tell students they are wrong about some current event unless it is clear. I just couldn't imagine anyone could be so stupid and short-sighted as Lott was being and not be named Jesse Helms (who has come around on the issue a bit).
Anyway, turns out I made my student feel bad. Lott really did say it. Once I realized it I blurted out that it had to be one of the stupidest statements I had ever heard and went on to make the argument that instability of the type AIDs could bring to Africa could well lead to the creation of havens for terrorists as we saw in Somalia. Today, I am even more convinced of this argument. Is the administration?
archpundit 1/02/2003 11:34:08 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
And another one is being cleared
The Trib covers another inmate who seems to be wrongfully convicted. Taylor's case was highlighted in the amazing series of reports concerning Cops and Confessions. Taylor was in jail when the murder took place. Despite this evidence he is still in prison, though Dick Devine's office is looking into the case.
Perhaps Chicago could lower its murder rate if it actually put the people doing the killing in prison and not some schmuck walking down the street.
Does anyone remember one of the last scenes in The Hunt for Red October? Jeffrey Pelt is wrapping up issues with the Russian Ambassador when the ambassador mentions another sub is missing. Pelt replies something like, "Ambassador, you have lost ANOTHER SUBMARINE!" and shakes his head. Pretty much the entire Cook County Attorney's office has to feel like this every time the Trib calls.
Of course, in DuPage County they just claim they are victims of a press witchhunt.
archpundit 1/02/2003 11:23:04 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
You Want Gordon Baum, you got Gordom Baum
Well you will whenever the damn RiverFront Times posts the story on-line. There is a brief profile of Baum by Jim Nesbitt. There isn't much new, but it is a good backgrounder.
For previous CofCC, Baum, Bugel, and Metro South Citizen's Council see:
Here
Here
Here
Here
Here
Here
Here
Here
Update: The RFT finally has the Baum story posted. Unfortunately the title is more interesting than the content. Mainly rehashed information.
archpundit 1/02/2003 10:58:23 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
Why isn't anyone noticing the asbestos story?
I'm beginning to wonder why the asbestos story hasn't broken to a larger audience. Sherffius sums up the issue quite well. Why is it bad to keep information from the public?
archpundit 1/02/2003 9:56:11 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
The Betty Files
It seems that the dedicated mother, has been spending some time at the slots.
Who says US Attorneys don't have a sense of humor:
The extent of her gambling "suggests that Loren-Maltese's quality time commitment to her daughter has been substantially limited by Loren-Maltese's quality time commitment to casino gambling," the prosecutors' filing states.
archpundit 1/01/2003 11:40:20 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Give the Trib the Nobel
First, let me say, I love TalkLeft--it is one of the finest blogs on the web and one of the few that I learn something from nearly every day.
I have a problem with George Ryan and I think many opponents of capital punishment have overlooked his sins in making him out to be a folk hero because of the moratorium. I don't particularly care why Ryan has been serious about death penalty reform, but I give him the benefit of the doubt and assume it is because he sees the horror of a system that doesn't work.
Working with the kindest assumption above, it makes his behavior all the worse in the license for bribes scandal. The license for bribe scandal has two elements. The primary element is that patronage workers were pressured to kick back to the then Secretary of State's campaign to be governor. To raise the money workers accepted bribes for licenses from various driving schools and for low numbered Illinois License Plates. Here is a decent summary.
One of the Commercial Driver's Licenses sold for a bribe went to a truck driver who could speak English about as well as he could drive a truck. Unfortunately, he couldn't do either. To get a CDL in Illinois one must have at least minimal ability to read and write in English.
While driving through southern Wisconsin, the driver, Ricardo Guzman, had a tail light assembly that was about to fall off of the truck. Several other truckers attempted to contact him by radio and by sight, but because of the language barrier, Guzman didn't notice. The assembly fell off, and the debris hit the Willis family minivan which burst into flames killing their six children and badly burning the parents Scott and Janet. Three others died in accidents with truck drivers who had illegally obtained Illinois CDLs.
An investigation followed. A close aid to Ryan, Scott Fawell, blocked the internal investigation, lied under oath, and had records destroyed. Over the last week we found out what everyone suspected, Ryan knew.
Not only did the above occur, but state workers were paid state wages to do campaign work. While this is nothing new in Illinois, the abuse of it in this case was quite extensive. Additionally, Fawell was in the business of encouraging stalking horse candidates.
Going by the standard Jeralynn cites from the Nobel Prize page " "those who, during the preceding year, "shall have conferred the greatest benefit on mankind," George Ryan has subverted the honest working of democracy in Illinois, tampered with the judicial system and led to the loss of innocent lives solely for the pursuit of higher office. To this day he refuses to meet with Scott Willis even in private and has been quite indignant at suggestions he was responsible.
The moratorium is a great step, but given his other actions, George Ryan has no business receiving the Nobel Peace Prize. While all individuals should be judged by more than their worst actions, George Ryan shows contempt for democracy and that is to me, contempt for mankind. What puzzles me is how a man can see the humane reasons for death penalty reform, but be oblivious to the havoc his actions caused to the political system and the Willis children.
Give the Nobel to those muckrakers who brought the issue to the forefront--The Northwestern Center on Wrongful Convictions or even the Chicago Tribune.
I oppose blanket commutation, but only on the pragmatic grounds that the outrage that would follow would doom any reform efforts in the next session and probably forever. ]
Update: First, a couple minor grammar errors fixed--and change to death penalty reform in the third from the bottom paragraph.
In comments, Jeralynn suggests Barry Scheck for the prize which I think is a fantastic idea, though I still prefer Northwestern's clinic.
archpundit 1/01/2003 11:32:01 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Why do Arabs have so little credibility?
I don't know. I do know why some law professors do--this one in particular seems to draw generalizations a bit far instead of specifying sub-groups of an entire ethnicity. Sort of like the majority used to in Mississippi to use his example. Mississippi has come far (still a long way to go)--maybe Reynolds could join the journey.
archpundit 1/01/2003 3:53:22 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
Nobel Peace Prize Nomination for G-Ry
I was outraged after getting this from Ross the Bloviator (scroll down--when I tried the archive link I got an unfamiliar foreign language that looked like it was from Northern Europe). Eric Zorn of the Chicago Tribune has sugggested this before (Scroll down again-no place holders--Feb 19)
Ross actually expresses my outrage pretty damn well so I'll save my sanctimony for now. However, let me remind everyone of the 6 dead Willis children George Ryan is responsible for due to the license for bribes scandal. The SOS office has long been a place of questionable ethics, but G-Ry took it to a new low. G-Ry won't even meet with the Willis family now and has been incredibly offensive when the father attempted to talk to him in the past.
The moratorium is great. I think Illinois First is fantastic. I think G-Ry deserves to rot in prison, not be awarded a prize.
Quick Update: Go read the Bloviator's other posts as well. He has done an excellent job on disecting the complex issues regarding vaccine liability and his posts on Smallpox vaccinations are first rate. And he spells a lot better than me.
archpundit 1/01/2003 3:03:03 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
